As suggested by readers, we evaluate here Douglas Kass’ outlooks for the U.S. stock market since mid-2006 as extracted from his Seabreeze Partners blog. Douglas Kass is founder and President of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., which “specializes in the management of alternative investment products.” He writes regularly for TheStreet.com (apparently the source of blog articles) and appears frequently on CNBC. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Douglas Kass forms his outlook for the U.S. stock market based on a combination of economic indicators, a market valuation model and sentiment of informed traders/investors. He tends to be contrarian, “taking the road less traveled.” He is sometimes a “contra-quant” trader.
- The Seabreeze Partners blog contains articles written by Douglas Kass and others, with the latter citing Douglas Kass. We focus on articles written by Douglas Kass.
- There is overlap in his frequent outlooks, effectively reducing sample size. We generally select the most specific of repetitive outlooks on consecutive days (with more frequent sampling during market turbulence). Articles are less frequent early in the sample period.
- Douglas Kass also offers outlooks on housing, gold, bonds and economic indicators. We focus here only on his outlooks for the U.S. stock market.
- Outlooks are of varying horizons and specificity. We include some difficult-to-grade vague outlooks to provide reasonably even coverage over time.
- Douglas Kass’ forecast sample size is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the accuracy measurement.
As of December 2012, Seabreeze Partners has imposed detailed registration and certification conditions for viewing the source blog. We will therefore not be adding new forecasts.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Doug Kass via blog at http://seabreezepartners.net | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 11/27/12 | I expect the S&P 500’s year-end close to be around 1415… | 0.6% | 1.4% | 8.4% | 29.1% | + |
| 11/16/12 | …the elements of a fiscal cliff compromise are in place and that the market is exaggerating the chance of failure. …Stocks should follow to the upside. | 3.4% | 6.4% | 12.6% | 31.0% | + |
| 11/12/12 | I am more upbeat than I have been for quite some time, and, while not “over my skis” long, I have increased my net long exposure to about 40%… | 0.5% | 3.5% | 10.1% | 29.8% | + |
| 11/2/12 | …some combination of the earnings cliff, the political cliff and the fiscal cliff will be in attendance next Wednesday, and I want to be in cash (as the melded risk/reward is not attractive to me over the near term). | -2.4% | -0.5% | 5.8% | 25.2% | + |
| 10/25/12 | …I am now 40% net long, which puts me at my highest long exposure in about five months. …Support lines are there to be tested — sometimes they fail and a bear market commences; other times they are successfully tested and stocks move higher. I see the latter now… | 0.3% | -0.2% | 6.7% | 24.3% | – |
| 10/11/12 | Yesterday I covered all my index hedges, and I am back to a 5%-10% net long exposure. Though this is still quite a defensive positive… | 1.7% | -4.1% | 2.6% | 21.0% | + |
| 10/9/12 | Given the current level of stock prices, I am continuing to side to the downside argument. I start the day about 25% net short. | 0.9% | -4.3% | 2.1% | 17.8% | + |
| 9/13/12 | …I believe we are at or near the top in world equity prices. …I remain net short. | 0.0% | -2.2% | -2.8% | 18.0% | + |
| 9/6/12 | …I remain of the view that the U.S. stock market could be tracing a triple-top and that it is quite possible that the year’s highs have already been seen. …Sell the news. | 1.9% | 2.0% | -1.3% | 17.5% | – |
| 8/30/12 | My guess…is a quick, but short-lived selloff on Friday that could extend into early next week. …I remain of the view that…that investors should be prepared for a fall in prices in the months ahead. …I stand today at the lowest gross long position and highest gross short position of the year. | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 18.3% | – |
| 8/21/12 | …I have grown more cautious over the near term…investors and traders who share my views might consider below-average exposure to the U.S. stock market. More aggressive investors might ponder shorting opportunities in the days and weeks ahead. | -0.3% | 3.3% | -1.8% | 15.4% | – |
| 8/15/12 | …a yearly high might be put in place in August. In response to another question, I thought a move to 1300-1320 in the S&P was a possibility in the correction I foresaw in the months ahead. | 0.6% | 4.3% | -3.6% | 16.9% | – |
| 8/3/12 | …I took off my index short hedges as the market’s drop intensified on Thursday. | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 21.6% | + |
| 7/30/12 | I start the day approximately 15% net short. | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 23.2% | – |
| 7/20/12 | …during the market strength from Tuesday to Thursday, I expanded my net short exposure to the second highest level of the year. | 1.7% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 24.1% | – |
