ISM Manufacturing PMI and Stock Market Returns

According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) each month generates the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), aggregating monthly inputs from purchasing and supply executives in manufacturing firms across the U.S. regarding new orders, production, employment, deliveries and inventories. ISM releases Manufacturing PMI for a month at the beginning of the following month. Does Manufacturing PMI predict stock market returns? Using monthly seasonally adjusted Manufacturing PMI data during January 1948 through January 2016 from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (discontinued and removed) and from press releases thereafter through August 2023, and contemporaneous monthly S&P 500 Index closes, we find that:

(more…)