We evaluate here the stock market commentary of Dennis Slothower via Zacks.com and MarketWatch.com since June 2002. Dennis Slothower, who is editor of the Stealth Stocks and On the Money newsletters. According to Stealth Stocks, Mr. Slothower “is an absolute master at taking into account how world news – the true ‘market-moving events’ – will impact each and every investment in his trading portfolio.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Dennis Slothower relies on a combination of technical and fundamental factors in forecasting stock market behavior. He emphasizes the importance of crude oil prices and money supply to the stock market.
- With respect to market timing, Mr. Slothower did fairly well in recognizing the market bottom in late 2002 but was slow by several months in committing fully to the 2003 upswing. Similarly, he avoided the crash in 2008-2009 but did not commit to the ensuing rebound. On short to intermediate term calls, he is sometimes right and sometimes wrong.
- Dennis Slothower’s forecast sample is moderate, as is confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
Here are additional notes to augment the tabular summary below:
From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (6/21/12): “Over the past 12 months, Stealth Stocks Daily is up 3.31% versus negative 1.75% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000. …Over the past three years, it’s up 2.79% annualized versus 15.29% annualized for the total return Wilshire 5000. But over the past five years, which includes the crash of 2008, Stealth Stocks Daily is up 4.34% annualized versus negative 0.66% annualized for the total return Wilshire 5000.”
From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (1/5/12): “…he’s now No. 14 for the year — but he’s still beating the market. Over the past 12 months through December, Stealth Stocks Daily is up 5.3% by Hulbert Financial Digest count vs. 0.98% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index. Over the past three years, reflecting Stealth Stocks’ post-crash caution, the letter is up 3.26% annualized vs. 14.93% annualized for the total return Wilshire 5000. But over the past five years, the letter was up an annualized 3.26% vs. just 0.12% annualized for the total return Wilshire.”
From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (10/6/11): “Over the year to date through September, Stealth Stocks Daily Alert is the top performer by Hulbert Financial Digest count, up 8.4% vs. negative 9.86% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index. Over the past 12 months, Slothower is up 10.61% vs. just 0.58% for the total return Wilshire. Over the past three years, which still includes the Crash of 2008, the letter is up 4.31% annualized vs. 1.49% annualized for the Wilshire. Over the past five years, it was up 4.28% annualized vs. negative 0.75% annualized for the Wilshire.”
From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (11/1/10): “…Stealth Stocks is up a solid 2.7% annualized over the nine…years it has been followed by the Hulbert Financial Digest, compared to 1.9% annualized for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index. But over the over the last five…years, it is up 4.6% annualized vs. negative 0.5% for the total return Wilshire 5000.”
From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (2/1/10): “…over the past 12 months, Stealth Stock Daily Alert is up only 2.1% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, compared to 28.3% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index. Still, over the past three years, Slothower is up an annualized 3.93% against negative 5.25% annualized for the total return Wilshire 5000.And over the past five years, the letter was up an annualized 3.45%, versus just 0.93% annualized for the total return Wilshire 5000.”
From Tim Smith in MarketWatch (7/24/09): “From January 1995, when the Hulbert Financial Digest began tracking his service, until the end of October 2007…his service modestly lagged the Wilshire 5000. It returned an annualized 8.9%, vs. 11.9% for the Wilshire. Slothower, however, went mostly into cash around that high… From November 2007 to June 2009, his service’s T-bill position has returned a positive annualized 0.5%, while the Wilshire 5000 has lost 24.7%.”
From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (12/4/08): “…over the past three years, during which the total return DJ-Wilshire 5,000 has lost negative 8.93% annualized, Stealth Stocks Daily Alert has achieved a annualized gain of 5.16% by Hulbert Financial Digest count; Stealth Stocks has achieved 6.6% annualized and On the Money has achieved 1.99% annualized. …over the past five years, Stealth Stocks has achieved an annualized gain of 2.47%, vs. negative 1.16% annualized for the total return DJ-W 5,000. And over the past 10 years, On The Money has achieved an annualized gain of 5.71%, vs. a 0.19% annualized loss for the total return DJ-W.”
