We evaluate here the weekly commentary of Merrill Lynch’s Bob Doll from January 2003 (the earliest available) through September 2006. Bob Doll was President and CIO of Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, the firm’s asset management arm. With the October 2006 merger of this group with Blackrock Inc., Mr. Doll’s commentary for Merrill Lynch is discontinued. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Bob Doll was mostly positive about the U.S. economy and U.S. equities during January 2003 through September 2006, in general alignment with market performance. While writing weekly, he often addresses intermediate and long term outlooks.
- He often cites oil prices and the Federal Funds Rate as critical factors for both the economy and the stock market.
- It is relatively difficult to assess the accuracy of Mr. Doll’s market projections because of conditionalities and vagueness.
- Bob Doll’s forecast sample size is moderate, as is therefore confidence in measurement of his accuracy.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| Â | Â | S&P 500 Index | Â | |||
| Date | Comments from: Bob Doll at ml.com | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | Â |
| 9/25/06 | …while we could see some weakness in equities over the short-term as the effects of softer economic activity and slowing earnings growth work their way through the system, our longer-term outlook for equities remains positive. | 0.4% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 15.1% | Â |
| 9/18/06 | …value is reasonable in the equity market and…slowing earnings growth and eventual Fed cuts will, in fact, allow stocks to move higher. | 0.4% | 3.2% | 7.9% | 15.5% | Â |
| 9/5/06 | …the correction that occurred in stocks earlier this year probably saw its lows a couple of months ago…there will still be some turbulent times ahead for the market as growth cools and as earnings disappoint. | 0.0% | 2.8% | 6.4% | 10.5% | – |
| 8/28/06 | …we do not believe there is significant downside. | 0.9% | 2.7% | 7.6% | 13.2% | + |
| 8/21/06 | …stock prices will…beat cash over the next 12 months…continued turbulence is likely as the economy slows and earnings expectations decline. Healthy valuation levels should eventually prevail, helping to drive stock prices noticeably higher. |
0.3% | 2.1% | 7.9% | 14.0% | Â |
| 8/7/06 | …higher equity prices [are] probably several months away. …the longer-term outlook remains positive and that stocks may be poised for a sustained rally down the road. | -0.6% | 1.9% | 7.2% | 13.9% | – |
| 7/31/06 | …while we continue to see some risks in the market, we believe the fundamental case for equities remains sound, and we expect to see a more sustained rally before the end of the year. | -0.1% | 2.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | + |
| 7/24/06 | …although we do not think the correction is quite over, we would not become too occupied with the downside risk…the equity market will be in a bottoming process before too much more decline occurs. | 1.2% | 3.0% | 8.4% | 15.7% | – |
| 7/17/06 | Beyond the next few months, we expect the investing environment to improve…we do not expect to see a severe correction or a bear equity market. | 2.1% | 4.1% | 10.4% | 24.3% | – |
| 6/19/06 | …we expect that prices will continue to consolidate over the summer, but when the Fed finally does go on hold, that should provide some relief. | 0.8% | 1.6% | 6.4% | 21.2% | + |
| 6/12/06 | …equity market volatility should soon calm down. …This soft patch should…help the equity bull market to resume…we are likely still weeks, if not months, away from that happening. | 0.3% | 1.8% | 5.1% | 24.0% | + |
| 5/30/06 | …equity prices will be under pressure for a period of several weeks, if not a few months, before resuming their uptrend. We also believe there is a risk of more of a correction. Over the longer term, we continue to remain positive. | 0.3% | -1.1% | 2.8% | 22.2% | + |
| 5/22/06 | …we are probably about halfway there in terms of price depreciation, although we estimate it will take some time for the rest of the correction to play out. It will likely be at least a matter of weeks, if not a few months, before the weakness ends and the markets resume their upward trend. | -0.2% | -0.8% | 3.2% | 20.1% | + |
