As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here Gary Savage’s outlooks for the U.S. stock market since May 2007 as extracted from his current Smart Money Tracker blog (since March 2010) and its predecessor site. While Gary Savage states that his “main goal…for the next few years will be to keep investors focused on riding the secular gold bull,” he also promises to “monitor cycles, money flows and sentiment in the stock market.” However, he does “strenuously suggest that you don’t waste your time or capital trying to trade the stock market.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- As noted above, Gary Savage emphasizes gold, but he frequently offers outlooks for stocks, commodities, the dollar and Treasuries. For comparability with other guru reviews, we focus on his forecasts for the overall U.S. stock market.
- He relies largely on cycles, money flows, sentiment measures and technical rules (including Dow Theory) to develop outlooks. He occasionally cites fundamental value drivers or disruptors.
- Older commentaries frequently cite Commitments of Traders reports (for futures contracts) as important indicators, but he abandons them during the sample period. His earliest commentaries tend to be more tutorial than forward-looking.
- He sometimes repeats outlooks in consecutive daily commentaries. We select the most specific (or earliest if equally specific) of such duplicative forecasts for grading.
- Gary Savage’s forecast sample size is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
In a 10/13/11 email, Gary Savage stated: “I’ve been over this before with traders [who] tend to trade my expectations (the free blog). Ie. If I think gold is due to move down into a cycle low they will sell gold short. Well no experienced trader would ever short a bull market. So in the model portfolio you will never see a short even if I expect gold to decline. The same applies for the stock market. I may expect a move down or up based on where we are at in the cyclical timing band but that doesn’t mean I would recommend one make a counter trend trade. My real record based on real trading results is much better than 99% of all the hedge funds in the world. …real trading results based on premium subscriber content are much higher than 46%.”
Gary Savage offered access to his proprietary trading record. Per the review policy described at Guru Grades, we review only track records that experts are willing to make public, so that readers can freely check assumptions and calculations for themselves.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments re: Gary Savage via smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 12/21/12 | The correction today is nothing more than a short-term breather before the market makes a final push to test the all-time highs, probably by the first week in January. I’m guessing we will get some kind of stopgap measure, or extension of the deadline next week that will trigger another explosive move up to test those September highs. At that point the market will…drift down into a daily cycle low around the middle of January. Once a deal is struck the daily cycle correction will end and the market should explode to new highs, maybe big new highs by the state of the Union address on January 29. | -0.3% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 28.8% | + |
| 12/14/12 | We can now expect stocks to take a breather as a minor profit-taking event unfolds and the stock market moves down…somewhere between 1400-1410 followed by a move up to test the all-time highs, probably by the end of the year… But if Congress manages to drag this into the new year, then I think we can expect fiscal cliff resolution and at least a marginal break of the September highs before the state of the union address on January 29. | 1.2% | 4.2% | 9.8% | 28.1% | + |
| 12/2/12 | …we will see a strong acceleration and a significant and sustained breakout above the September high of 1475. …I believe QE3 will drive the market high enough to test or marginally break the all-time highs. | 0.6% | 3.5% | 9.2% | 26.6% | + |
| 11/24/12 | …I think the market will easily make new highs in the next two or three months… That being said stocks…are now due for a short-term breather. | 0.2% | 1.0% | 6.4% | 28.5% | + |
