As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here Bill Fleckenstein’s commentary in the “Contrarian Chronicles” at MSN Money since August 2002 (the earliest we can find). Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital, manages a hedge fund based in Seattle. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Bill Fleckenstein has been consistently and confidently very pessimistic about the U.S. economy, and especially disparaging of the Federal Reserve’s management of the money supply.
- He has been mostly a short-seller of stocks in recent years, based on his belief that the stock market is grossly overvalued and therefore doomed to fall significantly in a continuing bear market. His pronouncements sometimes tend toward the apocalyptic:
- From his 1/10/05 commentary: “I don’t believe that there has been a moment in time in the last 50 years where the stock market has been more lopsidedly tilted toward all risk and no reward.”
- From his 8/20/07 commentary: “Drawing parallels with the end of the Roman empire, [U.S. Comptroller General David Walker] warned there were ‘striking similarities’ between America’s current situation and the factors that brought down Rome… Unfortunately, it seems to me that he is dead right.”
- Bill Fleckenstein has been especially negative toward the technology sector. He has consistently been vocal about the severity of the housing bubble and favorable toward gold and silver.
- With respect to market timing, Bill Fleckenstein’s long-term view is as described above. His forecasts of short-term and intermediate-term stock market behavior are more circumspect, focusing on deception, delusion and momentum as drivers of doomed market rallies.
- Bill Fleckenstein’s forecast sample size is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Bill Fleckenstein via MSN Money | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 1/20/12 | For the time being, animal spirits may run wild in the stock market, but they have a date with rising interest rates that won’t go well. | 0.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 14.3% | – |
| 11/18/11 | I continue to think of stocks generically as completely uninteresting because of the economic problems we are facing. | -1.9% | 2.1% | 12.1% | 15.7% | – |
| 10/7/11 | I think the odds favor October being something of a disaster overall, but if by some miracle it isn’t, there will probably be a feeding frenzy on the upside for a while. | 6.0% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 24.0% | – |
| 8/26/11 | …the stock market…rallied as though a tradable low has been made and tested (for now). So perhaps we will see a decent — though presumably failing — rally. | -0.2% | -0.1% | -1.3% | 19.9% | + |
| 7/22/11 | …once the noise dies down, the stock market needs to go lower to get the Fed to print more money… | -3.9% | -16.4% | -10.0% | -0.53% | + |
| 7/1/11 | …I have not changed my view regarding more pain ahead in the stock market, since QE3 won’t arrive without more suffering. | -1.5% | -6.4% | -13.4% | 2.08% | + |
| 6/10/11 | …I expect the trend for stock prices is likely to be downward for the next little while… | 0.0% | 3.4% | -6.7% | 3.45% | – |
| 3/11/11 | …it is time to be extremely cautious about stocks… I continue to suspect that short-selling will become profitable at some point in 2011… | -1.9% | 1.5% | -1.2% | 6.9% | + |
| 3/4/11 | …I expect 2011 to be dicey for stocks, as our money-printing, inflation and worthless-currency woes come home to roost. …the (lagged) downside of money printing is now rearing its head, just as QE2 ends. Some very rough days lie ahead, after a nearly two-year respite. | -1.3% | 0.9% | -0.6% | 2.4% | – |
| 2/18/11 | Perhaps sometime around the end of the first quarter there may be an opportunity, for the first time in two years, to take a shot at trading the other side of this insanity by getting short. As to the timing, we will have to wait to discover how things develop, but I would certainly think that by April or so, rabid stock bulls could be on borrowed time… | -1.2% | -3.7% | 0.0% | 1.5% | – |
| 2/4/11 | …I feel strongly that at some point this year there is going to be a scary decline or two in the stock market… | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | + |
| 1/7/11 | …at some point I expect higher interest rates will hurt both the economy and the stock market. …In short, I think 2011 is going to be a tough year for financial assets, regardless of how it begins. | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 1.7% | – |
| 12/17/10 | “Party Like It’s 1999, Part III,”…is how the equity market landscape looks to me. | 1.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | -0.2% | – |
| 10/29/10 | I think stock bulls may be getting a little overly optimistic thinking about the next round of quantitative easing (aka QE2) from the Federal Reserve and the possibility of gridlock in Washington after the election, as they are factoring in all of the potential positives and none of the negatives. | 3.6% | -0.2% | 7.9% | 3.0% | – |
| 8/6/10 | …we are in a multiyear price-to-earnings ratio compression environment, and at the same time trapped in a large trading range, so stocks generically just aren’t that appealing. | -3.8% | -2.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | – |
| 7/30/10 | Now that folks are feeling better, we’ll probably get a little pullback in the tape to test their nerves — not that such a move would matter all that much. But I do know that if you expect plenty of whipsaws as well as confusion, I don’t think you will be disappointed. | 1.8% | -4.8% | 7.3% | 13.8% | + |
| 7/9/10 | …there is a reasonable probability of a decent rally getting under way. …However, it will be just that: a rally. If things play out along those lines, it may very well be time to start thinking seriously about putting on some short positions, preparing for a move back down. | -1.2% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 21.9% | – |
| 7/2/10 | I expect [the recent 1020-1130 range] will probably widen over time, most likely on the downside, and I would not be at all surprised to look back in a few years to find out that the S&P traded between 850 and 1,150. | 5.5% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 31.0% | – |
| 6/4/10 | From a risk-reward standpoint, it seems too dangerous, and not really all that attractive, to buy stocks right now, and it still seems too dangerous and tricky to short stocks. | 2.5% | -3.5% | 1.4% | 20.7% | + |
| 2/26/10 | …for sure that the easy money in the stock market…has been made. …we could see a very big trading range, with 1,150 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index…on the topside and 850 to 900 on the downside. | 3.1% | 6.2% | -3.3% | 18.3% | – |
| 2/5/10 | I suspect that after this “correction” has passed, we could easily see a failing rally instead of new highs, but it’s difficult to hold a big opinion. | 0.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 24.2% | + |
| 12/11/09 | It feels like the market may be building a top, which is oftentimes a process that takes a fair bit of time. …It’s been a great rally since March…, but it may be time to be a bit more careful. | -0.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 11.6% | – |
| 8/31/09 | I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see some sort of serious pullback… If the world doesn’t come to an end in September or October (right now it looks like it probably won’t), I think we could see some sort of mad scramble on the part of the paid-to-play crowd to get even longer. | 0.5% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 0 |
| 5/11/09 | …color me skeptical that the lows for the bear market have been seen. However, …folks must give any expectation that they hold a wide degree of latitude. | 0.1% | 3.3% | 11.1% | 27.3% | – |
| 4/20/09 | …I would be surprised if the market rally can continue easily past the current 850-875 level… | 3.0% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 45.2% | – |
| 3/30/09 | …I’m skeptical that the final lows have been seen. …Be forewarned: There will be many, many head-fake rallies before this recession has ended. | 6.1% | 10.9% | 16.7% | 49.6% | – |
| 3/16/09 | …the probability that the worst has been seen is extraordinarily low. …For now, investors should be patient and err on the side of not losing money. | 9.2% | 13.0% | 25.5% | 54.6% | – |
| 3/9/09 | …the environment we’re heading into could make the no-growth 1970s look like the booming 1990s. …it doesn’t seem like the washout has ended… | 11.4% | 20.5% | 39.0% | 70.0% | – |
