As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the commentaries of Robert McHugh, Ph.D., at Safe Haven since February 2004 (the earliest we can find). Robert McHugh is president of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania “dedicated to the preservation of capital in turbulent economic times, while offering conservative and aggressive investment strategies in prosperous times.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Robert McHugh has consistently been profoundly pessimistic about long-term prospects for stocks. He is critical of the “Master Planners” of monetary supply (the Federal Reserve) and often blames their “Plunge Protection Team” for otherwise inexplicable strength of U.S. equities.
- He relies on some fundamental (money supply) but mostly technical analysis to forecast the stock market. He uses Elliott Wave analysis, Fibonacci numbers/ratios and Hindenburg Omens as indicators of major stock market turns. However, for trading, he relies on “our key trend-finder indicators, the Purchasing Power Indicators and the Stochastic signals.”
- His commentaries regarding the stock market became less regular and less direct in early 2005, perhaps in conjunction with initiating a paid advisory service. Since early 2008, the commentaries are sporadic.
- Robert McHugh’s forecast sample is moderate, as is confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
In his 4/11/10 commentary, Robert McHugh reports that [underlining added]:
“Our Purchasing Power Key Trend-finder Indicator has performed extremely well during the past year’s Bear Market Rally. There were 13 Buy signals along the way, and these buy signals identified a total of 660 points of rally in the S&P 500 if one measures the moves from the closing value of the S&P 500 on the day the buy signal was generated through the level of the furthest move in the direction of the signal that occurred before the next sell signal was generated. These are entry signals and create the opportunity for traders to take as many points as they choose, given their chosen exit strategies unique to their risk appetite, financial strength and trading experience. The entire rally from March 6th, 2009 through April 10th, 2010 has produced a rise in the S&P 500 of 528 points, so our signals more than covered this rally, by generating new buy signals after dips.”
In other words, Dr. McHugh is not calculating returns from buy signal to sell signal, but from each buy signal to the maximum index level between that buy signal and the next sell signal. To capture such returns, subscribers would have to ignore Dr. McHugh’s sell signals and substitute their own “chosen exit strategies” that somehow identify the maximum level between a given start date and and unknown end date. This method of presenting the value of the Purchasing Power Indicator is highly unrealistic.
Note that Dr. McHugh contends that his commentaries “do not present forecasts” and considers this review to be “pure garbage.” He states that, based on his private record, he has a “100 percent correct track record of forecasting turns” and an “80 percent accurate track record with…buy and sell signals.” We invite readers to read his critique of the review, browse his commentaries and decide for themselves regarding the value of this review.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Robert McHugh via Safe Haven | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 12/2/12 | … stocks are making a final rally to a major top, a top for the centuries, and a Grand Supercycle degree Bear Market will start upon this rally’s completion. | 0.6% | 3.5% | 9.2% | 26.6% | – |
| 10/13/12 | Our leaning is that the Jaws of Death pattern, which is a twenty year pattern, needs one more pretty strong rally to finish. Our leaning is this final rally in the Jaws of Death pattern could start sometime between now and the U.S. election, over the next few weeks, and take prices 7 to 10 percent higher into year end or even early 2013. | -0.4% | -6.0% | 2.3% | 21.1% | – |
| 9/8/12 | …book it, the Fed will do a QE3 program of some sort, to be announced this coming week. …The impact of QE3 should be higher prices for both precious metals markets and stock markets, for at least the short-run. But, not for the long run… There is a major top arriving some time over the next several months in stocks. …If QE3 does not come, and soon, the top we are watching for could arrive sooner rather than later. | 2.2% | 0.9% | -0.7% | 18.8% | – |
