As requested by a reader, we evaluate here Steven Jon Kaplan’s commentary at True Contrarian since May 2002 (the earliest listed before a 5/22/11 reset that discarded posts prior to 5/18/11). Steven Jon Kaplan states that “each issue will feature my intermediate-term financial outlook, my long-term financial outlook.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Steven Jon Kaplan focuses on gold and gold mining stocks, but he also comments on equities, commodities, Treasuries, real estate and the dollar. We focus on his comments about the overall U.S. stock market, and use the S&P 500 Index as a reasonable proxy when he comments on the NASDAQ Composite Index. His forecasting accuracy for other asset classes may be different.
- We regularize the sometimes sporadic True Contrarian issue dates by selecting the last issue for each month. The sporadic nature of the archive raises the possibility that issues are missing. Some issues are very long, and many repeat large sections from prior issues. If Steven Jon Kaplan offers no new (bolded) commentary on the stock market in the last issue of a month, we move to the next earliest issue for the month. We treat the oldest issue in the archive (5/1/02) as all new commentary.
- As suggested by the name of the site, Steven Jon Kaplan often cites volatility indexes (VIX and VXN) and other investor sentiment indicators when forecasting stock market behavior.
- Despite some accurate forecasts regarding the 2008-2009 bear market, Steven Jon Kaplan has generally been overly pessimistic about the U.S. stock market over the sample period.
- Steven Jon Kaplan’s forecast sample is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Steven Jon Kaplan via True Contrarian | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 126-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 11/26/12 | We will almost certainly experience a new all-time high for the S&P 500 index as it climbs during the first several months of 2013,,, After the S&P 500 tops out around 1600 in the winter or early spring, it will be set for a two-year plunge to roughly 600. | 1.0% | 6.4% | 18.0% | 28.5% | 0 |
| 11/15/12 | The fewer the number of people you know who are eager to buy stocks, the more aggressively you should buy. Several months from now, when very few will want to sell, you’ll know it’s time to do precisely that. | 5.7% | 12.3% | 23.2% | 32.1% | 0 |
| 10/30/12 | …fear over the outcome has become so widespread that the stock market will rally no matter who prevails. | 0.3% | 6.1% | 13.1% | 25.2% | + |
| 10/15/12 | …we are likely to experience a severe two-year equity bear market beginning in late 2012 or early 2013, [following] a strong upward surge for equities worldwide during the next several weeks or months… Most likely, the S&P 500 will either approach or surpass its all-time nominal high of 1576.09…just before they plummet by more than half. | -6.0% | 2.3% | 7.0% | 21.1% | – |
| 9/10/12 | …the uptrend for the S&P 500 and similar assets is likely to continue… | 0.9% | -0.7% | 8.8% | 18.8% | – |
| 8/23/12 | …the S&P 500 will likely approach 1500 and probably surpass it within the next couple of months. | 3.9% | 0.5% | 6.8% | 16.8% | – |
| 7/15/12 | …now is probably an ideal time to be accumulating equities. | 3.7% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 25.3% | + |
| 7/9/12 | …the fewest investors since the summer of 2009 have positioned their portfolios to profit from such an uptrend. This will likely lead to a powerful rally for equities and commodities during the next several weeks… This will almost surely require the S&P 500 to reach approximately 1450…. It is possible that a flurry of buying could…push the S&P 500 even higher to around 1500,,, | 3.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 24.4% | + |
| 5/31/12 | LEADING INDICATORS AND TRADERS’ COMMITMENTS ARE SCREAMING EQUITY BULL MARKET…the most reliable signals are sending an even stronger message about an upcoming stock-market rally than was being transmitted near the end of 2011 when most investors similarly ignored reality. | 4.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 23.8% | + |
| 5/16/12 | Stock markets worldwide are close to completing important bottoming patterns; many equity indices will achieve new all-time highs during the upcoming summer. | 1.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 25.0% | 0 |