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Dennis Slothower via zacks.com and MarketWatch.com | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 9/17/12 | “…the broader market…chart is now suggesting that a long-running bull market (justified or not) should be expected.” …Stealth Stocks Daily Alert is now 40% invested — a recent high. | -0.3% | -0.4% | -2.1% | 16.5% | + |
| 8/30/12 | …Stealth Stocks Daily…has battened down the hatches. It is 80% in cash, 10% long hedged by 10% short. | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 18.3% | – |
| 7/9/12 | Stealth Stocks is currently 30% invested — 10% long, 20% short and 70% in cash / money market funds. | 0.1% | 3.6% | 8.1% | 24.4% | – |
| 6/25/12 | Stealth Stock Daily has added two short positions, making it 10% net long, 50% in cash. | 3.9% | 1.8% | 11.1% | 22.9% | – |
| 6/21/12 | Stealth Stocks Daily is 30% invested, which is a lot for him…. “I expect to see buy signals being produced soon…” | 0.3% | 1.9% | 10.2% | 21.7% | + |
| 5/10/12 | …Dennis Slothower’s Stealth Stock Daily (SSD)…is now a cautious 20% invested. | -3.9% | -3.6% | 3.3% | 21.5% | + |
| 4/5/12 | …Slothower is still 50% invested… “Until I see the major indexes trending at least below their 50-day moving averages we have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls…” | -2.0% | -2.0% | -2.2% | 13.6% | – |
| 2/20/12 | Stealth Stock Daily’s Dennis Slothower…is now 50% in stocks. | 1.1% | 3.0% | -4.9% | 9.9% | + |
| 1/5/12 | Currently Slothower is bullish — by his standards: 30% invested. …“Presently, the tone of the market is technically pushing higher, at least for the broad market indexes…with the primary dealers driving prices higher.” | 1.1% | 4.9% | 9.2% | 14.9% | + |
| 12/15/11 | Slothower is 100% in cash… “We are in a downward pattern with this index but there is no ‘persistency’ of the primary trend.” | 3.1% | 7.6% | 15.5% | 18.7% | – |
| 12/5/11 | Slothower is still 100% in cash. But now he’s negative short-term. | -1.6% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 12.8% | 0 |
| 11/28/11 | “I could easily see a short-covering rally take prices for the S&P 500 to the 1,220 level…At best, it might present a great shorting opportunity…” Slothower is 100% in cash. | 5.4% | 4.8% | 15.1% | 18.2% | – |
| 11/10/11 | “…it would not surprise me to see a 50% or 61.8% retracement off the October rally, which would be another 4%-6% drop from here.” Slothower is currently 100% in cash. | -1.9% | -0.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | + |
| 10/27/11 | …generally bearish…. Slothower remains 90% in cash, 10% short… | -1.8% | -7.2% | 2.5% | 11.1% | + |
| 10/6/11 | Slothower is still bearish. …“This spike rally isn’t likely to last long. …We are now 10% invested (short position) and 90% in cash/money-market funds…” | 3.3% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 23.7% | – |
| 9/22/11 | Dennis Slothower of Stealth Stocks Daily is mostly in cash, about 20% short. | 2.7% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 27.6% | – |
| 9/12/11 | Slothower is currently 20%…short…and 80% in cash. “I expect to shortly see prices…break down through support. …any reasonable back-test of a failure in support would be a good time to consider short positions or inverse-fund exposures.” | 3.6% | 2.9% | 6.2% | 25.6% | – |
| 8/8/11 | “Risk remains too highly elevated for anyone to play around in the market except hard core speculators.” | 7.6% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 25.3% | – |
| 8/1/11 | “For now, remain 100% in cash / money-market funds, as the economy is fast slipping into recession…” | -13.0% | -5.8% | -0.2% | 6.1% | + |
| 7/11/11 | Slothower…is generally bearish. But.…”The fact that profits may continue to remain intact may not result in share prices falling as much as we might think or be expecting.” | -1.1% | -11.1% | -11.7% | 1.2% | 0 |
