As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the accuracy of Gary Kaltbaum’s outlooks for the overall stock market at TradingMarkets.com, available since May 2005. Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor and nationally syndicated radio commentator who believes his job is “to interpret market action based on price and volume adding in a little bit of sentiment.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Some of Gary Kaltbaum’s commentaries offer no clear market outlook. Those that do tend toward very short-term outlooks, and we grade accordingly.
- His outlooks are often difficult to grade both because they are vague and because market volatility can make very short-term forecasts look both right and wrong.
- During the period covered by this evaluation, Mr. Kaltbaum seems more expectant of bad times than good. He calls bear markets three times (5/11/06, 3/5/07 and 1/7/08).
- The dates on some of Gary Kaltbaum’s commentaries from the selected source “float” at times, such that the dates logged may sometimes be a little older than the dates currently shown in the source data.
- Gary Kaltbaum’s forecast sample is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Gary Kaltbaum via TradingMarkets.com | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 11/22/11 | …I now strongly believe that the recent highs was not just a high but probabilities favor THE high for the recent intermediate-term move off the October 4th lows. | 5.0% | 5.6% | 14.8% | 18.7% | – |
| 9/22/11 | The Next Leg Has Begun… I have no idea how far this leg down goes both in time and price. I just know that the bear continues… | 2.7% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 27.6% | – |
| 9/13/11 | … I think we can rally some. | 2.5% | 2.9% | 7.0% | 25.0% | + |
| 9/5/11 | This is classic bear action. …I have not seen to this date one characteristic of a potential bottom show up. | 0.7% | -1.8% | 6.8% | 23.4% | + |
| 8/24/11 | I believe the market is still in a bear market. It just needs to work off its extended condition to the downside. | 3.5% | -3.5% | 1.3% | 19.8% | – |
| 8/16/11 | I do not think we are out of the ugly just yet. | -2.5% | 1.4% | 6.0% | 18.9% | + |
| 8/8/11 | The market has put in a major top. …Odds do not favor what many are saying that this is just a garden variety correction…any bounce is for selling or shorting for the aggressive. | 7.6% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 25.3% | – |
| 8/3/11 | My best guess remains at the very least, this will turn into something akin to last year in which major averages dropped 15-20% from their highs before turning up. | -11.1% | -4.4% | -0.6% | 10.6% | + |
| 8/1/11 | The markets will react well just to the fact that the fake default will not occur. | -13.0% | -5.8% | -0.2% | 6.1% | – |
| 6/30/11 | …the near-term is that this now very overbought market will soon start spending some time consolidating recent gains before attempting higher prices. I am not in the camp that the market is just going to break out to new highs. | 1.8% | -2.6% | -12.8% | 4.0% | + |
| 6/20/11 | I am still seeing no positives. ,,,When a market is this oversold and can’t bounce, it is a clear negative…it is wise to kick back and not press the issue. …it will only be a matter of time before another leg down occurs and my thoughts on a move down like last year’s 12-20% drop would come to fruition. …there is a better chance of a full-blown bear this time… | 0.1% | 3.7% | -4.9% | 3.7% | + |
| 6/13/11 | Markets are going down…and we may have only seen the beginning as the trust factor remains very low. | 0.5% | 3.6% | -9.2% | 4.5% | – |
| 5/17/11 | I now believe that not only have the commodities embarked on a bear phase but I suspect you will see the rest of the market do the same… | -1.0% | -4.6% | -9.4% | 2.2% | + |
