U.S. Dollar Seasonal Strength/Weakness and Stock Market Returns

A subscriber asked whether currency exchange rates exhibit reliable seasonality that may be used to time equities (with a stronger currency implying lower asset prices). To investigate, we look for reliable calendar month effects for the U.S. dollar (USD)-euro exchange rate and for Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP). We further look at how monthly returns for these variables relate to those for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Using monthly data for the USD-euro exchange rate since January 1999 and for UUP since March 2007, and corresponding data for SPY, all through November 2022, we find that: (more…)