| 11/19/12 | Today should be the opportunity to get on board what is likely to be a significant rally over the next 3 weeks and probably a move to new highs over the next 2-3 months. | 0.9% | 3.5% | 9.0% | 29.5% | + |
| 11/14/12 | …the dollar is due for a move down into a yearly cycle low around mid February or early March. Roughly the same time as last year. This will drive the next intermediate rally in gold (and stocks) for about the next 12-15 weeks. …Buying anywhere around these levels will deliver big gains over the next 3-4 months. Probably largest in the miners, but certainly significant in virtually all sectors. | 2.6% | 4.3% | 12.2% | 32.2% | + |
| 10/23/12 | Asset markets should now be in the final 3-5 days of this intermediate degree profit-taking event. …Considering that the stock market is right in the timing band for its cycle bottom we could see a bottom any day now. | 1.0% | -0.5% | 6.4% | 25.4% | – |
| 10/10/12 | Once this corrective move has run its course I expect we will see stocks rally, probably back to new highs. …the most likely scenario is that stocks will rally just enough to break the all-time highs, either later this winter, or sometime next spring. | 2.0% | -3.7% | 2.8% | 20.2% | + |
| 9/28/12 | …we may be on the cusp of an intermediate degree rally in the dollar, which would probably trigger an intermediate degree correction in stocks… | 1.4% | -2.0% | -1.0% | 17.3% | + |
| 9/27/12 | …stocks have clearly received the signal and are ready for the next leg up… | 1.0% | -2.4% | -3.1% | 16.0% | + |
| 9/15/12 | …there’s probably a pretty good chance we are going to see the S&P at new all time highs in the next 6 months – 12 months. | -0.3% | -0.4% | -2.1% | 16.5% | + |
| 8/20/12 | My current guess is that we will see the stock market start to stagnate in 2013 forming a very extended rounded topping pattern. By late 2013 the stock market should be clearly in a new bear market… | -0.5% | 3.0% | -2.2% | 16.8% | – |
| 8/11/12 | …we should trigger a top in the stock market sometime around the end of August. …I expect we will see most of September chopping back-and-forth with several retests of the highs before finally rolling over. | 1.0% | 2.3% | -1.7% | 17.2% | – |
| 8/4/12 | 3 weeks, that’s how long the bulls have left before stocks roll over and begin the next intermediate degree decline. That being said the next 2-3 weeks we should see some very healthy gains in virtually all asset classes. | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 21.2% | – |
| 6/18/12 | I expect stocks will continue to grind higher this year and start to stagnate next year as commodity prices began to pressure profit margins. By early 2013 the stock market should begin rolling over into what I expect will be a very drawn out, and volatile bear market… | -2.3% | 2.1% | 9.0% | 17.0% | – |
| 6/2/12 | …we should expect a bottom very soon (probably early next week). The fact that this intermediate cycle has stretched extremely long raises the odds massively that the next daily cycle bottom is also going to be an intermediate and yearly cycle bottom. Once we have printed the intermediate low we should see stocks rally back to at least test the highs. | 2.4% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 28.5% | + |
| 5/17/12 | …we should see the stock market put in its yearly cycle low sometime in the next several days. …continued currency debasement will probably drive the stock market to at least marginal new highs… After a long topping process the stock market…will probably roll over…into that 2014 bottom. | 1.2% | 3.1% | 7.7% | 26.5% | + |
| 4/7/12 | My best guess is that we will see a sharp sell off over the next 2 to 3 weeks, followed by a sharp rebound… | -0.9% | -1.3% | -2.0% | 12.3% | – |
| 4/3/12 | When this runaway move comes to an end I’m pretty sure it will signal the beginning of the end for this cyclical bull market. That doesn’t mean that we won’t see a test or even a marginal break to new highs but I think we are clearly in the final phase of this liquidity driven rally that began in March of 2009. | -3.2% | -1.5% | -3.4% | 12.3% | – |