| 3/25/11 | I believe there is a decent chance yesterday’s action constituted a turning of the corner for the market. …the action I am seeing is more than impressive…and until distribution shows up again, giving it the benefit of the doubt. | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 7.0% | + |
| 12/6/10 | …no real complaints. Near-term, a pullback is due…but most patterns are in good shape where, for now, any pullbacks are buyable…if seasonality means anything, December should do fine. | 1.4% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 3.1% | + |
| 10/25/10 | …play it out until the stair steps up stop…the averages are stretched here and due for a pullback…but as of this second, I believe any pullback will be controlled and rotational. | -0.1% | -0.4% | 8.9% | 4.8% | + |
| 9/23/10 | …near term, I think the market has been hitting a wall the past couple of days and is overdue for some pulling in. Don’t be surprised if one occurs. | 1.5% | 5.2% | 11.5% | 3.4% | – |
| 9/9/10 | I would not be surprised to see a pullback in the days ahead. But unless things change, I am looking at pullbacks to be buyable as the weekly charts now show decently strong bottoms in place. …”A” low is in place for now. | 1.9% | 5.5% | 10.8% | 5.3% | + |
| 8/18/10 | Notwithstanding the near term oversold condition that could lead to short term bounces, …this market is in trouble and think defense is the best offense here. | -3.5% | 2.9% | 9.5% | 2.7% | + |
| 8/9/10 | …notwithstanding the fact that market is near term OVERBOUGHT and could pull in, until the market shows distribution again, I am giving it somewhat of the benefit of the doubt…but don’t blink. | -4.3% | -2.6% | 8.3% | -0.6% | – |
| 7/6/10 | …the market was in a confirmed rally [to] be respected until distribution rears its ugly head. Well…in the past few days, just that has happened… | 6.5% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 31.6% | – |
| 6/23/10 | …the market is back in a confirmed rally. …but we will need to see a move above those levels…which I do expect will happen… | -5.6% | 1.0% | 4.4% | 16.2% | – |
| 6/9/10 | …the nascent rally looks to be already over as stiff selling has already taken over. …There is just not much good I can say here. Tops in the market usually take time. This one happened in a nanosecond and as of this second, has not let up. | 5.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 20.4% | – |
| 5/25/10 | …probabilities are decently strong that the recent highs could be the highs of the cycle. The deterioration has been sudden and been strong…too much to ignore. | 2.3% | 0.0% | -0.6% | 23.4% | + |
| 4/21/10 | I suspect we will see some more pullback/backing and filling at this juncture… | -1.2% | -11.1% | -10.2% | 10.9% | + |
| 3/23/10 | I expect a pullback started Friday and expect more in time and price. But… as of this second, it is nothing more than a pullback… | -0.1% | 2.9% | -5.2% | 11.5% | – |
| 3/9/10 | The market is now back in a confirmed rally… Until major averages show distribution again and breach the 50-day average, it is time to try to make hay. | 1.7% | 4.0% | -7.9% | 13.6% | + |
| 2/18/10 | …it is going to be tough as many stocks and sectors are still in rough shape here and at the very least will need a little time to either repair to go meaningfully higher or decide to croak. I am taking it quite slow here. | -0.3% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 21.3% | – |
| 2/3/10 | …bounces are to be sold instead of pullbacks being bought. I do believe the tide has turned and that won’t change easily. | -2.7% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 19.5% | – |
| 1/26/10 | The market has topped for the near-term and probably the intermediate-term. For me, intermediate means up to a quarter. …it is time to sell bounces. | 1.0% | 1.0% | 11.0% | 19.0% | – |
| 11/30/09 | Early warning signs are there. I just don’t think the end is here yet… | 0.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 11.5% | + |