| 4/24/06 | We continue to believe that stocks may be due for a price correction. However, we also feel that should the Fed soon stand aside and the developing economic slowdown be mild, the stage could be set for a favorable investing environment for stocks. | -0.2% | -3.9% | -5.2% | 14.2% | + |
| 4/17/06 | …the ingredients for a correction remain in place. …the markets remain susceptible to a downturn as the economy cools, earnings disappoint and the Fed finishes its tightening process. | 1.8% | 0.5% | -3.8% | 15.5% | + |
| 4/3/06 | …we continue to forecast a setback in prices that we would view as a buying opportunity. | -0.1% | 0.8% | -2.1% | 11.3% | + |
| 3/20/06 | …expect to see higher prices for U.S. equities (which have lagged the rest of the world) following a mid-cycle economic slowdown, corporate earnings disappointments and perhaps an equity market pullback. | -0.3% | 0.4% | -4.1% | 10.0% | + |
| 3/6/06 | …equity markets could experience weakness in the near term as central bankers become less accommodative and the Fed edges toward becoming more restrictive. Beyond this point of the cycle, our optimism toward the financial markets is driven by good performance of core inflation around the globe… | 0.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 9.7% | – |
| 2/21/06 | …a mid-cycle slowdown still appears to be in front of us. | -0.2% | 1.7% | -1.2% | 13.0% | + |
| 2/13/06 | …any pullback in equity prices should be viewed as a potential buying opportunity. | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 15.3% | + |
| 2/6/06 | We expect to see…slower corporate profit growth rates and a possible correction in equity prices. | -0.2% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 13.7% | – |
| 1/30/06 | Any threat to equity prices from slowing profit growth is likely to persist for several months, but…a weaker economy and a potential correction in equities should set the stage for better valuations and higher prices down the line. | -1.6% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 12.7% | – |
| 1/17/06 | Earnings disappointments should cause a setback in equity prices, which in turn could create buying opportunities for stocks… | -1.3% | -0.2% | 0.2% | 10.9% | + |
| 1/9/06 | We anticipate a bumpy period for investors as earnings expectations are downgraded, but…that any setbacks should trigger buying opportunities. In the meantime, we believe the market strength we saw last week is likely to continue over the short-term. | -0.6% | -1.9% | 0.4% | 10.9% | – |
| 12/19/05 | …the much-anticipated year-end rally may have come early. …Equities [inn 2006] will benefit from improved valuations as a result of rising corporate earnings and a flat stock market, but will face the risk that earnings will not meet their lofty expectations. | -0.3% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 12.6% | + |
| 12/5/05 | …we expect some choppiness in equity prices…a period of disappointing corporate profit growth will be the main challenge facing the equity markets in the coming months. | -0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 11.5% | – |
| 11/28/05 | …There is still some risk that stock prices could decline as weaker economic growth undermines corporate earnings expectations, which…remain too high. We would view any such price setbacks, however, as buying opportunities. | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 11.4% | + |
| 11/21/05 | …while we may witness more progress on the upside, we do not expect significant breakouts. | 0.2% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 11.6% | + |
| 11/14/05 | …the main headwinds acting against the equity markets are still present…a correction phase may resume. | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 7.9% | – |
| 11/7/05 | …stocks may remain in this muddle through holding pattern, hopefully breaking out to the upside once economic growth has slowed enough for the Fed to stop its rate increases. | 0.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 12.7% | – |
| 10/31/05 | …a somewhat conservative investment posture still makes sense until there is more visibility that the Fed will go on hold, which does not seem imminent…a slowdown in…economic growth…has probably already begun. The equity market…remains at some risk within this longer-term trading range…further weakness in equity prices could result, creating interesting buying opportunities some time in the month to come. |
1.3% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 13.3% | – |
