We evaluate here the commentary in “Jubak’s Journal” at MSN Money since January 2001. Jim Jubak is the senior markets editor for MSN Money, with a background in journalism. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Jim Jubak recommends specific stock buys and sells more than overall market ins and outs. In his own words: “When the big picture is confusing, it pays to focus on the details.” The commentary summaries below focus on those times that he does offer observations about overall market direction.
- He has been generally pessimistic about the U.S. economy, with dire predictions regarding deficits, inflation and the dollar (with interest therefore in foreign stocks).
- By his own measurements, Jim Jubak’s stock-picking results have been very good (we have not validated).
- Jim Jubak’s sample size is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
Separately, note that Jim Jubak is Lead Manager for the recently introduced Jubak Global Equity (JUBAX) mutual fund, which generated a return of 2.17%% over the year ending October 2012.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Jim Jubak via MSN Money | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 10/4/12 | …I think the odds favor a rising stock market for the fourth quarter as a whole. …this is just a near-term outlook. | -2.0% | -2.3% | 0.0% | 15.8% | – |
| 9/27/12 | I expect another financial Band-Aid… That would likely trigger another market rally. …If we do get one more bounce from a financial fix in Europe in the coming weeks, I’d think of it as an opportunity to reduce risk in preparation for what could be a very challenging start to 2013. | 1.0% | -2.4% | -3.1% | 16.0% | – |
| 9/17/12 | Bet on this rally (cautiously)… More aid from central banks and the potential for more good news should keep this rally going through December. But there’s enough risk to keep me from going all in. | -0.3% | -0.4% | -2.1% | 16.5% | – |
| 8/2/12 | This adds up to another reason — or set of reasons — to think that August will be a down month for global stocks. …If you’re been waiting to buy, I think you can keep waiting unless you get a really stunning sell-off in a stock you’ve always wanted to own. Even then, don’t buy with the expectation of a quick recovery. I think the catalysts for any, even temporary, turn will be the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s late August retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo., and the Sept. 13 meeting of the Federal Reserve… | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 24.4% | – |
| 3/26/12 | There is…a strong argument for moving some portion of your portfolio to the sidelines for a few months. …I’m not looking for a replay of the 2008 meltdown. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a replay of some of the worst downside volatility of 2011 if any of these scenarios comes about. | 0.2% | -1.8% | -5.8% | 10.9% | + |
| 2/20/12 | …I think we’ve got fuel for a continued rally into early March. But in March I’d start to look to lower the risk in my portfolio. Gradually. In U.S. markets I’d do that by raising some cash…I don’t think we’re looking at a horrible plunge in the market. I think we’re seeing a shift in risk/reward that might lead to a correction. (A reasonable estimate for a correction would be a pullback to 1,250 or 1,260…) I still think the second half of 2012 will be good to investors in stocks… | 0.7% | 3.0% | -4.9% | 9.9% | + |
| 1/19/12 | …there’s not unlimited fuel in the tank, but there is some. | 0.3% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 13.7% | + |
| 12/12/11 | I’m worried — make that very worried — about the first half of 2012 for investors. …the goal is to be sitting on a significant amount of cash that you can put to work when uncertainty has driven prices lower by May or June or July. …I’m not looking for a market collapse in the first half of 2012. The model for the next six months might be the past six months of high volatility around a downward trend in share prices… | -2.5% | 4.8% | 12.9% | 15.7% | – |
| 10/24/11 | I think the financial markets may get enough of what they want from Europe in the next week to produce an end-of-the-year rally. | -0.1% | -5.3% | 4.8% | 12.7% | – |
