We evaluate here forecasts for the overall stock market from the commentaries of Comstock Partners since March 2005. The Comstock partners are Charlie Minter and Marty Weiner, who analyze “economic and financial conditions from a long-term macro-economic perspective and [make] adjustments based on cyclical and shorter-term considerations” to evaluate the prospects for “various asset classes including domestic and foreign stocks, bonds, currencies and derivatives including indices and options.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- As self-described above, Comstock bases market outlooks mostly on macroeconomic considerations, with considerable focus on the housing industry and the inflation-deflation (business) cycle over the sample period.
- Comstock’s outlook for the U.S. stock market is negative over the entire sample period. They report on 10/2/08 that they “have been very negative on the stock market and economy ever since we first started writing these comments at the beginning of 2000.” The advance of the S&P 500 index from about 800 to about 1550 from 2003-2007 was to them not worth the risk of owning stocks.
- Although they issue weekly market commentaries, their forecast horizon is often difficult to decipher but seems mostly tilted toward the longer term. We therefore evaluate their forecasts mostly based on the three-month and one-year forward performance of the S&P 500 index.
- We skip commentaries that do not include a clear forecast for the overall stock market. They seem to forecast a little more frequently and explicitly when the stock market is declining than when it is advancing.
- Comstock Partners’ forecast sample is modest in the context of the forecast horizon, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of their accuracy.
Separately, note that the defensive Comstock Capital Value A (DRCVX) has an annualized load-adjusted total return of -10.8% / -8.2% / -18.5% / -23.0% over the past 10/5/3/1 years as of the end of October 2012.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Comstock Partners via comstockfunds.com | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 12/13/12 | In our view the market has gone about as far as it can go on some shaky assumptions. The downside risk is substantial. | 1.7% | 3.7% | 10.0% | – | |
| 11/15/12 | …the factors that have sparked the stock market in the last few years have come to an end. In our view, this is readily apparent in the change in trend since the peak on September 14th. We think that date will turn out to be the top for some time to come. | 4.1% | 5.7% | 12.3% | 32.1% | – |
| 11/8/12 | …market has probably made a cyclical top within an ongoing secular bear market…the market has a long way to go on the downside. | -1.8% | 3.0% | 10.2% | 28.3% | – |
| 10/25/12 | …the market is in for a rough period in the months ahead. | 0.3% | -0.2% | 6.7% | 24.3% | – |
| 10/18/12 | The stock market has overly discounted an optimistic outlook and is now vulnerable to a severe decline. | -3.0% | -4.8% | 2.4% | 20.2% | + |
| 10/11/12 | The market is facing severe headwinds in the period ahead and is showing early signs of topping out. | 1.7% | -4.1% | 2.6% | 21.0% | + |
| 8/23/12 | The market is giving signs that it has discounted any possible good news and that the rally is over. …Technically, the market appears to be in the process of completing a top. | -0.2% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 16.8% | – |
| 8/9/12 | We continue to believe that a major downturn in the market is ahead. | 0.9% | 1.9% | -1.8% | 18.4% | – |
| 7/27/12 | In the current cycle the S&P 500 peaked at 1419 on April 2nd, this year, and dropped to 1278 on June 1st, a 9% drop over 2 months. The following rally has so far topped on July 19th, a gain of almost 8% over 7 weeks. These are within the parameters of prior bear markets. If this market plays out as prior bear markets, which we expect, the next decline will be extremely severe. | -1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 23.4% | – |
| 6/21/12 | … the April 2nd peak marked the top of the entire three-year rally dating back to March 2009, and a new cyclical decline has begun. | 0.3% | 1.9% | 10.2% | 21.7% | – |
| 6/7/12 | The action is highly reminiscent of early 2000 and late 200…the downtrend has a long way to go before bottoming. | 1.1% | 2.8% | 6.7% | 24.4% | – |
| 5/31/12 | …the market is headed much lower, although the hope of investors that central banks can halt the decline will undoubtedly lead to intermittent rallies that are doomed to fail. | 0.4% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 23.8% | – |
| 5/17/12 | …the correction is only the beginning of a major downturn. At current levels the downside risks are still far greater than the potential upside rewards. | 1.2% | 3.1% | 7.7% | 26.5% | – |
| 5/3/12 | … the market is in a topping process and will break 1357 on the downside on the way to significantly lower levels. | -2.4% | -8.1% | -1.2% | 16.9% | + |
| 4/26/12 | All in all, the economic recovery is not sustainable…the stock market is in for a rude awakening. | -0.6% | -5.9% | -4.4% | 14.1% | + |
| 4/12/12 | …this is just a temporary bounce that will fail and make new lows. We believe that the downside risk is substantial. | -0.8% | -2.5% | -3.3% | 11.1% | – |
| 3/29/12 | The market is heavily overbought, sentiment is extremely high, daily new highs are falling and volume is both low and declining. In our view the odds of a significant decline are high. | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.1% | 10.7% | + |
| 3/22/12 | …the technical position of the market looks very weak to us (and the swings from up about 100% and down about 50% we believe will continue, with the next move down)… | 0.8% | -1.9% | -2.7% | 12.7% | – |