| 6/27/11 | Dennis Slothower…is 100% in cash now. …“The bulls…could quite easily push during this end of June / early July window-dressing period to fake out traders and get them to jump on the train [and] create another dump in July, after the July payroll report, …where I am leaning.” | 4.5% | 1.9% | -11.2% | 3.8% | + |
| 6/6/11 | “this bull market will soon end and be replaced with a bear market. And I fear it could be just as bad as what we saw in 2008 – maybe worse…it may still be premature to think the Fed/investment banks are not going to continue more ‘pump and dump’ sideways-market behavior before QE2 officially ends here at the end of the month.” | -1.1% | 4.1% | -6.4% | 2.2% | 0 |
| 5/5/11 | “I think investors need to be prepared that the next couple of quarters are going to see a repeat of what happened in 2008… Frankly, I don’t think this bull market has much longer to live… “We are 10% invested (short…) and 90% cash/money markets.” | 1.0% | -3.7% | -5.6% | 2.1% | + |
| 3/17/11 | Now Slothower is again 100% in cash. “Prices may yet have to fall clear down to the 200-day moving average to find strong enough support to hold the primary trend given the global panic that is spreading, which for the S&P 500 is at 1,212.” | 2.8% | 3.6% | -0.7% | 10.3% | – |
| 2/3/11 | Slothower’s Stealth Stocks Daily Alert, is…growlingly, grudgingly, bullish. …he’s now only 70% in cash. | 1.1% | 0.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | – |
| 11/11/10 | …he’s participating “with a small allocation as this is a gambler’s rally with the house holding all the cards, against a gruesome set of dark clouds developing in the background.” For the first time in what seems like years, Slothower is only 80% in cash. | -1.4% | 2.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | – |
| 11/1/10 | “…once the midterm elections are past us, I believe the Fed will stop its POMO campaign, and when they do, expect another whipsaw back down to follow.” | 3.3% | 1.8% | 8.6% | 4.5% | – |
| 7/19/10 | …bearish… “The only time that [the ECRI Weekly Leading Index] has dropped this rapidly (in recent times) or this far was the 2008 credit crisis and subsequent market crash that fall. We are there again.” | 4.1% | 2.0% | 9.6% | 23.8% | – |
| 7/8/10 | “…it is getting harder for the bulls to support this market, but we are deeply oversold on both the short-term and intermediate-term cycles, suggesting a bounce is likely of some magnitude.” He’s 100% in cash. | 2.5% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 23.3% | – |
| 7/1/10 | “June’s price collapse below the long-term moving averages is predicting the beginning of a new bear market.” | 4.9% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 30.2% | – |
| 5/24/10 | “This is going to continue, folks. It is simply not over yet.” …Slothower is…in cash. | -0.3% | 1.7% | -0.2% | 23.0% | + |
| 4/29/10 | “…the market…is likely to develop into an intermediate correction… Since we are entering the ‘window dressing’ period, we may see an attempt to push higher over the next two weeks, but clearly this rally has reached a point where potential reward is outweighed by potential risk. …Remain defensive …topping pattern seems to be playing out right now.” | -6.5% | -9.7% | -8.3% | 12.8% | + |
| 3/18/10 | “This is just not the time to start swinging with the bulls.” He’s 100% in cash. | 0.0% | 2.7% | -4.4% | 11.4% | + |
| 2/1/10 | “…the bears have been rudely awakened from their winter hibernation and are in no mood to go back to sleep. They sound hungry.” …He’s 100% in cash. | -3.0% | 2.7% | 9.0% | 19.7% | – |
| 1/25/10 | “Those…hoping that their rubber raft will once again keep them afloat until a beach shows up somewhere or the tide changes….may float out to sea… If you are not in 100% cash, consider getting to that point quickly, especially on any bounce we might see next week.” | -0.7% | 0.8% | 11.0% | 18.2% | – |
| 11/9/09 | “…the market should continue to advance — for a while.” …although Slothower has consistently been positive in his short term comments, he’s in cash. This is because he thinks something really horrible might be coming — he’s talking about a possible 40%-60% market decline… | 1.5% | 0.3% | -2.1% | 11.0% | – |
