As suggested by a reader, we expand here an evaluation of overall stock market forecasts from the commentaries of Carl Futia, available since April 2005. The main tools that Carl Futia uses to analyze financial markets are the theory of contrary opinion, his box theory and the work of George Lindsay on ‘repeating time intervals’. Patterns are the common theme uniting his interests in mathematics, markets and economics. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Carl Futia issues very frequent forecast updates. To suppress forecast interval overlap, we use only the last explicit forecast for the S&P 500 for each month. We include also his annual forecasts for 2005-2009. He tends to use sentiment and box theory for short-term forecasting and cycle intervals for long-term forecasting.
- His forecasts are highly quantitative in terms of S&P 500 levels (usually futures, which tend to be higher than the index itself), but he is often vague with respect to timing. He takes intraday movements into account. We make judgments accordingly.
- Carl Futia’s forecast sample size is modest, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Carl Futia via His Blog | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 12/31/12 | I think Friday’s weak close has bearish implications. The market is probably headed below 1340. | 2.2% | 5.0% | 10.1% | 28.4% | – |
| 11/30/12 | A move to 1468 and higher is underway. | 0.1% | 3.3% | 7.7% | 26.6% | + |
| 10/31/12 | …the ES is on the way to 1300 or so. | -1.2% | 0.3% | 6.1% | 25.2% | – |
| 9/28/12 | …headed much higher over the next few months. | 1.4% | -2.0% | -1.0% | 17.3% | – |
| 8/31/12 | Over the next month or two the market should move above 1450. | 1.6% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 18.8% | + |
| 7/31/12 | The ES is headed for the 1405-1420 range. | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 23.1% | + |
| 6/29/12 | I think the drop from 1357 ended at 1302.50 on June 25. A move to new bull market highs is underway. | -0.7% | 1.3% | 6.2% | 20.4% | + |
| 5/31/12 | …bearish sentiment is telling us that a big rally is imminent and will probably take the averages to new bull market highs. | 0.4% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 23.8% | + |
| 4/30/12 | …the market is headed for 1475 and higher over the coming weeks. | -2.0% | -6.1% | -0.9% | 15.7% | – |
| 3/30/12 | …the drop from 1419 is over and that the next development will be a rally to the May 2008 top at 1442. | -0.2% | -0.2% | -5.6% | 11.0% | – |
| 2/29/12 | … it is likely that the market’s advance will pause near these resistance levels. A drop of 50-70 points is likely. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months. | -1.0% | 2.8% | -2.4% | 12.9% | 0 |
| 1/31/12 | …a move to 1330 and higher is underway. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370. | 2.6% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 15.2% | + |
| 12/30/11 | …looks like the drop from 1264 ended at 1243 and that the ES is on its way to 1284. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370. | 1.8% | 5.3% | 12.0% | 16.2% | + |
| 11/29/11 | The weekly bar trend is downward. The minimum downside target is 1130. There is a good chance that the October 4 low will be broken also. | 5.3% | 5.7% | 14.3% | 17.7% | – |
| 10/31/11 | …the October 4 low will hold for the foreseeable future and the market is headed above its May 2011 top. | 0.6% | -0.5% | 4.7% | 13.1% | + |
| 9/30/11 | …headed below its August low. [1119] | 2.1% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 28.2% | + |
| 8/31/11 | I think the market is headed for 1220-1240. Once this target zone is reached the bear market is likely to resume. | -2.7% | -7.2% | -1.9% | 15.3% | + |
| 7/29/11 | …likely to establish a low today and then begin a sustained rally. I expect to see the market above 1400 during the coming months. | -7.2% | -6.4% | -3.9% | 6.4% | – |
| 6/30/11 | A sustained swing up to above the 1400 level is underway. | 1.8% | -2.6% | -12.8% | 4.0% | – |
| 5/31/11 | …a sustained up swing to 1400 and above is underway. | -4.5% | -2.8% | -12.5% | -5.0% | – |
| 4/29/11 | The [S&P 500 E-mini futures level] is headed for 1400 and above. | -1.7% | -1.4% | -4.6% | 2.8% | – |
| 3/31/11 | The market is now headed for 1400 and above. | 0.6% | 2.7% | -1.4% | 6.6% | – |
| 2/28/11 | …the market is about to drop into the 1225-50 zone over the next few weeks. But once this reaction is complete I expect to see new highs for the bull market. | -1.3% | -0.6% | -0.1% | 3.5% | + |
| 1/31/11 | …the market will soon be heading for 1300 or above. …by the end of April this market will have traded at 1350. | 2.6% | 1.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% | + |
| 12/31/10 | …a top building process is underway and will be followed by a drop of 50-75 points. Once it is complete the market will resume its advance to 1300. | 1.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0 |