| 3/24/12 | In this scenario [I’m expecting] I would expect the stock market to roll over soon and begin moving down into an intermediate cycle low in late April or early May. | 0.2% | -1.8% | -5.8% | 10.9% | – |
| 3/6/12 | …it appears that the stock market is ready to deliver the much anticipated profit-taking event. | 3.9% | 4.1% | -4.9% | 15.6% | – |
| 3/1/12 | …it’s just not safe to play the long side any further. | -0.6% | 2.5% | -4.4% | 12.4% | – |
| 2/5/12 | Now is the time for investors to be taking profits. …I mean moving to cash. | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 12.8% | – |
| 1/16/12 | The stock market is now in the timing band for a move down into a daily cycle low. …On top of that we have a larger intermediate degree cycle that should bottom sometime in March/April. …we should see a pretty hefty sell off in the next week or two. | 1.6% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 15.4% | – |
| 1/6/12 | Right now patience is the name of the game until the stock market has formed a daily cycle low which is due sometime in the middle of January. Cash or a modest position in the dollar index is safest bet for the next couple of weeks. | 0.9% | 5.4% | 9.4% | 15.2% | – |
| 11/24/11 | …I expect we will find a bottom sometime in the next 1-4 days followed by a Santa Claus rally into the middle of December. …the market will almost certainly begin to roll over before making higher highs and by the next intermediate degree bottom in February/March we will see the October lows broken, and the summer 2010 lows tested. …From this point on investors should keep 401(k) accounts solely in money market funds until we reach the bottom sometime in the fall of 2012. | 7.4% | 9.2% | 18.0% | 22.2% | – |
| 11/18/11 | …the market is now in the timing band for some serious selling. …The safest position at this time is to be in cash… | -1.9% | 2.1% | 12.1% | 15.7% | + |
| 10/4/11 | The market should now make another attempt at a respectable bear market rally. I would think a very minimum would be a return to the 75 week moving average [over 1200]… I think we probably just saw a major turning point today. One that should mark a bottom for at least a couple of months. | 6.4% | 10.1% | 13.6% | 30.0% | + |
| 10/1/11 | …I expect next year to be one of the worst years in human history, at least economically speaking. Certainly on par with 1932 if not worse. This should drive one of the worst stock bear markets in history. …this leg down will erase all of the gains during the bubble years from 1995-2000. | 8.7% | 10.8% | 14.4% | 32.9% | – |
| 9/21/11 | The stock market [is] now moving into the timing band for the next daily cycle low (selling event)…that is due to bottom sometime in the next 11 days. | -1.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 24.9% | + |
| 8/29/11 | My best guess is the market will rally…then dip slightly into the next daily cycle low around the end of September. That should be followed by an extreme left translated daily cycle that tops…at about 1300…and then moves down into the next intermediate bottom due in late November or very early December. | -3.7% | -4.9% | -4.2% | 15.7% | 0 |
| 8/22/11 | Stocks…, after what should be a very convincing bear market rally, will roll over and continue down into a final four year cycle low, probably in the late summer or early fall of 2012. | 7.7% | 3.8% | 8.2% | 24.8% | – |
| 8/13/11 | …it’s time for liquidity to drain out of gold and flow back into a severely beaten up stock marke…before resuming the cyclical (and secular) bear trend. | -6.7% | -1.3% | 2.9% | 17.5% | 0 |
| 8/5/11 | We should now see a violent…bear market rally. On average the S&P will rally about 90 to 110 points in the first 8 to 15 days out of an intermediate cycle bottom. Bear market rallies are much more violent.This one could be exceptionally so… | -1.7% | -2.8% | 3.2% | 16.9% | – |
| 8/3/11 | My best guess is that the reversal today will probably trigger a weak bounce up to the 200 day moving average, followed by one more leg down. That should mark a more lasting bottom and trigger a 6 to 8 week bear market rally. | -11.1% | -4.4% | -0.6% | 10.6% | 0 |
