Summary of Long-run Research On Asset Class Returns

How should investors think about research using long-run financial data? In their October 2024 paper entitled “Long-Run Asset Returns”, David Chambers, Elroy Dimson, Antti Ilmanen and Paul Rintamäki survey the body of evidence on historical return premiums for stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities over the current and previous two centuries. They discuss benefits and pitfalls of long-run datasets and make suggestions on best practices. They also compare premium estimates from alternative data compilers. Based on the body of long-run asset class return research, they conclude that:

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