We evaluate here the market timing advice of Jason Kelly since late 2001. Jason Kelly is the author of the “Neatest Little Guide” series of financial books, The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Jason Kelly’s style might be characterized as intermediate-cycle Buffet-like (patience awaiting intermediate-term value), focused on entry and exit points for a few stocks in the context of overall market climate. He sometimes buys, sells and rebuys the same stocks.
- Mr. Kelly looks to buy (sell) during states of maximum gloom (euphoria) stemming from what he regards as superficial indicators. Seasonal trends are an important consideration for him.
- Jason Kelly’s forecast sample is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
See Jason Kelly’s article “Stock Market Timing” for his own thoughts on this subject. See also his comments on this evaluation.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Jason Kelly via jasonkelly.com | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 11/5/12 | Just getting past the uncertainty of the election should see stocks regain their footing and continue higher, no matter who wins. | -2.6% | -0.6% | 6.6% | 23.3% | + |
| 1/30/12 | …we’re about to get another push higher on January Effect cheer and other exuberance… | 2.4% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 13.9% | + |
| 5/23/11 | Several factors suggest that a market breather is in order. The effect of stimulus is wearing off… Thus, we’re ramping up our defense. | 2.1% | -2.3% | -14.7% | 0.3% | + |
| 12/13/10 | …[is] too late to join the stock market rally[?] I don’t think so. We’ve come a long way since the end of summer, but there’s a lot going for the market that I expect to carry it for a while. | 0.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | -2.3% | + |
| 10/30/10 | No matter the outcome in the Senate nor the majority’s margin in the House…[t]he impact on stocks should be an upward pressure on the market. …the immediate aftermath of the party of no becoming the party in power has been and will be good for stocks. | 3.3% | 1.8% | 8.6% | 4.5% | + |
| 2/4/10 | …the market is hitting a rough patch here, and…it would be wise to guard profits… | 1.4% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 24.1% | – |
| 8/4/09 | …I suggest setting trailing stops to guard profits…as we poke our heads into the stratosphere of overbought… The economy is not as good as the rising market makes it look. …The market’s rise since March has retraced about a third of the bear so far, and that’s standard for bear market bounces. | -1.1% | -1.1% | 3.0% | 11.5% | – |
| 5/5/09 | We’re pulling money off the table… | 0.5% | 4.3% | 10.9% | 22.9% | – |
| 2/24/09 | Conditions are wonderfully oversold here, and I expect a countertrend rally soon. | -9.9% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 42.9% | + |
| 2/9/09 | …open a hedge against another leg lower in the market. | -9.3% | -17.1% | 6.8% | 24.0% | + |
| 1/9/09 | “Do you think this is the start of the next bull market?” No way. |
-4.5% | -7.1% | -3.8% | 28.7% | + |
| 10/29/08 | Don’t let this phenomenal moment in economic history get away. Consider how you can get your fair share from cheap stock prices for the long haul… | 2.4% | -3.6% | -9.1% | 12.1% | – |
| 10/8/08 | …start working your mindset away from how awful it’s been to the idea that capitulation and despondence are the current stages of the game, and that the next smart move will be to buy. …Get your greedy hat out and get ready. | -7.8% | -8.1% | -7.9% | 9.3% | – |
| 8/21/08 | I would put buying on hold, and consider setting stops under profits you made in the summer rally. There’ll be a better chance to buy later. | 1.8% | -5.5% | -32.8% | -19.5% | + |
| 7/7/08 | Nobody ever knows the exact bottom. You’re always going to be a little early or a little late, depending on how you approach the analysis. In other words, the best you should hope for is to get close. The numbers now say that we’re close for the near term. | -1.9% | 2.6% | -11.0% | -29.5% | + |
| 4/25/08 | “…we will do better from here on, and that by far the worst is behind us. …it makes sense to allocate some capital to the greedy side of that pendulum, and that means putting cash to work in equities.” The Kelly Letter agrees… | 0.7% | -0.9% | -10.4% | -37.5% | – |