| 4/15/12 | I remain bearish toward global equities over the next several months…. We have likely transitioned to a severe bear market which could last until the end of 2014, and therefore I have a position in…the only actively-managed U.S. exchange-traded fund which holds pure equity short positions… | -2.8% | -0.9% | 4.6% | 14.1% | – |
| 3/5/12 | …it is important to sharply reduce your equity exposure and even to go net short. …following the upcoming correction, you should expect yet another risk-asset rally…probably this spring, …we are likely to experience a true bear market in which most broad-based equity indices including the S&P 500 index slump at least 30%…later in 2012, probably in the summer…and perhaps extending into the early autumn. | 3.6% | -6.3% | 2.6% | 14.1% | – |
| 2/14/12 | …In the accounts I manage for myself and my clients, I sold all of my equity funds on Thursday, February 9, 2012. | 3.9% | -0.9% | 4.0% | 12.0% | – |
| 1/30/12 | …it is certain that the S&P 500 will soon surpass its May 2, 2011 intraday zenith of 1370.58…the S&P 500 will quickly approach and probably surpass 1400….it will present an ideal selling opportunity and will almost surely be followed by a bear market where the S&P 500 drops by at least 20%–and probably by more than 30% by the summer or autumn of 2012. | 4.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 13.9% | 0 |
| 1/9/12 | …the imminent uptrend for stocks and other risk assets could be substantially greater than nearly all analysts are currently anticipating. | 5.4% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 14.8% | + |
| 12/20/11 | The financial markets classically behave in whichever manner will benefit the fewest number of people. Therefore, with the vast majority of investors having reduced risk, a strong rally will effectively punish such pusillanimous folks for their cowardly behavior. | 6.0% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 14.4% | + |
| 11/30/11 | THE ALIGNMENT IS NEARLY PERFECT FOR BUYING STOCKS …the recent unloading by amateurs ensures that global stock markets will rally significantly during the next several months. | 0.9% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 13.0% | + |
| 11/17/11 | … it is almost surely correct to…increase your equity exposure…while we can experience additional short-term weakness in the stock market, a prolonged downtrend cannot begin with investors already so fearful…the most likely course of events would be for general equity indices to retest and probably surpass their recovery peaks. | -0.9% | 11.9% | 6.5% | 15.9% | + |
| 8/9/11 | IT’S TIME TO BUY STOCKS NOW (August 8, 2011) … this is almost surely an ideal time to purchase equities… | 1.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 19.9% | + |
| 7/1/11 | It is likely that we have already begun a major bear market for nearly all global risk assets; as investors progressively withdraw money from equities… | -5.2% | -13.4% | -5.7% | 2.1% | – |
| 5/18/11 | …we are currently transitioning from a powerful two-year bull market to what will likely become a severe bear market with similar intensity to the one in 2007-2009. …stick with long-dated U.S. Treasury funds including TLT for another 1-1/2 years rather than owning equities… | -5.2% | -11.0% | -6.3% | -1.8% | 0 |
| 4/24/11 | Now is one of those times when you should be selling, since you will be able to buy back your stocks at less than half price within two years… | -1.4% | 0.7% | -9.0% | 4.8% | – |
| 4/4/11 | …almost no one is concerned that we are going to get a repeat of 2007-2009. …As global real-estate markets collapse, equities worldwide will again lose more than half their value. | 1.1% | 0.5% | -15.1% | 4.9% | – |
| 3/7/11 | …it is becoming increasingly likely that most U.S. equity indices had peaked on February 18, 2011. …Remember 2008, and act accordingly; 2011-2012 will be a nearly exact repeat with a few minor variations. | 1.7% | 1.7% | -8.1% | 4.3% | – |
| 12/29/10 | …added to my short equity and short commodity positions. | 1.3% | 4.7% | 2.9% | -0.2% | – |
| 12/19/10 | Most analysts are busy debating whether stock markets will gain less than 10% or more than 10% in 2011. Since so few analysts are willing to stick their necks out and proclaim their bearishness, I’m doing precisely that. | 2.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | -0.3% | – |
