Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/1/21 through 3/5/21. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs.
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- Money Velocity and the Stock Market
Evidence from simple tests offers weak (likely unexploitable) support for belief that quarterly changes in money velocity relate negatively to stock market behavior two to three quarters hence. - Remaking Value Investing
Value investing is failing due to dependence on metrics that are less and less meaningful as the global economy/equity market evolves. Value investors should include intangible assets and adopt new methods to quantify uncertainty. - Commercial and Industrial Credit as a Stock Market Driver
Evidence from simple tests indicates that net change in commercial and industrial credit standards as measured by the Federal Reserve Board’s quarterly survey of senior loan officers may have some use as a predictor of U.S. stock market returns over the next one to three quarters (but its predictions fail the past few quarters). - Comparing and Contrasting Gold and Bitcoin
While gold arguably has some value as inflation/purchasing power hedge and store of value over a very long sample period, the short bitcoin track record does not support belief that it is inflation hedge, store of value or safe haven. - Poor Firm Management and Stock Returns
Evidence indicates that high ESG incident rates negatively impact long-term firm value, and this impact only gradually materializes in associated stock performance.