| 10/24/05 | …oversold conditions…could spark a short-term rally at any point, but…additional earnings disappointments…could set the stage for some additional corrective moves. | 0.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 15.8% | – |
| 10/17/05 | …the market is now somewhat oversold and that we could see a rally at some point. …the economy will experience a slowdown…longer than what is currently priced into the markets. | 0.8% | 3.3% | 7.8% | 14.9% | + |
| 10/10/05 | …the muddle through environment will persist… the market is oversold, which could result in a bounce at some point in the future. | 0.2% | 2.6% | 8.7% | 14.8% | + |
| 10/3/05 | …wait for a less risky time before adopting a more aggressive investment stance…look for buying opportunities, which could be signaled by signs that the Fed is pausing, by lower stock prices as a result of disappointing earnings or by lower energy prices. | -3.2% | -2.0% | 1.8% | 10.3% | + |
| 9/26/05 | …we should not see a contraction in profits or any significant bear market for stocks. The equity market, therefore, should offer some attractive entry pointswhen prices are at the lower ends of the trading ranges. | 0.9% | -1.6% | 4.3% | 10.1% | + |
| 9/19/05 | For investors, this is a confusing and risky period…the muddle through environment is likely to prevail. | -1.3% | -4.3% | 3.2% | 7.1% | + |
| 9/12/05 | …the main risk for equity markets is the trend for slowing profit growth…such an environment could create some buying opportunities for equity investors. | -0.8% | -4.5% | 1.2% | 6.1% | + |
| 9/6/05 | …we are entering the mid-expansion economic slowdown… This period will likely last for several months, and perhaps several quarters, and should create some buying opportunities for…equities. | -0.2% | -3.0% | 2.6% | 5.3% | + |
| 8/29/05 | …the U.S. economy is in store for a mid-expansion slowdown, perhaps lasting a few quarters. Having said that, we do not expect equity markets to experience too much damage. | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.6% | 7.6% | – |
| 8/22/05 | …for stock prices to move higher, we would need to see some combination of better valuation levels and/or an end to Federal Reserve rate hikes and high oil prices. | -0.8% | -0.9% | 1.7% | 6.1% | + |
| 8/15/05 | …the equity market will have another setback during the tightening cycle given that earnings expectations are high. The upside… Is that we will at some point get a better value, a lower risk entry point. | -1.0% | -0.5% | -0.2% | 5.2% | + |
| 8/1/05 | …the second half of the year should see stocks muddling through with a positive bias…economic growth will slow in the second half of 2005. | -1.0% | -2.2% | -4.6% | 3.6% | – |
| 7/25/05 | …it makes sense, with some caution, to take on more risk in portfolios. | 0.5% | -0.9% | -4.2% | 2.8% | – |
| 7/18/05 | …the second half of the year will see better performance for stocks. | 0.6% | -0.1% | -3.6% | 2.3% | + |
| 6/27/05 | …until the Fed stops raising rates (or gives a clear sign that the end is near), equity markets will continue to struggle. | 1.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 6.9% | – |
| 6/20/05 | …lower prices are possible before…risks abate, although we doubt a big correction looms. | -2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | + |
| 6/13/05 | …a sustained equity rally…is likely to occur before the end of the year. | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | + |
| 6/6/05 | A new bull market will probably require further declines in equity market risks…such a move seems unlikely to occur, at least in the next few months. | 0.3% | -0.2% | 2.0% | 5.0% | + |
| 5/31/05 | While equity markets have continued to move up within their trading ranges, …it is unlikely that they will significantly climb above that range any time soon. | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 8.1% | + |
| 5/16/05 | We are by no means expecting the markets to shoot to new highs, but some upward movement within the recent trading range would not surprise us. …there is as much upside potential as there is downside risk…equity markets will finish the year above their current levels. |
0.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 8.2% | + |
| 5/9/05 | Stocks…will likely continue to be somewhat vulnerable until the Fed finishes its rate raising campaign. | -1.1% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 10.8% | + |