| 3/8/12 | The stock market is…overbought and overvalued… earnings estimates are being revised down. The odds of a significant downturn remain high. | 2.7% | 1.2% | -3.7% | 14.4% | – |
| 3/1/12 | At current levels the downside risks are far greater than the potential upside rewards. | -0.6% | 2.5% | -4.4% | 12.4% | – |
| 2/9/12 | All in all, both the U.S. and global economies are likely to encounter rough sledding in 2012, a factor not discounted at current stock market prices. | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 12.5% | – |
| 1/26/12 | The stock market strength assumes that the economy is getting stronger and that company earnings will remain at elevated levels. We think that this will not be the case, and that the market is subject to substantial downside risk. | 0.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 13.6% | – |
| 1/19/12 | The upshot will be heavy downward revisions in upcoming corporate earnings estimates…the current market rally does not have far to go and the downside risks are high. | 0.3% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 13.7% | – |
| 12/15/11 | All in all, the negative fallout from the EU sovereign debt crisis and the outlook for the U.S. economy are likely to have a strong downward pull on the stock market. …we remain bearish. | 3.1% | 7.6% | 15.5% | 18.7% | – |
| 11/3/11 | …the 2011 lows are likely to be tested and breached with a test of the 2009 lows to follow. | -1.7% | -0.3% | 6.6% | 9.2% | – |
| 10/27/11 | …we believe that the current rally will not last much longer and that the lows of 2009 will eventually be retested. | -1.8% | -7.2% | 2.5% | 11.1% | + |
| 10/6/11 | We still do not expect any rally in the S&P 500 to break through the resistance of 1250, and we still believe that we will eventually test or break the March 2009 low of 666. | 3.3% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 23.7% | – |
| 9/8/11 | …the market rhythm we’ve described is forecasting…a stock market test of the March 2009 S&P 500 low of 670. Any attempted rallies probably will not exceed the resistance at 1250 and should be sold… | 2.0% | -2.6% | 6.1% | 20.9% | – |
| 8/25/11 | …sell these rallies. We don’t expect the S&P 500 to rise above the breakdown price of about 1250… | 3.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 21.6% | – |
| 8/18/11 | …the market has now entered a major downtrend…there will undoubtedly be some more sharp rallies that will be interpreted as new bull markets. In our view, however, the bear market has only begun, and has a long way to go. | 1.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 23.9% | – |
| 8/4/11 | We still see rough sledding for the market in the period ahead as investor attitudes shift from “buy the dips” to “sell the rallies”. | -2.3% | -2.2% | -2.2% | 16.8% | + |
| 7/28/11 | The stock market looks highly vulnerable to a major downturn no matter how the debt ceiling issue is resolved. | -7.7% | -9.5% | -5.5% | 6.0% | + |
| 6/30/11 | …the next important move will be down. | 1.8% | -2.6% | -12.8% | 4.0% | + |
| 6/2/11 | …QE3 will only become a reality after the economy deteriorates…by that time most portfolio managers will have thrown in the towel, and the market will be far lower. | -1.8% | 2.0% | -7.6% | -2.1% | + |
| 5/19/11 | The S&P…is most likely in the process of forming a top…the potential breakdown is close at hand. | -1.3% | -4.9% | -11.1% | -2.0% | + |
| 5/12/11 | …both fundamental and technical factors point to a coming major decline in stock prices… | -0.4% | -5.7% | -16.9% | -1.3% | + |
| 5/5/11 | The chances are…high that this is a real tipping point for both stocks and commodities with a major downturn more likely than a mere correction. | 1.0% | -3.7% | -5.6% | 2.1% | + |
| 4/22/11 | The coming end to QE2 is potentially negative for both the market and the economy. …With no help from the fiscal side the likely outcome is a major decline in asset values including stocks and commodities… It may well be that somewhere down the road there is another round of quantitative easing, but not before some severe economic and financial problems… | 1.9% | -1.4% | 0.7% | 4.8% | – |
| 4/14/11 | …both the fundamental and technical aspects of the market are now in gear and that stocks are now in a topping formation with a major downside move in sight. | 1.7% | 1.1% | -0.4% | 5.4% | – |
| 4/7/11 | Once again the market is rising despite a spate of negative factors that are widely known to the investing public. …however, a number of factors are indicating that the good fortune is about to end soon. | -1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | – |
| 3/24/11 | The denial phase is the initial downleg from the bull market high, and we are only at the start of that downleg now. …investors are in a state of denial similar to when they denied the dot-com boom was a serious problem in early 2000, or that subprime mortgages were a problem in 2007. | 1.2% | 2.0% | -1.7% | 7.9% | – |
| 3/10/11 | The party is over. …this will prove to be a significant turning point and the trend will now be to the downside… | -1.7% | 2.6% | -1.2% | 7.8% | – |
| 3/3/11 | …the market remains at risk for a significant decline while the potential upside rewards are limited. Stocks are discounting everything that can possibly go right and are virtually ignoring the numerous factors that can go wrong. | -2.7% | 0.1% | -1.2% | 0.9% | 0 |
| 2/24/11 | It is…likely that the Mid-East turmoil is the catalyst that finally ends this secular bear rally and starts the market on a downward course. | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 5.1% | – |
| 2/3/11 | …the current excitement about the market reminds us of the extreme bullishness exhibited near the tops in early 2000 and late 2007. The outcome is likely to be the same. | 1.1% | 0.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | – |
| 1/20/11 | …a significant correction or worse is highly likely. | 1.5% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | – |
| 1/6/11 | At these levels the risks far outweigh the rewards. | 0.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 1.4% | – |
| 12/16/10 | The market looks overbought and overextended, and is showing signs of an imminent top…potential upside progress is limited while downside risk is high. | 1.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | -3.0% | – |
| 12/9/10 | …the move off the March 2009 bottom has discounted a lot of good news while ignoring all the real pitfalls that may be ahead…the market is substantially overvalued…downside risks far outweigh the potential upside rewards… | 0.8% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 0.3% | – |
| 11/18/10 | …the stock market is discounting far better results than the economy can produce in the period ahead. As was true at the market tops in early 2000 and late 2007 the market is once again misreading the negative signals that are evident all around us. | -0.6% | 4.2% | 12.0% | -0.3% | – |
| 10/28/10 | …economic growth will remain under the long-term average with a return to recession a strong possibility. This outcome is not reflected in current stock prices. | 3.1% | 0.3% | 9.8% | 5.9% | – |
| 10/21/10 | …the market is highly vulnerable in the period ahead. | 0.3% | 1.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | – |
| 10/7/10 | On Tuesday the market soared on the grounds that global efforts to engage in another round of monetary ease and devalue currencies would boost economies around the world. We think that the market’s initial reaction is a wrong-footed move that will soon be reversed… | 1.4% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 3.2% | – |
| 9/30/10 | The stock market rally is on shaky ground and severely overextended. | 1.5% | 3.7% | 10.4% | -3.7% | – |
| 9/23/10 | …the economy will continue to disappoint for some time to come. That is not being discounted at current market levels. | 1.5% | 5.2% | 11.5% | 3.4% | – |
| 9/9/10 | …the market is in a volatile trading range that is part of a topping formation much like the topping process in early 2000 and late 2007. The trading range is likely to be violated on the downside… | 1.9% | 5.5% | 10.8% | 5.3% | – |
| 8/26/10 | Yesterday [the S&P 500 Index] found support at about 1040 for the third time, although it has temporarily dipped to 1010 on July 1st. …these support lines will be pierced and the market is likely to decline significantly from there. | 4.1% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 15.6% | – |
| 8/12/10 | …efforts to get out of…bullish positions will drive the market lower. …Near-term S&P 500 support at 1088 has already been violated and 1010 is next. …an eventual test of the March 2009 lows is a distinct possibility. | -0.7% | 3.5% | 12.0% | 11.2% | – |
| 8/5/10 | As it soon becomes obvious that the current loss of economic momentum is more than just a pause…the market will break down from its current S&P 500 trading range between 1217 and 1010 and test the March 2009 lows. | -3.7% | -1.9% | 6.0% | -0.6% | – |
| 7/22/10 | …we don’t expect the economy or stock market to perform well until the consumers rebuild their balance sheets– and that will take a few years. | 0.7% | -2.0% | 6.6% | 22.3% | – |
| 7/15/10 | Our favorite means of determining a fair valuation is to smooth the reported earnings over a 9 year period of time by taking the 9 year average and grow the average for 4.5 years (one half the 9 years) at 6% (where earnings have grown historically) to arrive at the $64 of smoothed earnings. …this market will not bottom out until it reaches 10 times or lower the smoothed earnings [640 or lower]. | -0.3% | -1.6% | 6.7% | 19.1% | – |
| 6/24/10 | The market, at current levels is discounting a far stronger economy than is likely to develop…further deterioration in economic growth–which we expect–will drive the market well below the 1040 level…an eventual test of the March 2009 lows [is] not out of the question. | -4.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 19.2% | – |
| 6/17/10 | …the deleveraging process has a long way to go. We are therefore maintaining out bearish position on the market. | -3.8% | -4.0% | 0.8% | 14.5% | + |
| 6/10/10 | …the stock market has not discounted the potentially deteriorating housing picture that will probably hit the headlines within the next few months. …the recent 1040 bottom in the S&P 500 will eventually give way and decline to significantly lower lows. | 2.7% | -0.7% | 1.1% | 17.0% | – |
| 6/3/10 | At current levels the stock market is substantially overvalued and subject to severe downside risk. | -1.4% | -7.3% | -4.9% | 16.6% | + |
| 5/27/10 | …it is hard to conclude that the stock market is cheap or that it is oversold on anything other than the very short-term. | -3.5% | -2.6% | -4.3% | 22.0% | + |
| 5/20/10 | The recent decline has been extreme in the short-term, and some sharp rallies are likely. However, we believe that none of these rallies will hold and that the eventual market bottom will be far lower than today’s level. | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 22.9% | – |
| 5/6/10 | Although we’ll probably see a lot of wild swings in the days ahead, it is likely that a major market decline is now underway. | 2.6% | -6.9% | -0.1% | 19.3% | – |
| 4/22/10 | At current levels the stock market is substantially overvalued and subject to severe downside risk. | -0.2% | -10.0% | -11.5% | 10.5% | + |
| 4/15/10 | The near-euphoria in the market over the perceived surge in the economy is highly misleading…and likely to lead to investor disappointment in the period ahead. | -0.2% | -6.3% | -9.6% | 8.9% | + |