| 9/19/11 | A broad market rally is likely later this fall… I suspect we’re going to get some kind of November/December rally in stocks… | -3.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 21.3% | – |
| 9/12/11 | I think there’s a rally coming that won’t hold. Then, one more big disappointment will wash out the market. …Wait for the next move down to put money to work again. | 3.6% | 2.9% | 6.2% | 25.6% | + |
| 7/22/11 | …the risk/reward ratio is tilted toward reward over the next few weeks…the risk/reward ratio will [then] tilt back toward risk in the fall… | -3.9% | -16.4% | -10.0% | -0.5% | – |
| 6/30/11 | This stock market, in my opinion, shows a short-term July rally inside a summer slump, …inside a liquidity-fueled boom, inside a liquidity-fueled bust. | 1.8% | -2.6% | -12.8% | 4.0% | + |
| 6/6/11 | Time to lighten up on US stocks… There are numerous parallels with the market’s current malaise and last summer’s 15% drop. And this summer’s swoon could be even worse… | -1.1% | 4.1% | -6.4% | 2.2% | – |
| 4/18/11 | …the U.S. stock market won’t do as well in the second half of 2011 as it will in the first half. | 3.2% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 5.6% | + |
| 3/7/11 | There’s evidence that expectations for the U.S. economy and U.S. stocks are starting to run ahead of reality. When that happens, a stock market is setting itself up for a fallow period, or even a correction… Sometime in May, then, I’d start to look at selling… | -1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 4.3% | + |
| 12/13/10 | It’s a bond rout. …all that’s uncertain is the speed with which bond prices will fall and interest rates will rise. …A rout in the bond market will be good for the stock market. | 0.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | -2.3% | + |
| 11/29/10 | For the next few weeks, couple of months or maybe as long as a quarter or two, the U.S. stock market and the U.S. economy are the best in the world…and you need to make sure you own enough of its stock market to take advantage of that temporary superiority. | 3.0% | 6.1% | 11.7% | 5.0% | + |
| 11/18/10 | …an investment strategy for 2011? You’d still like to be invested for the second half of the year when the odds, to my way of thinking, point toward a pickup in economic growth. | -0.6% | 4.2% | 12.0% | -0.3% | – |
| 11/11/10 | Right now, most technical indicators are still pointing up for stocks in the United States and in other global markets in the medium and long terms. I think those indicators are correct — for the moment. The fourth quarter should be good for stocks… So, how long can you count on the Fed to back up your stock portfolio? Certainly through the end of 2010 and almost certainly through the end of the first quarter. | -1.4% | 2.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | + |
| 10/1/10 | There may be bumps along the way…but the trend says stocks will be higher at the end of the year than they are now. Certainty that this trend is what we think it is: 80%. | 1.6% | 3.3% | 9.7% | -1.9% | + |
| 9/23/10 | …I’m worried that the stall will come before earnings season starts…less than 10%…on the Standard & Poor’s 500. And I fully expect we will see the rally resume in late October or early November. | 1.5% | 5.2% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 0 |
| 9/10/10 | …we’re still in a range-bound market, with a top near 1,130… But we’re seeing positive signs that the market is getting ready for a sustainable move above that range. …I’m guardedly hopeful about stocks as we head into the fall. | 1.4% | 5.0% | 10.7% | 5.7% | + |
| 7/8/10 | …the probability is fairly high — say, the two-thirds odds that I mentioned earlier — that current prices are cheap. But the past two years have been full of events that fall outside the two-thirds band that defines business as usual. So I’m going to be just a little cautious yet and wait… | 2.5% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 23.3% | 0 |
| 3/18/10 | Conditions aren’t so fabulous that I want to go out and bet the farm on U.S. stocks, but they are good enough that I might want to add a dash of U.S. stock to my portfolio for the next quarter or two. | 0.0% | 2.7% | -4.4% | 11.4% | – |