| 5/2/05 | …several factors that have caused us to adopt a cautious view. | 1.4% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 12.9% | – |
| 4/25/05 | …conditions…will likely result in the stock market continuing to progress in a range-bound pattern, with most risks favoring the down side. | 0.0% | 2.8% | 6.2% | 12.7% | – |
| 4/18/05 | …until the Fed stops raising interest rates, the environment remains troubling for equity investors. | 1.4% | 2.4% | 7.2% | 14.4% | – |
| 4/11/05 | …we remain cautious in our outlook, and continue to advise investors to remain patient. | -3.0% | -1.3% | 2.6% | 9.1% | + |
| 4/4/05 | …we will have to wait [until] the Fed stops its campaign of rate increases for the economy to resume growth and for the financial markets to improve. | 0.4% | -1.3% | 1.3% | 11.5% | – |
| 3/28/05 | …we could get a bounce at any time. We think that the equity market could see more downside. | 0.2% | -1.9% | 2.3% | 11.0% | – |
| 3/21/05 | …be neutral at best in the near term around long-dated financial assets. | -1.6% | -3.9% | 2.8% | 10.0% | – |
| 3/14/05 | …equity valuations generally remain at best neutral on an absolute basis but are still attractive compared to bonds. …there might be some shorter-term pain for investors in this muddling-through environment. | -1.9% | -2.7% | -0.7% | 8.2% | + |
| 3/7/05 | The equity market is in a bit of a box. | -1.5% | -3.4% | -2.4% | 3.8% | + |
| 2/22/05 | While we are unlikely to be in a full-out bearish environment in 2005, we may be in a rebound or correction period. | 2.2% | -1.0% | 0.4% | 8.9% | + |
| 2/14/05 | …remain relatively neutral in relation to equities. | -1.8% | -1.5% | -4.3% | 6.9% | – |
| 2/7/05 | …2005 earnings growth will be at a rate of between 5% and 8%. | 0.4% | 0.4% | -2.5% | 5.2% | – |
| 1/31/05 | …better-than expected earnings growth…is unlikely to continue in 2005, | 1.7% | 2.4% | -2.1% | 7.6% | – |
| 1/24/05 | …the market should be in a position to attempt some short-term rallies. | 1.5% | 2.3% | -1.0% | 9.5% | + |
| 1/18/05 | …a significant decline in stocks…is not in the cards…the positives for equities offset the negatives, suggesting a neutral or slightly overweight position in equities. | -2.3% | 1.2% | -4.2% | 5.5% | – |
| 1/10/05 | …2005 will be a year in which stocks struggle. | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.8% | 8.0% | + |
| 12/20/04 | …equities remain in reasonably good shape. The rising market may take a break at some point, but likely not until next year. | 1.6% | -1.6% | -0.9% | 5.7% | + |
| 11/29/04 | … the cyclical environment remains positive. | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 6.0% | + |
| 11/22/04 | …the rally is likely to resume. | -0.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 7.5% | – |
| 11/15/04 | …seasonal strength is likely to continue. | -0.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | – |
| 11/1/04 | …keeping a careful eye on elections, Federal Reserve policy and oil prices will be important in order to determine what the year-end environment will look like for the financial markets. | 3.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | – |
| 10/25/04 | …restoration of calm in the energy markets will be needed for a stock market rally…the likelihood of that scenario is becoming very low. | 3.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | – |
| 10/18/04 | …for a sustained equity market rally…, there would need to be a decline in the price of oil, which we have yet to see. | -1.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | – |
| 10/11/04 | While…modestly positive on equities, we expect only limited gains by year-end. | -0.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | – |
| 10/4/04 | …our view continues to be in the “glass is half full” camp. | -0.9% | -0.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | – |
| 9/27/04 | …further decline in the price of oil would be needed for us to see a sustained equity market rally. | 2.9% | 0.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | – |
| 9/20/04 | …we are at an important juncture in the equity markets. Any downside in stocks should be limited. | -1.7% | -1.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | + |
| 9/13/04 | While the economy and earnings are the most important things affecting equity markets, other factors have been positive too. | -0.3% | -0.4% | 5.6% | 9.0% | – |