| 7/6/12 | I start the day about 20% net short. | 0.2% | 2.9% | 7.1% | 24.0% | – |
| 6/29/12 | After buying the rumor, I would begin to sell the news — as early as this morning. In fact, I am starting to hedge my portfolio in premarket trading, as I have taken a small SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) short at $134.75 and will scale up higher on strength. | -0.7% | 1.3% | 6.2% | 20.4% | – |
| 6/21/12 | …I expect the U.S. stock market to be range-bound with a slightly downside bias over the near term. I have taken down my market exposure… | 0.3% | 1.9% | 10.2% | 21.7% | – |
| 6/11/12 | I expect my S&P price target [1455] to be realized but that the 2012 investment year may be back-end loaded. The Kass model portfolio’s recommended invested position remains at 75%. | 2.7% | 2.5% | 9.9% | 25.2% | + |
| 6/6/12 | Overwhelmingly negative sentiment and weak investor expectations remain important ingredients for the possibility of a rip-your-face-apart rally that I expect… | 0.0% | 3.0% | 6.8% | 22.6% | + |
| 5/29/12 | …I expect the S&P 500 to be contained within the range of 1290 and my fair market value of 1455 over the balance of the year…, which provides an attractive market entry point today. It may be time to take a bullish and contrarian investment stance. | -3.5% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 22.4% | + |
| 5/21/12 | Tactically, I plan to sit tight with my current positions (about 50% net long exposure) and to wait out the increasingly emotional backdrop of fear and loss of investor confidence. Based on their relationship to corporate profits, sales, private market values and interest rates, stocks are inexpensive and, from my perch, provide a floor to equities. | 1.2% | 3.0% | 7.8% | 26.1% | + |
| 5/8/12 | …I expect an irregular grind to higher levels. …I am raising my recommended exposure…from 60% to 70%. …Buy in May and go away. | -2.4% | -3.6% | 2.2% | 21.0% | – |
| 5/3/12 | Buy stocks… | -2.4% | -8.1% | -1.2% | 16.9% | – |
| 4/25/12 | …I have been slowly expanding my net long exposure, which now stands at the highest level since early January 2012. …From my perch, the U.S. stock market might now be heading back to new highs. | 0.8% | -5.0% | -3.8% | 13.8% | – |
| 4/16/12 | …growing uncertainties point to a trendless market contained in a range between 1300 and 1430 on the S&P 500… | -0.2% | -2.8% | -0.9% | 14.1% | + |
| 4/12/12 | …I expanded my long book on Wednesday. …color me more bullish. | -0.8% | -2.5% | -3.3% | 11.1% | – |
| 4/9/12 | Why wait until May when you can sell today? Sell in April and go away. | -0.9% | -1.3% | -0.5% | 12.3% | + |
| 4/4/12 | …the forward looking outlook is not pretty for the U.S. stock market, as the liquidity rally is now over. Get defensive as investors face the newfound reality of natural price discovery. | -0.8% | -2.1% | -1.8% | 13.9% | + |
| 3/19/12 | I am reducing the recommended exposure of the Kass model portfolio (long-only) from 50% to 40%, reflecting my calculation that the market is approximately 5% overvalued. | 0.5% | -1.7% | -4.7% | 10.1% | + |
| 3/8/12 | …I continue to see a pullback… | 2.7% | 1.2% | -3.7% | 14.4% | – |
| 3/1/12 | …take some profits and build up cash. And then, if you have the flexibility and the stomach for it, short. | -0.6% | 2.5% | -4.4% | 12.4% | – |
| 2/23/12 | I’m looking for a near-term drop of 4%-5%…technical and fundamental signs had me moving into a net short position earlier this week. | 0.8% | 2.5% | -3.4% | 11.1% | – |
| 2/21/12 | …I expect the S&P 500 to range in price between 1250 and 1550 for the full year. …I continue to have an optimistic intermediate-term outlook on the market, and I expect the S&P 500 to range in price between 1250 and 1550 for the full year. …the broader market provides little immediate value over the shorter term today. | 0.7% | 3.0% | -4.9% | 9.9% | 0 |
| 2/8/12 | So risk vs. reward, to me, is neutral and uninspiring. | -0.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 12.6% | + |
| 2/1/12 | I lifted my S&P hedges in early Tuesday trading, as I expect a dash higher in the averages and an upside breakout of the recent trading range. | 2.0% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 14.2% | + |
| 1/27/12 | …I still expect a correction (though more shallow than previously thought) and a period of backing and filling ahead — before a new bull market leg commences. | 2.2% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 15.0% | – |
| 1/23/12 | I am reducing the long exposure of the Kass model portfolio from 75% to 50%. While I have raised the S&P 500’s fair market value from 1325 to 1345, the upside is now only 2% from Friday’s close of 1315. Technicals, sentiment, politics and fundamentals point to a possible pause in the market’s advance. The intermediate-term 2012 outlook for the U.S. stock market remains bright. | -0.2% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 14.0% | 0 |