| 11/28/10 | …sell [equities] whenever they become overvalued as they are today. …It will likely not be until 2012 that we have true bargains which are worthwhile for consideration for nearly all risk assets. | 6.1% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 5.0% | – |
| 11/8/10 | The recent extreme bullishness toward equities and commodities must therefore lead to a dramatic pullback for these and virtually all other risk assets over the next two years, as we begin a global bear market which will rival and perhaps surpass the 2007-2009 bear market in terms of intensity and magnitude. | 0.4% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 0.5% | – |
| 10/31/10 | The great global bull market of 2008-2010 is transitioning to a major global bear market. The sooner you recognize this critical shift, the more handsomely you will profit from it. | 1.8% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 4.5% | – |
| 9/26/10 | …it is highly unpopular but essential to keep the vast majority of your net worth in the safest time deposits available. …it is no coincidence that the movie “Wall Street” opened this past weekend. We all know what happened to the financial markets shortly after the original film was released in 1987. It’s not different this time. | 3.8% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 0.8% | – |
| 7/26/10 | …I expect that a downside breakout to roughly 950 for the S&P 500 within a few weeks of Labor Day is the most likely outcome. This will likely be followed by yet another recovery above 1100… I still expect the S&P 500 to plummet below 500, and perhaps even below 400, within roughly two years. | -5.7% | -5.7% | 15.1% | 17.0% | – |
| 7/12/10 | THE GLOBAL EQUITY DOWNTREND IS NOT OVER IN THE SHORT RUN, AND ESPECIALLY NOT IN THE LONG RUN… the market will go down to perhaps 950…and will then sharply rebound…the only notable rebound over the next several months. Most likely, such a rally will begin in late July or early August 2010 after the selling panic has run its course, and will result in the S&P 500 climbing from 950 to somewhere above 1100. …I expect the current bear market to result in a total pullback of 60%-70% for this index by the time it completes its bottom in 2012, thereafter rallying strongly for several months in advance of the next U.S. Presidential election on November 6, 2012. | 3.9% | 3.9% | 18.1% | 22.2% | – |
| 3/24/10 | The recent surge in insider selling relative to insider buying by top executives confirms that the equity breakout is a false move and should be used as a prime selling opportunity. …general equities set for a historic bear market which will end up becoming the most dramatic percentage pullback since the Great Depression. …Probably most U.S. equity indices will lose…60%-70% in their upcoming bear market… Look out below. | 4.2% | -6.2% | -2.4% | 12.5% | – |
| 1/24/10 | A TWO-YEAR EQUITY BEAR MARKET HAS PROBABLY BEGUN…: From January 6, 2010 through January 13, 2010, I sold nearly all of my equities and equity funds in anticipation of what may be the most severe global equity bear market since the Great Depression…the current bear market will persist for another 1-1/2 to 2-1/2 years. | 0.8% | 11.0% | 0.5% | 18.2% | – |
| 10/11/09 | …we will eventually experience a nearly vertical rise for several equity…sectors, as often occurs near the end of any extended rally. However,…financial markets first have to experience a meaningful correction of probably about one sixth for general equity indices such as the S&P 500 index. … Once the maximum possible number of investors are once again heavily committed to the stock market, we will naturally experience yet another crushing equity bear market. It is likely that such a retreat will begin in the first half of 2010, will continue for about two years… | 1.6% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 9.1% | – |
| 8/25/09 | …a sharp equity correction has become increasingly imminent. …probably in September 2009, …the upcoming global equity correction is complete, and is about to lead to the next stage of the powerful worldwide equity bull market which will likely achieve its ultimate peaks in January and/or February of 2010. It will be critical to sell all of your stocks and corporate bonds this winter, as we will commence a severe bear market at that time of roughly two years in duration. This bear market will result in the S&P 500 bottoming at least one third below…666.79. | 2.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 3.6% | – |