| 11/30/10 | I think this down leg will carry to 1152 or so. Once the drop is complete the march to 1300 will resume. | 3.7% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 5.4% | 0 |
| 10/29/10 | …the ES has started a breakout move that will carry it above the April top at 1216 over the next two or three weeks. | 3.6% | -0.2% | 7.9% | 3.0% | + |
| 9/30/10 | Next upside target is 1175 [on the way to a] move above 1216 over the coming months. | 1.5% | 3.7% | 10.4% | -3.7% | + |
| 8/31/10 | I now think the market is headed for 1010-15. | 4.7% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 14.8% | – |
| 7/30/10 | The market will resume its move to 1145-50 today or Monday. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5. | 1.8% | -4.8% | 7.3% | 13.8% | + |
| 6/30/10 | I expect a rally of 25-35 points from yesterday’s low at 1030.25. After that a further drop to 1010 or so is likely. | 3.8% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 30.0% | 0 |
| 5/28/10 | …the low at 1036.75 ended the drop from 1216. The market has broken above the 1089 high of its recent trading range and this means that a move to 1300 is underway. | -3.6% | -4.4% | -3.9% | 20.7% | – |
| 4/30/10 | …the overnight high at 1208 will end in the 1185-90 zone later today or early on Monday. From that higher low I think the market will resume its move to 1270. | -6.4% | -9.8% | -7.2% | 14.3% | – |
| 3/31/10 | …a strong move upward will begin soon. The ES should reach 1200 in April on its way to 1225 or so. | 1.5% | 1.5% | -11.0% | 13.9% | + |
| 2/26/10 | … the market is headed higher. The 1130 level is the short term target and I expect the market to reach 1200 over the next three months. | 3.1% | 6.2% | -3.3% | 18.3% | + |
| 1/29/10 | …I am expecting the correction to end today or Monday. I also expect to see the ES trade up above 1200 during the next couple of months. | -0.7% | 4.1% | 12.4% | 21.8% | + |
| 12/31/09 | …still in a 1105-1130 trading range and will visit the low end of this range before it moves substantially higher. I also expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month or so. | 2.7% | -1.1% | 5.6% | 13.9% | – |
| 11/30/09 | …the market is headed up from here. The 1130-40 range should be reached by mid-December. | 0.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 11.5% | 0 |
| 10/30/09 | …I am guessing that the e-minis will drop further to 1025 or so before turning around…. By itself this is not enough to force me off of my “up to 1120” scenario for the next few weeks. …I still think this break is a good buying opportunity… | 3.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 15.6% | + |
| 9/30/09 | …a move to 1120 is underway. | 0.0% | 0.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | + |
| 8/31/09 | A move to 1054 is underway. The e-minis will reach the 1120 level by the end of October. | 0.5% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 0 |
| 7/31/09 | …the rally will carry the e-minis well over the 1000 level over the next few months. | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 14.2% | + |
| 6/30/09 | The e-minis are on the way into the 965-80 zone. | -4.3% | 7.3% | 15.6% | 11.2% | + |
| 5/29/09 | The e-minis are on their way into the 950-80 zone. | 2.3% | 0.9% | 11.9% | 19.5% | + |
| 4/30/09 | I am estimating that today’s daytime range will be 875-895. There is pretty strong resistance in the 890-900 range and I think the market will drop from there to support in the 840-60 range before it begins a move to 940. | 4.0% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 34.5% | – |
| 3/30/09 | The upside target for the next week or so is 875. | 6.1% | 10.9% | 16.7% | 49.6% | + |
| 2/27/09 | …a rally to at least the 748 level will develop during the day. I still think this market is about to begin the biggest rally seen in the last 9 months. | -7.0% | 7.1% | 23.4% | 52.2% | + |
| 1/30/09 | I think this test will be successful and that the market will rally from here. | 5.2% | -15.7% | 5.7% | 32.9% | + |
| 1/3/09 | The November 21 low marked the end of the 2007-08 bear market. A bull market advance is underway and will probably end at a top below the 2007 high sometime in 2010. | -6.2% | -10.3% | -9.2% | 23.1% | – |
| 12/31/08 | …the market is headed for its next upside target at 945. …I still think that that the 1000 level will be reached next month. | 0.7% | -8.6% | -10.2% | 25.8% | 0 |
| 11/28/08 | …a rally to 1000 is underway. | -2.3% | -0.6% | -21.8% | 23.8% | – |
| 10/31/08 | The S&P’s are headed into the 1050-1100 range. | -3.9% | -12.4% | -14.8% | 8.0% | – |
| 9/30/08 | …yesterday’s low either ended this drop or is very near the final low point. The market…has established a trading range between 1112 and 1166 and I think it will move out of this range on the upside today or tomorrow. | -14.6% | -20.3% | -25.5% | -12.1% | – |