| 1/19/09 | …after the inauguration…the stage may be set for a rally that might last longer than the one that just ended. …it will set up a very attractive short-selling opportunity because ultimately I believe that the market will work much lower again. Later in the year, we will have a better opportunity to invest on the long side. | 5.0% | -3.3% | 3.4% | 35.6% | – |
| 12/22/08 | …the rally now under way in fits and starts will not last all that long into 2009 and that it will set up a rather attractive short-selling opportunity. …My working hypothesis…is that sometime around the coronation of Barack Obama might be as good a juncture as any for the market to flip over… | 2.2% | -4.6% | -7.5% | 29.2% | + |
| 12/15/08 | ..the rally that has been under way for a couple of weeks will continue in fits and starts until sometime into early next year…there will probably be a pretty decent shorting opportunity sometime in the first quarter. | 0.4% | -2.9% | -10.4% | 26.2% | – |
| 12/8/08 | …2009 is going to be very ugly. …too dangerous to be short stocks, and far too early in the downturn to be long them. | -4.5% | 0.0% | -20.9% | 21.2% | – |
| 11/3/08 | Any market rally we see is almost certain to be transitory. …it will not be something you can buy and forget about. | -4.9% | -16.0% | -13.2% | 6.3% | + |
| 10/27/08 | Leave stocks to Buffett (for now)… I will probably be short once again before I start getting long for real. | 13.8% | 1.0% | -0.4% | 25.6% | 0 |
| 10/9/08 | …is it capitulation yet? Unfortunately not, but it looks like we’re close. | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 17.9% | – |
| 10/6/08 | …with passage of the financial-rescue legislation, a relief rally will be followed by the market’s heading lower once again, and potentially violently. | -5.1% | -4.8% | -12.2% | 0.8% | + |
| 9/29/08 | We obviously have been close to a crash in the stock market…my fear is that the worst is still in front of us. | -4.5% | -15.0% | -21.1% | -6.9% | + |
| 9/15/08 | …Tuesday felt like the Friday before the crash of 1987…Mr. Market, I believe, is about to demonstrate that the two decades when Greenspan ran the show taught too many people the wrong lesson. The country is going to spend a long time paying a big price for his (and their) mistakes. | 1.2% | -16.3% | -26.8% | -10.7% | + |
| 9/8/08 | …be on red alert for a rapid change in psychology and its ramifications. | -4.3% | -21.4% | -46.6% | -17.6% | + |
| 7/21/08 | As far as the stock market goes, fear has not yet morphed into panic, but I think we will get to that point. | -2.0% | 0.5% | -24.9% | -22.5% | + |
| 7/7/08 | Before this bear market is over, the decline will be far worse than most think possible. | -1.9% | 2.6% | -11.0% | -29.5% | + |
| 6/23/08 | Eventually…the market will head lower — just how much lower is impossible to predict but certainly below the lows for the current cycle set in March. | -2.9% | -2.7% | -8.4% | -30.2% | + |
| 5/26/08 | There is some possibility that May 19 marked the exhaustion of the current bear market rally, though only in hindsight will we know for sure. …deleveraging will create a mighty undertow for the economy, stocks and house prices. | -0.6% | -4.6% | -6.7% | -33.7% | + |
| 4/21/08 | Once we get near the end of earnings season, will the bullish contingent once again run the tape back up…? I expect they will. So I’ll probably cover shorts during earnings season. Then I will look for one more rally to really short into. | 0.2% | 1.8% | -9.2% | -38.6% | + |
| 4/8/08 | It’s just the perennially clueless on Wall Street who seem to think that simply because technology isn’t finance, it ought to do well. This same band will be saying it’s the bottom… However, they…will be wrong. | -2.3% | 2.4% | -8.3% | -37.3% | + |
| 3/3/08 | A great pretender of a rally… | -4.4% | 2.7% | 5.2% | -48.7% | + |
| 2/18/08 | …the better arguments are made by those folks who see trouble ahead… Everyone has different strategies and stances, including those in the bullish camp, who think that the bad news has already been discounted. But to me, that seems virtually impossible. | 2.4% | -3.7% | 5.7% | -42.9% | + |