| 11/16/09 | The market experienced a follow through day last week putting the market back into a confirmed rally. Never argue with this important technical characteristic. …I doubt there will be any major “market” problems until the New Year… | -0.3% | 0.0% | -0.9% | 7.9% | + |
| 10/14/09 | The market remains in fine shape. | -1.0% | -0.4% | 4.9% | 8.5% | + |
| 9/15/09 | Overall, market looks great. | 1.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | + |
| 9/1/09 | The big picture remains fine. …don’t let any pullbacks turn you bearish… | 3.5% | 3.2% | 9.8% | 10.7% | + |
| 8/10/09 | …the market remains in fine shape. …I do not see a correction here of any magnitude for the simple reason everything is in gear. I believe there is zero chance of the 940-960 S&P area being breached…any pullbacks are gifts… | -2.7% | 2.6% | 5.9% | 7.6% | + |
| 7/28/09 | The market has spoken up and for me, it is nothing but bullish. …Until distribution shows up in a meaningful fashion, the market gets the benefit… | 2.7% | 5.0% | 10.2% | 12.5% | + |
| 7/6/09 | At the very least, I would be kicking back… The market most definitely needs a goal-line stand here. | 0.3% | 11.9% | 14.6% | 19.1% | – |
| 6/1/09 | …odds now favor a move to the upside and out of this range. | -0.4% | -2.5% | 9.3% | 17.0% | – |
| 5/26/09 | …the market is in pullback mode…it is a buy on pullbacks. | 3.8% | -1.0% | 12.7% | 21.2% | + |
| 4/20/09 | …in the near-term, I just think this whole market needs to pull back… The market will show topping signs before it turns back down. Until those signs occur, you must stay in lockstep with the market. You must ignore bad news… | 3.0% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 45.2% | – |
| 3/31/09 | …I think there is a chance that eventually, markets will move through this resistance eventually for another leg up. | 2.2% | 9.4% | 16.2% | 48.8% | + |
| 2/23/09 | Major indices are now stretched and extended to the downside so we have to believe a bounce could be imminent. But don’t get crazy. The overall condition remains a horror show with very little in the way of leadership. …the major trend both here and abroad remains down. | -5.7% | 8.4% | 19.5% | 48.4% | – |
| 2/17/09 | I remain in 100% cash this year…I remain cautious and now worry we could get another leg down soon… | -2.0% | 0.7% | 11.9% | 40.5% | + |
| 1/20/09 | I remain in 100% cash… | 5.0% | -3.3% | 3.4% | 35.6% | + |
| 1/12/09 | The characteristics of new bull markets are just not there yet. …my advice remains to take your time as this market has no interest in rewarding the long side in a meaningful way. | -7.5% | -4.2% | -1.3% | 32.0% | + |
| 12/22/08 | …I am now tiptoeing in and will add if resistance levels get taken out. | 2.2% | -4.6% | -7.5% | 29.2% | – |
| 11/11/08 | …buyers are not strong enough here…but supply remains. …I believe caution is warranted. | -4.4% | -2.8% | -7.3% | 21.6% | + |
| 10/8/08 | I remain in 100% cash but continue to look for a turn as everyone has now come on over to the dark side. When I see that happening, I am looking for any excuse to get away from them. It has not happened yet, but maybe soon! | -7.8% | -8.1% | -7.9% | 9.3% | + |
| 9/30/08 | This continues to be a classic bear market… I will remain defensive to the maximum… | -14.6% | -20.3% | -25.5% | -12.1% | + |
| 9/11/08 | I continue to see nothing that resembles A BOTTOM in this stock market. | -3.4% | -28.0% | -28.9% | -15.7% | + |
| 9/5/08 | The stock market, both ours and around the world are now starting their next leg down in this bear market. …I am short the markets and I am happy. | 0.8% | -14.9% | -29.9% | -16.8% | + |
| 8/11/08 | …I have actually started getting invested…the market is in a confirmed rally now… I simply will continue to add to my positions if distribution does not rear its ugly head and leadership continues to show up. | -2.0% | -5.6% | -30.7% | -22.4% | – |
| 7/30/08 | The one thing I do at this point is to get off the short side… | 0.4% | 1.3% | -33.9% | -21.9% | + |