| 4/1/08 | …this is a time for building positions, adding money to the market, setting yourself up to benefit from higher prices to come. | -0.3% | 2.9% | -6.7% | -39.1% | – |
| 3/23/08 | Fluctuation is what stocks do best. When they’ve fluctuated downward as much as they have, it’s time to buy…that’s why we’re buying. | -2.0% | 1.9% | -0.5% | -39.7% | – |
| 3/16/08 | Don’t short, don’t hedge. Don’t sell what you already own. Look to buy during this time. The reason I can’t say to just wade right in and buy with all you’ve got is that we don’t know how many more Broken Bears are waiting in the wings. …I would feel much more comfortable buying now if we’d seen a selling climax to an even lower level on huge volume, extreme readings on the MACD and relative strength, and a few more big bank failings. It seems that all of that could lie dead ahead, and that the difference between buying now and buying in a couple of weeks could be significant. The best way to take advantage of the search for a bottom is by moving gradually. Buy in thirds if you’re nervous, in halves if you’re not. | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | -38.6% | + |
| 3/7/08 | We’re not at bottom yet. I’m long-term enthusiastic but short-term cautious. | -0.4% | 5.6% | 8.6% | -44.2% | + |
| 2/6/08 | We’re still in a down market. …In the short term, I’m not [bullish]. The Kelly Letter has been setting limit prices low to catch bargains on spikes down, and we still have buying to do. That means I’m expecting lower prices before we see higher… | 3.1% | -2.5% | 5.0% | -34.4% | 0 |
| 1/28/08 | …the bargain prices that the market has served up to start the new year are much appreciated. It’s hard to go wrong buying stocks this cheap. | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | -37.6% | + |
| 1/14/08 | Stocks will be fine once we get through this volatility. People taking advantage of current bargains will be rewarded before too long. | -7.5% | -3.5% | -6.2% | -40.4% | – |
| 1/7/08 | Stocks are reasonably priced. The earnings yield of the S&P 500 is 40% higher than the yield on the 10-Year Treasury. In all six other periods when stocks were this cheap compared to bonds, the market was higher one year later. | 0.0% | -6.3% | -3.1% | -35.8% | – |
| 12/22/07 | The market wants lower rates right now, not in a few months. That impatience will sweat volatility everywhere you look until rates get where the market wants them. …The short term will remain rocky while we wait for the Fed to catch up, but there’s hope on its heels. | -3.3% | -11.1% | -10.4% | -41.7% | + |
| 11/26/07 | Let’s not give up on a rosy medium term just yet. | 4.7% | 6.5% | -1.8% | -36.9% | + |
| 10/28/07 | Get ready for more gains. | -2.5% | -4.7% | -11.6% | -38.1% | – |
| 10/21/07 | We have weakness, so now’s the time to get into the market if you haven’t already…the ladder is still in place and the climbing will resume. | 2.3% | -4.4% | -13.0% | -41.8% | – |
| 10/15/07 | I expect 3Q earnings growth and forecasts of good 4Q earnings to keep this rally going. …For the time being…it’s better to own stocks than avoid them. | -2.7% | -4.4% | -8.6% | -38.9% | – |
| 10/7/07 | I am still bullish…the market is not done yet. …you should ignore the bears…this is a time to be getting in — not out — of the market. | -0.2% | -2.1% | -8.8% | -41.4% | – |
| 9/30/07 | Don’t fear a calamity in October. If we get a sell-off, it’ll be a good time for late-comers to join the party that will see stocks higher in the medium term. …This is a time to be invested. | 0.4% | -1.0% | -4.4% | -28.0% | – |
| 9/23/07 | …if you haven’t put your money to work yet, you should fight the fear and invest. | 1.9% | 0.1% | -3.8% | -20.3% | – |
| 9/16/07 | …now is the time to be positioning your money for an end-of-year surge higher. …I’m unequivocal about this being the right time to put money into the market to benefit from strength ahead. There will be good and bad days, but the medium-term trend will be up. …The end of this year will be strong. | 2.8% | 4.2% | 0.8% | -18.3% | – |
| 9/10/07 | Now, we’re at the end of that medium term, and I’m changing my outlook. I think we’re in for a little more downside, but that we’ll be heading higher in the medium term. | 1.7% | 7.8% | 3.8% | -14.0% | + |
| 8/29/07 | We’re getting the sale I expected…but it’s not over yet. …the wait goes on. | 1.0% | 4.3% | -2.4% | -12.7% | + |