| 8/3/09 | …equities are in the earliest stages of what will likely be a sharp, intense pullback over the next several weeks. …After perhaps one month of a double-digit retreat for the S&P 500 and similar indices, I expect that the powerful 2009 rally will resume in full force to achieve significantly higher highs. | -0.5% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 12.3% | – |
| 6/24/09 | …what must inevitably happen is that one fine day in late June or early July of 2009, the general equity market will break…to complete a short-term bottom near 837. …Within a week or so thereafter, the S&P will likely regain the 900… The quick bull market will likely end this autumn… That could result in the S&P reaching 1300. | 9.1% | 18.9% | 23.2% | 19.3% | – |
| 5/25/09 | Most global equity indices are likely to decline moderately in value over the next few weeks…before global equities can resume their powerful uptrend this summer. | -1.0% | 12.7% | 20.3% | 21.2% | – |
| 3/8/09 | …the next half year will experience the most dramatic short-term global equity rally since the Great Depression. | 20.5% | 39.0% | 48.3% | 70.0% | + |
| 2/16/09 | …financial markets are certain to surge sharply higher… Even if you are months off with your buying and selling, you will gain at least 20% or 30% this year… | 0.7% | 11.9% | 27.2% | 40.5% | + |
| 1/19/09 | BUY NOW, BEFORE YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY JUMP IN… With too many investors gloomy and equity fund flows having been net negative since early October, the…S&P 500 will likely regain the 1300 level in the second half of 2009… | -3.3% | 3.4% | 18.1% | 35.6% | 0 |
| 11/9/08 | While global equity markets have been forming a bullish pattern of higher lows, the average investor feels emotionally that they are making lower lows. This is a classic sign of a major bottom and a strong buy signal. | -2.2% | -10.0% | -1.2% | 18.3% | – |
| 10/19/08 | CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE EQUITIES ON ALL PULLBACKS… It is likely that many global equities completed important five-year bottoms on October 10, 2008 which were confirmed on October 16, 2008. …I have been heavily accumulating numerous equity funds. | -10.0% | -15.7% | -11.0% | 14.4% | – |
| 9/21/08 | SELL ALL OF YOUR STOCKS THIS WEEK… It is likely that most U.S. equity indices will plummet about 20%…the upcoming stock-market bottom is scheduled to occur in October 2008. So we are about to experience a dramatic plunge that will probably begin later this week. | -25.7% | -26.7% | -31.8% | -12.9% | + |
| 8/17/08 | …SELL SHORT U.S. EQUITY FUNDS…we are about to enjoy the sharpest phase of the entire U.S. equity correction… | -9.6% | -28.7% | -38.3% | -21.2% | + |
| 7/27/08 | …EQUITIES ARE SET TO PLUMMET…don’t even think about buying stocks… | 3.0% | -29.0% | -32.2% | -20.1% | + |
| 6/26/08 | …in a few months, stock markets around the world will return close to their respective support levels from 2005 and 2006. | -3.8% | -7.6% | -32.7% | -28.4% | + |
| 5/26/08 | The deepest lows of the global equity downtrend lie ahead of us, not behind us. The nadirs from January and March 2008 will be broken to the downside by double-digit percentages worldwide over the next few months. | -4.6% | -6.7% | -45.7% | -33.7% | + |
| 3/3/08 | GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS ARE SET FOR THE NEXT PHASE IN THEIR CORRECTION… Eventually, major equity index and fund support levels from 2006 and even 2005 will be experienced as the euphoria of 2007 leads to the panic of 2008. | 2.7% | 5.2% | -2.3% | -48.7% | + |
| 2/12/08 | …July 2006 lows for nearly all global equity indices will be closely approached over the next few months. This implies that the Nasdaq still has about 20% remaining downside… | -2.5% | 4.1% | -3.2% | -38.7% | + |
| 12/16/07 | The biggest mistake that most people will make over the next several months will be to purchase their favorite equities…too early. …2008 will…enjoy an abundance of false downside breakouts that will be the best buying opportunities in three years. Have plenty of cash on hand to make heavy purchases whenever you see such a phony collapse. | -7.8% | -8.0% | -6.6% | -38.8% | + |
| 11/19/07 | EMERGING MARKETS ARE SET FOR A HUGE PULLBACK | 1.4% | -5.1% | -1.4% | -47.5% | + |