| 2/22/10 | …I expect [the rally] to peter out somewhere near the middle of the year. | 0.7% | 6.0% | -3.3% | 18.0% | + |
| 2/15/10 | …2010 is going to be one tough year for investors to make a buck. Volatility will be high. Trends won’t last long. Emotions will drive the crowd from euphoria to panic in a matter of days. It will be a time to take profits when you have them, to control losses… | 0.0% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 22.1% | – |
| 1/21/10 | …the odds that stocks will deliver the earnings needed to justify higher share prices look pretty good in the first half of 2010 and then decline as the second half progresses. …by 2011, the chances that the stock market will get the precise balance it needs are almost nil. | -2.9% | -0.8% | 8.0% | 15.6% | – |
| 11/16/09 | I think this rally continues to have legs. It is worth investing in or staying invested in. | -0.3% | 0.0% | -0.9% | 7.9% | + |
| 9/15/09 | Over the next few weeks, I’m going to take advantage of what is the end stage of this rally… | 1.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 0 |
| 4/28/09 | …this rally will yield to a correction in the next month or six weeks. | 5.7% | 6.0% | 14.9% | 38.8% | – |
| 4/21/09 | The recovery is still more than six months away, …and this rally will end in disappointment… …50% in cash and 50% in stocks, and I’m planning on staying that way for a while. | 0.6% | 6.3% | 11.9% | 43.2% | – |
| 4/10/09 | …it pays to wait right now. …I want to see a turn confirmed and confirmed again before I put more money into stocks. …Stay skeptical. …All in all, I don’t think this stock market is going anywhere in the next few months. | -3.1% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 41.1% | – |
| 11/25/08 | …it’s still too early. …investors who have managed to put and keep some cash on the sidelines will get their chance to invest it — for the long term — sometime in the last half of 2009 or in early 2010. | 1.6% | 1.8% | -12.2% | 27.8% | 0 |
| 10/14/08 | In the next month or so, a big rally… The rally fails in early 2009… By mid-2009, pessimism deepens… In late 2009 and early 2010, the bottom… Recovery after 2010… | -10.1% | -14.6% | -12.6% | 9.0% | – |
| 10/10/08 | I don’t think this bear will go quickly or be succeeded rapidly by a vigorous bull market. …If you can catch the next rally — right now, Oct. 23 seems a potential start date…and then move to more cash… | 9.6% | 2.2% | -1.0% | 21.4% | + |
| 9/30/08 | Cheer up. The economy is about to go into a recession, and good times are on the way. | -14.6% | -20.3% | -25.5% | -12.1% | 0 |
| 7/8/08 | …I’m still looking for the kind of washout that sends an “all clear” signal after a market like this. …I’m sitting on a 33% cash position…both the market and the economy are likely to grind lower from here…but I don’t see anything so negative that it will lead to a panic. | -4.6% | 1.2% | -13.7% | -31.0% | 0 |
| 6/17/08 | I don’t think the overall stock market is out of the woods quite yet. The major averages…seem intent on testing their March lows. | -2.7% | -6.7% | -11.7% | -31.8% | + |
| 5/2/08 | I’ve got Jubak’s Picks 40% in cash…a position I think is prudent. If, as I believe, we’re going to see a correction in the next few weeks back toward, and perhaps through, the March 10 low, then it’s OK to wait. | -1.4% | -2.1% | -10.0% | -34.7% | + |
| 4/25/08 | Although stocks’ recent movement has been up, they’re trading in a fairly narrow range. Now that they’re near the top of it, expect them to head down again. …all we have is a rally in a longer bear-market trend. | 0.7% | -0.9% | -10.4% | -37.5% | + |
| 3/21/08 | …I remain skeptical that a Wall Street so near to panic on one day can be completely healed the next…I’ll wait with half a portfolio in the market and half in cash… | -2.0% | 1.9% | -0.5% | -39.7% | + |
| 1/29/08 | We’re in the early stages of what will become a full-fledged bear market that will stretch well toward the end of 2008 and result in losses north of 20% from the October 2007 high. …We’ve got a lot of fake-out rallies and painful plunges to go before we see the bottom… It’s not yet time to go on a buying spree. | -1.9% | 0.4% | 2.1% | -39.4% | + |