| 7/3/08 | You should have learned by now: LOW WILL GO LOWER….FINANCIALS and HOUSING started this mess … and normally the areas that led the way down will go to prices unfathomable. This is continuing to a frightening level. …There are just simply times where it doesn’t pay to play. | -1.9% | -1.1% | -8.1% | -30.4% | + |
| 6/27/08 | I…am staying in cash. …looking forward, one has to worry about earnings as the double wallop of higher prices and lower spending will eat into earnings… | -2.0% | -1.2% | -5.4% | -27.8% | + |
| 6/9/08 | …the DOW and S&P are now breaking down… and possibly badly. …All the bearish areas I have told you about for months are now leading down again… and in nasty fashion. …nothing good happens when oil prices keep going up. | -0.1% | -8.6% | -8.8% | -30.6% | + |
| 5/27/08 | …we now have a major head and shoulders top for just about everything… with the added thrill of a failure at the 200 day moving average. This is a huge negative that indicates to me, notwithstanding oversold bounces, that the recent rally has ended. | -0.6% | -4.6% | -6.7% | -33.7% | + |
| 3/24/08 | By no means am I bullish right now… I just do not want to be in a crowded [bearish] room. | -2.0% | 1.9% | -0.5% | -39.7% | + |
| 3/14/08 | …I believe maybe, possibly a near-term low low has been put in… not unlike the low put in in January. I am not so sure we can ramp out of here but I would not be surprised to have some upside testing. | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | -38.3% | + |
| 3/7/08 | My best guess continues to be that lows will be taken out… do not be surprised if we see a tad bit of panic selling… I have not been the least bit tempted to plunge back in in a meaningful way. | -0.4% | 5.6% | 8.6% | -44.2% | + |
| 2/8/08 | Protect capital! | 1.4% | -0.8% | 4.3% | -37.4% | – |
| 1/28/08 | …here is my next guess based on my studies of characteristics of bear markets. I suspect we’re going to see what I call ABC-type action where the A move was the first move off the low, which may have just ended…the B move is the next move down, which probably started on Friday’s reversal…and the C move which is another rally which may or may not take the market back above recent highs. | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | -37.6% | + |
| 1/21/08 | Expect a…washout will then give the market impetus for a bounce. Just keep in mind, any bounce will be a bounce in a bear market…and should be played carefully or sold into as odds favor, there are going to be more legs to the downside before this is over. | 4.0% | 2.4% | 5.9% | -36.5% | + |
| 1/16/08 | I am literally finding nothing but short set-ups here. It is that bad. | -1.5% | -1.7% | -0.6% | -41.4% | + |
| 1/7/08 | What was a bear market for 70% of the market is now being joined by most everything else…and I am not kidding. Ignore at your own risk. | 0.0% | -6.3% | -3.1% | -35.8% | + |
| 12/18/07 | …I do not believe January will be kind. | 2.9% | -8.9% | -10.8% | -39.0% | + |
| 12/12/07 | I am now worried that the December rally may have already hit a wall. …I am very worried about January… | -2.3% | -4.7% | -11.5% | -41.6% | + |
| 12/3/07 | …I was not so worried about the near-term because we were getting into end-of-year action…if the internals do not improve markedly, January could provide serious problems… | 3.0% | -1.7% | -9.9% | -42.6% | + |
| 11/26/07 | The 200 day average for the S&P is 1483…DOW 13,230. I would suggest to you that the market could bounce back into those areas. I say this because of how extended the bear market sectors have become to the downside. This doesn’t mean a bounce will occur. It means that chances are better that one occurs. | 4.7% | 6.5% | -1.8% | -36.9% | + |
| 11/12/07 | For sure, there is going to be bounces…violent bounces. Do not be sucked in. Bounces at this juncture are now sellable…not the other way around. This move in the NASDAQ and NDX is simply a joining of the 70% of the market that is already in a bear phase…some in a major bear phase. | -0.4% | 3.3% | -6.3% | -36.7% | + |