| 8/15/07 | …this is no disaster. The stock market is not finished. We’re not seeing the front edge of a storm that will demolish all we’ve built over the years. We probably have further downside ahead, but it will be followed by up, and we’ll still be standing. Smart investors are watching for good entry prices on stocks they’ve wanted to own… | 4.1% | 5.5% | 2.3% | -9.1% | 0 |
| 7/8/07 | …I remain cautious over the medium term. | 1.2% | -3.6% | 0.6% | -18.2% | + |
| 6/24/07 | This is not the end of the bull market. It’s an adjustment lower along the greater path higher, and should be used as a buying opportunity. I’ll keep watching…for the right time to buy, and others, too. On a recovery, I will look for a time to open a hedge position to protect our portfolio from falling prices. | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | -14.3% | + |
| 5/20/07 | All in all, my forecast of a rising market in the short term followed by a falling one in the medium term seems to be on track. I’ll be looking to get limit orders in place under some of our individual positions, and will consider opening a hedge position. | -0.5% | -0.8% | -5.2% | -8.6% | + |
| 4/30/07 | This pace will surely slow down. …I think we’re in for a little more upside, but that we’ll be heading lower in the medium term. | 1.7% | 3.2% | -1.6% | -4.6% | + |
| 3/26/07 | If you missed this chance, don’t worry, there will be more. There will probably be more this year. | -0.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | -8.5% | + |
| 3/4/07 | …I consider this to be a generally good time to cherry-pick stocks at low prices. This is not a new bear market… We’re probably in for a little more downside before turning up again, but nothing too devastating. | 2.4% | 4.6% | 11.8% | -5.1% | + |
| 2/4/07 | The market will present some excellent buying opportunities in volatile months, but will rise overall for the year. | -0.9% | -3.8% | 4.1% | -7.6% | + |
| 11/27/06 | I’m bullish. We could get a sideways or slightly down market in the near-term… you should use such an event to put more money to work in the stock market… This is a time to be getting in, not out. | 2.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 7.2% | + |
| 11/20/06 | …spending a little time going sideways or slightly down would not be a surprise. Any such short-term weakness means BUY. | -1.0% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 0.4% | + |
| 11/13/06 | …the market’s healthy underlying tone…should keep the bull running. Short-term downdrafts are a distinct possibility. Buy into them. The longer-term trend is up. | 1.2% | 2.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | + |
| 11/6/06 | If you’ve been waiting for a pullback to put more money to work, now’s your chance. We may get a little more short-term downside, but in general we’re in an upward-moving market and you should be buying. Even if you don’t buy something…at least remain firmly invested. Do not get scared out of the market by talk of recession. Use dips to add to positions or buy new positions at bargain prices. | 0.3% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | + |
| 10/21/06 | I’ve been calling for an end of year rally since the beginning of the year…we’re looking to get new [positions] going. | 0.1% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 11.5% | + |
| 9/18/06 | Part of my forecast from the beginning of the year, however, was for an end of year recovery. It’s looks to me like the recovery has already begun, and I’m putting more money to work immediately. | 0.4% | 3.2% | 7.9% | 15.5% | + |
| 9/15/06 | The market doesn’t feel right, I’ll tell you that. It feels that something’s got to give. It feels that we should go down before we go up. …Maybe there’s just a wee chance of my getting a short-term dip buying chance ahead of a longer-term tech rally. | -0.4% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 15.1% | + |
| 9/10/06 | What we should all hope for…is a short-term increase in oil prices and one more rate hike to drive the stock market way down. Then, we’ll pounce on firesale stock prices. After that, we should hope that oil prices drop, the economy gets going again, the Fed takes a long break, and stocks rise into the new year. That’s what I want, and what I’m prepared for. | 1.7% | 4.1% | 8.3% | 14.2% | – |