| 10/28/07 | A narrowing of the bullish rotational pattern is a reliable omen of trouble for global equities. …reducing positions would be a far more prudent course of action. | -4.7% | -11.6% | -10.1% | -38.1% | + |
| 8/25/07 | IS THE WORLDWIDE STOCK MARKET CORRECTION OVER? NO WAY! …there remain incredibly extended asset classes wherever you look. | 4.0% | -1.8% | -5.8% | -11.3% | + |
| 7/23/07 | The global equity market, at a historic peak of complacency, is set for a typical cyclical correction… | -6.1% | -0.1% | -14.0% | -18.7% | + |
| 6/17/07 | Base metals prices are an important leading indicator. As they have been falling, the U.S. dollar has been quietly rallying. U.S. Treasuries often complete an important multi-year bottom in advance of a major worldwide equity decline, and such a nadir may have been achieved during the past week. …all three of these events happening simultaneously are warning that Goldilocks is likely to soon be followed by the three bears. | 1.0% | -3.1% | -2.8% | -12.3% | + |
| 4/11/07 | …the path to investing for the remainder of 2007 is clear. As emerging-market equity bourses collapse worldwide, this will put substantial downward pressure on all equity indices, including those in developed countries such as the United States. | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.9% | -7.7% | – |
| 3/19/07 | …financial markets swing from feast to famine. When it is famine–like now–don’t pursue a futile search for the choicest scraps, but stay as far away as possible. When it is feast, as it will likely be later in 2007, you will have your pick of whatever sectors you prefer, at their lowest levels in years. | 5.0% | 9.3% | 5.9% | -5.2% | – |
| 2/19/07 | …we will likely experience one of the sharpest corrections in recent memory… The biggest surprise to investors will be how much more rapidly the worldwide equity markets decline in 2007 than they did in 2000-2002. | -1.7% | 4.3% | -0.9% | -7.3% | 0 |
| 1/1/07 | Over the next several months, equity indices worldwide will move noticeably lower… Be sure to get out of the stock market in time, so that you will enjoy a prosperous 2007. | 2.2% | 1.5% | 7.6% | 0.0% | – |
| 12/8/06 | …equities have completed a major peak in advance of a significant correction… | 1.0% | -2.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | – |
| 11/28/06 | Some measures of implied equity volatility plunged last week to extremes not seen since 1993. When the fewest number of participants in the equity market fear a significant downturn, that is precisely when it is most likely to occur. | 2.7% | 1.2% | 10.4% | 6.2% | – |
| 10/23/06 | …equities in general are likely to soon experience a substantial downward correction that could continue for several months. | 1.9% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 11.5% | – |
| 9/10/06 | …we are about to experience another important equity bottom in the fourth quarter of 2006, and investors should either therefore substantially reduce their equity holdings… | 4.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 14.2% | – |
| 8/27/06 | In the short run, meaning the next two or three months of 2006, falling housing prices in conjunction with the reliable four-year Presidential cycle will likely dominate the financial markets, causing…equities…to decline over the next several months. | 2.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 13.2% | – |
| 7/27/06 | The Presidential cycle is a reliable pattern in which U.S. equities make an important nadir every four years…, usually in the late summer or early autumn. 2006 is going to be another such year. Look out below. | 2.5% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 16.0% | – |
| 6/11/06 | …the Presidential cycle has behaved reliably since World War II. This is not likely to be the first exception to the rule. October is the most common month for a low, so that still leaves another four months or so of downside action. | 1.8% | 5.1% | 13.8% | 24.0% | – |
| 5/29/06 | Equities are entering their strongest time of the month, but once that passes next week, they are likely to plunge to new lows. | -1.1% | 2.8% | 11.2% | 22.2% | – |
| 4/12/06 | …equities…worldwide are making the slow turn from an uptrend to a downtrend… It is likely that, once these reversals are complete and the acceleration begins in the opposite direction, that these trends will persist…roughly until October 2006. | 0.2% | -2.3% | 5.1% | 14.3% | – |