| 1/17/12 | …the likely course of the U.S. stock market this year — that is, higher, perhaps much higher. …expansion in multiples, coupled with near-10% earnings growth, could produce an outsized and totally unexpected 20%-25% gain the S&P 500 this year. | 1.6% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 15.4% | – |
| 1/10/12 | The U.S. stock market is likely headed higher…the U.S. stock market could surprise people to the upside in the near term. | 1.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 14.0% | + |
| 12/27/11 | The beginning of the New Year brings a stable and range-bound market. A confluence of events…allows for the S&P 500 to eclipse the 2000 high of 1527.46 during the second half of the year. …The market rip occurs in a relatively narrow time frame as the S&P 500 records two consecutive months of double-digit returns in summer/early-fall 2012. | 0.9% | 4.0% | 11.6% | 15.6% | – |
| 12/20/11 | …unusual value in stocks has developed, and I am exploiting that opportunity… A dispassionate accumulation of stocks is what I believe to be in order now. | 0.7% | 6.0% | 13.0% | 14.4% | + |
| 12/16/11 | Over the past few weeks I have been capitalizing on the shroud of European uncertainty to expand my net long exposure…the intermediate-term outlook for U.S. stocks is growing brighter. | 3.7% | 7.8% | 15.6% | 17.3% | + |
| 12/1/11 | …I plan to sit on my hands and watch — for now. | -0.8% | 2.6% | 12.9% | 13.6% | – |
| 11/17/11 | I am using the stock market weakness in days such as yesterday to increase my overall net long position… | -4.7% | -0.9% | 11.9% | 15.9% | + |
| 11/7/11 | …I have grown more optimistic as the fundamental, valuation, technical and sentiment factors seem to have aligned to be supportive of higher stock prices. | -0.7% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 9.4% | + |
| 10/24/11 | …the fair value of the S&P 500 has been raised by about 5%, from 1205 to 1270. | -0.1% | -5.3% | 4.8% | 12.7% | + |
| 10/4/11 | Melding my four economic scenarios…produces a price target on the S&P 500 of around 1205, or around 10% higher than the current level. | 6.4% | 10.1% | 13.6% | 30.0% | + |
| 9/28/11 | Err on the side of conservatism in these uncertain (and market volatile) times. | -0.6% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 25.5% | – |
| 9/26/11 | …the S&P 500, at around 1130, is discounting a near 50% chance of recession and has discounted (according to my estimates) 2012 S&P earnings of around $76 a share. I expect a lower probability of recession and substantially higher corporate profits… | -5.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 24.4% | + |
| 9/12/11 | …continue to err on the side of conservatism by being more concerned with return of capital than return on capital. | 3.6% | 2.9% | 6.2% | 25.6% | – |
| 8/23/11 | …I continue to see a successful test between 1130 and 1150 on the S&P 500 (above the lows of two weeks ago)… | 4.4% | -2.8% | 4.6% | 21.4% | + |
| 8/16/11 | I remain of the view that Mr. Market hit a low for the year last Monday evening. But I am less certain that there is much upside… | -2.5% | 1.4% | 6.0% | 18.9% | 0 |
| 8/10/11 | …the U.S. stock market might have hit a 2011 bottom on Monday… | 6.5% | 3.0% | 12.5% | 25.3% | 0 |
| 7/28/11 | …at current S&P 500 levels, my view is that risk and reward is relatively neutral. An expected S&P range of 1250-1350 remains my baseline expectation. | -7.7% | -9.5% | -5.5% | 6.0% | – |
| 7/11/11 | …I would now sell stocks as the risk/reward is currently unfavorable. | -1.1% | -11.1% | -11.7% | 1.2% | + |
| 7/7/11 | Just as the market overshot on the downside a few short weeks ago, it now appears to be overshooting on the upside. | -3.3% | -11.4% | -16.9% | -0.9% | + |
| 6/22/11 | Rally looks petered out…I lightened up late in the day and in after-market trading. | 1.6% | 4.5% | -6.6% | 2.1% | – |
| 6/15/11 | It is time to emphasize return of capital over the return on capital… | 1.7% | 4.0% | -7.3% | 6.3% | + |
| 6/10/11 | With so much indecision (and open economic questions) in the marketplace, a still-conservative and risk-averse strategy is a reasonable approach for most investors and traders… | 0.0% | 3.4% | -6.7% | 3.5% | + |
| 6/6/11 | …my continued expectation that the U.S. stock market is likely to be range-bound between 1250 and 1350 on the S&P 500. | -1.1% | 4.1% | -6.4% | 2.2% | – |
| 5/31/11 | …I am treating the rally as nothing more than a dead-cat bounce. A new bull market leg? No way | -4.5% | -2.8% | -12.5% | -5.0% | + |
| 5/25/11 | …I still expect a flat year for the S&P 500. | -0.6% | -3.9% | -12.0% | 0.9% | + |
| 5/9/11 | Err on the side of conservatism as the market’s waters look increasingly choppy. | -1.2% | -5.0% | -10.9% | 0.9% | + |
| 4/29/11 | My trade last night on ‘Fast Money’ was…to raise cash and to expand my short book. | -1.7% | -1.4% | -4.6% | 2.8% | + |
| 4/11/11 | At the very least, in these uncertain times, hedge or purchase protection… For, if not Apocalypse now, there is a risk of Apocalypse soon | -1.5% | 1.3% | -0.4% | 3.5% | – |