| 7/24/11 | …we are now due for that final explosive move…we can look for the Dow to drop down around 10,000…in late October or November this year. …We should then see a relief rally in stocks… The relief rally in stocks unfortunately will be short-lived. | -3.8% | -13.1% | -9.1% | 1.7% | 0 |
| 6/30/11 | …this is probably not over yet. If the daily cycle runs a normal duration then we should look for a final bottom somewhere around July 22. …It’s possible that this daily cycle could stretch just a bit long… | 1.8% | -2.6% | -12.8% | 4.0% | – |
| 6/22/11 | …this correction isn’t finished. …Once the counter trend rally runs its course the market should have another leg down bottoming in late July to mid August. | 1.6% | 4.5% | -6.6% | 2.1% | + |
| 6/16/11 | This is the beginnings of the next leg down in the secular bear market and…this time it’s going to be much much worse than it was in `08. …We should soon test the 1249 intermediate cycle low. …we will see a violent counter trend rally once the March low is penetrated. …once the counter trend rally has run it’s course we should have another leg down. And that leg down will almost certainly cause tremendous damage to the global stock markets…bottoming around the middle of August. This is when I expect Bernanke to freak out and initiate QE3. I have no doubt the market will rally violently…and maybe even penetrate the 200 day moving average during the fall rally. …However this too will only be a counter trend affair. | 1.3% | 3.0% | -6.2% | 7.1% | 0 |
| 6/2/11 | If 1311 gets violated we can kiss the cyclical bull goodbye. [Violated 6/3.] | -1.8% | 2.0% | -7.6% | -2.1% | – |
| 5/24/11 | My guess is we will get some news out of Europe that they have successfully kicked the can down the road for a few more months and the market will take off. | -0.1% | -2.5% | -14.6% | 0.1% | – |
| 4/8/11 | …by the end of next week we will see the market start to reverse. Stocks should then enter a powerful uptrend for another 5-7 weeks. | -0.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 4.5% | 0 |
| 3/13/11 | …it’s now time to get out of general stock funds and move IRA’s to a money market fund until the next four year cycle low is reached (probably in late 2012). | 0.2% | 1.4% | -2.0% | 8.2% | – |
| 2/23/11 | …the brief party created by Bernanke’s printing press is about to come to an end. | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 4.6% | – |
| 2/6/11 | I now look for the next intermediate bottom to arrive this summer sometime around July (roughly 12 months after the 2010 bottom). …This should mark the beginning of the next leg down in the secular bear market. | 1.0% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | – |
| 1/29/11 | QE2 has now driven the market even further above the mean than in April. …we should soon see an extreme regression to the mean event. …the Fed has put into place the conditions that will bring about the end of this cyclical bull market and usher in the next leg down in the secular bear. | 2.6% | 1.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% | – |
| 1/15/11 | At some point it is going to dawn on the market that there may be a serious problem developing. I expect that recognition to come as the market starts to drop down into the next intermediate cycle correction (which I expect to begin next week). If so, then what should start out as just a profit taking correction will turn into a much more serious decline, possibly even erasing all of the fall rally. | -0.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | – |
| 1/9/11 | Sometime between early February and early April the market should drop down into a major yearly cycle low. …we should see an intermediate top fairly soon. …if one has retirement funds still invested in the stock market they get them out and back into a money market at this time… | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.0% | – |
| 12/25/10 | …next year the stock market will begin the third leg down in the secular bear market. | 1.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | -0.6% | – |
| 12/15/10 | …the next four year cycle low is due sometime in 2012. …We will almost certainly dip below the `09 lows at the next 4 year cycle low… | 1.9% | 4.7% | 1.8% | -1.3% | – |
| 12/10/10 | Now is not the time to press the long side… | 0.3% | 2.7% | 5.1% | -1.2% | – |