| 1/22/08 | I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market attempt a rally… After all, just as bull market advances are punctuated by market declines, so too are bear market falls interrupted by rallies. …Take a deep breath before you join any rally. | 4.0% | 2.4% | 5.9% | -36.5% | + |
| 1/18/08 | …the next big leg of the crisis — the one I think will mark the true bottom — has just started. | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.9% | -37.6% | – |
| 12/28/07 | …I’m going to follow the strategy…of building cash and taking small test positions… | -4.2% | -8.3% | -10.5% | -38.9% | + |
| 12/21/07 | Raise cash if you can. Keep new cash on the sidelines… The risk is to the downside, and there’s a good chance you’ll be able to buy what you want to buy at a cheaper price later in the year. | -1.1% | -8.9% | -8.9% | -41.5% | + |
| 11/13/07 | U.S. stocks and bonds and the dollar are being pummeled by a perfect storm — and the damage is far from over. | -2.8% | 0.5% | -7.7% | -41.0% | + |
| 10/30/07 | …the U.S. boat isn’t likely to float to as big a gain as other markets. In fact, the U.S. stock market may be dead in the water because so much bad news centers on trouble in the U.S. debt market, the U.S. financial sector and the U.S. economy. | -0.7% | -4.0% | -11.4% | -36.7% | + |
| 9/11/07 | …I’m deeply pessimistic about…financial markets over the next 12 to 18 months. …we’re likely to get out of this mess — in the short run, at least — by flooding the financial markets with hundreds of billions in new money from the world’s central banks. …It will produce a rally in the stock market…a solid fourth-quarter rally sometime after mid-October. | 3.3% | 6.2% | 2.3% | -14.9% | 0 |
| 7/27/07 | As long as the economy holds up reasonably well…the damage to the overall stock market is limited to the long-awaited 10% correction. …There’s no need to panic. | -1.8% | 0.5% | 3.9% | -12.0% | + |
| 7/10/07 | Over the next six months, I think better-than-expected economic growth will outweigh slowly climbing interest rates and that stocks will finish slightly above current levels….Rising volatility will make that modest gain a very bumpy ride. | 2.6% | -0.8% | 3.1% | -17.9% | – |
| 6/22/07 | …stocks will do relatively well — at least for the next 12 months. Even after the June bond debacle, stock investors could well see a 12% to 15% return on the major indexes in 2007. | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | -12.0% | – |
| 6/11/07 | I don’t think the current dip yells a loud “sell” on your portfolio. After recovering from what is likely to be a modest correction, …the S&P 500 Index is likely to tack on an additional 3 to 5 percentage points to what was, before the recent drop, a 9% gain for the year. | 1.5% | 0.6% | -3.7% | -11.2% | – |
| 5/11/07 | Until [the] global debt market gets a good fright…this irrational, irresponsible and illogical cheap money bull market will continue… | 1.3% | -0.7% | -3.3% | -6.3% | + |
| 4/3/07 | Equities, which have been along for the ride, are going to have to start carrying more of their own weight — and that’s not good for stock prices in general. | 0.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | -4.5% | – |
| 3/6/07 | The risk is high enough, and the reward of staying the current course low enough, that…getting cautious now is just prudent. No need to panic. …there’s still a good chance that the…sell-off will turn into a bounce and then a limited, seasonal rally running into the spring. | -1.3% | 3.2% | 10.3% | -7.3% | – |
| 2/20/07 | …it’s not time to bail out. Some pretty strong currents are still running in this market’s favor, and we’re likely to climb the famous Wall Street wall of worry to even higher highs over the next few months. | -4.2% | -1.7% | 4.3% | -7.3% | – |
| 11/7/06 | The year ahead is extremely hard for investors to read, and the balance between risk and reward is, at best, balanced. | 0.8% | 1.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | + |
| 10/6/06 | …all the ducks are lining up for a good fourth-quarter stock market rally… | 1.2% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 15.2% | + |