| 7/28/12 | We got a[n]… official confirmed Hindenburg Omen observation Tuesday, July 24th, 2012, meaning we are now on the clock watching for a stock market crash, and at the very least a significant decline. There is a much higher-than-random probability of a stock market crash starting sometime over the next four months. …We believe it would be unwise to ignore this potential stock market crash warning. | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 23.2% | – |
| 7/6/12 | …stocks are in the final wave c-up of an a-up, b-down, c-up for e-up. Within that wave c-up stocks appear to be finishing small degree wave 2-down, and about to start small degree wave 3-up of a five wave move for c-up of e-up. Once the top arrives, later in the year, a massive decline will begin. | 0.2% | 2.9% | 7.1% | 24.0% | 0 |
| 3/4/12 | There is a lot of cycle evidence that suggests a top is coming in March 2012. How significant a top is hard to say, but the odds are the coming decline will be at least in the 10 percent area. | 0.5% | 3.6% | -6.3% | 14.1% | – |
| 2/17/12 | By late 2012 or 2013, world stock markets should be in the infancy of a massive plunge, the worst stock market drop in centuries. …This stock market Bear Market…could last the better part of a decade. …the current Jaws of Death pattern will also see stocks rise to the upper boundary, it suggests the Industrials are likely to rise to 15,000ish in 2012. | 0.5% | 3.3% | -4.1% | 9.3% | – |
| 1/14/12 | This is a terrific high probability spot for a significant trend turn down. | 1.6% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 15.4% | – |
| 1/8/12 | I would not be surprised by one more pop early next week, then a key reversal down. This coming short-term decline (the first leg down of large degree wave 3 down) should last 2 to 4 weeks and take about 10 percent off the averages. There is another Bradley model turn date this Wednesday, January 11th, but we never got the turn for the scheduled Bradley model turn date, so maybe the two turn dates marry and point to this coming top, which should be a major top for the stock market. | 1.0% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 14.8% | – |
| 11/26/11 | We are entering Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down, the mother of all Bear Markets. …may have one more strong rally left in it… | 4.8% | 4.8% | 15.1% | 18.2% | – |
| 11/6/11 | Stocks should decline this week, according to the highest probability Elliott Wave scenarios, and according to small Head & Shoulders top patterns unfolding. Downside targets are 11,000ish in the Industrials and 1,150ish in the S&P 500. | -0.7% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 9.4% | – |
| 10/23/11 | There are a lot of Topping patterns in many different markets… These charts tell us there is a huge stock market decline coming, very likely starting next year. | -0.1% | -5.3% | 4.8% | 12.7% | – |
| 9/3/11 | An Abysmal August Jobs Report Announces a New Bear Market | 0.7% | -1.8% | 6.8% | 23.4% | – |
| 8/12/11 | The rally the past few days is most likely a correction… For now, we are taking the position it is correcting the entire decline from May 2nd… It could finish over the next week, or by the end of August at the furthermost. …wave v-down should follow, and be strong. Once v-down ends, this entire decline from the May 2nd high will be over, a huge 25 percent decline…. Then should be a wave 2-up bounce that retraces 40 to 60 percent of the decline from May 2011. What is starting here is Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down after a Broadening Ascending Wedge of massive scale completed at the May highs. This should be a Bear Market for the ages… |
-4.7% | -0.5% | 4.3% | 19.2% | – |
| 7/9/11 | We see a massive stock market topping pattern which should complete over the next 9 to 12 months. …A significant tax rebate could change this dour outlook. | -1.1% | -11.1% | -11.7% | 1.2% | – |
| 5/29/11 | Financial look okay, and should join, possibly even lead, the next rally, which should start fairly soon. …waves d-down in the BKX and in the major averages now look complete. | -4.5% | -2.8% | -12.5% | -5.0% | – |
| 5/15/11 | Stocks Are Putting In a Multi-Century Top… The present Megaphone Top pattern is dangerous. Extremely dangerous. …it is likely the massive Megaphone Top pattern we are tracking from 1998 probably will not complete until later in 2011, perhaps as late as 2012. Then all hell breaks loose… | -0.9% | -4.8% | -11.3% | -1.9% | – |