| 1/14/08 | …2008 will be the year when reality finally overtakes the Goldilocks crowd…expect the bulls to regale us with stories about a proverbial second-half rebound — the possibility of which is approximately zero… | -7.5% | -3.5% | -6.2% | -40.4% | + |
| 11/12/07 | We are at a moment in time when a crash is far more likely to happen than at any time in years. Does this mean it will happen? No. …but it feels like a crash could be right around the corner. | -0.4% | 3.3% | -6.3% | -36.7% | + |
| 10/29/07 | For anyone who’s been around the stock market for any length of time, [the Investors Intelligence bullish sentiment reading] is a clear warning sign. | -2.5% | -4.7% | -11.6% | -38.1% | + |
| 10/15/07 | …I am focused on their [RIMM and other tech leaders] action as potential barometers for the reversal in stock prices that I expect. | -2.7% | -4.4% | -8.6% | -38.9% | + |
| 10/1/07 | What I expect to unfold is a recession and severe weakness in the equity market. | 0.4% | -1.0% | -4.4% | -28.0% | + |
| 7/27/07 | I don’t know the timing, but as I have said repeatedly, the only thing of which I am 100% certain is that we will have a crash/dislocation. | -1.8% | 0.5% | 3.9% | -12.0% | + |
| 7/23/07 | …I cannot imagine a more dangerous time to be bullish. To me, it has the worst elements of all the biggest inflection points in stock market history. | -4.4% | -6.1% | -0.1% | -18.7% | + |
| 7/2/07 | I don’t know when the party in the stock market is going to end. But…I don’t see any way that we can avoid a crash or crashlike experience. | -0.6% | -3.5% | 0.5% | -16.9% | + |
| 6/18/07 | …no one seems able to explain makes it difficult to figure out when the music will stop and the bills will come due. But it’s time to get ready. | -2.2% | 1.0% | -3.1% | -12.3% | + |
| 6/4/07 | …market action will fool people. …there is going to be a dislocation… | 1.7% | 3.2% | -5.3% | -8.8% | + |
| 4/30/07 | …money printing in the past several years by virtually every central bank on the planet has created a synchronized global boom and, with it, gobs of speculation and complete disregard for risk. The fact that our economy is slowing down due to the housing bubble’s unwind is immaterial at the moment, though it will become material. | 1.7% | 3.2% | -1.6% | -4.6% | + |
| 4/23/07 | As to when sobriety overtakes the current insanity, whether five minutes or five weeks from now, there’s no way of telling. …Again, this is looking more and more like the complete madness seen in 1999-2000… | 0.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | -6.2% | – |
| 4/16/07 | When expectations seem to be far out of line with reality, it’s a setup for disappointment. That’s how I see this week shaping up in the stock market. | 0.8% | 2.2% | 5.7% | -7.0% | – |
| 4/2/07 | Every day, I am more and more astounded by the bravado/denial that I see. …How anyone can be sanguine about how this movie ends is beyond me. | 1.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | -3.8% | – |
| 3/19/07 | The housing market is on the verge of tanking, ditto the economy, but…bulls at large…are still trying to proclaim that the stock market is at bottom. Just as they did with housing stocks — until ignoring the obvious stopped working. | 2.5% | 5.0% | 9.3% | -5.2% | – |
| 2/19/07 | The recent collapse in the shares of New Century demonstrates what I expect to happen literally any day now in technology and the tape at large, although predicting when is impossible. | -4.2% | -1.7% | 4.3% | -7.3% | + |
| 2/12/07 | Obviously, this level of lunacy can’t continue indefinitely, but while it goes on, it can reach any magnitude. There’s no determining in advance whether it lasts for five minutes or 90 days. One can only try to tell when it has exhausted itself. All I can say is, the spectacle that I see on a daily basis is really something for the history books. | 1.8% | -3.2% | 4.9% | -5.9% | – |
| 1/29/07 | Exhaustion causes lower prices, regardless of what the bullish crowd wants. And, while occurring in fits and starts, I think that process might be under way. | 1.9% | -1.0% | 5.2% | -3.0% | – |
| 1/8/07 | …2007 is liable to be a very nasty year. | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% | – |
| 12/18/06 | …the chance for at least double-digit negative returns next year is very high. | -0.4% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 4.4% | – |