| 9/12/06 | In the short term, though, I think we could well see a lull — not a big pullback — in energy prices. That would be…good news for stocks. | 0.4% | 2.8% | 7.4% | 12.5% | + |
| 9/6/06 | Sometimes a market trend is so strong, and so historically reliable, that you should just go with it. That’s the case with the market’s tendency to slump from late August well into October. | 1.4% | 4.1% | 8.4% | 13.2% | – |
| 8/22/06 | …I’m not optimistic. I can find only one instance in all of its history when the Federal Reserve managed to engineer [a] soft landing… | 0.4% | 1.5% | 7.9% | 12.9% | – |
| 7/21/06 | At a minimum, this war is just one more reason for investors to sit on the sidelines this summer. | 3.1% | 4.6% | 10.1% | 19.5% | – |
| 7/4/06 | …when investors start to worry about an August rate increase again, this bounce will peter out with a July retest of the May high…treat this bounce as an opportunity to sell selectively and position your portfolio for buying at an August or September low. | -1.0% | 0.7% | 4.8% | 18.8% | – |
| 6/27/06 | …this is a bounce and not a rally…selling would give you some cash for buying at the bottom that’s still to come in August or September… | 2.6% | 1.9% | 7.0% | 22.6% | – |
| 6/13/06 | I don’t think the stock market rally is over. But there are so many uncertainties in the market that it’s not the right time to take risks to try to regain lost ground. | 1.3% | 1.5% | 6.2% | 25.1% | – |
| 5/30/06 | …use the short-term market overreaction to fear as an opportunity for building positions that will profit from those long-term trends. | 0.3% | -1.1% | 2.8% | 22.2% | + |
| 5/12/06 | The May 10 interest-rate jump will be the last one, at least until year-end. | -1.9% | -5.2% | -1.5% | 17.2% | – |
| 4/21/06 | I am projecting gradually climbing U.S. long-term interest rates even if — or maybe that’s especially if — the U.S. Federal Reserve stops raising short-term interest rates… | -0.1% | -3.8% | -4.7% | 14.0% | – |
| 2/21/06 | If tech stocks continue to show only periods of modest gains separated by steep declines, then 2006 will look like a replay of 2004 or 2005, when the Nasdaq returned 8.6% and 1.4%… …the odds of technology stocks continuing to struggle in 2006 are pretty high. | -0.2% | 1.7% | -1.2% | 13.0% | + |
| 12/16/05 | …domestic politics in the world’s most-populous nations almost guarantees that global economic growth will be stronger than expected in 2006. …that’s bad news for bullish investors who are counting on a combination of not-too-high-and-not-too-low growth… | 0.1% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 12.4% | – |
| 11/29/05 | …trends driving the current end-of-the-year rally are running out of steam. | 0.5% | -0.2% | 0.5% | 11.1% | + |
| 11/8/05 | …the market’s short-term rallies and corrections are being driven by the short-term performance needs of fast-money traders. And a majority of these traders are using the same buy and sell indicators. …A market like the current one will over-react to news — especially bad news — because everyone is trying to be sure to get out the door before everyone else. | 0.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 13.3% | – |
| 11/4/05 | Ben Bernanke will finish the inflation battle that Alan Greenspan started by raising interest rates so high that the economy starts to stall sometime next year. …shifting portfolios to include more non-U.S. equities makes sense. | 1.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 13.6% | – |
| 10/21/05 | The financial markets are already anticipating another 25-basis-point interest-rate hike. If that’s all we get, then the markets will take a deep breath and go back to the task of making money on the long side of the market. | 1.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 17.2% | + |
| 10/11/05 | If the Fed signals that it is more worried about inflation — and inclined to raise interest rates more aggressively in response — I think we could see a decline that takes the major indexes down 5% to 10%. | -0.6% | 3.0% | 8.8% | 15.3% | – |
| 9/6/05 | …the Federal Reserve will put off at least one of the two interest rate hikes that investors had been expecting in the remainder of 2005. | -0.2% | -3.0% | 2.6% | 5.3% | – |