| 2/6/11 | …I am constantly searching for time studies that are reliable in suggesting the start or end of a trend. Well, there is one we have found…based upon this time analysis, we could be about to see markets drop sharply, perhaps violently. | 1.0% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | – |
| 12/16/10 | We got a second official confirmed Hindenburg Omen observation Wednesday, December 15th, 2010 after getting a first observation Tuesday, December 14th, 2010, meaning we are now on the clock watching for a stock market crash, and at the very least a significant decline. There is a much higher than normal probability of a stock market crash starting sometime over the next four months. …it would be unwise to ignore this potential stock market crash warning. | 1.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | -3.0% | – |
| 9/19/10 | We have huge Head & Shoulders top patterns showing up in major stock markets, have an Elliott Wave count which is close to topping, and the autumn is approaching once again, so the odds are high that another sharp decline is coming sometime in the fourth quarter 2010… | 0.0% | 2.0% | 8.8% | 2.1% | – |
| 8/29/10 | …the market is in an unstable condition, and it is at these times that markets are especially vulnerable to a stock market crash. …there is a 70 percent chance we will not see a full-blown crash over the next three and a half months… But there are higher odds that a large and significant decline could come over this period, even if it falls short of a crash. | 4.1% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 16.2% | – |
| 8/21/10 | There is a much higher than normal probability of a stock market crash starting sometime over the next four months. …there is a 77.8 percent probability that a stock market decline of at least 5 percent will occur [within the next four months]. …it would be unwise to ignore this potential stock market crash warning. | -1.7% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 10.3% | – |
| 7/18/10 | The July rally…appears to be over. | 4.1% | 2.0% | 9.6% | 23.8% | – |
| 7/4/10 | More downside is expected before this crash pauses… Now we are getting the second and most dangerous phase of the Bear Market, catastrophic wave (C) down. It is just starting… Conditions are conducive to a stock market waterfall decline at this time. … This is a dangerous situation. | 6.5% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 31.6% | – |
| 6/12/10 | …short-term we are now in a high probability zone for a stock market crash. …this catastrophic…down leg of the Grand Supercycle Degree Bear Market that started in 2007 will see a series of stock market crashes over the next 3 to 5 years. …when all is said and done, the Industrials, the S&P 500, and most major domestic and international stock indices will be near the value zero. This belief is based upon the technical analysis patterns and indicators that we follow, and is not some wild speculative opinion. …by the end of 2010, we would have seen stock prices fall at least 20 percent below where they are this weekend. | 2.2% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 16.1% | – |
| 6/6/10 | …the risk of a stock market crash is high at this time. That said, stocks can extend their recent rally and push back a major sell-off for several weeks before a plunge begins… | 3.7% | 0.9% | 3.8% | 21.8% | – |
| 5/24/10 | …stocks have entered catastrophic wave (C) down, which should be the third and most devastating phase of the Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} Bear Market. This decline has the potential to be a nation changing economic meltdown. | -0.3% | 1.7% | -0.2% | 23.0% | – |
| 5/7/10 | And it is not over. More danger lies ahead. That does not mean a bounce cannot occur from time to time, but patterns are warning that there are serious risks to economies and global stock markets, dangers that could wipe out 80 percent of more of the value of stocks over the next several years. | 2.2% | -4.4% | 1.3% | 22.2% | – |
| 4/11/10 | …there has not been a change in the tide yet. Signs of a coming trend turn are on the horizon, but until our key trend-finder indicators generate sells across the board, prices could inch higher. | 0.1% | -3.4% | -9.9% | 9.8% | + |
