As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here commentary from Jon Markman’s past articles at MSN Money through early 2010 and from his “Speculations” column at MarketWatch.com since May 2010. Jon Markman is the founder of Markman Capital Insight LLC, which “provides unbiased, unvarnished and up-to-the-minute information, analysis and leadership on the equity and credit markets to thousands of customers worldwide.” There are many additional, older articles by Jon Markman at MSN Money, but the search capabilities there make them very difficult to extract and organize. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Jon Markman considers a wide range of fundamental and technical inputs in assessing the prospects for U.S. equities, with recent emphasis on monetary and credit conditions.
- Jon Markman’s sample size is very small, so confidence in the measurement of his accuracy is very low.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Jon Markman via MSN Money and MarketWatch.com | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 8/1/12 | My cycle work suggests that the market will shake off its blues for a short while this week… Then after a brief respite, we could quite possibly see another decline into the first or second week of August, much as seen last year. Probably not -15% in two weeks, but enough to catch your attention. …If there is such a slide into the first part of August, it’s hard to imagine that the Federal Reserve won’t crank up its war machine… Judging from past experience, there should be a first leg up in the second week of August, and then a second, possibly stronger boost, in late August. If so, the fourth year of the presidential cycle of Democratic presidents suggests that the upswing could carry stocks higher into October and possibly into the election… | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 22.9% | – |
| 2/22/12 | …a re-rating of PEs stemming from a new calm in Europe will boost the shares of all companies… | 0.6% | 2.6% | -3.1% | 11.7% | + |
| 12/19/11 | If even just a couple of these items this 2012 fear factor list prove accurate, then the S&P 500 will most likely re-test the October low at 1075 and quite possibly re-test the 2010 lows at 1010. I suspect at least 1075 will be tested. | 5.0% | 9.1% | 16.6% | 18.4% | – |
| 10/20/11 | My expectation is tha…the stock rally we’re seeing now is a gift…ahead of a renewed collapse. … If the past two examples provide any guidance, the current rally has a shot at rising to the 1,230 to 1,280 level of the S&P 500 before turning tail. | 5.7% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 16.3% | – |
| 8/18/11 | …figure it’s 10 minutes ’til sunset for the bulls. …you can make a very good case for the idea that stocks will slump into early September, then get a boost from the announcement of QE3 and run higher through the autumn… | 1.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 23.9% | – |
| 6/30/11 | …keep some exposure to the equity markets until, possibly, the middle of July, when earnings optimism typically peaks. After that, prepare for a long, hot summer, and not of love. | 1.8% | -2.6% | -12.8% | 4.0% | + |
| 6/9/11 | Trading could be rough the rest of the week, and perhaps much of the summer, as investors adjust to the idea that “Helicopter Ben” may keep his money distribution machine parked for awhile. Prepare for a bumpy landing. | -1.7% | 2.4% | -7.0% | 2.7% | + |
| 5/6/11 | Credit…is leading equities up in 2009-2011 — and that will continue most likely for the next several years. …If stocks were to perform as well as bonds since October 2007, the S&P 500’s level at that time, which was roughly 1,550, would need to rise by 34%. Voila, that would bring it toward the 2,000 level…it’s not outrageous. It would only take two 22% years for the S&P 500 to get there, with compounding. | -0.2% | -4.1% | -10.5% | 1.1% | – |
| 12/13/10 | …the return of hostile takeovers and one-day IPO doubles heralds a return of the bull market to Wall Street. …the smell of greed is in the air, raising the curtain on a new year likely to brim with excess and more excess. | 0.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | -2.3% | – |
| 10/26/10 | My expectation is that…the full amount [of quantitative easing] contemplated is…as much as $2 trillion. …If this is the case, then stocks have in no way discounted the full effect of the next round of quantitative easing — and that leaves the bullish case for 2011 wide open. | 0.7% | 1.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | – |
| 10/14/10 | I think equities have more than a fighting chance to shock skeptics and rip higher… | 0.5% | 2.2% | 9.6% | 2.3% | + |
| 9/21/10 | …any weakness that emerges in the coming week or two or three should be bought, and if there is no weakness then we should buy breakouts…the high-probability case is that a decent recovery lies on the horizon… | 0.7% | 3.4% | 9.1% | -0.9% | + |