| 9/5/06 | A cautious stance looks like a good idea. …I’m ready to pounce on cheap prices with a chest full of cash. | 0.0% | 2.8% | 6.4% | 10.5% | – |
| 8/29/06 | …remain net long but with a tactical hedge in place against a September downdraft…we’ll close the hedge at a profit and use the proceeds to buy…for the end-of-year rally. | -0.3% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 14.2% | – |
| 8/21/06 | I continue to urge caution and patience. The best time to buy prior to the year-end rally is probably yet to come. | 0.3% | 2.1% | 7.9% | 14.0% | – |
| 8/12/06 | My hedge against a falling market is up a mere 1% so far, but that should increase as the market grinds lower before recovering in an end-of-year rally. | 2.3% | 3.9% | 8.7% | 14.0% | – |
| 8/5/06 | …remain cautious in the short-term, poised to buy shares on weakness and happy to have a hedge in place against a market slide. …Keep your limit orders in place. The sale season isn’t over yet. …lower averages before the end-of-year rebound… | -0.6% | 1.9% | 7.2% | 13.9% | – |
| 7/26/06 | …we’re in for more trouble ahead…weakness in August and September. …I’m looking to open [a] hedge at a high point…before the Nasdaq begins sinking again. I’m thrilled to see the high point coming into view. …You still have time to open the hedge position… Trust me, when technology gets moving again, it’ll blow your hair back. You don’t want to miss this chance. | 0.8% | 2.2% | 8.6% | 14.7% | – |
| 7/13/06 | …we’re in for rougher times ahead…the market should take a turn higher at the end of the year and into 2007. | 0.6% | 2.0% | 8.9% | 24.5% | 0 |
| 6/11/06 | I expect a rally in early summer, a sell-off in Aug/Sept, and an end-of-year rally into 2007. We’re still invested for that scenario. …I missed this downdraft. | 0.3% | 1.8% | 5.1% | 24.0% | – |
| 6/7/06 | …we’re going to see a rally, then a slump in Aug/Sept, then another rally to year-end. | -2.1% | 0.7% | 4.5% | 18.9% | – |
| 5/28/06 | I’m sticking with my forecast for strength in early summer, trouble in August/September, and a rally at the end of the year. | 0.3% | -1.1% | 2.8% | 22.2% | – |
| 5/21/06 | We look ready for an oversold bounce during the remainder of May. …selling should end by May 23 and…the market should rise to new highs by the end of June. | -0.2% | -0.8% | 3.2% | 20.1% | – |
| 5/8/06 | …we’ll see a significant rally as the market senses the end of tightening. Shortly after that, we should get a summer crunch as oil prices rise and the rate increases put a damper on earnings…expect a major correction in August/September… There seems to be no need yet to rush for the exits ahead of a summer correction. | -2.3% | -5.2% | -3.4% | 13.5% | – |
| 5/1/06 | If my forecast of an August or September drop prove true, then the worst six months will continue their tradition. After that, I expect things to improve. | 1.5% | -2.7% | -2.0% | 15.4% | – |
| 4/24/06 | …my forecast [is for] a down market in late summer or early fall. We’ll begin preparing for it in June and July. Prior to the sell-off, I expect a rally at the conclusion of Fed rate increases. | -0.2% | -3.9% | -5.2% | 14.2% | – |
| 4/10/06 | In June, the Fed either declines to raise rates or does so but indicates that it’s the last time for a while. That brings a broad relief rally that lasts a few weeks. Then, the steadily declining earnings reports — which I discussed in December and that started last quarter — begin to weigh on people, and they also notice that interest rates at or above 5% are putting a drag on the economy. That’s just in time for the traditional summer slump in August and the market could give us a plump buying opportunity before the Fall technology rally kicks off in October/November. | 0.9% | 2.0% | -2.3% | 13.3% | – |
| 3/26/06 | The forecast calls for continued cloudy interest rate skies. | -0.3% | 0.3% | -4.4% | 9.2% | + |
| 2/26/06 | …we’re going to see a buying opportunity in late summer or early fall before a rally through year-end and into early 2007. Late summer is about the time that the realization that second-half earnings will slow to single digits will kick in. | -1.2% | -0.1% | -1.6% | 7.2% | + |
| 2/21/06 | [Before] the end of the year, …we’ll see a significant market correction. …We often get a summer/fall panic before a year-end rally. | -0.2% | 1.7% | -1.2% | 13.0% | + |