| 1/11/10 | If we are correct, …another massive stock market decline is coming again. …This is a dangerous economic time for investors, regardless of whether the plunge starts soon or remains in the future. …our fear is that we are going to get a zig-zag pattern, with a potential downside target close to zero. Maybe zero to 1,000 in the Industrials, and zero to 100 in the S&P 500. …Once this rally finishes, we expect a severe stock market decline again. | 0.3% | -6.9% | 4.3% | 12.1% | – |
| 10/4/09 | …a top is more than due. …the odds are high that another sharp decline is coming sometime in the fourth quarter 2009… | 3.4% | 0.5% | 8.9% | 11.3% | – |
| 8/1/09 | Once this spring/summer rally finishes, we expect a severe stock market decline again. That decline should be the end of the Bear Market that started in late 2007. …this rally could last several more months. …The “Sell” signal in our long-term PTI signal warns that there is substantial downside coming. …there is great risk we will see 30 percent declines. | 0.4% | -0.5% | 6.3% | 12.3% | – |
| 7/25/08 | We believe the plunge is not over, however a short reprieve for a few weeks has started. | 0.2% | 0.7% | -27.8% | -22.5% | + |
| 7/12/08 | …there are compelling indicators and patterns suggesting that most major markets are about to see trend changes, starting sooner than many folks realize. | 2.6% | 5.0% | -25.9% | -23.4% | + |
| 7/4/08 | You may want to think about taking prudent precautionary action according to your investment advisor given the much higher than normal odds of a crash. …It may mean increasing cash positions or hitting the sidelines for a while. Or it may mean a carefully constructed shorting strategy developed with your advisor, that limits losses, and invests only the amount which you can afford to lose. …the odds of a 5 percent decline or more remain pretty high at 76.9 percent. | -1.9% | 2.6% | -11.0% | -29.5% | + |
| 3/9/08 | These patterns are huge, and the downside targets are 20 percent below where we stand now in several averages. In other words, these patterns are calling for a stock market crash. These patterns are saying that the Bear Market is nowhere near over. …Raise cash. Do it now. | 0.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | -41.0% | – |
| 1/19/08 | Well, we can now say we have seen a stock market crash over the past three months. More is coming. …If prices do not immediately rally, it means stocks are hitting the sweet spot of the ongoing crash. | 4.0% | 2.4% | 5.9% | -36.5% | – |
| 7/26/07 | Major trend reversals are expected, by late summer; Down in equities… | -0.7% | -0.2% | 2.5% | -14.8% | – |
| 7/10/07 | S&P 500 Demand Power fell… This indicator triggered an “exit long positions” signal…there is a far greater than normal risk of a significant decline between now and the first week of October. …take Tuesday’s plunge very seriously. | 2.6% | -0.8% | 3.1% | -17.9% | + |
| 7/9/07 | …the Dow Industrials are approaching an Intermediate term top. …there is evidence that…more upside is likely over the next few weeks, leading to that top. …Once complete, prices can be expected to drop…at a minimum…into the 9,000s over the intermediate-term, although…it could be 9,000 in real dollars (gold adjusted), not nominal. …a huge Bull market rally will follow the coming multi-month correction. | 1.2% | -3.6% | 0.7% | -18.2% | – |
| 6/30/07 | The S&P 500 Demand Power/Supply Pressure indicator generated a new “enter short positions” signal on June 20th, and remains there Friday, June 29th. …However, we are uncomfortable with the enter short position signal, as that would be going against the primary trend, and has been an unprofitable venture in the past. …That said, the confirmed Hindenburg Omen suggests that shorting could payoff nicely, if one has the stomach for the risk, and allows enough time to ride the short-run pattern out. | -0.6% | -3.5% | 0.5% | -16.9% | + |
| 6/2/07 | …our proprietary S&P 500 Demand Power/Supply Pressure indicator remains on an “enter long positions”… | -2.0% | -0.9% | -5.3% | -8.8% | – |
| 5/25/07 | Bottom Line: Major trend reversals are expected, by mid-2007, if not sooner. Down in equities… | 1.5% | -1.5% | -3.5% | -7.8% | + |
| 4/28/07 | …the rising trend that started in late March looks to have further to go. | 1.7% | 3.2% | -1.6% | -4.6% | + |
