Bitcoin Supply and Demand Price Forecast Scenarios

What do expectations for Bitcoin supply and demand imply for the future trajectory of its price? In the January 2025 revision of their paper entitled “A Supply and Demand Framework for Bitcoin Price Forecasting”, Murray Rudd and Dennis Porter construct a supply-and-demand model to forecast Bitcoin price trajectory. Their model combines a fixed, inelastic supply with demand drivers consisting of accumulation for strategic reserves, institutional adoption and other long-term holders. They consider a conservative scenario calibrated to April 2024 and December 2024 Bitcoin market snapshots and a bullish scenario with more aggressive institutional adoption. Based on an array of supply and demand assumptions and the market snapshots, they find that:

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