As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the market commentary of David Nassar via MarketWatch for November 2004 through May 2006. David Nassar is the chairman and chief executive of MarketWise.com, “a company built by traders and investors offering quality university level education with enduring benefits.” Their mission is “to support traders and investors in their quest to achieve financial freedom and success, while sharing the passion and trading skills of our instructors with our students.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- He uses a combination of fundamental factors and technical factors to derive his forecasts, leaning substantially toward the latter for short-term predictions.
- No commentary from Mr. Nassar is available over a period when the stock market has significantly declined. If he has a bullish bias, it would not show up in this sample.
- He sometimes also speculates about the prospects for sectors, commodities and individual stocks. We do not evaluate those specific recommendations.
- David Nassar’s forecast sample size is small and the sample period short, so confidence in the measurement of his accuracy is low.
- David Nassar’s column has been discontinued.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: David Nassar via MarketWatch.com | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 5/26/06 | …as we move into more choppy waters, it would be smart for investors to stand aside and let the trends turn back positive (remember, cash is also a position) or begin to acquire the skills of trading. | -1.2% | -1.1% | 1.2% | 20.0% | + |
| 3/27/06 | …the benefit of the doubt does belong to the bulls, but that doesn’t mean that I want to back up the truck and buy the market. …remain selective and risk averse. | -0.3% | 0.3% | -4.4% | 9.2% | + |
| 2/24/06 | …we will see the next leg lower before we see the next leg higher. | -0.2% | 0.9% | -2.4% | 8.8% | + |
| 2/9/06 | …we must be more cautious and risk averse. … I am now cautiously bullish. | 2.0% | 1.6% | 4.7% | 15.2% | – |
| 1/27/06 | …January will be a positive month and that should bode well for the rest of the year as well. | -1.5% | -0.2% | 2.0% | 12.6% | + |
| 1/13/06 | ..give this market a moment to digest these gains. | -1.8% | -0.9% | 0.1% | 11.1% | + |
| 1/5/06 | …you should be using this rally to rid your portfolio of weak stocks which may have benefited from the rise and tighten up stops. Going forward, I am bullish on the overall market. | 1.0% | -0.7% | 3.0% | 11.1% | + |
| 12/23/05 | …expect quiet overall trading through the end of the year. | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 12.3% | + |
| 12/8/05 | …selling has the potential to bring the S&P 500 back down near support at 1245. | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 12.4% | – |
| 12/1/05 | …a “sustainable growth” rally (expected for the weeks ahead). | -0.7% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 11.9% | – |
| 11/18/05 | …we must remain long as long as the market is advancing. | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 12.6% | + |
| 11/3/05 | …it would not surprise me to see 1320 or better for the S&Ps within the next few months…the benefit of any doubt belongs to the bulls. | 0.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 13.4% | + |
| 10/28/05 | The trend, while in jeopardy, is still on the side of the bulls. | 1.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 14.1% | + |
| 10/20/05 | …the bulls have since gained the upper hand. …the storm is clearing. | 0.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 16.9% | + |
| 10/13/05 | Is the market at a buy point? I say soon, very soon. | 0.1% | 4.9% | 9.3% | 15.9% | + |
| 10/6/05 | …higher prices and inflation will continue to weigh on the broad market. | -1.2% | 2.4% | 6.9% | 13.6% | + |
| 9/23/05 | …the rally broken. My hope is that readers…were stopped out. …we must consider the next possible levels of support. | 1.1% | -1.3% | 3.9% | 10.0% | – |
| 9/14/05 | …I am fully bullish above the 1225 level. …weakness within a bullish trend is a buying opportunity. | -1.4% | -4.1% | 2.7% | 7.7% | – |
| 9/7/05 | …is the move over? The answer is no — it is only beginning. …I am fully bullish above the 1225 level. | -0.7% | -3.6% | 2.1% | 5.1% | – |