| 12/4/06 | …we are at a speculative zenith of major proportions. | 0.3% | 0.0% | -1.2% | 6.8% | – |
| 11/20/06 | …our stock market [is] in the throes of a manic blow-off…all I can see is a disastrous ending… (Though I’ve reduced my short exposure, I can’t bring myself to take it too low…) …As to when the party might end, there’s no way of gauging that. Nor is there any way of gauging…how high is too high. …Those who are tempted to participate are likely to be hurt. | -1.0% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 0.4% | – |
| 11/13/06 | …while the election results are not necessarily a huge issue in the short run, over time they will be seen as decidedly unfriendly to business and the stock market. | 1.2% | 2.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | – |
| 11/6/06 | …sometime soon-ish, we’ll start to see obvious disappointment. …Will that start in December, January or February? I do not know, but I think I will recognize it when I see it. …you can never be 100% certain about anything. Though I’m as close to that as I could ever be about what I think is going to happen. | 0.3% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | – |
| 10/30/06 | I don’t see how anyone with a modest amount of intelligence or knowledge of history can conclude that this is not one of the more dangerous times our economy has seen. | 0.1% | 1.6% | 4.4% | 9.6% | – |
| 10/16/06 | …right now “feels” to me like a cross between September 1987/early 2000… | 0.6% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 9.6% | – |
| 10/9/06 | …what we are seeing is more of an exhaustion gasp than the start of anything new. That said…there is no timing data in those observations. Exhaustion can’t be predicted in advance. | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 15.6% | – |
| 10/2/06 | There’s no way that the flagrant disregard for risk on the part of folks chasing stocks can end in anything other than tears… | 1.5% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 17.0% | – |
| 9/18/06 | …at some point in the next week or so, this rally will have ended in exhaustion… | 0.4% | 3.2% | 7.9% | 15.5% | – |
| 8/28/06 | …it could not be a worse time for the bulls to have thrown a party. …With so many people now racing to the bullish side of the boat, it probably won’t take much to flip the dingy over. | 0.9% | 2.7% | 7.6% | 13.2% | – |
| 8/7/06 | …whatever rally the market may have left in it will be expended shortly after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday. | -0.6% | 1.9% | 7.2% | 13.9% | – |
| 7/31/06 | …what I’m trying to convey is how serious our problems are… To position myself, therefore, I have sold a large number of stocks in the last week. | -0.1% | 2.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | – |
| 7/3/06 | Stocks will decline dramatically in value. | -0.6% | -0.1% | 4.3% | 19.7% | – |
| 6/19/06 | …I don’t want to be long stocks… | 0.8% | 1.6% | 6.4% | 21.2% | – |
| 6/12/06 | …I firmly believe that the resumption of the bear market is under way. The path of least resistance now, in my opinion, is going to be down, and future surprises are all likely to be negative as the bear market picks up speed. | 0.3% | 1.8% | 5.1% | 24.0% | – |
| 4/24/06 | …ratios of (a) stock value to GDP and (b) real-estate value to GDP are both nearly twice their averages from 1952 to 1970. …I obviously believe that plenty of mean reversion lies ahead. | -0.2% | -3.9% | -5.2% | 14.2% | + |
| 4/17/06 | …the rally that we get when the Fed decides it’s done will be the last one before serious downside action occurs. | 1.8% | 0.5% | -3.8% | 15.5% | + |
| 3/20/06 | Once the Fed finally does stop tightening, the stock market will have discounted most of it, such that whatever rally remains after the Fed actually stops will be rather small. | -0.3% | 0.4% | -4.1% | 10.0% | + |
| 3/13/06 | …I am essentially on the sidelines… | 1.6% | 0.2% | -2.5% | 8.0% | + |
| 2/27/06 | …a major inflection point is going to occur sometime in the not-too-distant future, when folks realize that the Fed is, in fact, done…there will be quite a big rally in stocks… | -1.2% | -0.1% | -1.6% | 7.2% | – |