| 4/22/07 | …the rising trend that started in late March looks to have further to go. That could change if we were to suddenly see two or three days of huge declining Demand and rising Supply, but as of now, there is still plenty of Demand out there to sustain this rally. | 0.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | -6.2% | + |
| 3/17/07 | If history is a predictor, the Dow Industrials will plunge much further. The next sharp thrust lower could start around mid-March 2007 if the cycle analysis…is going to be an accurate predictor. | 2.5% | 5.0% | 9.3% | -5.2% | – |
| 3/3/07 | Last week’s carnage is simply the first small degree wave of what should be a protracted and severe decline throughout most of 2007. | 2.4% | 4.6% | 11.8% | -5.1% | – |
| 2/10/07 | This is not random. This is a normal pattern of distribution and market buying/selling psychology that naturally leads to major tops, and subsequent declines ranging from 10 percent to 40 percent over a period from a month to 11 months. | 1.8% | -3.2% | 4.9% | -5.9% | + |
| 1/27/07 | …this is no guarantee we are about to get a major plunge, however the risk to longs has increased because this pattern has shown up so many times before major plunges. | 1.9% | -1.0% | 5.2% | -3.0% | + |
| 12/3/06 | …no guarantees here of a coming smashup, but there is some risk one could be coming. Of the five periods analogued, the current 2002-2006 pattern best replicates the 1929 pattern, suggesting 2007 could turn ugly. | 0.3% | 0.0% | -1.2% | 6.8% | + |
| 11/3/06 | Prices should reach…12,500 if topping in the next month. Then bang! [1929-style crash] | 1.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 8.1% | – |
| 10/28/06 | …the Dow Industrials have formed their most significant tops within one week of a consecutive series of Fibonacci weeks from that date…the next top is scheduled for the week of November 17th, 2006… | 0.1% | 1.6% | 4.4% | 9.6% | – |
| 10/13/06 | …this is not the sort of rally that is likely to last more than a few months. Further, our other technical analysis work suggests we are putting in a major top here. | 0.2% | 1.4% | 4.9% | 12.8% | – |
| 10/1/06 | …October 24th will be a major turn. What we do not know is if it will be a bottom or a top. But it will be a turn. | 1.5% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 17.0% | – |
| 9/2/06 | …a multi-week stock market decline of some significance is coming over the next 4 to 6 weeks. …It takes being a cock-eyed optimist, or having full faith in government intervention, to see a long-term Bull market rally continuing from where we stand today. | 0.0% | 2.8% | 6.4% | 10.5% | – |
| 8/26/06 | The Dow Industrials have declined sharply every Autumn for the past nine years in a row…and it is setting up to do so again in 2006. | 0.9% | 2.7% | 7.6% | 13.2% | – |
| 8/12/06 | The NASDAQ 100 has been crashing since May 8th…this crash is not over. | 2.3% | 3.9% | 8.7% | 14.0% | – |
| 7/15/06 | …there is likely one more decline coming early next week…maybe a hundred points… [There] isn’t going to be much of a bounce, maybe 100 to 150 points… Then another wave down…should take the Dow Industrials to…10,400… This coming bottom is just the first leg dow…we are talking a bottom…around 9,700. Worse, after an August relief rally, we will be set up for another steep decline in the fall, as equities work their way lower into the 4 year and 8 year cycle lows due in late 2006, or early 2007. | 2.1% | 4.1% | 10.4% | 24.3% | – |
| 6/24/06 | …one more thrust up coming next week, perhaps topping after July 4th, due to positive seasonals. After this rally completes,…a sharp decline should follow | 2.4% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 20.2% | – |
| 6/10/06 | …there is more decline coming. | -0.1% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 24.0% | – |
| 6/2/06 | Any surprises over the next week should be to the downside, as that is where the major trend lies. Caution is warranted. | -2.8% | -0.6% | 1.2% | 15.7% | + |
| 4/30/06 | …this should be the final rally to a top. Once it tops, there should be a huge decline… | 1.5% | -2.7% | -2.0% | 15.4% | + |
| 4/23/06 | …think about taking prudent precautionary action… It may mean increasing cash positions or hitting the sidelines for a while. Or it may mean a carefully constructed shorting strategy… | -0.2% | -3.9% | -5.2% | 14.2% | + |
| 4/5/06 | Looks like we could see another 200 points +/- mini rally over the next week in the Dow Industrials…not the sort of power needed to catapult markets the next 1,000 points higher. Caution is warranted. | -1.8% | 1.1% | -3.1% | 9.7% | – |