| 4/1/10 | …the market, as it did in early 2000 and late 2007, is once again discounting a “goldilocks” outlook that is unlikely to occur. | 1.4% | 2.1% | -12.5% | 13.1% | – |
| 3/25/10 | … the market is seriously overestimating the strength of the economy… | 1.1% | 4.0% | -6.3% | 12.4% | – |
| 3/4/10 | …the market…is discounting events that will not happen…the disappointment will be severe…this is all part of a topping formation that will be followed by a substantial decline in the period ahead. | 2.4% | 5.7% | -2.2% | 16.7% | – |
| 2/18/10 | The strong market rally since the March low has discounted a lot more than the world’s economies are capable of delivering, and equity prices are facing the prospect of readjusting to reality. | -0.3% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 21.3% | – |
| 2/4/10 | …the market rally off the March bottom is over and that a major downturn is in store. | 1.4% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 24.1% | – |
| 1/21/10 | …those who brush off the relatively small recent decline as a tempest in a teapot are making the same mistake they made at the peak of the dot.com bubble in 2000 and the top of the housing-related boom in 2007. | -2.9% | -0.8% | 8.0% | 15.6% | – |
| 12/17/09 | Why We Remain Bearish: It is likely the recent rally has gone about as far as it can go without some proof that the economy can recover at a strong pace…this proof is not likely to come anytime soon. | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 14.5% | – |
| 12/10/09 | …the market, both fundamentally and technically, is setting up for a major decline. | -0.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 12.6% | – |
| 12/3/09 | …the stock market is severely overextended and subject to a major decline. | 0.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 11.3% | – |
| 11/19/09 | If fundamental and technical conditions deteriorate as we expect, prospective purchasers will become less anxious to buy while sellers will be more willing to sell, and the market will decline… | -0.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 7.8% | – |
| 11/12/09 | This process we expect will be associated with a weak economy and the continuance of the secular bear market in stocks which started in 2000. | 0.7% | 2.5% | -1.1% | 8.4% | – |
| 10/22/09 | …anyway we look at it, the market is overvalued. | -2.5% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 8.5% | – |
| 10/15/09 | …the stock market is off on another binge not based on reality. Such flights into fantasy always end badly. | -0.3% | -0.3% | 4.7% | 6.3% | – |
| 10/8/09 | …many investors [believe] that we are undergoing a typical post-war V-type recovery. However,…there seems to be an equally large group that doesn’t believe in the “V” recovery, but see no choice but to join the herd. …almost always an indication of an impending market top. | 2.9% | 0.4% | 7.2% | 9.8% | – |
| 9/17/09 | …the market is overbought, overvalued, and subject to major downside risk. | -1.4% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 7.0% | – |
| 9/10/09 | The stock market is discounting a far more optimistic picture and will be highly disappointed. …risks are heavily to the downside. | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 7.4% | – |
| 8/27/09 | …the stock market is discounting a far rosier scenario, and will probably be exceedingly disappointed as events unfold in the period ahead. | -2.7% | 3.1% | 7.2% | 1.8% | – |
| 8/20/09 | …the most likely outcome is either continued recession or an exceedingly weak recovery that will not validate current stock market expectations. | 2.3% | 5.7% | 10.2% | 4.4% | – |
| 7/30/09 | All in all it seems to us that the market is far ahead of itself and that the outlook is not likely to validate the big rise in stocks… | 1.0% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 13.6% | – |
| 7/23/09 | The market now needs more fuel to power the rally, and this is not likely anytime soon. | 1.1% | 5.1% | 11.8% | 14.1% | – |
| 7/16/09 | …further substantial upside…is a ways off. | 3.8% | 6.7% | 14.1% | 15.2% | – |
| 7/9/09 | …the bear market rally has ended and a renewed downleg is underway. …the economy will remain weak for an extended period of time with subdued earnings growth and sub-par P/E ratios. | 6.6% | 14.5% | 19.5% | 24.1% | – |
| 6/25/09 | It is likely the recent rally has gone about as far as it can go without some proof that the economy can recover at a strong pace, and we think that this proof is not likely to come anytime soon. | -2.6% | 6.7% | 15.3% | 13.1% | – |
| 6/4/09 | … the market is now way ahead of itself. …risk is now once again heavily to the downside. | 0.3% | -4.6% | 5.9% | 12.7% | – |
| 5/21/09 | …it’s highly likely that the traditional testing of the market bottom (666) is underway. | 3.5% | 0.5% | 12.2% | 20.9% | – |
| 4/16/09 | …we expect the S&P 500 low of 666 to be broken and the market to eventually reach a bottom somewhere below the 600 area. Other valuation measures support the view that the market rally will not continue (or at least not rise above the next resistance of 878 or at best the January high of 944). | -1.5% | 2.0% | 7.8% | 39.5% | – |
| 4/9/09 | We continue to view the current strength as a classic bear market rally…directly off a March 9 S&P 500 low of 666 without the retest that typically occurs at major bottoms. At the very least a retest of that low is a high probability, and it could very well fail. | 1.5% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 41.3% | – |
| 3/26/09 | …the market did not make a significant low in early March, but instead is experiencing an oversold bear market rally that could meet resistance in the 838-to-878 area on the S&P 500, before resuming the secular bear market. | 0.2% | 3.0% | 8.2% | 40.9% | – |
| 3/19/09 | …the market has not made its bear market low on either a technical basis or fundamental basis. | 6.2% | 6.2% | 16.2% | 49.8% | – |