| 2/13/06 | …in the very short run, I have almost no shorts, as the path of least resistance seems higher for the moment. | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 15.3% | + |
| 1/9/06 | …the “easy” money on the short side…will probably be made sometime later in the year… | -0.6% | -1.9% | 0.4% | 10.9% | – |
| 12/19/05 | …the stock market is certainly betting on a great Christmas, a strong economy and, on top of that, a Fed that is about to back off its rate hikes…which is why they’re setting themselves up for some pretty serious disappointment. | -0.3% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 12.6% | – |
| 11/14/05 | I still find it hard to believe that all the people who’ve made the calendar/no-news bet are going to get paid this year… | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 13.5% | – |
| 10/31/05 | …the end result is likely to be much lower stock prices… | 1.3% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 13.3% | – |
| 10/24/05 | …the long-term outcome for stocks is quite clear to me: Much lower prices. | 0.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 15.8% | – |
| 10/10/05 | …many people continue to expect the market to rally for the rest of the year — just because it happened to rally in the fourth quarter of last year. My expectation is otherwise. | 0.2% | 2.6% | 8.7% | 14.8% | – |
| 9/26/05 | …the stock market…is on the verge of very serious trouble. In fact, I chose to do a fair amount of short-selling last week… | 0.9% | -1.6% | 4.3% | 10.1% | – |
| 6/27/05 | The rally could possibly continue for a little while longer. …keeps me on the sidelines in the near term. However, it in no way changes my view regarding the ultimate outcome of this manic behavior that we’ve experienced in the last five to 10 years. | 1.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 6.9% | + |
| 4/18/05 | The only question is when all hell breaks loose. | 1.4% | 2.4% | 7.2% | 14.4% | – |
| 3/28/05 | …maybe there will be a bit of a bounce in the next couple weeks, but I think it will fail, as I believe the top is in and the path of least resistance will soon lead downward. | 0.2% | -1.9% | 2.3% | 11.0% | – |
| 2/28/05 | …finally, after about as much speculation as any economy could ever endure, our asset markets and economy might finally be ready to “revert to the mean.” | 1.8% | -1.8% | -0.5% | 7.1% | – |
| 2/7/05 | A huge dislocation is coming in the stock market at some point. Whether it starts soon or six months from now, I don’t know… | 0.4% | 0.4% | -2.5% | 5.2% | – |
| 1/24/05 | …2005 is off to a bad start. Before it’s over, as I have been warning, I expect things to get far worse. | 1.5% | 2.3% | -1.0% | 9.5% | – |
| 1/10/05 | …our stock market is the financial equivalent of an 8.0-plus earthquake waiting to happen. …I don’t believe that there has been a moment in time in the last 50 years where the stock market has been more lopsidedly tilted toward all risk and no reward. And I believe this is the most attractive period to be a short-seller that I have witnessed in my career. | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.8% | 8.0% | – |
| 12/13/04 | What we face in 2005…will be a whole lot worse than what happened to the country in 1973-1974. | -0.3% | -0.9% | 0.7% | 6.2% | – |
| 11/15/04 | …we will eventually revert to a more conservative environment. But…the only way that can happen is through some sort of a market dislocation, as I have been discussing for at least the last six months. Though it has not yet occurred, I still think it will at some point. | -0.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | – |
| 11/8/04 | With the glaring disconnect between fundamentals and the frenzy to buy stocks willy-nilly, I cannot see how any thoughtful person can be anything but concerned and positioned with as low a risk profile as he can stand. …it’s not debatable how this turns out. The only question is exactly when reality separates folks from their money. | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | – |
| 10/25/04 | …the next 18 months look to be one of the most dangerous periods for financial markets in the last 50 years. The destruction of capital measured in the trillions lies ahead in the not-too-distant future. | 3.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | – |
| 9/13/04 | …the economy, the stock market and the Fed’s credibility are on borrowed time. …One of these days, “the market” will agree that the view I am espousing is correct… | -0.3% | -0.4% | 5.6% | 9.0% | – |
| 8/16/04 | The Fed’s credibility is on borrowed time, and the market’s recognition of such will constitute an inflection point with far-reaching implications. | 1.5% | 3.8% | 8.7% | 13.1% | – |
| 8/9/04 | …I am very bearish on the stock market… | 1.3% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 15.4% | – |
| 8/2/04 | …it’s time to be on red alert, because any sign of weakness could turn what has been an orderly stock market decline into an all-out rout. | -3.7% | -0.2% | 1.9% | 12.5% | – |
| 7/12/04 | …probability of a crash at some point in the next six months to a year is far higher now than in 1987. | -1.2% | -3.2% | 1.5% | 9.8% | – |
| 6/28/04 | The Fed and the government have attempted to bail out the aftermath of our giant stock bubble with a leveraged real-estate bubble. This will end in disaster… | -1.5% | -3.3% | -2.1% | 5.9% | + |
| 6/21/04 | Stocks are on borrowed time. | 0.3% | -3.2% | -0.2% | 7.4% | + |
| 6/14/04 | Sometime in the second half of this year or the early part of next year, all of these problems will be clear enough for everyone to see. | 0.4% | -1.2% | -0.1% | 7.2% | – |
| 6/7/04 | In some ways, the present environment reminds me of the fall of 1987, when…we wound up with a crash. | -0.7% | -2.7% | -2.3% | 5.3% | – |
| 5/17/04 | Sometime soon, I expect that prices will once again begin moving to the downside on a regular basis. And, at some point, we are going to see a massive dislocation or crash-like event. The stock market, prospectively, looks like an extraordinarily hostile place to be. Folks should proceed with maximum caution. Regrettably, the accident that’s been building and is waiting to unfold will be unbelievably brutal, in my opinion. The only safe place will be short-dated government paper, combined with foreign currencies or precious metals. | 1.0% | 4.4% | -0.4% | 9.9% | – |
| 4/26/04 | Sometime in the next six months or so…stocks will experience a white-knuckle ride… | -1.6% | -2.0% | -4.5% | 0.7% | + |
| 4/19/04 | …I…am not willing to own stocks generically. We have a serious amount of trouble ahead. | 0.0% | -3.9% | -3.1% | 2.1% | + |
| 3/29/04 | That erosion of confidence will bring about a transformed environment, in which stocks bypass being “fair-valued” on the way to being downright cheap. | 2.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 4.5% | – |
| 1/12/04 | …when stocks go down next time, they’re going to go down for real. I anticipate that we will see a huge decline, with the major averages falling over 50%. | 1.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 4.5% | – |
| 12/8/03 | …anyone who is long equities in any kind of serious way definitely is playing with fire. | -0.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 11.1% | – |
| 11/3/03 | …stocks…have had a tremendous run on the idea that things were about to get better, and they have not. Should things continue to not get better, which is my expectation, one of these days there is going to be a massive dislocation. | -1.1% | 0.5% | 7.3% | 10.1% | – |
| 10/27/03 | …our excess-capacity economy and wildly leveraged speculators are literally a recipe for disaster. | 2.7% | 2.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% | – |
| 10/6/03 | …both the economy and the stock market are going to be in trouble in the fourth quarter and 2004. Even though it’s a low-probability event, I still would not rule out a crash-like ending to this bear-market rally. | 1.1% | 1.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | – |
| 9/15/03 | …the market will experience a dislocation when it dawns on folks that this “recovery” has no legs, that the Fed is not able to “bring it,” and that no cavalry will rush in to fix the big problems… | 0.8% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 11.2% | – |
| 8/25/03 | …don’t expect the stock market to see any meaningful gains from these levels…the next big move will be on the downside. | 2.8% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 11.5% | – |