| 3/20/06 | We believe most most equity indices will decline to test their 200 day moving averages sometime over the next three weeks. …The Bear is about to return and he’s famished. If we liken technical analysis to the time when Noah was building his ark, it’s safe to say it is now raining. Extreme caution is warranted. | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 6.9% | – |
| 3/5/06 | March is loaded with political risks, cyclical risks, and technical indicator risks. They all point down. | 0.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 9.7% | – |
| 2/28/06 | …we have to conclude something huge is about to occur in markets in March/April. | -0.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 7.3% | – |
| 2/5/06 | …we are once again faced with a warning of an approaching major multi-month, perhaps multi-year trend change – this time down. | -0.2% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 13.7% | – |
| 1/15/06 | Primary…wave…up is nearing completion now. Next is a nasty primary…wave…down… | -1.3% | -0.2% | 0.2% | 10.9% | – |
| 12/19/05 | It could be shaping up to be the major top we are looking for – or the next low which will lead to a final rally into a major top later in the first quarter 2006. | -0.3% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 12.6% | – |
| 11/6/05 | …2006 could see equity prices significantly lower than they sit today. | 0.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 12.7% | – |
| 10/30/05 | In September, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index generated a Stock Market Crash warning with a precipitous drop…We expect the Dow Industrials to follow the lead of the MCSI soon, be that days, weeks, or a couple of months. | 1.3% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 13.3% | – |
| 10/23/05 | …another panic selling event…could come in the next few weeks – and may already be underway. | 0.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 15.8% | – |
| 10/16/05 | We currently have five Hindenburg Omens on the meter from September 2005, and thus remain in dangerous waters, regardless of what rallies occur over the next week or two. | 0.8% | 3.3% | 7.8% | 14.9% | – |
| 10/8/05 | …we can count on prices declining…all Bearish set ups. | 0.2% | 2.6% | 8.7% | 14.8% | – |
| 10/2/05 | …here are the five signals that meet all five of the conditions required for a potential stock market crash warning… | -3.2% | -2.0% | 1.8% | 10.3% | + |
| 9/18/05 | This, my dear friends is a Stock Market Crash warning…stand up and take notice… | -1.3% | -4.3% | 3.2% | 7.1% | + |
| 9/11/05 | The price action in the Dow Industrials in 2005 has been nearly identical to the price action of 1987. The difference is, the 2005 action is about one month ahead of the 1987 price action. If this analog holds up, the Dow Industrials are set up to crash. …we must remain alert. | -0.8% | -4.5% | 1.2% | 6.1% | + |
| 9/6/05 | …a perfect setup for 2005’s version of the autumn plunge. Get ready. | -0.2% | -3.0% | 2.6% | 5.3% | + |
| 8/21/05 | …we now have a high probability that the NDX will decline… | -0.8% | -0.9% | 1.7% | 6.1% | + |
| 7/10/05 | …we have a final rally leg underway before a huge…decline. | 0.1% | 1.0% | -2.3% | 1.9% | – |
| 6/5/05 | …it sure smells like a top, doesn’t it? | 0.3% | -0.2% | 2.0% | 5.0% | – |
| 5/8/05 | Equities should put in a top this week, then a sharp decline should follow, in stair-step fashion. Caution is warranted. | -1.1% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 10.8% | – |
| 5/1/05 | Equities could rally in choppy fashion another day or so, but should soon decline hard toward the 9,700 to 9,900 area over the next week, likely hitting a sustainable bottom…May 6th to 10th. Caution is warranted. | 1.4% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 12.9% | – |
| 3/25/05 | …prices should have peaked in early March 2005, consistent with the March “turns” phenomenon, and that next is a longterm devastating decline. | 0.2% | -1.9% | 2.3% | 11.0% | – |
| 2/6/05 | …conservative wealth managers should heed the warnings that this market is at greater downside risk than upside potential. Caution remains warranted. | 0.4% | 0.4% | -2.5% | 5.2% | + |