| 3/12/09 | …the market is very oversold with record negative sentiment in some indicators. This could produce a counter trend rally of as much as 20-25% at any time. …Nevertheless we think that the market has not made a secular bottom. | 4.4% | 14.4% | 25.1% | 54.4% | 0 |
| 2/19/09 | We…have to revise our target on the S&P 500, at the secular low, to at best decline to 600. | -3.4% | -1.3% | 16.6% | 40.5% | – |
| 2/12/09 | …the stock market has not yet seen a bottom. | -7.8% | -9.7% | 5.8% | 31.6% | + |
| 2/5/09 | … even on our conservative $64 trendline estimate for 2009, a trough P/E of 10 would result in the S&P 500 declining to around the 640 level-and it could be worse… | -1.3% | -20.0% | 8.7% | 26.6% | + |
| 1/15/09 | …we are looking, at best, for the S&P 500 to bottom at about 650 to 700…more liquidation of equities and equity mutual funds by the public before the stock market reaches the significant bear market bottom… | -1.4% | -6.5% | 2.6% | 34.9% | + |
| 1/7/09 | …there is more fear of missing the next bull market than fear of losing more money. This could easily drive the S&P 500 up another 100 or 200 points and if that takes place it will be a very good selling opportunity… | -7.1% | -4.2% | -10.0% | 26.5% | – |
| 12/18/08 | …investors have priced in the current bad news, but, perhaps, remain too sanguine about the length and depth of the recession. | -2.1% | -5.1% | -13.2% | 26.3% | + |
| 12/11/08 | …if the market bottom eventually occurs well into 2009 as we believe, a bear market rally is a strong possibility between now and then. Therefore, although we believe the market lows are still ahead us, the road to the bottom is likely to be choppy and highly volatile, ending finally in a massive capitulation on the downside. | 1.3% | -0.2% | -13.4% | 26.8% | 0 |
| 12/4/08 | …although we think there is some possibility that the market has already bottomed, it is more likely that the market decline still has quite a bit further to go. | 3.4% | 10.6% | -19.1% | 29.2% | + |
| 11/13/08 | …the market will reach our 700 objective before the secular bear market ends. | -17.4% | -4.7% | -9.3% | 21.8% | + |
| 11/6/08 | We are getting closer to the point in the stock market where we will turn more bullish, but we are not there yet. | 0.7% | 0.5% | -4.0% | 20.8% | + |
| 10/30/08 | …the market will bottom at approximately 10 times or less for the S&P 500. This would take the S&P 500 down to 700 or under. …the last stage of the bull market which we have discussed in many prior comments — “Fear & Capitulation” has still not been reached. | -5.2% | -14.5% | -13.4% | 9.6% | + |
| 10/16/08 | …the market, for the first time in a long while, is now in a zone of fair valuation, although it is far from cheap. If history is any guide the market can still go a lot lower, and probably will. | -7.4% | -7.7% | -10.9% | 15.3% | + |
| 10/9/08 | …the market has further to go on the downside. …Until the third stage of the bear market is complete, and the fear and capitulation become even more obvious, the market remains extremely vulnerable. | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 17.9% | + |
| 10/2/08 | …the market will go down much further whether the bill passes or not. | -18.3% | -13.1% | -18.9% | -5.3% | + |
| 9/25/08 | …a major market decline seems to be in store. | -7.8% | -27.5% | -28.6% | -12.3% | + |
| 9/19/08 | …once the immediate euphoria runs its course, we think the market will still be faced with chronic problems that offer no easy solution. | -3.3% | -23.9% | -27.9% | -15.5% | + |
| 9/11/08 | …stocks will continue declining throughout the rest of this year and into 2009. | -3.4% | -28.0% | -28.9% | -15.7% | + |
| 8/14/08 | We also expect the stock market to enter the last stage of the bear market soon and do not think the S&P 500 will exceed its 200 day moving average at around 1360-1365 before it resumes. | -1.2% | -7.8% | -30.5% | -23.5% | + |
| 8/7/08 | …we continue our very bearish position on the stock market as well as a negative view on commodities and a spreading global recession. We should soon enter, or maybe we have already started, the last stage of the bear market, “Fear & Capitulation”. | 2.1% | 0.1% | -20.6% | -21.5% | + |
| 7/31/08 | …the bear market is not over and will probably not end until the S&P 500 breaks down below the lows set in 2002 and 2003 just under 800. | -0.1% | 1.2% | -25.8% | -20.7% | + |
| 7/24/08 | …we are still in the secular bear market camp and believe we will enter the last stage of the bear market within a month or so and we don’t think the S&P 500 will rise above the 1360 area before the last stage begins. …We believe it will drive the S&P 500 low enough to take out the market lows of 2002 and 2003. | 1.2% | 3.2% | -28.4% | -21.8% | + |
| 7/7/08 | …we continue our very bearish position on the stock market… We should be going into the final phase of the bear market, “fear & capitulation” soon. | -1.9% | 2.6% | -11.0% | -29.5% | + |
| 6/26/08 | …the bear market has much further to go on the downside. | -1.6% | -3.8% | -7.6% | -28.4% | + |
| 6/19/08 | …the S&P 500 will trade below 800 within the next year or so and could trade below 700. | -4.4% | -6.2% | -13.9% | -33.3% | + |
| 5/29/08 | …the stock market has not come close to discounting the recession we believe our economy is in presently. …the stock market has resumed the major bear market trend… | 0.4% | -8.6% | -9.1% | -32.4% | + |
| 5/23/08 | …it will be difficult to make money from this level and you could lose a lot of money. | 0.7% | -4.5% | -7.1% | -34.1% | + |
| 5/15/08 | It is hard for us to believe the meltdown of this incredible bubble won’t drive the economy into a significant recession accompanied by a bear market in stocks. | -2.1% | -4.5% | -9.7% | -36.2% | + |