| 8/11/03 | …the economy and the stock market are set to sputter…much lower stock prices and the problems in the market and the economy will be self-reinforcing to the downside. | 2.0% | 3.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | – |
| 7/28/03 | …the stage is set for some pretty rough sledding…this is a potent recipe for disaster. | -1.4% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 10.6% | – |
| 7/7/03 | …the market may have peaked, and we’re in the process of putting together the failing rally that I’ve been waiting to see. | -0.1% | -3.9% | 1.6% | 10.8% | + |
| 6/23/03 | Thus far, the market hasn’t even exhausted itself, so talk of a failing rally is quite premature. | -0.7% | 0.7% | 5.6% | 15.6% | + |
| 6/9/03 | While I believe this rally may still continue…there is some chance that it will end in exhaustion sometime in the next six weeks. | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 16.4% | – |
| 5/12/03 | …my gut tells me that it might be late in the day for the rally. | -2.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 16.0% | – |
| 5/5/03 | …later this year, people will finally be forced to realize that our problems are a result of the mania…. That psychological readjustment will come about when the economy and the stock market don’t come back… | 2.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 20.2% | – |
| 4/21/03 | …this is a bear-market rally, and things can change rather quickly. | 2.6% | 3.1% | 11.4% | 27.8% | – |
| 4/14/03 | …I beefed up my shorts last Wednesday, and now have a modest-sized short position. My expectation is that the market will have a hard time going up through earnings season. | 3.0% | 6.1% | 13.4% | 28.2% | – |
| 3/24/03 | …when the rally peters out, the next slide is liable to be quite brutal. | -1.9% | 6.3% | 15.2% | 28.3% | – |
| 3/10/03 | …people who think they’re going to make big money in the “long run” from these starting prices are more likely basing their faith on arm-waving than on facts. | 6.8% | 8.8% | 22.3% | 37.1% | – |
| 2/24/03 | I don’t agree…that the overwhelming expectation of a rally will prevent it from happening. I do, however, agree that the more people who expect a rally, the less dynamic and the shorter it will be. So my advice is buyers beware. | 0.3% | 5.1% | 11.9% | 37.5% | – |
| 2/3/03 | …there will be a rally leading up to — or just after — the outbreak of war. | -2.8% | -3.5% | 8.1% | 31.2% | + |
| 12/23/02 | …people would be wise to batten down the hatches when they think about next year. I believe it will be the most difficult year since the bubble burst…the market will be down for an incredible four years in a row. | -2.0% | -4.0% | -2.5% | 22.1% | – |
| 11/25/02 | …the thing to do is to continue to wait for an opportunity down the road when the risks have been reduced and the rewards are much higher. | -1.3% | -4.6% | -11.3% | 13.4% | + |
| 11/18/02 | …the rally has seen its best prices. I think that there is plenty of downside for the market… The low we set in October, ladies and gentlemen, was no more the bottom than any of the other lows were the bottom. | 3.6% | -1.0% | -6.1% | 14.8% | + |
| 10/28/02 | …the rally will not go as far and will fall apart soon… | 2.0% | 2.6% | -3.6% | 17.6% | – |
| 10/21/02 | I look forward to the opportunity to become bullish…when…risks have been properly discounted, and the price of admission to owning securities properly compensates you for taking those risks. I do not feel that way today. | -1.1% | -0.3% | -1.3% | 14.9% | + |
| 9/9/02 | …the risk/reward ratio is not attractive enough… | -1.3% | -11.6% | 0.4% | 12.6% | + |
| 8/26/02 | Sometime in the next couple of weeks,…use the opportunity to lighten up… The next time the market starts down for real,…we’ll see a wholesale liquidation in the stock market that will make what happened on the 24th of last month look just like a tune-up. | -7.4% | -11.4% | -1.5% | 5.8% | + |
| 8/12/02 | …I’m inclined to keep some shorts, even though I think the market could rally. I also attempt to hedge away some of the market risk by being long S&P futures from time to time, though I do not hold them now. | 5.2% | 0.6% | -0.1% | 9.6% | + |
| 8/2/02 | …this rally is simply a rally. It will need to be sold at some point, because we will see a resumption of the downside down the road. | 5.1% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 11.9% | + |