| 9/2/05 | …Katrina’s effects will ripple out across the nation. The economic effects may be negative enough to tip the economy into a recession next year. | 1.9% | -0.3% | 3.8% | 6.2% | – |
| 8/26/05 | …the profit squeeze that will keep most stocks treading water for the rest of 2005. | 1.1% | 0.9% | 5.0% | 8.2% | – |
| 6/21/05 | The news has been so bad for Europe in the last two weeks that I think this is a good time for contrarian U.S. investors to pick up a European equity or two. | -1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | + |
| 5/20/05 | …this isn’t likely to be a very strong rally or to last all that long. | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 5.8% | + |
| 4/19/05 | …we’ve got a 3%-to-8% decline ahead of us before we can start looking for an end to this punishment and the beginning of the next temporary rally. | -0.1% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 13.7% | – |
| 3/18/05 | I’m pessimistic about the state of our economy and the long-term direction of the U.S. stock market. | -1.3% | -3.1% | 1.8% | 9.7% | – |
| 3/15/05 | …my money’s on Buffett. He’s not asking me to believe it will be different this time. Again. And he has actually put $21.4 billion of his company’s money in foreign exchange contracts that will pay off only if the dollar declines. | -2.2% | -3.0% | 0.3% | 9.1% | – |
| 3/9/05 | My best advice is don’t chance anything, take some profits and wait for a better day. | -1.6% | -2.1% | -0.8% | 6.4% | + |
| 3/2/05 | Increase your position in gold… Cut your exposure to high-multiple, high-momentum sectors and stocks… Don’t load up on big-name, large-market capitalization blue chips… Raise cash. | -0.3% | -3.1% | -1.5% | 5.6% | + |
| 11/24/04 | I’m relatively optimistic about next year…the current momentum market dominated by growth stocks and growth-wannabe stocks won’t last very far into 2005…at that point, however, that investors with a longer view of the fundamentals of the global economy will want to start buying stocks. | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 6.4% | – |
| 11/10/04 | …take some profits as your stocks hit their target prices or as we move into January, and put a portion into declining-dollar protection stocks… | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 6.2% | + |
| 10/27/04 | …investors should be buying, not selling, stocks…for a year-end rally. | 1.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.5% | + |
| 10/6/04 | The battered and bruised technology sector…is setting itself up…for a strong rally in November and December. | -2.5% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | + |
| 9/29/04 | …investors can’t really count on a favorable push from a rising market to help their stocks move upward. | 2.4% | 1.1% | 8.9% | 10.2% | – |
| 9/8/04 | I wouldn’t bet much money on an upward move anytime soon. | 0.4% | 1.3% | 6.6% | 11.2% | – |
| 8/25/04 | …now is the time to build portfolios for the long term. | 0.1% | 0.5% | 6.5% | 9.1% | + |
| 6/16/04 | I think stocks have a reasonable chance to finish about 10% higher for the year. In the even shorter term, the market seems to be setting itself up for a decent rally in July… | 0.9% | -2.8% | -0.5% | 7.4% | – |
| 5/26/04 | …this is the time to buy more shares of oil producers and refiners, rather than selling the ones you have. | 0.2% | 1.7% | -0.9% | 6.9% | + |
| 3/17/04 | We’re in the early stages of something that could be just a dip but looks like a much sharper move downward. The trouble is, there’s so much air under some of the stocks that moved up most, it’s hard to figure out where a correction might end once it builds momentum. | -2.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 5.3% | – |
| 2/11/04 | We’re looking at a year of declining earnings growth. | -0.9% | -3.2% | -5.4% | 4.2% | – |
| 12/31/03 | Without a big thing from the tech sector,…the entire stock market is likely to stall in 2004. | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 6.8% | + |
| 12/10/03 | …2004 is likely to be a transitional year. | 1.6% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 13.6% | – |
| 11/12/03 | …the interest rate picture says that stocks should continue to have the wind at their backs through the first half of 2004. The going will get much tougher, though, in the second half of the year. | -1.5% | 1.5% | 8.8% | 11.0% | + |