| 5/1/08 | It is hard for us to believe the meltdown of this incredible bubble won’t drive the economy into a significant recession accompanied by a bear market in stocks. | -1.8% | -2.0% | -9.2% | -36.1% | + |
| 4/17/08 | …it is far too early to look for a bottom in the market. | 1.7% | 4.4% | -8.8% | -37.7% | + |
| 4/10/08 | …let’s look at the three main factors to watch–the credit situation, the economy and valuation. On each of these the outlook is decidedly negative for the market. | 0.4% | 2.0% | -8.5% | -38.2% | + |
| 4/3/08 | …the market is not only discounting the end of the credit crisis, but a second half economic recovery as well. This is not likely to happen. | -0.6% | 2.8% | -6.2% | -39.0% | + |
| 3/20/08 | …it appears far too early to call an end to the decline at this time. | -1.1% | 4.4% | 0.6% | -39.4% | + |
| 3/13/08 | …it is far too optimistic to think that the economy will recover in the second half and that the stock market is bottoming now. | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | -40.8% | + |
| 3/6/08 | …the stock market has a long way to go on the downside… | 0.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | -44.8% | + |
| 2/28/08 | …the market has not priced in the highly negative current and prospective conditions in the credit markets and the economy. …this remains a highly risky market. | -4.6% | -3.3% | 1.7% | -49.1% | + |
| 2/7/08 | …it is far too early to look for a cyclical bottom in the market. | 0.9% | -4.8% | 4.5% | -38.1% | + |
| 1/31/08 | Don’t let the extreme volatility distract you from the potentially vicious stock market downtrend that is only in its early stages. …it is far too soon to be looking for anything more than a temporary bottom in the market, and that there is a long way to go on the downside in terms of either magnitude or time. | -3.0% | -3.4% | 2.2% | -39.2% | + |
| 1/24/08 | As we slide into the bear market don’t be fooled into thinking that a new bull market is starting with every rally. | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | -37.5% | + |
| 1/17/08 | …the market is headed far lower… At some point there will be a final capitulation… Until then, this remains a dangerous market. | -0.2% | 1.2% | 2.4% | -37.0% | + |
| 1/10/08 | …the bear market is only in its early stages. | -6.1% | -5.7% | -4.2% | -38.6% | + |
| 1/3/08 | The fundamental case for a bear market…is being increasingly supported by the deteriorating technical picture. | -1.9% | -4.6% | -5.4% | -35.4% | + |
| 12/27/07 | …the stock market has not even come close to discounting the recession…it has a long way to go on the downside as the developing economic news worsens. | -4.4% | -7.7% | -10.9% | -39.7% | + |
| 12/20/07 | …there is a long way to go on the downside… | 1.3% | -8.3% | -7.6% | -40.9% | + |
| 12/13/07 | .the probability of a serious market decline is extremely high at this time. | -1.9% | -7.2% | -13.5% | -38.6% | + |
| 12/6/07 | It is highly likely that the current market rally is just a bear market reaction… | -1.3% | -7.8% | -14.2% | -41.0% | + |
| 11/29/07 | …the stock market has not even come close to discounting the recession…it has a long way to go on the downside as the developing economic news worsens. | 2.6% | -0.1% | -9.5% | -42.2% | + |
| 11/15/07 | …the market is still a long way from discounting the high probability of recession. | -0.7% | -0.4% | -7.0% | -40.8% | + |
| 11/1/07 | …the market is likely to undergo a major decline. | -2.2% | -2.4% | -7.5% | -33.3% | + |
| 10/25/07 | …the news on the economy will get worse and the market will then react strongly on the downside. | -0.4% | -7.1% | -12.1% | -37.9% | + |
| 10/11/07 | The current market rally is based a number of dubious assumptions that are not likely to hold up. | -0.9% | -6.5% | -8.6% | -35.8% | + |
| 10/4/07 | A hard landing or recession that has not been discounted by the stock market remains a strong probability. | 0.7% | -2.2% | -6.2% | -35.4% | + |
| 9/27/07 | …since the stock market has not discounted a recession the downside risks are high. …The current rally has been a psychological reaction to the Fed rate cut and is likely to lose momentum soon as economic reality sets in. | 0.7% | 0.3% | -2.2% | -23.8% | + |
| 9/6/07 | That the stock market is a long way from discounting this probability is indicated by the current article in Barron’s titled “No Bears Here”. | 0.4% | 5.3% | -1.1% | -17.2% | + |
| 8/30/07 | …the stock market rally since the bottom is purely technical and that much more decline is ahead. | -0.3% | 6.1% | 0.8% | -12.5% | + |
| 8/23/07 | …a major bear market has already started and that, despite occasional sharp rallies, the overall trend is down. | -0.3% | 3.8% | -1.6% | -13.1% | + |
| 8/16/07 | The credit market problems and coming economic dislocations strongly suggests that a major bear market is now underway. | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | -10.2% | + |
| 8/9/07 | …risks to the stock market remain extremely high and far lower levels are likely. | -2.9% | -0.1% | 4.6% | -11.3% | + |
| 7/26/07 | …conditions seem ripe for a major market decline ahead. | -0.7% | -0.2% | 2.5% | -14.8% | + |
| 7/19/07 | …while we do not believe this Mr. Magoo market will stay strong we also know that there are times to “get out of the way”. This means that individual investors should cover any positions that have unlimited losses such as common stock shorts that have broken out or index future shorts. We still believe that positions like puts and other bearish limited loss positions make sense… | -4.5% | -6.9% | -0.9% | -17.8% | + |
| 6/21/07 | …the potential effects of the falling housing market on both the economy and the financial arena puts the stock market in an exceedingly risky position in the period ahead. | -1.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | -13.7% | + |