| 11/19/10 | Yesterday’s rally…should mark the bottom of the daily cycle. I’m still expecting the new daily cycle to move back to new highs before topping in mid to late December and rolling over into a more substantial intermediate degree correction in January. | -1.0% | 4.6% | 11.9% | -1.0% | 0 |
| 10/28/10 | …we will likely see a correction soon… | 3.1% | 0.3% | 9.8% | 5.9% | – |
| 10/16/10 | …I’m expecting the market to begin working it’s way down into a daily cycle trough possibly bottoming on the third quarter GDP report Oct. 29th. Any one still holding long positions might want to consider taking profits here… Once we get past the correction into the now due daily cycle low traders can probably re-enter long positions for a run at the April highs. | 0.1% | -0.5% | 9.2% | 2.1% | – |
| 10/8/10 | I have complete confidence the stock market will indeed move down into a cycle low. | 0.9% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 2.6% | – |
| 9/19/10 | …we should expect a short term top any day now. However I expect the pullback will just serve to dampen sentiment a bit so the next push higher can begin. If I had to guess I would say the market will likely find support at 1100. | 0.0% | 2.0% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 0 |
| 9/2/10 | …I expect we will probably test and at least marginally break to new highs… | 1.8% | 4.3% | 10.6% | 6.9% | + |
| 8/24/10 | …beware of an impending cycle bottom. | -0.2% | 6.9% | 14.1% | 10.2% | + |
| 8/11/10 | …it is unlikely the intermediate rally is finished. | 0.4% | 1.8% | 12.3% | 8.2% | + |
| 7/11/10 | Actually I won’t be at all surprised if the market rallies back to new highs… | -0.7% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 22.2% | + |
| 7/3/10 | There is a good chance this correction (bull market) or leg down (bear market) has reached exhaustion. | 6.5% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 31.6% | + |
| 6/29/10 | …this is the lowest risk entry on the long side. | 1.8% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 26.8% | + |
| 6/3/10 | …we should now be on the verge of one more explosive move higher before this cyclical bull expires and heads back down into the next leg of the secular bear. | -1.4% | -7.3% | -4.9% | 16.6% | – |
| 5/24/10 | …as of this moment there’s no sense in doubling down on the short side into these kind of oversold levels. Even if the market is rolling over again we should see a bounce. A safer strategy would be to sell into the rally. | -0.3% | 1.7% | -0.2% | 23.0% | + |
| 5/4/10 | …I don’t think the recent selloff is going to be an intermediate type decline like we saw in January and February…with the next intermediate term decline coming around the end of summer. | -1.5% | -6.0% | -4.1% | 13.8% | 0 |
| 4/20/10 | I don’t actually expect the move to continue at the same pace as the last two months but it is showing all the signs of an impending runaway rally. | -1.9% | -7.6% | -11.3% | 10.2% | – |
| 4/12/10 | …we have by passed the middle years…of a normal bull market and have now entered the final stages of this cyclical bull. …I’m expecting some kind of mini-crash (4-6%) at some point during earnings season. Once that correction has run its course…we will really see asset prices explode higher. …I wouldn’t be surprised if the last leg gains another 300+ points before the whole house of cards comes crashing back down. | 0.1% | -3.4% | -9.9% | 9.8% | + |
| 3/28/10 | Everything continues to point to an impending correction. …once we enter the correction…we want to be buyers of that dip. | 1.4% | 1.5% | -8.2% | 13.2% | + |
| 3/19/10 | Starting sometime next week the market should begin a minor profit taking correction… | 0.6% | 4.1% | -3.8% | 11.5% | – |
| 2/17/10 | The 1450 target is just a guess, but…we should have at least one more leg up before this bull expires…into the third phase of the secular bear market. | 0.5% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 21.9% | 0 |
| 2/5/10 | …the odds are against this correction signaling the beginning of a new bear, we can probably expect the rally out of this bottom to take the market to new highs. | 0.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 24.2% | + |