| 3/19/06 | …it is likely that we will experience the next bear market bottom…around October 2006. The surprise to most participants will be how deep a bottom it will be. The Nasdaq will likely retrace 61.8% of its entire gain since its nadir of October 10, 2002… | 0.4% | -4.1% | 1.1% | 10.0% | – |
| 2/26/06 | Every even-numbered year which is not a multiple of four has seen a meaningful decline in U.S. equities from January through late in the year, or early the following year. …Volatility indices are forming a bottoming pattern which in the past has always led to a substantial decline in U.S. equities. …if something has been reliably true for sixty years, chances are it will remain so. | -0.1% | -1.6% | 0.1% | 7.2% | – |
| 1/29/06 | …almost all equity indices are showing classic signs of negative divergences, as often happens before a sharp decline. …Investors should be aggressively selling equities… | 0.5% | 2.0% | -0.5% | 12.7% | – |
| 12/26/05 | U.S. EQUITIES WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR USUAL FOURTH-YEAR BLUES… The next deep bottom will therefore likely be in the second half of 2006. | 2.2% | 2.9% | -1.4% | 12.9% | – |
| 11/27/05 | …U.S. equities are set for what will likely be a substantial and sustained pullback which will likely continue until the autumn of 2006. | 0.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 11.4% | – |
| 10/16/05 | The U.S. equity bounce is merely a technical rebound from an oversold condition, and therefore after perhaps 3 or 4 more days of upside, the downward trend will soon resume in earnest. | 3.3% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 14.9% | – |
| 9/20/05 | …expect an eleventh consecutive move higher in the federal funds rate, to 3.75%… This outcome is likely to…accelerate the so-far modest stock market decline… Expect U.S. equities to rise for 15 or 20 minutes following the announcement, followed by a sharp plunge lower…an ideal time to add to short positions in U.S. equities… | -2.1% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | – |
| 8/15/05 | Given the tendency of U.S. equities to make a deep bottom every four years, that still leaves 14 months before the next probable cycle low in October 2006. | -0.5% | -0.2% | 2.3% | 5.2% | – |
| 7/25/05 | The financial media have completely missed the most important financial story of 2005, which will be long remembered as the year when equities…peaked before a multi-year decline of historic proportions. | -0.9% | -4.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | – |
| 6/26/05 | U.S. EQUITIES HAVE BEGUN WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE A FOUR-MONTH COLLAPSE… If you still hold general or technology U.S. equity mutual funds and have not yet sold them, do so as soon as possible. | 3.9% | 2.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | – |
| 5/30/05 | Now is an ideal time to sell short ETFs such as QQQQ and SMH. | 0.7% | 1.1% | 6.4% | 8.1% | – |
| 4/10/05 | …the Nasdaq is set for a sharp short-term collapse to 1900, its most consistent support level of the past 1-1/2 years. Short-term speculators should immediately purchase short-dated puts on QQQQ and SMH. | -1.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 9.1% | – |
| 3/6/05 | It is likely that semiconductor shares are pointing the way lower for the Nasdaq, and in turn, the Nasdaq is pointing the way lower for the broader market over the next several months. | -3.4% | -2.4% | -0.3% | 3.8% | + |
| 2/27/05 | I am strongly convinced that the Nasdaq in the second half of 2005 will complete a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its entire gain from its nadir in October 2002 through its peak on the first trading day of 2005, plus an additional 1% percentage decline… | -1.8% | -0.5% | 0.7% | 7.1% | – |
| 1/2/05 | In a virtual repeat of 2001, the stock market will move progressively lower. Expect the Nasdaq to first decline to 1750 in the spring, then after bouncing to 1900, to drop again to 1500 in the summer, and finally after another bounce by late summer, to make an autumn bottom near 1250, before ending the year very close to 1475. | -0.7% | -2.2% | -0.6% | 5.9% | – |
| 12/21/04 | It is likely that U.S. equities will continue their usual pattern of declining sharply in the first half of the second term of a Republican president. | -3.1% | -2.8% | 0.7% | 5.2% | – |