| 6/14/07 | …current risks in the market are extremely high. | -0.1% | 1.7% | -3.4% | -11.3% | + |
| 5/31/07 | Although the stock market is still fixated on the favorable forecast of a benign soft landing and eventual cut in interest rates, in our view the time is fast approaching when the incoming data renders that outlook no longer tenable. | -2.6% | -1.8% | -6.4% | -10.0% | + |
| 5/17/07 | … current risks in the market are extremely high. | -0.3% | 1.2% | -7.0% | -6.6% | + |
| 5/10/07 | …savvy hedge fund managers…continue to play the upward momentum until they see the end coming. We believe they will see that soon, and that the mad rush of everyone trying to get out the door at once will be something to behold. | 0.5% | 0.2% | -0.6% | -6.8% | + |
| 4/26/07 | The current upward momentum in the stock market reminds us a lot about the situation near the market peak in March 2000… | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | -7.3% | + |
| 3/8/07 | …what currently looks like a soft landing is probably only a temporary stopping point on the way to either a hard landing or recession. If so, last week’s technical trend break in the market is only the start of a serious decline. | -0.7% | 3.0% | 8.2% | -5.8% | – |
| 3/1/07 | It is probable that the decline marks an important turning point that is likely to lead to far lower prices. | -0.1% | 1.3% | 9.1% | -5.4% | – |
| 2/15/07 | …current market levels are unsustainable. The atmosphere is highly reminiscent of early 2000… | -0.4% | -3.8% | 3.9% | -6.6% | + |
| 2/1/07 | …this is a high-risk market that needs almost absolute perfection to make further upside progress from this point. | 0.2% | -5.0% | 3.5% | -7.6% | + |
| 1/25/07 | …we would be very surprised if the S&P 500 makes new all-time highs anytime soon. …the secular bear market remains in force, and is likely to resume soon. | 1.5% | 1.8% | 5.0% | -4.3% | – |
| 12/14/06 | The result is likely to be a hard landing or recession accompanied by a severe market decline. | -0.5% | 0.1% | -1.6% | 1.9% | – |
| 11/16/06 | The result is likely to be recession and a severe market decline. | 0.1% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 1.2% | – |
| 11/2/06 | …the next few months should clearly indicate that we are headed for a hard landing, resulting in a severe setback for a stock market that is discounting a benign soft landing. | 0.8% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | – |
| 10/26/06 | We would therefore be even more leery about trusting this stock market rally. | -1.6% | -0.5% | 2.3% | 11.5% | – |
| 9/21/06 | …the market has little upside potential and big downside risk. | 1.6% | 3.8% | 8.2% | 15.7% | – |
| 9/14/06 | …the stock market is in the same kind of denial it was in 2000 when the vast majority of strategists and economists already knew the dot-com bubble had burst, but mistakenly thought it would have little impact on the rest of the economy or on stocks. | 0.1% | 3.7% | 7.2% | 16.2% | – |
| 9/7/06 | …the odds of recession and a bear market are exceedingly high. | 1.7% | 4.3% | 9.3% | 13.7% | – |
| 8/24/06 | This has typically been a period where the market collapses as the focus of investors shifts from rising rates to a weakening economy and lower earnings. We think this process is about to begin. | 0.6% | 2.3% | 8.3% | 12.9% | – |
| 8/17/06 | …this is a deceptive rally that is the equivalent of the calm before the storm. | -0.1% | 1.8% | 7.4% | 12.8% | – |
| 8/10/06 | …the stock market is likely to decline significantly. | 2.0% | 2.2% | 8.7% | 10.6% | – |
| 7/20/06 | …strong probability of an upcoming bear market and recession. | 1.1% | 4.3% | 9.2% | 21.5% | – |
| 7/12/06 | …PE ratio will return to the past bear market trough levels of 10 times earnings or less. This means the S&P 500 would trade at 800 or less, if, and only if, the consensus earnings estimates of approximately $80 for 2006 and 2007 are realized. We happen to think there is a high probability of a recession, and if we are correct the $80 estimates will be too optimistic. | 0.1% | 1.0% | 7.3% | 23.1% | – |
| 6/29/06 | All of these factors indicate a strong probability of a sharply slower economy or outright recession as well as a major bear market. | -0.6% | 0.3% | 5.0% | 19.8% | – |
| 6/22/06 | …the latest market correction is the first leg down in a new cyclical bear market that is a continuation of the secular bear market that started in early 2000. | 2.2% | 1.2% | 6.4% | 20.9% | – |
| 6/15/06 | …upside potential is exceedingly small while the downside risks are great. | -0.8% | -1.7% | 4.9% | 20.4% | – |
| 6/1/06 | …a bear market and recession is even more likely than in prior periods of Fed tightening… | -2.2% | -1.2% | 1.4% | 18.0% | – |
| 5/25/06 | …the market appears to be in the process of shifting to a major downtrend. …the risk in the market remains at high levels. | 1.2% | -1.8% | 1.6% | 20.2% | – |
| 5/18/06 | …a tipping point has now been reached and that the cyclical trend has changed from bullish to bearish. While numerous rallies are likely, in our view the overall decline will be substantial. | 0.9% | -1.7% | 2.7% | 20.6% | – |
| 5/4/06 | With the S&P 500 still substantially overvalued, we believe that the risks far exceed the potential rewards at this time. | -0.5% | -3.6% | -2.6% | 13.7% | – |
| 4/20/06 | …a damaging recession and a continuation of the secular bear market is baked in the cake. | -0.1% | -3.4% | -3.9% | 14.0% | – |
| 4/13/06 | The weakening technical situation is a reflection of the declining fundamentals typically seen prior to bear markets and recessions. | 1.7% | 0.4% | -3.6% | 14.1% | – |
| 3/16/06 | …the market will soon stop cheering the impending end of Fed rate rises and start to worry about the severe impact of these rate rises on housing, consumer spending, the economy, and the stock market. | -0.3% | -1.5% | -5.8% | 9.9% | + |