| 1/30/05 | …the move down from late December in equities is about to encounter panic selling… This decline probably has one, maybe two weeks left in it, then a rally which we do not believe will reach new highs. Then, a precipitous decline – a crash – is a strong possibility into March 2005. Caution remains warranted. | 1.7% | 2.4% | -2.1% | 7.6% | – |
| 1/23/05 | …it is at best a time for the sidelines. There are so many ominous technical signs right now. Caution remains warranted. | 1.5% | 2.3% | -1.0% | 9.5% | – |
| 1/16/05 | Can the Master Planners delay the coming decline? Maybe not this time. …Caution remains warranted. | -2.3% | 1.2% | -4.2% | 5.5% | + |
| 12/19/04 | A decline can begin at any time, however the sharpest slope downward will likely occur in early 2005. Caution remains warranted. | 1.6% | -1.6% | -0.9% | 5.7% | + |
| 12/12/04 | Whether the precipitous decline begins tomorrow or two months from now, it is coming….Caution remains warranted. | -0.3% | -0.9% | 0.7% | 6.2% | – |
| 12/5/04 | You can chase this rally for the hope of another 5 percent, but risks are high that you either won’t get them or will get them and then lose far more. Caution remains warranted. | 0.7% | -0.5% | 2.9% | 5.6% | + |
| 11/28/04 | …now is not the time to chase a possible last gasp 5 or 10 percent price spike by going long… Caution remains warranted. | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 6.0% | – |
| 11/21/04 | You can chase a possible – but by no means certain – 10 percent rally by going long here, however risks are high that you get trapped in a shocking downdraft. Wealth preservation objectives argue for conservatism here. Caution remains warranted. | -0.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 7.5% | – |
| 11/14/04 | …equities are set to fall soon…conservative wealth preservationists will find more sleep at night not trying to earn every last nickel from a terminating rally. …Caution remains warranted. | -0.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | – |
| 11/7/04 | It is not a certainty that a new secondary Bull run is upon us. Should it occur, we will be eager to point that out. Caution remains warranted. | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | – |
| 10/31/04 | Equity markets will make sense of all this…by retrenching – in a big way…as a forerunner for a significant recession… Caution is warranted. | 3.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | – |
| 10/24/04 | Fundamentals are frightening…and the technical picture is even worse. Caution is warranted. | 3.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | – |
| 10/17/04 | …we should see everyone – including the Hedgies – run for cover and find a new meaning and appreciation for cash. Caution is warranted. | -1.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | – |
| 10/10/04 | …the structure of this market is so fragile, that it wouldn’t take much to spook it and bring about panic supply orders. …Extreme Caution is warranted. | -0.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | – |
| 10/3/04 | The rally Friday is a Bear trap. Optimism will fade as a surprise selloff occurs. | -0.9% | -0.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | – |
| 9/26/04 | …the Bears may have to be patient for another six weeks. That said, this is a time where great caution should be exercised. | 2.9% | 0.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | – |
| 9/19/04 | …the immediate expectation is for a decline. | -1.7% | -1.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | + |
| 9/12/04 | The rally since mid-August is coming to conclusion, likely over the next few days. …Caution is warranted. | -0.3% | -0.4% | 5.6% | 9.0% | + |
| 9/5/04 | Markets appear ready for key reversals next week with major declines set up… Caution is warranted. | 0.6% | 1.9% | 6.2% | 9.8% | – |
| 8/29/04 | Equities should rally into late next week, then a precipitous decline should occur throughout September and perhaps into October. Caution is warranted. | 2.0% | 1.4% | 7.6% | 11.0% | – |
| 8/22/04 | The Master Planners have lost control… Caution is warranted. | 0.3% | 1.6% | 8.0% | 10.4% | – |
| 8/15/04 | Most financial markets are headed lower over the intermediate term. Caution is warranted. | 1.5% | 3.8% | 8.7% | 13.1% | – |
| 8/8/04 | …we are nowhere near a bottom. …Defense is warranted. | 1.3% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 15.4% | – |
| 8/1/04 | The coming worldwide collapse in financial markets looks like it is going to catch the majority by surprise. But, then again, doesn’t a crisis always? Caution is warranted. | -3.7% | -0.2% | 1.9% | 12.5% | – |