| 3/29/11 | …a range-bound market confined between 1,250 and 1,350 on the S&P 500 seems to be a reasonable expectation. …we probably hit a low for the next few months at around 1,250 on the S&P on Japan’s “Nuclear Wednesday” a few weeks ago. | 1.0% | 3.1% | -3.0% | 6.7% | + |
| 3/17/11 | …I have been a net buyer of stocks over the past few days…it is not inconceivable that the 2011 lows in the equity market might have been hit when the futures were down over 10 handles last night. | 2.8% | 3.6% | -0.7% | 10.3% | 0 |
| 3/14/11 | In this setting, a more conservative asset mix and higher cash position than normal seems to be a prudent strategy. | 0.2% | 1.4% | -2.0% | 8.2% | + |
| 3/10/11 | My answer is that the S&P 500 will be roughly flat for the year, with some short-term downside bias. | -1.7% | 2.6% | -1.2% | 7.8% | + |
| 2/16/11 | I still view the U.S. stock market with caution… | -2.3% | -4.3% | -0.5% | 1.9% | + |
| 1/5/11 | I have the lowest long exposure that I have had in many years… | 0.7% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 12/27/10 | The market moves sideways during 2011. | 1.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | -0.6% | + |
| 12/17/10 | …I continue to see an unfavorable risk/reward ratio. | 1.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | -0.2% | – |
| 12/1/10 | I am now net long for the first time in quite a while… While it remains unlikely that the S&P 500 index will breach the 1227 level achieved in early November to the upside, it might be challenged in the weeks ahead leading up to year-end. | 1.8% | 4.3% | 8.5% | 3.2% | + |
| 11/10/10 | I remain of the view that the prospective 2011-2012 outlook for economic and corporate profit growth is not supportive of current stock prices | -3.3% | 1.8% | 8.4% | 3.7% | – |
| 11/1/10 | I continue to expect that the U.S. stock market has seen the top for the year, and I envision a relatively narrow trading range with a slightly negative bias over the balance of the year. Looking ahead to early 2011, as the market braces for gridlock and more economic uncertainty and challenges, I expect the current optimism to diminish and for equities to succumb to the grimmer reality… | 3.3% | 1.8% | 8.6% | 4.5% | – |
| 10/19/10 | …I now believe that equities are in the process of putting in the highs for the year. | 1.7% | 1.1% | 11.1% | 4.2% | – |
| 10/11/10 | …the downside risk may soon lie at the highest level in a year. | 1.7% | 4.1% | 9.1% | 3.6% | – |
| 10/4/10 | Heads investors win, tails investors win? At current stock prices, that is not a coin toss that I wish to bet on right now. | 2.5% | 5.0% | 10.6% | 0.6% | – |
| 9/7/10 | …I find it hard for valuations to expand and for the S&P 500 to make much progress above 1,150 this year. | 2.7% | 6.2% | 12.2% | 8.6% | – |
| 9/2/10 | …from my perch, …U.S. stocks trading at 12x reasonable 2011 S&P profits seem cheap and should be purchased. | 1.8% | 4.3% | 10.6% | 6.9% | + |
| 8/24/10 | …this is precisely the sort of desultory setting in which a recovery in stock prices can emerge. | -0.2% | 6.9% | 14.1% | 10.2% | + |
| 8/19/10 | For now, erring on the side of conservatism (and holding below-average investment/trading positions) seems to be the appropriate strategy… | -2.6% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 4.5% | – |
| 8/12/10 | …the risk-reward on the S&P 500 is now tipping back to a slightly more attractive ratio… My target 1,150 for the S&P for the second half of 2010 still seems to be a reasonable one… | -0.7% | 3.5% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 0 |
| 8/5/10 | … lumpy growth and the emergence of nontraditional headwinds (fiscal imbalances at the federal, state and local levels, higher marginal tax rates, a costly and burdensome regulatory backdrop, etc.) will serve to cap the market’s upside valuations and target level within a few percentage points from the current level. | -3.7% | -1.9% | 6.0% | -0.6% | – |
| 7/28/10 | …investors should err on the side of conservatism over the balance of 2010. | 1.9% | -5.3% | 7.2% | 16.8% | – |
| 7/16/10 | I now view the risk/reward for equities to be roughly in balance, with an anticipated 2010 S&P range of 1,025-1,150 over the remainder of the year). So, for now, curb your enthusiasm. | 3.5% | 1.4% | 10.6% | 24.6% | – |
| 6/21/10 | … I would be a seller into the breakout based on a generally matched risk and reward for the S&P 500 (1,050 on the low side, 1,180 on the upside) for the next several months. | -3.5% | -3.9% | 1.1% | 15.6% | + |
| 6/14/10 | In this setting, a more conservative asset mix and higher cash position than normal seems to be the prudent strategy. | 2.2% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 16.1% | + |
| 6/7/10 | …my best guess is that the S&P 500 will be stuck in a relatively tight trading range of between 1,025 and 1,200 for the second half of 2010… With valuations now compressed…, I am a scale buyer, looking to increase my relatively low net long exposure (especially during further periods of weakness). | 3.7% | 0.9% | 3.8% | 21.8% | + |
| 6/2/10 | My best guess is that the S&P 500 will gravitate toward the higher end of an expected trading range between 1,050 and 1,180 later in the summer. | -3.9% | -6.5% | -4.5% | 18.4% | + |
