Exploiting Credit Standard Changes to Time the Stock Market

Can investors exploit information about business credit tightening/loosening as reported since 1990 in the Federal Reserve’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey to time the U.S. stock market? In the January 2023 draft of his paper entitled “Profitable Timing of the Stock Market with the Senior Loan Officer Survey”, Linus Wilson examines the power of “Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Large and Middle-Market Firms” to predict S&P 500 Index next-quarter returns. A positive (negative) reading means that credit conditions are tightening (loosening) for large and medium-sized firms. Specifically, he relates January survey results to subsequent April-June stock market returns, May survey results to July-September returns, August survey results to October-December returns and November survey results to January-March returns. He considers the full sample of 32 years, two subperiods of 15 years and three subperiods of 10 years. For portfolio tests, he uses the first 15-year subperiod to model allocation decisions to the S&P 500 Index/3-month U.S. Treasury bills (either long-short the stock index or long-only the index) and applies the model to a July 2005 through March 2022 test period. Using quarterly survey results, monthly S&P 500 Index levels and monthly estimated S&P 500 dividends (from Shiller’s data) during April 1990 through March 2022, he finds that: (more…)