| 8/29/08 | …the market is headed down to 1250…I expect a big rally to start from 1250. It should carry the market first to 1340 and eventually to 1500 and above. | -1.2% | -9.5% | -30.8% | -22.5% | – |
| 7/31/08 | …the e-minis are now on the way to 1325. …I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. | -0.1% | 1.2% | -25.8% | -20.7% | – |
| 6/30/08 | The market…is in the process of making a low above the March 1253 low. …we soon should see a rally at least to 1305 and more probably to 1320 or so. …I still think that the next big move will be upward to 1500. | -0.5% | 0.3% | -5.2% | -30.0% | – |
| 5/30/08 | The market moved a little past 1400 resistance yesterday but not enough to shake my belief that it is headed for 1360 or even a little lower before it starts a leg up to 1500. | -2.8% | -8.6% | -8.5% | -33.5% | – |
| 4/30/08 | …this market will soon hit 1410 and will probably continue up to 1430 over the next week. | -0.8% | -0.6% | -10.4% | -35.6% | 0 |
| 3/31/08 | …the next development will be a rally from current levels to 1390 or so. The market should rally into the 1430-50 range over the next couple of months. | 3.8% | 4.8% | -3.0% | -38.7% | + |
| 2/29/08 | …this reaction will halt around 1345. From there the e-minis should resume their move into the 1430-50 range. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold. | -2.8% | 3.0% | 5.1% | -46.4% | – |
| 1/31/08 | …there is a good chance that the e-minis will make another low in the 1315-1325 zone before heading up into the 1400-20 zone. I think the market will take only 3 or 4 months to move above the 1600 level. | -3.0% | -3.4% | 2.2% | -39.2% | – |
| 1/14/08 | The first half of 2008 will prove to be a very bullish period and that the second half of the year will be flat or bearish. | -7.5% | -3.5% | -6.2% | -40.4% | 0 |
| 12/31/07 | …the next significant move from here will be upward to the next short term target at 1550. I think we shall see the futures trace above the 1600 level during the first quarter of 2008. | -5.3% | -6.1% | -6.7% | -36.5% | – |
| 11/28/07 | …the S&P 500 is on its way to new bull market highs. The top of the next box is near 1700 and I think the market can reach that level during the next 3 or four months. | 1.1% | 0.6% | -6.9% | -44.4% | – |
| 10/31/07 | …the implication of this action are bullish if we look ahead more than a week, but… the market is due for a 25 point break and…the 1564 level is likely to be resistance and the starting point of the decline. So the next trade I make will probably be on the short side. | -4.8% | -4.4% | -11.0% | -37.6% | + |
| 9/18/07 | I remain very bullish on the market’s prospects for the rest of the year and expect to see new bull market highs by a substantial margin during the next three months. | -0.2% | 1.4% | -3.4% | -17.4% | – |
| 8/28/07 | …the market is on its way lower, to 1400 in the S&P’s and 140 in the Spiders. …Once the next rally begins I expect that it will carry these markets to new bull market highs. | 2.8% | 6.9% | -1.8% | -10.4% | – |
| 7/31/07 | …the 1450 level in the S&P and the 144.20 level in the Spiders will prove to be support…markets should then rally substantially, the S&P’s to 1500, the Spiders to 149.50… After this rally…the market will take another tumble, this time to 1435 in the S&P’s, 143.00 in the Spiders… At those levels a very important low is likely to develop and I expect the market to rally from there to new bull market highs. | 1.5% | 0.6% | 5.5% | -13.4% | 0 |
| 6/27/07 | …we are about to witness the start of a multi-week rally which will carry these markets to new bull market highs. | 1.3% | -3.1% | 0.7% | -15.0% | + |
| 5/31/07 | …they will reach the 1543 level (154.30 in the Spiders) and then drop to 1519 or so. After that another rally to new bull market highs should begin. | -2.6% | -1.8% | -6.4% | -10.0% | – |
| 4/16/07 | The futures and the Spiders have each reached what I think will be short term resistance. A reaction in the futures down to 1462 and in the Spiders down to 145.30 would be normal at this juncture. I still think this bull market has further to go. The futures should trade around 1520, the Spiders around 152…before any substantial drop begins. | 0.8% | 2.2% | 5.7% | -7.0% | 0 |
| 3/29/07 | I expect the Spiders to drop to 140.60, the S&P’s to 1416 and the Q’s to 42.80. After the low I think these markets will begin a move that will carry them to new highs for the bull market. | 1.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | -3.9% | – |
| 2/27/07 | …the next development will be a rally to the 142.50 level. Following that rally I think we shall see another break to 1390 or a bit lower, but that should be it. Once the smoke clears I shall be looking for a move to new bull market highs. | -0.3% | 1.3% | 8.3% | -4.9% | – |
| 1/31/07 | …these markets are headed for the near term upside targets I have indicated on the charts [145 and 1455]. | 0.8% | -3.6% | 3.3% | -4.0% | + |