| 5/27/10 | …the outsized and disruptive role of quant trading is providing a short-term opportunity to buy stocks cheaply, and I see the recent week’s action as a precursor to a good rally in equities. Color me increasingly bullish. | -3.5% | -2.6% | -4.3% | 22.0% | – |
| 3/8/10 | …it is my view that the risk/reward ratio for U.S. equities is turning less attractive than in recent memory. Wholesale values are increasingly scarce, and I won’t pay retail in today’s U.S. stock market. | 1.1% | 3.9% | -6.5% | 15.9% | + |
| 2/24/10 | The S&P will likely be stuck in a trading range between 1,025 and 1,150 over the next six to nine months, and I expect that we will end the year at the lower end of that range…. For the full year, the major market indices will likely exhibit a high-single-digit loss (down 5% to 10%). | 1.2% | 5.5% | -2.9% | 19.4% | – |
| 2/16/10 | The foundation of growth remains shaky, and the risks of continued aftershocks and economically deflating policies (both in the U.S. and abroad) in a world so interconnected are simply too high to support a heavy commitment or above-average weighting to equities in 2010. | 0.0% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 22.1% | – |
| 2/5/10 | … I view the yesterday’s panic as a likely nearing of the end of the market’s correction rather than the beginning of a much larger selloff or bear market. It will soon be time to be greedy when others are fearful. | 0.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 24.2% | + |
| 2/2/10 | The U.S. stock market will show little movement during the first quarter. For the full year, the major market indices will likely exhibit a high-single-digit loss (down 5% to 10%). | -3.0% | 1.8% | 9.0% | 18.5% | – |
| 1/25/10 | …a relatively conservative posture seems more appropriate. | -0.7% | 0.8% | 11.0% | 18.2% | – |
| 1/20/10 | I would not be surprised to see…major market indices sell off over the short term. | -3.6% | -2.5% | 6.1% | 12.8% | + |
| 1/12/10 | LOOKIN’ FOR A CORRECTION IN A MARKET ON STEROIDS | 0.2% | -5.1% | 5.4% | 13.0% | + |
| 12/21/09 | Stocks drop by 10% in the first half of next year… For the full year, the S&P 500 exhibits a 10% decline… | 1.1% | -2.0% | 5.4% | 12.8% | – |
| 11/27/09 | …it might be time to anticipate a reversal of fortune — an unpopular, unimaginable and unexpected outsized market decline. | 1.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 10.5% | – |
| 11/19/09 | …I continue to sit out the melt-up in stocks…. When investors/traders are arguably overinfluenced by prices (not fundamentals)…, and are all on a similar side, it has the potential to lead to a treacherous and slippery slope, as it did in 2007-2008. | -0.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 7.8% | – |
| 11/12/09 | I do believe with some certainty that the market’s vulnerability to disappointment and/or exogenous events has been elevated… I now see a far less attractive risk/reward ratio than at any time in 2009 — maybe longer. | 0.7% | 2.5% | -1.1% | 8.4% | + |
| 11/3/09 | I still expect a 5% to 12% drop from the highs. …once we get into a real short-term oversold later this month or in early December, we could get a classical year-end rally, but that rally will not likely get through the previous highs. | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 17.3% | – |
| 9/29/09 | …I continue to hold on to the variant view that the markets have likely peaked for the year… | -0.6% | -1.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | – |
| 9/14/09 | BEARISH ARGUMENTS ARE ROARING IN MY EARS | 1.5% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | – |
| 9/2/09 | My advice is to reduce your risk profile by raising cash, upgrading the quality of your trading/investing portfolio, chill out a bit, read some books and words of advice from the best there is/was and, generally, to err on the side of conservatism in the months ahead. | 5.0% | 3.1% | 11.5% | 9.8% | – |
| 8/26/09 | …markets are now overshooting to the upside…the U.S. stock market has likely peaked for the year. | -3.2% | 1.6% | 7.6% | 2.0% | – |
| 7/27/09 | …my model portfolio’s high cash position reflects a less optimistic view of the sustainability of corporate profit and economic growth as well as a renewal of excessive optimism in sentiment and a move toward more elevated valuation levels (which are not supported by the profit picture I foresee). | 2.1% | 4.7% | 11.3% | 12.2% | – |
| 7/14/09 | Exposure to equities should be below average for some time to come… Cash will be king for some time to come. | 5.4% | 11.0% | 18.3% | 17.6% | – |
| 7/9/09 | My baseline expectation is that the expected summer snooze fest could be followed by a meaningful, maybe even an explosive and certainly playable up leg that, from my perch, should be sold into in anticipation of the first half of 2010’s double-dip… | 6.6% | 14.5% | 19.5% | 24.1% | – |