| 3/9/06 | …the probabilities suggest limited upside potential and a major risk of significant decline. | 2.6% | 1.8% | -1.3% | 9.0% | – |
| 2/23/06 | …the late surge of individual investors into stocks is another sign of an impending top. | 0.1% | 1.2% | -2.4% | 9.2% | – |
| 2/2/06 | …risks to the still overvalued stock market are far higher than the complacent majority is willing to acknowledge. | -0.6% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 14.1% | – |
| 1/20/06 | …current market conditions are much more typical of a top than a bottom. | 1.8% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 12.9% | – |
| 1/12/06 | …the current rally has only increased the downside risks ahead. | -1.9% | -1.8% | 0.2% | 10.9% | – |
| 12/22/05 | …risks to the stock market are far higher than the complacent majority recognizes. | -1.6% | -0.3% | 2.7% | 12.5% | – |
| 12/8/05 | …almost all of the indicators we use to gauge the potential market direction are pointing downward. | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 12.4% | – |
| 12/1/05 | …monetary, economic and sentiment indicators point to great risk in the market at this juncture. | -0.7% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 11.9% | – |
| 11/25/05 | …downside risks far outweigh potential upside rewards. | -0.2% | -0.9% | 2.0% | 10.3% | – |
| 11/17/05 | …both on a technical and fundamental basis, that the bear market will soon resume. | 2.0% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 12.9% | – |
| 11/10/05 | …the current complacency and downright optimism in the stock market will prove to be yet another example (among many) of the majority being wrong at the turning point. | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 13.2% | – |
| 11/3/05 | …the eventual breakout will be to the downside, and the damage is likely to be severe. | 0.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 13.4% | – |
| 10/20/05 | …the secular bear market is resuming and the stock market could be turning very “ugly” over the next year to 18 months. | 0.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 16.9% | – |
| 10/13/05 | …we wouldn’t be surprised if the stock market dropped by 40-50% over the next year to 18 months…the S&P 500 down to the 600-700 level… | 0.1% | 4.9% | 9.3% | 15.9% | – |
| 10/6/05 | …the stock market remains in a precarious position and appears set to start the next downleg in the secular bear trend that began in early 2000. | -1.2% | 2.4% | 6.9% | 13.6% | – |
| 9/22/05 | …the S&P 500 will eventually reach 700 or less if the bear market troughs before the end of 2006… We don’t necessarily believe the bear market will trough before the end of 2006… | 1.1% | -2.9% | 3.7% | 10.0% | – |
| 9/15/05 | …trend is on the verge of turning down once more… | -1.1% | -3.4% | 3.2% | 7.4% | – |
| 9/8/05 | In October 1973, the market actually went sideways for two weeks after OPEC shut down oil exports to the West, and the pundits were similarly complacent. The market then dived 16% over the following six weeks and 45% over the next year. While the market may never be wrong, it often changes its mind, and we think that will be the case this time around. | -0.3% | -2.9% | 2.6% | 6.6% | – |
| 9/1/05 | …Katrina may well turn out to be the tipping point that trips up both the economy and the market. | 1.6% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 6.4% | – |
| 8/18/05 | …the upside is limited while the risk of a severe downturn is extremely high. | -0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 6.5% | – |
| 7/21/05 | …this is still a secular bear market with major unfinished business on the downside. | 1.4% | -0.6% | -4.0% | 3.4% | – |
| 7/14/05 | With the S&P 500 still selling at far above average valuations, and most investors bullish or complacent, we still think that the market is in for significant disappointment in the period ahead. | 0.0% | 0.3% | -3.4% | 0.8% | – |
| 6/23/05 | …the outcome is likely to be extremely unpleasant for the economy and for stocks. | -0.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 3.2% | – |
| 6/2/05 | …the market is in a secular decline that will resume shortly… | -0.3% | -0.8% | 0.3% | 4.9% | – |
| 5/26/05 | …the odds are high that the breakout from the present six-month trading range will be on the downside. | -0.1% | -0.6% | 1.0% | 6.1% | – |
| 5/12/05 | …the market is still highly vulnerable to a serious decline in the period ahead. | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 11.4% | – |
| 5/5/05 | … risks to the economy and stock market are exceedingly high. | -1.1% | 2.1% | 6.2% | 13.0% | – |
| 4/28/05 | …it is likely that positive returns from current levels will be exceedingly difficult to achieve for years to come. | 2.6% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 14.9% | – |
| 4/21/05 | …it is likely that the 29-month cyclical bull market peaked at 1229 (S&P 500) on March 7. | -1.4% | 2.5% | 6.5% | 12.2% | – |
| 3/31/05 | Although the market appears short-term oversold and could rally some more, the action is probably indicative of an overall topping process that should lead to far lower levels. | 0.9% | -2.0% | 1.8% | 9.9% | – |
| 3/24/05 | …the Fed is tightening, and this has almost always been a harbinger of a declining stock market… Combined with soaring energy prices, this is a potentially lethal combination given the glaring structural imbalances and an overvalued stock market. | 0.1% | -0.8% | 3.6% | 10.4% | – |
| 3/17/05 | Given the market’s excessive valuation, the Fed’s tightening policy, rising oil prices, and the consequences of the structural imbalances finally coming to a head, we believe the probability that a top is now forming is quite high… | -1.6% | -3.7% | 1.4% | 9.0% | – |