| 11/29/04 | Most U.S. equity indices are likely set to continue the pattern of lower highs that began in early 2000, and which was temporarily interrupted by the partial rebound since October 2002. | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 6.0% | – |
| 10/10/04 | U.S. equities are likely to decline substantially over the next several weeks, with the Nasdaq falling to around 1500… | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | – |
| 9/19/04 | For U.S. equities, …bullish sentiment is especially dangerous in combination with the very low implied volatilities, as well as a clear downtrend of lower highs since the early part of 2004. | -1.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | – |
| 8/22/04 | …likely setting up a sharp drop in U.S. equities that will only end in late September or early October because the period of several weeks leading up to a U.S. presidential election is almost always positive. The stock market will therefore likely stage a strong rebound once fear finally returns, but probably not before the Nasdaq is around its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 1500. | 1.6% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 0 |
| 7/25/04 | U.S. equities could have a bounce at any time, but the fear in the market remains far too low for a sustained bottom, so equities will sooner or later drop to their August 2003 lows, and possibly several percent below…. Given the Presidential cycle, this decline is likely to be followed by a sharp rebound all the way back to current levels. …the Nasdaq will probably make a low near either 1650 or 1500, perhaps in late August, then rebound all the way to its current level near 1850 shortly before the election. Looking forward to 2005 and 2006, I would expect the October 2002 lows in U.S. equities to be retested in 2005, and then smashed convincingly in 2006 as the Nasdaq collapses all the way to fair value near 650. | 1.1% | 2.1% | 7.7% | 14.1% | – |
| 6/21/04 | …all pointing the way toward a Nasdaq collapse toward 1500 over the next few months. | -3.2% | -0.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | – |
| 5/9/04 | …I would anticipate a steep drop in U.S. equities over the next few months. | 4.1% | -2.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | – |
| 3/17/04 | …a continued choppy path lower over the next several months. …U.S. equities in general will continue to decline until the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is between 7.5% and 10.5%. | 1.0% | 0.9% | -0.3% | 5.3% | – |
| 2/29/04 | Nasdaq…should continue their downward move throughout March, with an occasional sharp bounce… | -2.5% | -3.0% | -4.2% | 4.7% | + |
| 1/25/04 | …Nasdaq will most likely soon follow gold to the downside. | -1.0% | -1.3% | -6.2% | 1.7% | + |
| 7/31/03 | …all point toward sharply lower U.S. equity prices over the next few years, and the real possibility of a 1929-style crash in October 2003. Therefore, investors should concentrate on selling short U.S. technology stocks at this time. | 1.8% | 5.7% | 14.5% | 10.9% | – |
| 5/19/03 | …the Nasdaq could well drop 40% by this autumn to a level below 900. | 9.7% | 7.6% | 14.9% | 18.3% | – |
| 4/7/03 | the U.S. equity market will…move in the direction of least resistance, which is straight down, and is poised to decline below its October 2002 lows for a total drop of 30%-40% over the next several months. | 5.6% | 14.1% | 17.0% | 29.5% | – |
| 3/17/03 | …the Iraq uncertainty has delayed a lot of selling of equities that would otherwise have occurred, and has thus put a temporary delay in the three-year bear market. Once the situation is resolved, one way or the other, there will be…a major collapse in the U.S. equity markets. Months of pent-up selling will cascade all at once, possibly causing U.S. equities to drop 40% within a few months. | 3.2% | 14.6% | 18.1% | 30.1% | – |
| 2/25/03 | The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go below 2000 eventually. …the dividend yield on the S&P 500 index will exceed 7%, and maybe even 8% or 9%… | 3.7% | 11.3% | 18.4% | 36.5% | – |
| 7/31/02 | Look for the U.S. stock market to peak in late August or early September 2002… | 0.7% | -2.3% | -5.2% | 7.8% | + |
| 6/11/02 | Look for the U.S. stock market to peak in late July or early August 2002… | -8.5% | -10.9% | -10.0% | -2.5% | – |
| 5/1/02 | By the time we’re done, the Nasdaq will be below 300 and QQQ will be below 6… Perhaps we will bottom in the summer of 2004… | -1.8% | -16.9% | -18.1% | -14.7% | – |