| 9/7/04 | …the economy… is settling at a healthier, more sustainable balanced pace, ultimately good news for profits and for equities. | 0.6% | 1.9% | 6.2% | 9.8% | + |
| 8/30/04 | …we could get a little bit more of a rally out of the equity market. | 2.0% | 1.4% | 7.6% | 11.0% | + |
| 8/23/04 | …we may be at the beginning of a late summer rally that could continue. | 0.3% | 1.6% | 8.0% | 10.4% | + |
| 8/16/04 | …eventually the fundamentals will matter, which will push equity prices in a positive direction. | 1.5% | 3.8% | 8.7% | 13.1% | + |
| 8/9/04 | …an overweight position in equities…is still the place to be. | 1.3% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 15.4% | + |
| 8/2/04 | There still is a window of opportunity for stock prices to move higher in the second half of this year, although at some point rising interest rates may eventually outweigh earnings…this is unlikely to occur until some time next year at the earliest. | -3.7% | -0.2% | 1.9% | 12.5% | + |
| 7/26/04 | …good economic and earnings news, along with more reasonable valuations, should allow the equity markets to rally in the second half of 2004. | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 14.1% | + |
| 7/19/04 | …equity markets are primed for a decent bounce, | -1.5% | -1.7% | 0.2% | 12.2% | – |
| 7/12/04 | …strong corporate earnings should allow equities to have another rally at some point in the second half of the year. | -1.2% | -3.2% | 1.5% | 9.8% | + |
| 6/28/04 | …stocks will have a total return this year of mid to high single digits. | -1.5% | -3.3% | -2.1% | 5.9% | + |
| 6/21/04 | …it is too early in the cycle for rising rates to terminate a bull market, and…rising energy prices are not significant enough to derail…the positive view we have on stocks. | 0.3% | -3.2% | -0.2% | 7.4% | – |
| 6/14/04 | …at a minimum, we could have a few decent weeks. | 0.4% | -1.2% | -0.1% | 7.2% | – |
| 6/7/04 | …all of this points to prospects for a stronger equity market. | -0.7% | -2.7% | -2.3% | 5.3% | – |
| 6/1/04 | …expect higher equity prices…over the summer. | 1.9% | 0.7% | -2.0% | 6.7% | – |
| 5/24/04 | …we will get back to a glass-is-half-full scenario when interest rates and oil prices stop rising, but until then, stocks will struggle. | 2.4% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 9.3% | – |
| 5/17/04 | …expect an equity rally to develop. | 1.0% | 4.4% | -0.4% | 9.9% | + |
| 5/10/04 | …there is at least one more up-leg in the equity market before the cyclical backdrop becomes a problem. …In the meantime, sluggishness is likely to persist. | -0.3% | 4.1% | -2.0% | 6.6% | + |
| 5/3/04 | …strong profit outlook should allow equities to have another rally at some point. | -2.7% | 0.7% | -1.0% | 4.9% | – |
| 4/26/04 | …the equity market should enjoy another up-leg before the cyclical risks become a threat. | -1.6% | -2.0% | -4.5% | 0.7% | – |
| 4/19/04 | Strong profit results should allow equities to rally further. | 0.0% | -3.9% | -3.1% | 2.1% | – |
| 4/12/04 | …long-term returns for…stocks…are likely to be uninspiring by historical standards. …the cycle offers no assets of compelling value. Stocks aren’t cheap. | -0.8% | -4.3% | -2.7% | 1.5% | + |
| 4/5/04 | …the equity market is likely to resume its upward path in…a two-steps-forward and one-step-back market. | -1.8% | -2.5% | -3.0% | 2.7% | – |
| 3/29/04 | …the equity market is likely to move to the upside eventually… | 2.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 4.5% | + |
| 3/22/04 | …stock prices will eventually move out of the doldrums…they will move higher in an irregular two-steps-forward, one-step-back fashion, producing high single-digit gains in 2004… | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 6.9% | + |
| 3/15/04 | …ride out the storm as long as profits remain strong. | -0.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 7.8% | + |
| 3/8/04 | …the market reaction generally will be positive. | -3.7% | 0.1% | -2.2% | 5.4% | – |
| 3/1/04 | …stock prices should grind higher. | -0.8% | -2.5% | -3.0% | 4.7% | – |
| 2/23/04 | …this will be a year of two steps forward, one step back for U.S. equity markets. | 1.3% | -4.1% | -4.5% | 5.2% | + |
| 2/17/04 | …the environment is once again positive for “reflation trades,” including equities… | -1.5% | -2.9% | -5.3% | 3.8% | – |