| 2/12/06 | …the odds favor the market interpreting [Bernake’s] presentation [to Congress] as a harbinger of two more rate hikes ahead, rather than just one. If so, the markets are likely to continue treading water or sink a little. | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 15.3% | – |
| 1/30/06 | I anticipate that we’re going to see a valley pattern with a strong beginning to the year, a weak middle, and a strong end. That would make midyear a ripe hunting ground for bargains. | -1.6% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 12.7% | + |
| 1/23/06 | …corporate profits are bound to slow. …Now the reports are coming in, they’re showing an earnings slowdown, and prices are reacting predictably. | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 12.5% | – |
| 1/16/06 | It does seem prudent…to curb our enthusiasm for this great start to the new year… | -1.3% | -0.2% | 0.2% | 10.9% | + |
| 12/19/05 | You don’t have to worry about the stock market. Ignore the naysayers, everything is fine. | -0.3% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 12.6% | + |
| 12/11/05 | I still expect that we’ll move higher before year-end. | 0.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 13.1% | – |
| 12/2/05 | …we’re reaping the rewards. However, it’s not over yet. | -0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 11.7% | + |
| 11/20/05 | As economic and inflation fears subside, investors will pay more attention to valuation and earnings growth. That will allow the traditional year-end animal spirits to run loose, and is why I expect the rally to continue through New Year’s. | 0.2% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 11.6% | + |
| 11/5/05 | Our winter rally is under way… Your patience over the past two difficult months is about to pay off. | 0.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 12.7% | + |
| 10/22/05 | I’ve been targeting November for the start of a good winter rally. We look to be on track for that to play out… There are brighter days ahead and now is a time that screams for new investment money. | 0.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 15.8% | + |
| 10/15/05 | …the strength of the economy remains clear and I continue to believe we’re heading into a solid winter rally. …we’ll probably be able to pick up more investments before the winter rally starts. And it will start. …keep yourself in buy mode. | 0.8% | 3.3% | 7.8% | 14.9% | + |
| 10/8/05 | …we’re in the middle of a sustained portfolio-building effort. I’ve been trying to pick up investments on the cheap that look poised for outperformance over what I still expect to be a strong winter rally… The fundamentals of the American economy remain strong, and we’re set to see a positive earnings season just ahead… There’s probably more weakness ahead before we get to a solid winter rally. | 0.2% | 2.6% | 7.5% | 14.8% | + |
| 10/4/05 | Conditions looked almost exactly this way a year ago and we got a strong November-December rally. I think we’re going to see that again this year, which is why I’m buying aggressively. | -2.4% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 11.1% | + |
| 9/30/05 | The market is still basing… I’m still holding out for cheaper prices in telecom, alternative energy, and semiconductors. | -2.7% | -1.8% | 2.1% | 9.9% | + |
| 9/11/05 | In every past megacatastrophe, the estimates [of damage] have come in vastly inflated. …it unduly scares investors away from certain insurance companies that are seen as being dangerously exposed… So, the prices drop. And drop. And drop. What the clear-eyed investor does is sort through the wreckage for the most deeply underpriced strong company. If it is indeed strong, it will survive, rebound, and flourish. | -0.8% | -4.5% | 1.2% | 6.1% | + |
| 8/13/05 | I have more than half of my money in cash, waiting for the lower prices I’ve been wanting for so many months. I think that patience is about to pay off. | -1.0% | -0.5% | -0.2% | 5.2% | + |
| 7/25/05 | I’ve thought from the beginning of the year that clearing August would put us in good position for a second half run to higher ground. So far, though, we haven’t had the cheaper prices that I expected to presage that move higher. I’m still holding off, as we’re not out of summer yet… | 0.5% | -0.9% | -4.2% | 2.8% | + |