| 7/25/04 | …a stock market Crash, be it sudden or in slow motion, should hit the major averages before the election. Caution is warranted. | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 14.1% | – |
| 7/18/04 | Intermediate patterns indicate equity averages are headed much lower. In the short run, we expect some additional decline to equities, to be followed by enough rally correction to remove oversold conditions. Fundamentals seem to be catching up to the technicals. Caution is warranted. | -1.5% | -1.7% | 0.2% | 12.2% | + |
| 7/11/04 | The Intermediate-term picture is for an equity market collapse. | -1.2% | -3.2% | 1.5% | 9.8% | – |
| 7/4/04 | …if there ever was a time when markets are fragile, when markets could plummet from some trigger event, it is now. | -0.1% | -1.6% | 1.4% | 7.3% | – |
| 6/27/04 | …equities can run higher for a couple of weeks. …equities are at high risk over the next sixty days. …Caution is warranted. | -1.5% | -3.3% | -2.1% | 5.9% | + |
| 6/20/04 | …the Federal Reserve…have confirmed our Crash concerns. …Defensive strategies are warranted. | 0.3% | -3.2% | -0.2% | 7.4% | + |
| 6/13/04 | …technical indicators remain quite Bearish, with market conditions overbought – fertile ground for price deflation. Defensive strategies are warranted. | 0.4% | -1.2% | -0.1% | 7.2% | + |
| 6/6/04 | The stage is set for the next stock market collapse. Defensive strategies are warranted. | -0.7% | -2.7% | -2.3% | 5.3% | + |
| 5/30/04 | …something horrific is on the horizon – and soon. …Defensive strategies are warranted. | 1.9% | 0.7% | -2.0% | 6.7% | – |
| 5/23/04 | …over the very short-term horizon – next 2 to 4 days – I expect a sharp brief decline… The Memorial Day holiday weekend is a feelgood time and a likely spot to kickoff the two to three week mini-rally…June 15th’s key Fibonacci turn date may be a high… Defensive strategies are warranted. | 2.4% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 9.3% | – |
| 5/16/04 | Tough market to trade. Could go either way. …Defensive strategies are warranted. | 1.0% | 4.4% | -0.4% | 9.9% | – |
| 5/9/04 | …expect a panic, fear-driven mass exodus during a day or two of selling some time over the next six weeks… | -0.3% | 4.1% | -2.0% | 6.6% | – |
| 5/1/04 | The Bear is back. …we are at high risk of crashes… Defensive strategies are warranted. | -2.7% | 0.7% | -1.0% | 4.9% | + |
| 4/25/04 | Another week or two of rising prices should be enough to push equity markets into overbought territory, a potential kickoff to a significant decline. At that point, defensive strategies are warranted. | -1.6% | -2.0% | -4.5% | 0.7% | – |
| 4/17/04 | Defensive strategies may be warranted. | 0.0% | -3.9% | -3.1% | 2.1% | + |
| 4/3/04 | …one cannot ignore the massive quantities of money the Fed is flooding the markets with at this time, and it’s possible short to intermediate-term Bullish result. Caution is wise. | -1.8% | -2.5% | -3.0% | 2.7% | – |
| 3/28/04 | …the rally since March 2003 is truly over. …June 15th, 2004 looks like the next major turn date and it most likely could be a bottom. Not “the” bottom, but “a” bottom. This decline is going to surprise. Extreme caution is warranted. | 2.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 4.5% | – |
| 3/14/04 | …a major equity decline is in the offing. …in spite of huge M-3 growth, equities are breaking down anyway. That may mean the Fed is losing its grip on this next leg of the Bear market which promises to be a doozy. Extreme caution is warranted. | -0.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 7.8% | – |
| 3/7/04 | Technicals are begging for a correction in equities, and soon and fairly steep. But M-3 is a governor, a brake, a safety net. …At some point money pumping is seen for what it is – fake wealth. …Be very cautious. | -3.7% | 0.1% | -2.2% | 5.4% | + |
| 2/29/04 | The innocent are in place for slaughter. …Be very cautious. | -0.8% | -2.5% | -3.0% | 4.7% | + |
| 2/21/04 | …if M-3 is really not rising as we think, then equities are in a lot of trouble as the only safety net supporting this market may not really be there. Be very cautious here. | 1.3% | -4.1% | -4.5% | 5.2% | + |
| 2/19/04 | Absent master planner intervention, the demise of this impressive Bear market rally draws nigh. Be very cautious. | -0.2% | -3.3% | -4.8% | 3.2% | + |