| 2/9/04 | …a pro-growth investment stance makes sense. …but…the market has been acting a little bit tired over the last few weeks…some caution may make sense in the near term. | 1.5% | -1.4% | -3.6% | 5.0% | – |
| 2/2/04 | While we maintain our view that stocks will move irregularly higher,…a short-term pull back at any point could be expected. …the risks do not warrant a significant change in our constructive view on stocks. |
0.4% | 1.4% | -2.5% | 4.8% | – |
| 1/26/04 | …economically sensitive securities have some more upside. | -1.7% | -1.0% | -1.3% | 1.7% | – |
| 1/19/04 | While there is some short-term evidence of speculation creeping into the equity market, we believe it is not excessive. | 0.5% | 0.7% | -0.3% | 2.6% | + |
| 1/15/04 | …the economy…should carry stock market returns into the high single digits for 2004. | 0.8% | 2.2% | -0.3% | 4.6% | + |
| 1/12/04 | …a procyclical, proequity stance still makes sense. | 1.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 4.5% | + |
| 12/15/03 | …it makes sense to be exposed to investments that benefit from strong economic growth. | 2.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 11.8% | + |
| 12/8/03 | …each of the three major averages…made new cyclical bull market highs at some point last week, so we expect more of the same in the weeks to come. | -0.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 11.1% | + |
| 12/1/03 | …an above-trend 3% to 4% growth rate…should cause equity prices to work steadily higher. | -0.1% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 11.3% | + |
| 11/24/03 | …non-economic developments could continue to weigh on the market as we head into year-end. | 1.4% | 4.0% | 8.7% | 12.0% | – |
| 11/17/03 | The market…could pull back or at least pause for several weeks. …we would expect the market to steadily work its way higher. | 0.8% | 3.1% | 10.4% | 12.1% | – |
| 11/10/03 | …expect an earnings-driven phase, typically characterized by upward movement but at a more labored pace | -0.3% | 1.1% | 9.4% | 13.1% | + |
| 11/3/03 | …we remain constructive on the economy and expect that over the next six to 12 months stocks will continue to outperform bonds. | -1.1% | 0.5% | 7.3% | 10.1% | + |
| 10/27/03 | …the cyclical bull market is in tact, although…we could see a pause in the action. | 2.7% | 2.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% | – |
| 10/20/03 | …we think the market could move back to the upper end of its prior range. This would constitute a correction of about 5%. | -1.3% | -1.0% | 9.0% | 4.9% | – |
| 10/13/03 | …we could see a correction at any point. …not withstanding the possible cautionary tones near-term, …investors should maintain above-average equity weightings. | -0.1% | 0.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | – |
| 10/6/03 | …we don’t think the market is destined to fall. Rather, a period of consolidation may be likely before the cyclical advance resumes. | 1.1% | 1.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | – |
| 9/29/03 | …equity investors should remain constructive. | 2.8% | 4.0% | 8.9% | 12.4% | + |
| 9/22/03 | …we could have a 5% to 10% stock market correction at any time…but we continue to believe the path of least resistance for equities is up. | -1.6% | 2.3% | 6.5% | 8.5% | + |
| 9/15/03 | …a correction could come at any time. Nevertheless, looking beyond the shorter term, we think equity markets will slowly but surely move up. | 0.8% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 11.2% | – |
| 9/8/03 | Investors who wait…will miss an opportunity to participate in the new cyclical bull market. | -1.6% | 0.7% | 3.7% | 8.9% | – |
| 9/2/03 | The stock market and interest rates should go up. | 0.1% | -0.4% | 3.5% | 9.0% | – |
| 8/25/03 | …this indicates…a positive environment for stocks as earnings continue to improve and fund flows continue to gravitate toward areas of higher returns. | 2.8% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 11.5% | + |
| 8/18/03 | …we can expect no worse than a sideways correction, but as the profit picture continues strengthening, equity prices will once again move higher…buy stocks into weakness | -0.6% | 2.6% | 5.9% | 9.9% | + |
| 7/28/03 | …importantly for stocks, earnings continue to rise with results better than expected, and forward earnings expectations are moving up rather than down. | -1.4% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 10.6% | + |