| 11/5/07 | But whatever has been working…continues to work…and until those areas top, you have to give the “major indices” the benefit of the doubt…warts and all. | -4.2% | -1.1% | -11.0% | -39.8% | – |
| 10/22/07 | A probable top is in place off of the nasty reversal as well as Friday’s ugly. Because of this, I am back to defensive. If it turns into something worse, I am ready. | 2.3% | -4.4% | -13.0% | -41.8% | + |
| 10/8/07 | Until I see serious distribution, I am going to play it for all its worth. …Just be wary that the best areas are extended and overdue for some pulling back…where they can be bought. | -0.2% | -2.1% | -8.8% | -41.4% | – |
| 10/2/07 | As long as we continue to see a lack of distribution and a slew of leadership, I will continue to play. | 1.2% | 0.2% | -5.1% | -28.9% | + |
| 9/7/07 | I am still 100% cash and not dealing with the ridiculous ups and downs… | 2.1% | 6.8% | 2.2% | -15.2% | – |
| 8/20/07 | …we remain in a downtrend. | 1.5% | 5.8% | 0.4% | -11.6% | – |
| 8/15/07 | I suspect a bigger bounce is due soon. | 4.1% | 5.5% | 2.3% | -9.1% | + |
| 8/8/07 | This market action does not change my overall feeling about the lending, housing ,mortgage and buyout business. …Do not shrug off all this news just because markets are in bounce mode. | -6.1% | -2.9% | 0.3% | -12.8% | + |
| 8/1/07 | ..it is imperative to stay defensive. | 2.2% | -0.6% | 5.1% | -14.8% | – |
| 7/27/07 | …too many stocks and sectors have topped…and I don’t think they have a chance to just turn around. …it is time to be defensive. | -1.8% | 0.5% | 3.9% | -12.0% | + |
| 7/18/07 | …the major indices’ charts look fine… | -1.8% | -8.7% | 0.2% | -18.5% | – |
| 6/27/07 | Many areas and many stocks are now breaking the important moving averages I have been harping about for months. Be on your guard! | 1.3% | -3.1% | 0.7% | -15.0% | – |
| 6/18/07 | …it would be crazy to get too bearish. | -2.2% | 1.0% | -3.1% | -12.3% | – |
| 5/1/07 | …the market has now started some corrective work. | 1.8% | 3.0% | -0.8% | -5.3% | – |
| 4/12/07 | Nothing wrong with being cautious. …We all know markets are due for a good correction…if not more. | 1.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | -7.8% | – |
| 3/29/07 | I suspect we are going to see markets head towards recent lows. …be very wary of the action and stay on the defensive… | 1.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | -3.9% | – |
| 3/14/07 | This is a classic MARKET TOP that will lead to lower prices. | 3.5% | 4.7% | 7.6% | -8.0% | – |
| 3/5/07 | …we are in a bear phase of unknown time and price. | 2.4% | 4.6% | 11.8% | -5.1% | – |
| 2/28/07 | Odds favor that THE MARKET HAS TOPPED. THE MARKET HAS TOPPED. THE MARKET HAS TOPPED. THE MARKET HAS TOPPED. THE MARKET HAS TOPPED. …Expect wild swings both up and down but expect the ultimate outcome to be lower prices in the weeks ahead. | -1.1% | 1.1% | 7.9% | -5.4% | – |
| 2/20/07 | …you must continue to give the market the bullish benefit of the doubt. …it remains crazy to go overly bearish…and almost psychotic to short anything… | -4.2% | -1.7% | 4.3% | -7.3% | – |
| 2/12/07 | …none of these support levels have been broken yet…but I am preparing for it if it occurs…and if there is anything we do know, a good correction is way overdue. | 1.8% | -3.2% | 4.9% | -5.9% | + |
| 2/2/07 | Bulls are in Full Control | -0.7% | -3.7% | 3.7% | -8.4% | – |
| 1/25/07 | …THE MARKET GETS THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT. | 1.5% | 1.8% | 5.0% | -4.3% | + |
| 1/17/07 | …the market remains with the benefit of the doubt. | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | -7.4% | + |
| 1/9/07 | Until the DOW, S&P, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 break just short-term support or moving averages, these areas keep the benefit of the doubt. | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | -0.8% | + |
| 12/28/06 | …let’s not sweat things yet. | -0.8% | 0.9% | -0.3% | 1.6% | + |