| 6/22/09 | …a sideways correction or a deep correction are most likely, with a combined probability of 65%, and that a continued rally holds about a 35% probability. | 3.8% | 6.8% | 19.6% | 20.2% | – |
| 6/15/09 | There’s been a major change in the portfolio since its inception in April — a near-doubling in the cash component. The U.S. equity market is now vulnerable to a decline of 5% to 10%. | -3.3% | 1.0% | 12.9% | 20.8% | + |
| 6/2/09 | The next 50 points in the S&P 500 will be down, not up. | -0.2% | -2.3% | 8.9% | 12.7% | + |
| 5/29/09 | Over the short term, I continue to see a sideways correction. | 2.3% | 0.9% | 11.9% | 19.5% | + |
| 5/14/09 | …erring on the side of conservatism should continue to be the dominant investment mantra. | -0.5% | 3.4% | 12.6% | 25.5% | – |
| 4/30/09 | …I have been recently expanding my short book into the impressive strength, and I have been liquidating extended stocks… The first week in March was an excellent example of an overshoot to the downside. It seems, too, that the last week in April might be another example of an overshoot — but to the upside. | 4.0% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 34.5% | – |
| 4/23/09 | I anticipate a consolidation of recent market gains before an explosive rally toward the S&P 1,050 level, which could occur in the mid to late summer. | 2.5% | 4.1% | 12.0% | 38.9% | 0 |
| 4/13/09 | …I continue to maintain that the S&P 500 could rise considerably further (to about 1,050) by mid to late summer, but the road to higher ground will likely be bumpy. Beyond a summer peak in equities, the market’s outlook appears more problematic… | -3.1% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 41.1% | 0 |
| 4/6/09 | …the market will have only another two to four percent upside before a two month price consolidation takes hold. | 0.7% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 43.0% | – |
| 4/3/09 | The market internals, in particular, are unusually strong and indicative of a broadening market that likely hit a generational low a month ago and would likely sustain itself into the summer months. | 1.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 40.8% | + |
| 3/27/09 | …it is now an appropriate time to raise some cash. | 3.3% | 4.8% | 12.8% | 43.3% | – |
| 3/24/09 | …the early March low represented a yearly and, quite possibly, a generational market bottom. | -1.0% | 5.7% | 10.8% | 44.7% | + |
| 3/16/09 | A deep oversold, worsening sentiment and positive internal divergences spell a continued market recovery. …stocks have likely made a 2009 low and possibly a generational low. | 9.2% | 13.0% | 25.5% | 54.6% | + |
| 3/11/09 | …we’re printing an important low. …I believe we’ll quickly ramp to about 805 on the S&P 500. | 10.1% | 18.7% | 30.6% | 59.5% | + |
| 3/4/09 | …my market bottom expectation is not a capricious call… It is now time to be greedy when others are fearful and irrationally non-exuberant. | 1.2% | 17.0% | 32.5% | 59.7% | + |
| 2/17/09 | …for the first time in several years, I am in a (slightly) net long position. Gun to my head, my baseline expectation is that the S&P could end up with a mid- to high-single-digit return for the full year, or about 15% above current levels. | -2.0% | 0.7% | 11.9% | 40.5% | – |
| 1/5/09 | …I remain of the view that we are in a broad trading range of approximately 825 to 1,025 on the S&P 500, …”a period of nothing happening” seems to be the likely order of the next several months. …The economic sky is no longer falling nor is the S&P 500 moving to levels forecast by doomsayers weeks ago. But the economic sky is not all clear nor is the S&P going to immediately regain a meaningful amount of the lost value of 2008. | -6.2% | -10.3% | -9.2% | 23.1% | – |
| 12/29/08 | The U.S. stock market rises by close to 20% in the year’s first half…, which is range-bound for the remainder of the year, settling up by approximately 20% for the 12-month period ending Dec. 31, 2009. | 7.5% | -2.8% | -9.4% | 28.3% | 0 |
| 12/22/08 | I am feeling pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good that the stock market has bottomed. …the stock market remains in a fairly broad trading range of plus/minus 10% to 15% until the foreseeable future. | 2.2% | -4.6% | -7.5% | 29.2% | – |
| 12/8/08 | …an important change in stock market conditions could be imminent just when most investors have turned to the sidelines. Color me more bullish… | -4.5% | 0.0% | -20.9% | 21.2% | – |
| 12/2/08 | At some time in the future (possibly sooner than later), an historic buy-and-hold opportunity will be in front of us. | 4.7% | 9.8% | -16.0% | 30.3% | + |
| 11/20/08 | …for the foreseeable future, we will get no satisfaction in investing opportunities. | 19.1% | 15.8% | -1.2% | 46.9% | – |
| 11/11/08 | My best guess is that the market will fluctuate within a very broad trading range of plus or minus 10% to 15% in either direction from today’s S&P 500 level – but, then again, a 10% move is only the average of three days trading! — making very little progress over the next several months. …Erring on the side of conservatism remains the proper course for most investors. | -4.4% | -2.8% | -7.3% | 21.6% | + |