| 7/21/03 | Some might even say the equity market is doing well by going sidewise… | 1.8% | 2.4% | 7.3% | 11.0% | – |
| 7/14/03 | Equity prices…could correct further in the near term. However, the cyclical rally is likely to run further. | -2.5% | -1.3% | 3.5% | 9.7% | + |
| 6/23/03 | We wonder whether the market…got ahead of itself. We would be happy if the U.S. stock market ended the year somewhere near current levels. | -0.7% | 0.7% | 5.6% | 15.6% | – |
| 6/16/03 | …these are the highs for the intermediate term. | -2.9% | -1.6% | 0.8% | 12.3% | + |
| 6/9/03 | …this big run could pause at any time, on the way to higher highs. | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 16.4% | – |
| 6/2/03 | …a constructive reflation process…will be positive fo…equity markets. | 0.9% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 15.5% | + |
| 5/27/03 | …near-term markets…are likely to pause by going sidewise at a minimum or perhaps doing some correcting. | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 17.8% | – |
| 5/19/03 | …the trading range for stocks will remain 800 to 950, toward the higher end. …we are most likely not going to break out in a decisive manner…down the line…we will eventually break out on the upside. | 3.3% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 18.3% | – |
| 5/12/03 | …some profit-taking is likely…we are leery of a market that is up 20% in two short months. |
-2.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 16.0% | + |
| 5/5/03 | …we are in a new bull market. …We are for the short run becoming somewhat more neutral. | 2.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 20.2% | – |
| 4/28/03 | …investors [should] take a constructive outlook. | 1.3% | 4.2% | 9.2% | 21.8% | + |
| 4/21/03 | …we continue to argue for…above normal equity weightings. | 2.6% | 3.1% | 11.4% | 27.8% | + |
| 4/14/03 | …policy reflation will win the day but the investing public is going to need some evidence of a stronger economy before bidding equity prices much higher. | 3.0% | 6.1% | 13.4% | 28.2% | – |
| 4/7/03 | …the war continues to hold markets back. | 0.6% | 5.6% | 14.1% | 29.5% | – |
| 3/31/03 | The move to the upper end of the trading range is still possible. We have talked about a trading range of 800 to 950 on the S&P 500. | 3.7% | 8.1% | 15.1% | 33.5% | – |
| 3/24/03 | …we would expect equities to begin a correction some time this week after the huge gains that we have had. …Our [year-end] target for the S&P 500 [remains] 950…buying in the lows and trading out of the highs is probably going to be necessary. | -1.9% | 6.3% | 15.2% | 28.3% | + |
| 3/17/03 | …we are at the front end of a multiyear reflation process, which would be generally, although not necessarily significantly, positive for stocks… | 0.2% | 3.2% | 14.6% | 30.1% | – |
| 3/10/03 | …sentiment is sufficiently bearish to pave the way for a rally once some easing of the tensions in the Middle East takes place. | 6.8% | 8.8% | 22.3% | 37.1% | + |
| 3/3/03 | …the markets will experience volatility until we get some clarity on Iraq. After that, …positive economic earnings growth should carry equities somewhat higher. | -3.3% | 2.8% | 15.4% | 38.3% | + |
| 2/24/03 | …U.S. markets…continue to be in a trading range. | 0.3% | 5.1% | 11.9% | 37.5% | – |
| 2/17/03 | The “tug of war” continues. | -1.5% | 2.7% | 10.9% | 34.4% | + |
| 2/10/03 | …markets are continuing to face a “tug of war”, with concerns regarding military conflict in Iraq and high oil prices on one side, and a slow but steadily improving economy on the other. | 1.8% | -3.8% | 11.7% | 37.8% | + |
| 2/3/03 | …last summer the annual rate of change for the S&P 500 reaching negative 30% is characteristic of an important bear market bottom. | -2.8% | -3.5% | 8.1% | 31.2% | + |
| 1/27/03 | …the market will continue to be volatile…the economy…does have enough strength…for stocks eventually to recover. | 1.5% | -2.4% | 6.1% | 33.8% | + |
| 1/21/03 | …U.S. equity prices will rise this year, although the question of timing is certainly a legitimate one. | -3.3% | -5.7% | 0.5% | 28.6% | + |
| 1/13/03 | …the equity market…is likely to continue to move higher. | -4.2% | -11.6% | -6.3% | 22.2% | – |
| 1/1/03 | …equity investors will experience positive returns this year. …October of last year did in fact mark the low for equity markets. | 2.0% | -5.4% | -3.1% | 23.6% | + |