| 10/12/09 | “…I maintain a bullish but very cautious and concerned outlook for the next quarter or two.” | 2.0% | 1.6% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 0 |
| 9/21/09 | “…from a risk assessment perspective, I continue to recommend caution here.” | -0.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.7% | – |
| 8/11/09 | …turning moderately bullish… In turning bullish, Slothower warned that the uptrend might only last for another quarter or so… | -0.5% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | + |
| 7/24/09 | …his portfolio still maintaining its 100% cash position…even though his long-term indicators have improved to the point that a new bull market is a distinct possibility, this bull nevertheless smells like a “skunk.” | 0.8% | 4.7% | 10.4% | 13.0% | – |
| 7/9/09 | He’s still 100% in cash. | 6.6% | 14.5% | 19.5% | 24.1% | – |
| 6/8/09 | Slothower is still in cash… “I see little to no economic signs to support this stock market advance. …Much of this advance has been through a lot of intervention and manipulation… July could still be a precarious month for the stock market bulls, since we will see Q2 earnings reported through most of the month, and they are bound to be bad.” | -1.6% | -6.3% | 6.8% | 15.7% | + |
| 5/4/09 | …Slothower is in cash…Slothower just seems sour on stocks. “…how many bear market rally attempts…before a real switch to a bullish trend takes place? It’s going to be more than two.” | 0.2% | 2.7% | 8.8% | 24.3% | – |
| 4/17/09 | He’s still in cash. | -0.4% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 38.7% | – |
| 3/26/09 | “The normal process of backing and filling has not been allowed to take a normal course… This kind of intervention often ends badly though, as no selling relief leads to a pressure point where eventual selling erupts into a volatile profit taking decline over a day or two that can quickly remove weeks of gains.” | 0.2% | 3.0% | 8.2% | 40.9% | – |
| 3/12/09 | …100% in cash… “I can’t see how the stock market can get a foothold here if the credit markets continue to deteriorate.” | 4.4% | 14.4% | 25.1% | 54.4% | – |
| 2/19/09 | “My advice for investors is to stay on the sidelines, protecting capital…” | -3.4% | -1.3% | 16.6% | 40.5% | + |
| 2/12/09 | “Cash…still is the best place to be with your serious money.” | -7.8% | -9.7% | 5.8% | 31.6% | + |
| 2/1/09 | “My position is that the market is currently basing in a strong sideways trading pattern…, making it a risky call to bet on either direction for an intermediate play.” …He’s in cash. | 5.4% | -13.6% | 6.3% | 28.8% | + |
| 1/26/09 | Slothower is 100% in cash… | -1.3% | -8.6% | 3.5% | 29.6% | + |
| 1/15/09 | “Has the stock market fully discounted a bad recession? My short answer is: yes, it has. If the recession is as bad as many predict it will be, I see the stock market staying in a trading range for several more months. …That would set the table for a bull market rally in 4Q09.” | -1.4% | -6.5% | 2.6% | 34.9% | – |
| 12/4/08 | He’s 100% in cash. | 3.4% | 10.6% | -19.1% | 29.2% | + |
| 10/26/07 | …it is a good idea to hold off any new buying. …Investors still need to be cautious…continue to hold your cash positions… | -1.7% | -7.0% | -11.8% | -39.4% | + |
| 8/31/07 | The new lows indicators [are] suggesting that we are at the tail end of an intermediate correction. …I have no problem shorting stocks, speculating that they are headed lower, but not at this point. Buying strong companies selling at a discount in a positive uptrend is the trading angle I am taking now. | -1.5% | 4.9% | -0.3% | -16.1% | + |
| 7/9/07 | Once the intermediate down cycle is completed in early July,…look for prices to continue to push higher. | 1.2% | -3.6% | 0.7% | -18.2% | – |
| 2/14/07 | Until we see investors willing to increase their tolerance for risk, …continue to hold high levels of cash… Hold off any new buying… | 0.1% | -4.7% | 3.2% | -7.3% | + |