| 5/22/10 | Stocks will almost certainly rebound continue to rally in some fashion in the next few days, perhaps as high as 1,175 on the S&P 500 Index…weak advance followed by a stunning decline is the more likely scenario…even an early summer collapse could be reversed by autumn, and stocks may surprisingly have a shot at making new highs by winter. | -0.3% | 1.7% | -0.2% | 23.0% | 0 |
| 1/28/10 | …the next stretch of activity for U.S. stocks is much more likely to resemble a restless snooze plagued by bad dreams than it is the easygoing stroll we’ve enjoyed since March of last year. | -2.0% | 2.9% | 9.9% | 18.6% | – |
| 11/11/09 | …the credit bull market that started in the spring will drag stocks along, kicking and screaming… | 1.0% | 0.7% | -1.8% | 9.0% | + |
| 10/2/09 | This is what a bull market looks like… Imagine a replay of last winter, except in reverse. | 4.5% | 1.7% | 8.8% | 13.1% | + |
| 9/14/09 | Dow 14,000? Maybe not next week. But in three years? Not a problem. | 1.5% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | – |
| 8/21/09 | The new bull cycle…is not a mirage or a Trojan horse or a joke — and you will be no more successful in denying it exists than you would be in declaring the Earth flat… | 0.3% | 4.4% | 8.2% | 2.8% | + |
| 7/31/09 | …you can probably count on an advance for the rest of the year even if it’s punctuated with more 10% to 15% corrections such as the one just seen in June. | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 14.2% | + |
| 5/1/09 | …with central banks pumping money into the global financial arteries at a breathtaking pace, we’re now likely headed back. …It’ll be bumpy but exciting. | 5.9% | 7.7% | 12.4% | 32.9% | + |
| 4/23/09 | Personally, I’m hoping we dodge the bullet. But professionally and practically, I’m keeping the flak jacket on and the crash helmet at hand. | 2.5% | 4.1% | 12.0% | 38.9% | – |
| 3/17/09 | Enjoy the respite and the short-term gains, but recognize that bears are not sleeping — they’re reloading. | 3.6% | 11.2% | 18.7% | 49.1% | – |
| 2/18/09 | …there will be plenty of time to take advantage of the next bull market soon after it begins…there’s still no need to be a hero and jump the gun. | -3.0% | -0.6% | 15.4% | 40.5% | + |
| 12/22/08 | Though we could certainly see a classic bear market rally of as much as 25% over the next month or two…, after that it looks like the Fed’s efforts are aimed not at full recovery but at smoothing the country’s glide path to a slower-growth, lower-debt world. | 2.2% | -4.6% | -7.5% | 29.2% | – |
| 12/12/08 | In 2009, final lows will come at 550 to 700… | 0.9% | -4.2% | -14.3% | 26.1% | + |
| 10/13/08 | Stocks are safe again — for now… Stocks should see double-digit percentage gains in the short term. | -4.8% | -10.4% | -13.3% | 9.3% | – |
| 8/22/08 | …once the Dow Jones industrials climb to around 12,000 by early fall, watch out below. | -0.7% | -8.0% | -37.6% | -20.4% | 0 |
| 7/24/08 | The recent updraft is probably an illusion. There’s no indication the bear market has ended and plenty of evidence it has a long way to fall yet. | 1.2% | 3.2% | -28.4% | -21.8% | + |
| 5/7/08 | Short-term rallies and wishful thinking have buyers ready to pounce, but the end of the credit mess isn’t yet here. | 0.8% | -2.6% | -8.1% | -34.9% | + |
| 4/3/08 | Bulls can probably push the market an additional 6% higher, to around 1,450 on the S&P 500 Index, but then look for bears to lock ‘n’ load for their next round of mayhem. | -0.6% | 2.8% | -6.2% | -39.0% | + |
| 3/27/08 | …I am happy to rescind my blanket sell recommendation, as the worst of the threat has likely passed… Indeed, we could be coming into one of the most ideal periods for long-term investors… | 3.3% | 5.4% | -0.9% | -40.6% | – |
| 3/13/08 | …smart investors can avoid the worst of any train wreck ahead by unloading most stocks…soon… On a rebound toward the 1,350-to-1,400 level of the S&P 500 Index, consider exiting shares of all but the strongest, most creditworthy companies. This bear market is likely not ending soon… | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | -40.8% | + |
| 2/29/08 | …enjoy the rally for a few more weeks, but be prepared for a new leg down by the time second-quarter redemption requests hit hedge funds and banks announce their next round of write-downs. | -2.8% | 3.0% | 5.1% | -46.4% | + |
| 1/4/08 | …the best opportunities to make money on the downside will come as those levels are breached and a great sucking sound takes the two indexes down to 1,250 and 11,500 or below [in 2008]. | -0.8% | -5.3% | -2.9% | -35.8% | + |
| 2/28/07 | …my guess is that the plunge was more like a natural blow-off in an uptrend than the start of a much bigger decline. | -1.1% | 1.1% | 7.9% | -5.4% | + |
| 1/4/07 | The S&P 500 will end 2007 at 1,602, up 13%. | 0.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | -2.0% | – |