| 11/28/06 | …we would be thinking a little more defensive here… | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 6.2% | – |
| 11/24/06 | …this is really the most bullish of conditions when markets cannot correct. | -0.3% | 1.1% | -0.1% | 4.9% | – |
| 11/2/06 | …the party looks to be over. Pullbacks are normal after a good move up. We just wanted to let you know that we believe risk has picked up here and believe more corrective work could be at hand. | 0.8% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | – |
| 10/17/06 | …it is what it is. Do not fight it. | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 10.4% | + |
| 9/18/06 | …we may get some corrective work soon…so be careful here. …this market is starting to play out a little too much like late 1972-early 73…and it would not be a reach to say this market also has the feel of things in mid-1987. | 0.4% | 3.2% | 7.9% | 15.5% | – |
| 8/21/06 | It would be quite normal now to see a pullback/consolidation… | 0.3% | 2.1% | 7.9% | 14.0% | – |
| 8/10/06 | …our bearish stance on the condition of this market stands firm. | 2.0% | 2.2% | 8.7% | 10.6% | – |
| 8/2/06 | We continue to believe defense is the best offense. | -1.0% | 2.0% | 7.8% | 15.5% | – |
| 7/24/06 | Near-term, I think we can get a bounce. Just remember, that is the trees. The forest is the overall market…which has been a horror show. | 1.2% | 3.0% | 8.4% | 15.7% | 0 |
| 7/14/06 | This bear market is gaining teeth and desperately needs to be respected. …you should be at your most defensive position right now because we believe we are still in the early innings of this bear that will have more to go in time and price. | 0.3% | 2.6% | 9.2% | 25.6% | – |
| 7/10/06 | …the bear market that started on May 11, remains in force. | -2.6% | 0.3% | 6.8% | 22.5% | – |
| 6/26/06 | …until the market confirms that the downside is over…I treat it as an overall bear market/downtrend/bear phase. …Hold onto your hats this week as The Federal Open MOUTH Committee continues to try to kill this economy. | 2.4% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 20.2% | – |
| 6/19/06 | We completely disagree with the masses that this is nothing more than a normal correction. The average stock is much, much worse than the averages are showing. | 0.8% | 1.6% | 6.4% | 21.2% | – |
| 6/15/06 | We think conditions are such that a bear market rally is in order. | -0.8% | -1.7% | 4.9% | 20.4% | – |
| 6/5/06 | We are less thrilled than most with this market. | -2.3% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 19.2% | + |
| 5/30/06 | We suspect there is going to be more work to do as this bearish action continues to show its face…and until we say otherwise, rallies and bounces will be sellable. | 0.3% | -1.1% | 2.8% | 22.2% | + |
| 5/22/06 | We do not believe like others that this is just a correction that will resolve itself to the upside. …any bounce should be used for selling… There has been plenty of damage already and suspect there is more to come. | -0.2% | -0.8% | 3.2% | 20.1% | – |
| 5/18/06 | The bear phase, the bear market, the bad market…whatever you want to call it…is now gaining teeth. | 0.9% | -1.7% | 2.7% | 20.6% | – |
| 5/12/06 | …we urge you to now start playing defensive… | -1.9% | -5.2% | -1.5% | 17.2% | + |
| 5/8/06 | Sell in May and go away!” As of this second…NOT! If the stock market decides to top, we will get a few clues before the party is over. Major averages are singing a different song so far. | -2.3% | -5.2% | -3.4% | 13.5% | – |
| 5/1/06 | …continue to give the market the benefit of the doubt. | 1.5% | -2.7% | -2.0% | 15.4% | + |
| 4/10/06 | …it is time to take a step back and relax. …Most leading stocks and sectors feel like they are going to correct. | 0.9% | 2.0% | -2.3% | 13.3% | – |
| 4/5/06 | …the market continues to get the benefit of the doubt. | -1.8% | 1.1% | -3.1% | 9.7% | + |
| 3/29/06 | …the “market” continues to get the benefit of the doubt. | 0.7% | 0.6% | -4.9% | 10.4% | + |