| 1/26/10 | …the whole correction should run it’s course quickly. My guess is that this should be over within a week or less. …the market should correct to at least the 1035 level before the third leg begins. | 1.0% | 1.0% | 11.0% | 19.0% | – |
| 1/21/10 | …I won’t be surprised if we bottom quickly and then move back up to higher highs before beginning the real correction. I expect that isn’t going to arrive until at least March and maybe even as late as May. | -2.9% | -0.8% | 8.0% | 15.6% | + |
| 1/10/10 | …we are at the beginning of what I expect will be a colossal inflationary storm during the first half of this year. And that is the catalyst that will ultimately put an end to this liquidity driven rally in the stock market. | 0.3% | -6.9% | 4.3% | 12.1% | – |
| 1/1/10 | …I think we are probably going to see another January swoon this year…on the order of a -10% correction is the most likely scenario before we start the next leg up… | 1.2% | -3.2% | 4.8% | 12.7% | – |
| 12/20/09 | …this cyclical bull is walking on thin ice. I really doubt we will see more than 3 legs up this time and it certainly won’t last anywhere near as long as the last cyclical bull. I have my doubts it will even make it past 2010, probably not even past the middle of the year if inflation explodes like I think it will early next year. | 1.1% | -2.0% | 5.4% | 12.8% | – |
| 12/13/09 | …now is probably the time you want to do like the smart money and build up cash to use when the correction comes. | 0.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 11.6% | – |
| 11/27/09 | THE CORRECTION HAS STARTED …Intermediate corrections usually last about 1-3 months. I expect this one to be on the short side… | 1.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 10.5% | – |
| 11/22/09 | …historic bulls suffered a secondary correction after the second leg topped out, of between 10-14%. We are probably due for that secondary correction anytime now. | 0.2% | 1.3% | -0.1% | 7.5% | – |
| 11/11/09 | For now the trend is up. Following the trend is still the safe bet. | 1.0% | 0.7% | -1.8% | 9.0% | + |
| 11/2/09 | The longer term trend is now up. Corrections should be viewed as counter trend moves that will eventually reverse… | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 17.1% | + |
| 9/25/09 | …this correction shouldn’t drop more than 35-50 points before reversing again. | -1.8% | 2.2% | 7.3% | 9.6% | + |
| 8/28/09 | …the direction is clearly up and a rising 200 DMA would suggest we are now dealing with a cyclical bull market (within a longer term secular bear market). | -1.2% | 3.1% | 7.9% | 5.0% | + |
| 8/18/09 | I suspect just like the rally out of the 01 bottom this thing is going to chop around for a while before finally breaking down and moving to new lows possibly by the end of Nov. | 3.9% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 8.3% | – |
| 7/7/09 | The odds are very high that the intermediate trend has turned. That means bears should hold their positions and ignore the short term bounces. Bounces are for adding to shorts not for trying to catch short term long trades. | 2.8% | 13.8% | 16.4% | 22.4% | – |
| 6/28/09 | Unless we have somehow entered another cyclical bull market (unlikely) then longs are now at the point of maximum risk. I’m seeing many signs that this rally is probably over. | -5.0% | 5.2% | 12.6% | 10.8% | – |
| 6/17/09 | I would expect some kind of weak rally the rest of the week and maybe even into next week before the market…starts the trip down into the major low. After we put in the short term top I doubt there will be many opprotunities on the long side until we put in that major low in July or August. It’s just about time for the bears to shine again. | -1.1% | 3.3% | 15.6% | 22.2% | – |
| 6/11/09 | …we should start the move down into a major cycle low anytime now. | -2.8% | -4.6% | 9.4% | 18.0% | 0 |
| 4/25/09 | …any break above 875 is going to be a false break. At the moment I’m leaning towards the counter trend rally out of the March lows either being over or very close to over at this point. Shorts…would probably be advised to hold till we get the next weekly cycle low later this summer or or early fall….we probably have seen or are very close to the final top of this rally price wise… | 5.8% | 4.1% | 14.2% | 40.7% | – |
