When Stock Market Models Crash
October 3, 2005 - Big Ideas
Didier Sornette has an interest in financial markets as examples of complex systems. He authored Why Stock Markets Crash : Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems, published in November 2002. He has maintained on his web site for several years a series of predictions regarding the behavior of the S&P 500 index. In initiating this series, he wrote:
“Based on a theory of cooperative herding and imitation working both in bullish as well as in bearish regimes that we have developed in a series of papers, we have detected the existence of a clear signature of herding in the decay of the US S&P 500 index since August 2000 with high statistical significance, in the form of strong log-periodic components.”
His September 2002 paper (with Wei Zhou) entitled “The US 2000-2002 Market Descent: How Much Longer and Deeper?” provides a detailed justification of this assertion, including a comparison of the 1990 Japanese and 2000 U.S. stock market crashes. The evolution of Professor Sornette’s predictions is as follows: Keep Reading