| 11/5/08 | …I don’t expect the Obama Bounce to morph into the Obama Rally. | -10.5% | -8.1% | -11.2% | 14.7% | + |
| 10/15/08 | A sustained market advance appears unlikely. | 0.0% | 0.4% | -7.2% | 20.9% | + |
| 10/6/08 | The way for most investors to cope with crisis is to stay out of the crisis. Despite unprecedented short-term trading opportunities, my consistent advice is that investors/traders should err on the side of conservatism as, for now, return of capital trumps return on capital. | -5.1% | -4.8% | -12.2% | 0.8% | + |
| 9/25/08 | …corporate profit expectations for 2008 to 2010 remain far too optimistic and will serve to mute the upside to equities… | -7.8% | -27.5% | -28.6% | -12.3% | + |
| 9/15/08 | Continue to err on the side of conservatism. | 1.2% | -16.3% | -26.8% | -10.7% | + |
| 9/7/08 | …my investment disposition is now turning more sunny. | -5.9% | -21.4% | -33.3% | -17.6% | – |
| 9/4/08 | The light at the end of the tunnel may not be an illusion, but the tunnel might be! It’s time to get more bullish. | 1.0% | -11.1% | -31.4% | -17.1% | – |
| 8/28/08 | …the market holds some upside but, most likely, will still be down [between 6% and 12%] on the year. | -4.5% | -14.9% | -34.1% | -23.3% | – |
| 7/28/08 | …I think we have probably seen the lows for the year… My guess…is that the S&P 500 will end the year with a decline of 10% to 15%, or roughly about 5% above current levels. |
1.2% | 3.0% | -29.0% | -20.1% | – |
| 7/21/08 | …a big surprise in the second half of the year could be that the market averages neither rally nor decline meaningfully from the current level. | -2.0% | 0.5% | -24.9% | -22.5% | – |
| 7/2/08 | …I now expect a rally in equities. Indeed, it is not inconceivable that the market has hit a yearly low. | -0.6% | -0.1% | -7.5% | -30.2% | – |
| 6/23/08 | Regardless of short-term direction, we continue to be in an investing environment that argues in favor of erring on the side of conservatism. | -2.9% | -2.7% | -4.8% | -30.2% | + |
| 6/5/08 | I am growing increasingly short-term optimistic… | 0.0% | -6.4% | -9.1% | -31.0% | – |
| 5/27/08 | …above-average cash reserves and an opportunistic trading approach make a lot of sense until we see more clarity. | -0.6% | -4.6% | -6.7% | -33.7% | + |
| 4/21/08 | My current market rating is now…slightly below neutral short-term and negative intermediate-term… | 0.2% | 1.8% | -9.2% | -38.6% | 0 |
| 4/9/08 | …I…believe a bottom has been put in. But I have to renounce the…contention that a new Bull Market leg is near… | 0.8% | 2.5% | -6.0% | -36.6% | – |
| 3/13/08 | …investors should err on the side of conservatism by taking below-average trading/investing positions. | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | -40.8% | + |
| 2/11/08 | …we are moving closer to (or at the stage of) a tradable rally. Nevertheless, I suspect the rally will be contained to something less than a 5% advance as I remain of the view that the intermediate-term headwinds have mounted and will provide challenges for corporate managers and investment managers in navigating the economy and the markets. | 0.7% | -2.3% | 3.7% | -37.6% | + |
| 2/1/08 | …keeping below-average investment and trading positions seems to be a reasonable strategy… | -4.6% | -4.9% | 1.3% | -40.4% | + |
| 1/26/08 | …we are in uncertain economic times and investors should err on the side of conservatism. Mr. Market has had a massive heart attack, and it will take a while for him to recuperate. A broad trading range and base-building remains my baseline expectation. | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | -37.6% | + |
| 1/8/08 | My “seeing eye” says that I should back off from my bearishness over the short term — if only for a couple of percent rise. I believe a momentum low might have been hit on Friday and that there was some evidence of bullish divergences beginning to appear yesterday. And I suspect, over the short term, equities might hold yesterday’s low of 1,406. | -0.7% | -3.8% | -1.8% | -36.0% | + |
| 1/3/08 | …”facing the music” — and raise some cash. Maybe not now, maybe not tomorrow, but on any strength! | -1.9% | -4.6% | -5.4% | -35.4% | 0 |
| 12/31/07 | The S&P 500 Index falls by 5%-10% in 2008… | -5.3% | -6.1% | -6.7% | -36.5% | – |
| 12/17/07 | I remain more confident than ever in my intermediate view that a period of uneven and disappointing economic and profit growth augurs for substandard stock market returns. From that context, the market is on the brink. | 3.5% | -7.8% | -8.0% | -38.8% | + |
| 12/4/07 | … the world equity markets have not priced in the ramifications of a materially adverse change in credit supply and availability as well as the growing probability of an economic and profit recession in the U.S. | 1.0% | -3.5% | -8.8% | -40.1% | + |
| 11/26/07 | …keep investment/trading positions at well below average size… | 4.7% | 6.5% | -1.8% | -36.9% | + |