| 4/19/09 | The market…is now working it’s way down into the next four year cycle low due probably in the fall of 2010. | 3.0% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 45.2% | – |
| 4/13/09 | …I’m guessing we still have three more major legs down in this bear market. | -3.1% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 41.1% | – |
| 3/18/09 | …we are at the beginning of another violent bear market rally. | 2.5% | 9.5% | 14.8% | 46.8% | + |
| 3/13/09 | Make no mistake this bear won’t end until summer or fall 2010 when the next 4 year cycle low is due. | 1.6% | 11.2% | 24.9% | 54.1% | – |
| 3/8/09 | …we probably have one more daily cycle down before this is over…a more lasting bottom probably in April or early May. …I would urge that you at least wait for a swing low and not try to anticipate a bottom at this time. | 11.4% | 20.5% | 39.0% | 70.0% | – |
| 2/20/09 | I expect we will see a bounce off the Nov. lows… I seriously doubt the double bottom will hold | -4.5% | 6.9% | 17.3% | 43.5% | + |
| 2/14/09 | My guess is that the market will probably trade sideways for a bit longer…before we get the next serious leg down. This could be a process that lasts into the summer so I’m not sure taking big short positions right now | -2.0% | 0.7% | 11.9% | 40.5% | 0 |
| 1/21/09 | We are going to get the buying opportunity of a lifetime, probably in the fall of 2010… | 4.0% | -8.4% | 1.2% | 30.5% | – |
| 12/31/08 | I don’t think…we’ve seen the lows for this bear at 740 either. | 0.7% | -8.6% | -10.2% | 25.8% | + |
| 12/23/08 | …bear markets don’t typically last only one year. The odds of this one now being done are slim. | 4.6% | -3.1% | -5.7% | 30.7% | + |
| 12/16/08 | …the market is still 24% below the 200 DMA… I still think we have a good chance of moving back up to the 200 DMA before this rally finally rolls over. | -5.5% | -6.9% | -13.0% | 20.7% | – |
| 12/2/08 | We could see another move back down…before the final bottom of this intermediate decline is in. …We should be days away from a final bottom if we haven’t already put it in. | 4.7% | 9.8% | -16.0% | 30.3% | + |
| 11/23/08 | …I really doubt 741 is…the final low but I think it has a good chance of marking the intermediate low. I think anyone short the market is now taking a big risk of getting caught in an explosive move up. …I would caution against trying to sell to quickly as I expect this rally will go much higher in percentage terms than anyone can imagine… | -0.4% | 1.9% | -10.2% | 28.1% | + |
| 11/9/08 | I still think the market will likely trade up… | -7.4% | -2.2% | -10.0% | 18.3% | – |
| 10/27/08 | I think we are probably within days to at most a week to 10 days of putting in a bottom. …Once the coming rally runs it’s course I fully expect the market to roll over into the second bear phase. This phase will last much longer and probably result in much more damage than what we’ve just seen. | 13.8% | 1.0% | -0.4% | 25.6% | – |
| 10/20/08 | Todays rally in the face of short term overbought levels is another sign that the bottom for the year may be in. | -11.1% | -10.0% | -15.7% | 14.4% | – |
| 10/14/08 | If this is the rally that separates the first and second phase of the bear market and I think it probably is, then the real damage will be done when this rally finally rolls over. The next phase of the bear market will probably take the market down to levels that no one can conceive at this point. | -10.1% | -14.6% | -12.6% | 9.0% | + |
| 10/6/08 | Did we see an important intermediate low today? It’s certainly possible. If not I think we are getting very close. | -5.1% | -4.8% | -12.2% | 0.8% | – |
| 9/15/08 | We may have a bit more downside tomorrow…but the odds are now in favor of a relief rally soon. | 1.2% | -16.3% | -26.8% | -10.7% | – |
| 9/8/08 | At the moment wall street is projecting next years earnings at $100. The problem is that this years earnings look to come in around $63. One has to wonder how in a global economic recession earnings are going to grow by 50% next year. I suspect the market is going to be sorely disappointed. | -5.9% | -21.4% | -33.3% | -17.6% | + |