| 7/11/05 | It’s still a time for patience. | 0.1% | 1.0% | -2.3% | 1.9% | + |
| 6/19/05 | I’m toying with the idea of buying puts or shorting something ahead of the sell-off that I expect. I’m very careful about such moves, though, and am quite content to let the urge pass more often than not. | -2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | – |
| 6/13/05 | I’m still treading water for the most part, waiting for cheaper prices. | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | – |
| 6/4/05 | We’ve benefited greatly from this recent, surprisingly strong rally, and it’s time to think about paring back for the hot months and lower prices dead ahead…the dollar and Treasuries are in for a correction… | 0.3% | -0.2% | 2.0% | 5.0% | – |
| 5/23/05 | That hands-off approach is working well now. So enjoy another walk. | -0.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 6.6% | – |
| 5/14/05 | Yes, it looks like a great time to take a walk among spring flowers and forget about the markets for a while. They won’t go anywhere. They’ll still be here when you get back. And I have a hunch they’ll be sporting cheaper prices. | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 8.2% | – |
| 4/3/05 | In preparation for summer’s expected lower stock prices, I’ve been backing out of the market. | 0.4% | -1.3% | 1.3% | 11.5% | – |
| 3/21/05 | The market…appears due for a short-term relief rally, probably this week. | -1.6% | -3.9% | 2.8% | 10.0% | – |
| 3/12/05 | What’s ahead for the market? Probably lower prices… these conditions spell a short-term drop, followed by a lukewarm recovery in late spring, then a significant drop over summer, to be followed by a solid recovery into year-end. | -1.8% | -2.3% | -1.8% | 8.2% | + |
| 3/6/05 | …something feels about to give. | -1.5% | -3.4% | -2.4% | 3.8% | + |
| 2/28/05 | Expect to see oil above $60 about mid-year. That, combined with summer’s usual malaise, should give us the annual bumper crop of cheap stock prices from which to build another profitable winter portfolio. | 1.8% | -1.8% | -0.5% | 7.1% | + |
| 2/22/05 | The market is not looking healthy, and technology looks especially ready to take a breather. | 2.2% | -1.0% | 0.4% | 8.9% | – |
| 2/6/05 | The Bull Is Back… I hope you’re enjoying the dramatic change of sentiment in the market as much as I am. Remember that stuff I said at the beginning of this article about the bad news needing to be brought up? Forget it. …keep the bulk of your money in the reliable Dow. You’ll do fine. | 0.7% | 0.6% | -2.0% | 5.2% | – |
| 1/24/05 | …now might be a good time to get it in the market. This downward slide can’t last forever…we may see higher prices before summer. | 1.5% | 2.3% | -1.0% | 9.5% | + |
| 1/10/05 | Now that the final week of last year and the first week of this year are behind us, we should get back to the regular pace of the winter rally, which is still intact. …I do expect to be selling…sometime before spring, just not yet. Last year the big sales happened in February. This year they could be in March. | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.8% | 8.0% | – |
| 12/6/04 | Ignore the doubters. This winter rally is looking good. | 0.7% | -0.5% | 2.9% | 5.6% | + |
| 11/28/04 | We’re in a holding pattern in front of what I still believe will be a firm rally over the next couple of months. | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 6.0% | + |
| 11/17/04 | It’s not too late, but it’s getting later. Know what you want to buy, know the price you’re willing to pay, and get it when you can. | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.6% | + |
| 11/8/04 | It’s time to build positions for a winter rally in the stock market… Don’t wait too long, though. The market wants to rise. The winter rally is upon is. | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | + |
| 11/3/04 | If you’re not already positioned in stocks that were cheap in the past month or so, it’s too late to get them cheap… | 1.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.7% | – |
| 10/31/04 | What’s a person with money to do? …keep it safe. | 3.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | – |
| 10/20/04 | We may very well be at or near the last opportunity to position your money for a year-end rally. I don’t know how explosive it will be, but I do think we’ll end the year higher than we are now. | 2.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | + |
| 9/20/04 | Negative influences on the market include expensive oil, earnings warnings, rising interest rates, an economy that’s not out of the woods yet, and the ever-present risk of terrorism. They should give us enough volatility in the next couple of weeks to bring cheaper buy prices. | -1.7% | -1.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | + |
| 8/9/04 | The jobs report was awful, oil is expensive, terrorists are plotting a pre-election attack, and we don’t know who the next president will be. These jitters happen periodically in the stock market and are the very reason we get good opportunities to buy at low prices. | 1.3% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 15.4% | + |
| 8/6/04 | Now that Jim Cramer says this is a time to be careful with your money (he’s usually wrong), the employment data is much weaker than expected (people usually overreact), and stocks are already down…, we’re probably right at the lows. | 0.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 15.7% | + |
| 7/26/04 | …this leg down has further to go. The elections have introduced a higher level of uncertainty into the markets. | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 14.1% | – |
| 7/8/04 | There’s little to report in the markets. They’re going lower over the summer… | -0.2% | -4.1% | 2.3% | 9.9% | + |
| 6/8/04 | This is a time to build cash and wait for cheap prices to appear like magic. We’re somewhere in the middle or end of a short-term spike in the market before we enter the summer malaise. This summer promises to be a heavy burden on share prices. | -0.8% | -2.6% | -1.8% | 4.9% | + |
| 5/15/04 | We’re getting some pretty cheap prices right now, which has triggered my attention but not my investment yet. I don’t buy cheap. I buy VERY cheap. | 1.0% | 4.4% | -0.4% | 9.9% | + |
| 11/23/03 | …I believe the market itself in the form of the Dow could do just fine in a falling dollar environment. | 1.4% | 4.0% | 8.7% | 12.0% | + |
| 11/12/03 | The markets have been heading lower and will probably continue that trend over the next few days. | -1.5% | 1.5% | 8.8% | 11.0% | + |
| 9/26/03 | The wheels are falling off the rally bandwagon and it looks like we’re in for a couple of weeks of downward spiral… When the press is wringing its hands about the grim future, I’m buying. When times just can’t get any better, I’m selling… | 3.3% | 3.4% | 9.7% | 11.8% | – |
| 9/6/03 | …a key development is the strengthening economy. So far, it’s a jobless recovery, but a recovery nonetheless and for money on the sidelines that may be just the good news that’s needed to finally sound the all-clear. | -1.6% | 0.7% | 3.7% | 8.9% | + |
| 7/18/03 | I think soon we’ll be back to a hopeless future and tantalizing prices. And then we’ll buy. | 0.5% | 0.6% | 5.4% | 10.4% | + |
| 7/10/03 | The war bounce is getting long in the tooth. Now it’s time to be selective and skeptical. | -0.7% | -1.1% | 5.1% | 12.4% | + |
| 3/12/03 | The endless delays in starting the war are killing stock markets around the world. As planned, my limit orders are kicking in as prices of good companies plunge for no fundamental reason. Already, I have purchased four companies at significantly lower prices than I would have paid just three weeks ago. | 8.7% | 8.4% | 22.5% | 37.3% | + |
| 9/21/02 | …there is a lot of evidence to suggest that the next seven months or so will be good ones. | -2.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 20.3% | + |
| 8/26/02 | The buyer’s paradise that I wrote about on August 2nd is no longer with us… The pressures we face in the economy are not small, and they’re not over… There seems to be a war on the horizon and it happens to be scheduled in the most economically vital part of the world, namely, where the oil is. If Iraq explodes and oil prices crash, stock prices will probably follow. | -7.4% | -11.4% | -1.5% | 5.8% | + |
| 8/2/02 | This market is a buyer’s paradise. Don’t let the gloomy headlines scare you out of a good thing. …First, consider buying Microsoft. | 5.1% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 11.9% | + |
| 9/14/01 | Might I suggest that you do not sell in the coming weeks, but instead look for places to invest new money? | -3.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | -18.8% | + |