| 9/1/05 | …the market is currently showing uncertainty which I think is best interpreted as a correction through time that may last up to the next two to three weeks. | 1.6% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 6.4% | – |
| 8/24/05 | …I certainly would prefer to be in cash or long the market over being short in the current environment. | 0.9% | 0.5% | 3.7% | 7.6% | + |
| 8/17/05 | …the bullish trend is still lightly intact. | -0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 6.3% | + |
| 8/11/05 | …the bull market is firmly intact. [Be] long with stops. | -1.5% | 0.2% | -1.6% | 3.9% | – |
| 8/3/05 | …the path of least resistance in the market is higher. | -1.3% | -1.9% | -3.1% | 2.5% | – |
| 7/27/05 | …the market will either moves sideways (consolidates) while it digests its gains and then regain its strength or move directly into higher ground with little consolidation at all. Either way, the bulls will remain in control. | 0.7% | -2.0% | -3.0% | 3.2% | – |
| 7/13/05 | I’m ready for the bulls to run again…it is time to be positioned for the long side by finding low risk entries. | 1.0% | 1.2% | -2.9% | 0.9% | + |
| 7/6/05 | I like the market above 1205. | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 6.1% | + |
| 6/29/05 | …the most likely scenario is for these gains not to hold but instead for a lower low to be put in that would hold above 1180 and then a week or so of corrective action before pushing higher again. I continue to be bullish on this market, I just do not think we are at an ideal entry point until we see a slightly deeper pullback. | -0.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 6.7% | + |
| 6/14/05 | …I like the market for the coming week or so. …I believe the path is higher. | 0.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | + |
| 6/7/05 | …is there juice left in the orange? Yes, but what is more clear is that the risk of finding out how much more juice is left in the current rally…isn’t worth it. | 0.6% | 0.1% | 1.7% | 4.6% | + |
| 6/2/05 | …it is time to take some chips off the table. | -0.3% | -0.8% | 0.3% | 4.9% | + |
| 5/23/05 | …stay the course of being long the market. | -0.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 6.6% | + |
| 5/17/05 | …the equity markets have far more upside than downside. | 1.7% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 7.9% | + |
| 5/11/05 | I believe a rally will catch the market and analysts off guard, and the summer doldrums seems to be the likely period when it will occur. | 1.2% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 10.5% | + |
| 4/26/05 | …we remain cautious and in cash. | 0.8% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 13.8% | – |
| 4/19/05 | …cash is still king for now, and until leadership through stable oil prices and revenue growth is achieved, the best play is to remain cautiously bullish — awaiting that right moment to strike. That moment will likely come soon. | -0.1% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 13.7% | + |
| 4/13/05 | …cash is the smartest position to be as we move into the heart of earnings season next week. | -3.1% | -1.2% | 4.1% | 9.5% | + |
| 3/29/05 | …our views of a stronger market ahead far outweigh a weaker one. | 1.4% | -0.8% | 2.2% | 11.6% | + |
| 3/24/05 | …sit on the sidelines. | 0.1% | -0.8% | 3.6% | 10.4% | + |
| 3/17/05 | …the bias is still to the long side of the market. | -1.6% | -3.7% | 1.4% | 9.0% | – |
| 3/9/05 | Geopolitical concerns aside, rising gas prices and a weaker dollar, the market has legs and it wants to run. | -1.6% | -2.1% | -0.8% | 6.4% | – |
| 2/23/05 | I believe the downturn to be transitory; it will quickly pass. As mid-April ushers in first-quarter earnings, I believe we will experience a bullish reaction similar to that seen with fourth-quarter 2004 earnings. | 1.6% | -1.6% | 0.3% | 8.7% | – |
| 12/28/04 | The holiday season trade can at times be very tricky and downright deceiving to traders who are enjoying the holidays and tilted more bullish than normal. | -2.1% | -3.2% | -4.0% | 3.4% | + |
| 11/10/04 | …entertain the idea of a 3-4 month rally as a pile of cash is most likely willing to try to get long and the retail community comes off of the sidelines going into the first quarter of 2005. | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 6.2% | + |