| 9/2/08 | …we are in a bear market… | -4.2% | -9.1% | -29.8% | -21.5% | + |
| 8/21/08 | I suspect the rest of the global markets are going to follow the world index down and break to new lows strengthening the case for a very bearish next couple of years. | 1.8% | -5.5% | -32.8% | -19.5% | 0 |
| 8/8/08 | This pullback is most likely the half cycle low and probably a buying opportunity. | 0.1% | -5.5% | -26.5% | -22.4% | + |
| 7/6/08 | …bear market rules now apply. You don’t trade from the long side anymore. | -1.9% | 2.6% | -11.0% | -29.5% | + |
| 6/17/08 | …we are moving down into the coming 22 week cycle low soon. …Once this bounce fails we should get another leg down into the final low. At this point I still expect the Mar. lows to hold. | -2.7% | -6.7% | -11.7% | -31.8% | 0 |
| 5/27/08 | I do think the market is going to bounce into the end of the month but I suspect that is just going to allow the shorts in at a better level. | -0.6% | -4.6% | -6.7% | -33.7% | + |
| 4/19/08 | I have a feeling the market may be setting up for another test of the lows soon. …I’m still of the opinion that we have seen the 4 year cycle low… | 0.2% | 1.8% | -9.2% | -38.6% | – |
| 4/2/08 | Looking at the long term view of the general stock market one has to say we are in a bear market until proven otherwise. | -1.0% | 3.4% | -6.4% | -38.4% | + |
| 3/25/08 | I want to wait until everyone is scared to death (including me) before I commit my capital. | 1.3% | 2.0% | -2.6% | -38.4% | + |
| 2/24/08 | At the moment we are in the counter trend rally that should separate the first leg from the second leg down. | -2.9% | -2.2% | 1.6% | -45.1% | – |
| 2/4/08 | I suspect somewhere around 1400-1425 the market is going to run into stiff resistance and we are going to break the rising trend out of the Jan. low for a retest of the lows and possibly another leg down. | -3.0% | -3.4% | 1.9% | -38.7% | 0 |
| 1/23/08 | The next significant move should be a bounce back up to the consolidation area. At this point I no longer want to press the short side. | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.8% | -37.5% | + |
| 1/2/08 | …we could see a bounce here… One more violent bounce to scare out the weak shorts before we start down in earnest might be in order. | -2.6% | -3.6% | -5.5% | -35.9% | 0 |
| 12/13/07 | Patience…is what is needed now. You don’t have to be short… Simply go to cash and when the bottom comes you will be in a buying mood and ready to take advantage of Mr. Markets irrational move. | -1.9% | -7.2% | -13.5% | -38.6% | + |
| 12/5/07 | The market may still bounce into the end of the year. The odds are still in favor of that scenario… Once we get past this bounce/rally we should be setup for the final decline. History would suggest this decline has the possibility of being especially violent. | 0.1% | -4.6% | -12.2% | -38.7% | 0 |
| 11/27/07 | …I just don’t see any reason to get rid of my short position or to doubt the Dow Theory primary sell signal. | 2.4% | 3.4% | -3.4% | -37.2% | – |
| 11/12/07 | In this type of event you don’t try and catch a counter trend move. If you get one then great use it to add to shorts… | -0.4% | 3.3% | -6.3% | -36.7% | + |
| 11/7/07 | I have now turned cautiously bearish… | -0.3% | 2.0% | -9.4% | -37.7% | + |
| 10/11/07 | We may get a little short term weakness, but as of today it hardly looks like we saw the beginings of a bear market yet. | -0.9% | -6.5% | -8.6% | -35.8% | – |
| 9/2/07 | …the odds are much better for a positive Sept. than a down one. | -1.2% | 3.4% | -0.6% | -16.6% | + |
| 8/18/07 | This could be one of those times…with everything in your favor. | 1.5% | 5.8% | 0.4% | -11.6% | + |
| 8/8/07 | The odds seem to suggest that we’ve probably made the low or at the very least we should bounce strongly before the market can work lower again. | -6.1% | -2.9% | 0.3% | -12.8% | – |
| 7/24/07 | This is not the time to press the short side. Expect a violent reaction in the not too distant future. | -3.7% | -3.1% | -0.7% | -16.8% | – |
| 5/30/07 | There’s nothing to do but enjoy the ride until the big boys tell us it’s time to sell. | -0.8% | -1.6% | -4.1% | -9.4% | – |
| 5/18/07 | All in all I just don’t see any cracks in this bull yet. | -0.5% | 0.7% | -7.3% | -8.7% | – |