| 3/22/06 | Shorter-term, expect at least some more downside… | -0.2% | 0.5% | -5.0% | 9.5% | + |
| 3/15/06 | …the market continues to get the benefit of the doubt… | 0.2% | -1.1% | -6.1% | 8.3% | – |
| 1/13/06 | …I suspect we have some corrective work to do as we enter into earnings season…and that started yesterday. Markets will either make a right turn and stall…letting the moving averages catch up over the next few weeks or they will start pulling back into them. | -1.8% | -0.9% | 0.1% | 11.1% | + |
| 1/3/06 | I suspect the market is due for some short-term bouncing but all the subsurface deterioration I have been warning you about is now starting to tug at the major averages. | 1.6% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 11.4% | + |
| 12/19/05 | …I will give the market the benefit of the doubt. | -0.3% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 12.6% | – |
| 12/5/05 | …this market will continue to put in stalling/consolidating-type action…if not a decent pullback….for the near-term. | -0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 11.5% | + |
| 11/10/05 | …I am now starting to think a pullback could be at hand. | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 13.2% | – |
| 10/31/05 | …now the market feels like it will try to test more upside. | 1.3% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 13.3% | + |
| 10/27/05 | …underneath the hood of this market, after only one week off the lows, I am starting to become less than thrilled. | 3.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 16.9% | – |
| 10/20/05 | …the market has found a near-term low. | 0.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 16.9% | + |
| 10/10/05 | I believe we can get more of a bounce this week… The key now is for you to separate the trees (short-term conditions) from what really matters (the forest)…which is the longer-term deterioration that continues. | 0.2% | 2.6% | 8.7% | 14.8% | – |
| 10/6/05 | …odds favor some more downside work. | -1.2% | 2.4% | 6.9% | 13.6% | + |
| 9/26/05 | I would not bet against a further bounce… Even if the major indices move to new highs (and I believe odds do not favor that this second) this market is classic late stage action. Stay on your toes. | 0.9% | -1.6% | 4.3% | 10.1% | 0 |
| 9/22/05 | This is no time to be a hero as most stocks and sectors have turned down. | 1.1% | -2.9% | 3.7% | 10.0% | + |
| 8/29/05 | …there is potential for a bounce soon…BUT…we expect any bounce to be of only “B” to “C” quality. We say this because there have been too many stocks breaking down over the past few days. At the very least, they will need time to repair. | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.6% | 7.6% | + |
| 8/9/05 | Shorter-term, all the areas that have been hit the past few days…are due to bounce. | -1.0% | 0.0% | -0.9% | 2.9% | – |
| 7/26/05 | It would be quite normal for a rest/pullback… | 1.1% | -1.8% | -4.2% | 3.8% | – |
| 7/12/05 | Near-term, the market needs a rest and I would not bet against it. | 0.6% | 0.6% | -2.2% | 1.1% | – |
| 6/28/05 | It would be quite normal to bounce here with the markets near-term oversold. | -0.6% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 5.7% | – |
| 6/24/05 | …we believe a trading top has been put in…and there is a decent chance for an important top has been put in… | 0.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 4.6% | – |
| 5/31/05 | Shorter-term, we are expecting some sort of pullback in the coming days. | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 8.1% | – |
| 5/16/05 | We are still in no mood for longs… There is simply no reason to jump the gun here. | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 8.2% | – |
| 5/2/05 | …Shorter-term, all the areas that have been hit the past few days…are due to bounce…bounces aside, we still believe the market to be in trouble. | 1.4% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 12.9% | 0 |