| 9/17/03 | …this is a good time for patient long-term investors to start, or add to, positions in [blue-chip growth stocks]… | -1.6% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 10.1% | + |
| 9/10/03 | …a recovery with weak job growth could lead to serious problems for U.S. companies and their investors in 2004. | 1.5% | 2.8% | 5.8% | 11.6% | – |
| 8/6/03 | …after an August-September drift lower, stocks will move ahead in the last quarter as the rally resumes on hopes for the fourth quarter. The world is destined for inflation, higher interest rates, slower growth and skimpier retirement and health care benefits. | 1.8% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 11.6% | + |
| 7/23/03 | …going away in July and August might not be such a bad idea… This rally is looking tired. | -0.1% | 1.5% | 5.7% | 10.7% | – |
| 7/2/03 | …the third quarter begins with a very high degree of risk — as well as with basic economic uncertainty…this isn’t the time to be taking on extra risk or hoping to make a killing. | -0.5% | -1.4% | 0.2% | 12.5% | – |
| 6/11/03 | The stock market has entered one of those “lottery ticket” periods that come at the closing stages of all big rallies… You certainly don’t want to be left holding a lottery ticket on one of these equities when the momentum reverses. | 1.3% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 13.5% | – |
| 5/21/03 | Even if you believe this rally is real and will finally put an end to the bear market of the last three years, this is no time to forget the very real risks that can lurk in individual stocks and bonds. | 2.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 18.6% | – |
| 4/16/03 | This is a market that’s at a tipping point — balanced between hope and fear. | 3.6% | 7.3% | 13.0% | 27.1% | – |
| 4/2/03 | I think we’re witnessing the timid signs of an economic recovery that is slower to get started and weaker in growth than the typical recovery. | -1.7% | 5.6% | 11.5% | 30.6% | – |
| 3/12/03 | It’s not that I’ve abandoned stocks… If I’m going to hold stocks through this period of high uncertainty and high risk, I want stocks that have the potential to pay me well for taking that risk. | 8.7% | 8.4% | 22.5% | 37.3% | + |
| 2/19/03 | The current economic malaise might not be the bust part of the normal boom-and-bust economic cycle, but something more profound and long-lasting. | -2.1% | 3.6% | 9.0% | 35.0% | – |
| 1/8/03 | Continuity rather than change is the most likely theme for the 12-month period that ends 2002 and begins 2003. | 0.9% | -8.8% | -3.5% | 23.9% | – |
| 10/30/02 | Should the long-term, buy-and-hold investor be snapping up technology stocks now? Not yet. | 3.7% | 5.1% | -5.2% | 18.9% | – |
| 10/16/02 | I think buy and hold is about to hit a strategic sweet spot… I don’t think we have to be in a rush in a stock market like this. | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 21.5% | + |
| 10/2/02 | Why Is Nothing Working? | -6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 24.9% | – |
| 9/11/02 | The golden economic boom and the soaring bull market in stocks that dominated the 1990s are over. | -4.4% | -11.6% | -1.9% | 11.6% | – |
| 9/7/02 | …it’s potential risk rather than possible reward that rules the markets. | -1.3% | -11.6% | 0.4% | 12.6% | + |
| 8/15/02 | …the probabilities say this is likely…a continuing bear market. | 3.5% | -4.2% | -5.1% | 7.8% | + |
| 7/24/02 | We are in a…crisis of confidence now… | 8.1% | 14.1% | 6.7% | 18.2% | – |
| 7/10/02 | …the pure bubble phase…ended sometime this year. The stock market is now undervalued… But…the calculations that show stocks to be undervalued can’t be trusted either. | -1.6% | -1.6% | -14.7% | 9.1% | + |
| 6/19/02 | …we won’t be returning to an era of supercharged growth… The stocks that will do well are in so many ways the exact opposite from the stocks that did well in the 10 years that led up to the bust… | -4.6% | -16.9% | -14.4% | -3.8% | – |
| 5/21/02 | …investors with a time horizon of…12 months, might look to add more low-risk growth to a portfolio by starting to build positions in…blue-chips. | -1.1% | -6.8% | -12.0% | -13.6% | – |