| 1/8/07 | The first quarter of 2007 is likely to be bullish, the second quarter basically flat or slightly bearish, and the second half of the year bearish. The high in…the S&P 500 near 1500. The low in the second half should find…the S&P near 1200. The second half low will prove to be a very important buying opportunity. A renewed bullish trend should subsequently carry the market upward during 2008 and 2009. | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% | – |
| 12/27/06 | …the S&P futures are now headed up to 1455 and the Spiders to 144.40. | -1.2% | 0.1% | -0.3% | 1.4% | + |
| 11/30/06 | …the bulls are about to take control of this market and…a breakout above the last high at 1411.25 is imminent. | 0.5% | 1.1% | -1.9% | 6.0% | + |
| 10/31/06 | …this rally won’t go past 1385-86 before the market resumes [its] drop to 1369. | 0.4% | 1.6% | 4.9% | 9.0% | + |
| 9/28/06 | …it is about to breakout of the past two day’s trading range on the upside. We should see a quick move to 1360 from which point I think a 20-30 point break will begin. | 1.1% | 2.9% | 6.6% | 15.0% | 0 |
| 8/30/06 | …the market will drop from 1315 to 1291 or so. After the correction…a renewed rally which will continue to new bull market highs above the 1330 level. | -0.8% | 2.4% | 6.3% | 12.9% | + |
| 7/28/06 | …this upmove is only the initial stage of a move to 1350 and above which should develop over the next 3-4 months. | 0.1% | 1.8% | 8.1% | 15.1% | + |
| 6/29/06 | …the market is in the early stage of an advance from the June 14 low of 1229 which will take it to 1350 this summer. | -0.6% | 0.3% | 5.0% | 19.8% | + |
| 5/31/06 | My short term downside target remains 1250. After that level is reached I think a move to 1295 will begin and be the final phase of the rally from last week’s 1246 low. | -1.1% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 20.5% | – |
| 4/27/06 | …this morning’s low at 1300.25 will hold and…the market is on its way to 1350. | 0.2% | -2.3% | -3.2% | 14.2% | – |
| 3/31/06 | …the market has ended its drop from yesterday’s high at 1319 and is now about to rally to 1328. | 0.0% | 1.4% | -1.7% | 11.5% | – |
| 2/28/06 | …we are about to see a rally to a lower top around 1288 and then a second break down to 1273 or so. I remain confident that the market will reach the 1350 level by the end of April. | -0.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 7.3% | + |
| 1/31/06 | …it is headed back up from here and will soon reach the 1320 level. | -2.0% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 13.0% | – |
| 12/29/05 | …the S&P’s are headed for…1246. …the market will make a low early in January and rally for the rest of that month. | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 13.1% | – |
| 12/23/05 | The trend in the US stock market averages should be upward during the first 3 months of 2006 and then downward for the following 7 or 8 months. At the 2006 high point the…S&P 500 index will reach the 1350 level. The drop from the 2006 high point should be relatively brief and shallow. It will probably last 8 months or so and carry the averages down 20 to 25% from their 2006 highs. | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 12.3% | – |
| 11/30/05 | …we should soon see the S&P futures near…1246. My best guess is that the market will stop a point or two above that level. | 0.6% | -0.1% | 3.2% | 12.8% | + |
| 10/28/05 | …the next stop will be 1223. I believe the market is in the early stage of a move which will carry to 1350 over the next few months. | 1.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 14.1% | + |
| 9/30/05 | …the market will shortly reach the 1246 level and after a brief period of hesitation move into the 1268-1271 zone… | -2.7% | -1.8% | 2.1% | 9.9% | – |
| 8/29/05 | …the market has begun an uptrend which will carry it to…around 1268, and eventually much higher than that. | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.6% | 7.6% | – |
| 7/25/05 | …the market will have to revisit the 1227 level before it will be able to break above 1246. Once this happens the next stop on the upside will be 1257. | 0.5% | -0.9% | -4.2% | 2.8% | – |
| 6/29/05 | …S&P futures are about to turn upwards and run up to the 1245… | -0.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 6.7% | + |
| 5/24/05 | …the big risk here is missing the upmove so I think one must presume that the market is now headed for…1212. | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 7.2% | – |
| 5/12/05 | …expect either a top very near…September- October 2005…or alternately…a top in July followed by a sideways trading range that terminate in January 2006. In either case 2006 should be a bearish year. | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 11.4% | – |
| 4/28/05 | This is a very low risk buying opportunity in light of the very bearish market sentiment I think I am seeing. | 2.6% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 14.9% | + |