| 10/22/07 | …the bulls continue to think very linearly and seem to be missing how significant the role of credit was to past growth and how significant a pullback in credit will be on future growth. Significantly, the markets continue to underestimate the consequences of leverage and are overestimating the prospects for corporate profit growth. | 2.3% | -4.4% | -13.0% | -41.8% | + |
| 9/24/07 | …bears are not overstating the multiplier effect of a sustained housing downturn (homeowners have only just begun to acquiesce to a deteriorating market) nor the negative wealth effect of a decline in housing prices.The virtuous cycle of 2002-07 is over. The equity markets are currently moving on the fumes of that past cycle. | 1.9% | 0.1% | -3.8% | -20.3% | + |
| 9/4/07 | A continued rise in equities? From my perch — no Cannes do. | -1.2% | 3.4% | -0.6% | -16.6% | + |
| 8/21/07 | I do not believe that the equity markets’ decline is anywhere near over, and I do believe that the recent dip has not incorporated the full impact of the deteriorating credit cycle. …a cumulative decline of 20%-25% would not be surprising. | -1.0% | 4.9% | 0.8% | -10.7% | + |
| 8/13/07 | …investors today might be advised to now concern themselves with return of capital; it is likely too early to be concerned with return on capital. …the outlook for equities has turned sour. We will have vicious rallies in the bear market that I envision, but they will be fakeouts. Buy on the dip? Not with my investors’ money. | -0.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | -11.0% | + |
| 8/6/07 | While the U.S. equity market is currently oversold on a near-term basis, the stock market’s salad days appear to be over as the intermediate-term outlook has clouded. | -1.0% | 0.3% | 2.8% | -13.7% | + |
| 7/31/07 | The multiple signs of deterioration suggest the possibility of the first 10%+ correction in over four years… | 1.5% | 0.6% | 5.5% | -13.4% | – |
| 7/23/07 | …stocks will likely move lower… It’s time to panic. | -4.4% | -6.1% | -0.1% | -18.7% | + |
| 7/2/07 | Stocks are overvalued and due for a fall. … the fundamental backdrop for rising equities is withering. | -0.6% | -3.5% | 0.5% | -16.9% | + |
| 6/25/07 | Do not expect a sleepy summer as the investment ride promises to become increasingly more volatile and wild in the months ahead. | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | -14.3% | – |
| 6/7/07 | When you take a broad market perspective, the case for short-selling remains compelling. | 2.2% | 2.8% | -1.2% | -8.9% | – |
| 5/10/07 | …I Am Shorting the Market! | 0.5% | 0.2% | -0.6% | -6.8% | – |
| 3/12/07 | …the credit contagion that started with the fungus of subprime lending…should have a pronounced negative effect on personal consumption, corporate profits and stock prices. | -0.3% | 2.3% | 7.2% | -6.5% | – |
| 2/27/07 | …the opportunities on the dark (short side) have never been more attractive just as the signs of a breakdown of the impressive bull market run have begun to appear… | -0.3% | 1.3% | 8.3% | -4.9% | – |
| 2/23/07 | The sky might be falling … as raindrops will likely fall on the head of the capital markets. | -4.4% | -0.9% | 4.9% | -4.9% | + |
| 2/7/07 | We enter 2007 in which most investors hold the highest degree of confidence in rising prices for their stock holdings. They too might be disappointed as the year progresses as the hidden fragility of an overpriced, overleveraged world will soon be revealed. | 0.4% | -3.3% | 4.3% | -7.6% | – |
| 1/25/07 | …the end of the market rise might be at hand — sooner rather than later. | 1.5% | 1.8% | 5.0% | -4.3% | – |
| 12/11/06 | Stocks begin 2007 in the way they ended 2006 — very strong — and the S&P 500 Index temporarily breaches the 1450 level in February. But, by the end of the second quarter,…stocks drop by nearly 15% and remain relatively range-bound for the balance of the year. The S&P 500 Index ends the year at around 1250, dropping by about 11% in 2007. | 0.7% | 1.3% | -1.8% | 3.9% | – |
| 11/28/06 | Equities remain overvalued and are unprepared for the adverse economic outcomes that flow from a far different set of influences that will upend growth. | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 6.2% | – |
| 10/31/06 | As night follows day, today’s chorus of booyahs will be replaced by a dose of reality in the months to come. | 0.4% | 1.6% | 4.9% | 9.0% | – |
| 9/25/06 | …with the air coming out of two bubbles at the same time, a more prudent approach to the capital markets seems a reasonable course of action. | 0.4% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 15.1% | – |
| 8/7/06 | Profiling the 2006-2007 Bear Market: …the second stage will crystallize over the next several months. …The final and third stage of the anticipated Bear will be the most painful. | -0.6% | 1.9% | 7.2% | 13.9% | – |
| 7/31/06 | …color me more bearish after last week’s sharp ascent in the worldwide stock markets. | -0.1% | 2.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | – |
| 6/26/06 | The higher volatility of the last few months is a major change in market character and rising volatility is almost always associated with declining markets. | 2.4% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 20.2% | – |