| 5/7/02 | This is a tough stock market for anyone to put money into, and I think we’ve got plenty of volatility ahead of us over the next six months. | 4.6% | -1.9% | -20.5% | -11.1% | + |
| 4/23/02 | Positioning your portfolio for an upturn by buying the strongest companies in the strongest sectors makes sense to me in this environment. But I certainly wouldn’t try to force anything before the market and the economy are ready. | -2.2% | -1.4% | -25.5% | -18.4% | – |
| 3/26/02 | …growth should be solidly positive for the first quarter of 2002. | -1.1% | -4.1% | -12.8% | -24.2% | – |
| 3/13/02 | At this stage of the market, I’m better trading off some potential return for some potential risk. | -0.2% | -3.7% | -12.2% | -25.2% | – |
| 2/26/02 | I’d revisit the rest of the bubble market favorites three or six months from now… | 3.3% | 3.2% | -2.3% | -24.2% | – |
| 1/29/02 | It’s time in the market cycle to bet on cyclicals again…good candidates to lead the stock market out of its current doldrums. | -1.0% | 0.6% | -3.2% | -22.3% | – |
| 1/16/02 | I don’t think that just because such an extraordinarily profitable period has just ended that we’re doomed to a period of underperformance. | 0.4% | -2.1% | -0.1% | -21.3% | – |
| 12/20/01 | In the short term…the trend is lower… But the overall feel of the market won’t be so much upward as back and forth. | 1.9% | -1.0% | 0.8% | -21.7% | – |
| 10/8/01 | After 18 months of heavy losses, it may be time to begin rebuilding a portfolio. | 2.6% | 5.3% | 9.6% | -24.3% | – |
| 9/7/01 | …in the short run, the still-high valuations of many technology stocks will keep pressure on prices. | -9.3% | 0.5% | 4.7% | -19.5% | + |
| 8/17/01 | …long-term growth investors should have a hefty chunk of financial stocks in their long-term portfolios. | 2.0% | -13.6% | -1.7% | -19.5% | – |
| 7/6/01 | …for the three months that ended last Friday, [my] portfolio was up a rather paltry 4%… I think we’ll see the emergence of a “slow-growth” stock market… | 2.1% | 0.8% | -11.2% | -24.3% | – |
| 6/22/01 | We’re still in the destructive stage of this economic cycle, but I think we’re getting close to the point — no more than six months or so — where the farsighted start to build for the future. | -0.1% | -4.4% | -17.8% | -22.6% | – |
| 6/16/01 | …after a bear market as vicious and long as this one has been, stocks don’t immediately jump back into a consistent rally mode… I don’t think the stocks will run away from me in the next few weeks… | 0.8% | -0.1% | -18.5% | -19.4% | + |
| 6/1/01 | The current low dividend yield is a clear signal to me that we haven’t put the worst excesses of the 1999-2000 stock market behind us. | 0.3% | -1.9% | -8.9% | -19.6% | + |
| 5/21/01 | …it looks as if the long bear market in the [technology] sector may be over… | -3.4% | -6.8% | -11.5% | -19.3% | – |
| 4/6/01 | In the just completed March quarter,…Jubak’s Picks declined just 21%. When you find yourself in one, the first thing to do is stop digging. I’ll leave the money from…sells in cash… | 4.5% | 11.8% | 5.5% | -0.2% | – |
| 3/23/01 | …a “Don’t Fight the Fed” strategy…could start to work as soon as late April or early May… we don’t know when the Fed will win this battle. It could be next quarter, but that seems extremely unlikely. It could be the fall, but that has lately seemed far less certain than it seemed in January. Some days it even seems that the economy could postpone its recovery until sometime in 2002. | 1.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | -1.3% | + |
| 2/16/01 | …over a holding period of 12 months or longer, current prices promise some mouth-watering gains. But in the short run, many of these stocks are still locked into painful declines. | -2.6% | -12.2% | -1.0% | -14.7% | 0 |
| 1/12/01 | I am going to hold off on any new technology buys… | 1.8% | 0.0% | -10.2% | -14.4% | + |
| 1/5/01 | …the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at least once and probably twice more this year. That makes investing in interest-rate-sensitive stocks an attempt to profit from a clearly defined trend… Later this year, for example, I think the easy-money buys are likely to be in the technology sector… | 1.6% | 4.2% | -11.3% | -11.7% | – |