| 12/27/06 | …the future looks dim. …the party is likely to be declared over and a long-awaited correction will be allowed to take root. | -1.2% | 0.1% | -0.3% | 1.4% | + |
| 12/20/06 | While it is obvious why Slothower is not advising any long positions now, he can’t advise short positions either…it is better to stand on the sidelines and wait…this stock market could plunge quicker than prices on Christmas cards on December 26. | 0.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 5.2% | + |
| 12/6/06 | A hard landing scenario is looking more like an expectation rather than a possibility. …once key technical support fails, a plunge in the stock market will follow – and that risk is dangerous right now. Slothower continues to recommend caution… | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.7% | 4.6% | + |
| 11/22/06 | Remain cautious and largely neutral. | -0.4% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | + |
| 11/7/06 | …a much better buying opportunity will present itself over the next few weeks… | 0.8% | 1.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | – |
| 10/12/06 | Slothower doesn’t see a lot of upside potential in the near future, but he does see a lot of risk right after the elections. …this is becoming a dangerous market and capital preservation should not be ignored in this pre-election euphoria. | 0.3% | 1.3% | 5.0% | 13.1% | – |
| 10/4/06 | …stay the course…win by not losing. After the sell-off, the stock market will tip its hand. | 0.0% | 1.3% | 5.0% | 15.9% | – |
| 9/26/06 | …the risk premium is extreme right now with the life of the rally very likely limited…continue to place risk management and capital preservation as a top priority. | -0.2% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 15.8% | – |
| 9/7/06 | …[expect] to see a weak September/October intermediate cycle. …be doubly cautious right now… | 1.7% | 4.3% | 9.3% | 13.7% | – |
| 8/17/06 | …don’t place a lot of bets on this recent 2-day rally. It could unwind just as quickly as it wound up. | -0.1% | 1.8% | 7.4% | 12.8% | – |
| 8/1/06 | Investors should remain largely defensive in more defensive type positions. | 0.0% | 2.6% | 8.4% | 15.5% | – |
| 7/13/06 | …be cautious and hold higher levels of cash as this short cycle corrects and tests key primary supports. | 0.6% | 2.0% | 8.9% | 24.5% | – |
| 7/7/06 | …[don’t] expect much from the market this summer and fall. …For now, cash is king. | -2.3% | 0.8% | 6.7% | 22.3% | – |
| 6/8/06 | …give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. | -0.1% | 0.7% | 3.4% | 20.5% | + |
| 5/18/06 | …[look] for a short-term bounce… Yet, at the same time the primary trend in the stock market is now very suspect. | 0.9% | -1.7% | 2.7% | 20.6% | + |
| 5/11/06 | The next few months should be exciting and profitable. Markets will react and over-react… | -3.4% | -5.3% | -3.1% | 15.9% | – |
| 3/30/06 | …we will probably see [a market top in April]. But…right now the bulls are in control, suggesting we could see new highs made in April. | 0.7% | 0.4% | -4.2% | 10.7% | + |
| 3/2/06 | …there is a high probability that stock prices will be higher over the next several months. | -1.3% | 0.4% | -1.5% | 8.0% | + |
| 2/21/06 | …indicators remain bullish even though the market has been under a consolidation phase. Slothower looks for this consolidation to end…as we get closer to March. | -0.2% | 1.7% | -1.2% | 13.0% | + |
| 1/24/06 | …the market remains in the camp of the bulls… | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 12.1% | + |
| 1/4/06 | …another intermediate correction is now underway as we enter January. | 1.6% | -0.7% | 2.5% | 10.9% | – |
| 12/15/05 | …he is bullish on the prospects of an end-of-the-year rally. | -0.2% | 0.5% | 2.9% | 12.2% | – |
| 12/9/05 | …oil prices will need to back off again to give the stock market a chance at breaking above the top of the trading channel. At this point one has to be skeptical. …the Fed must signal an end, otherwise stocks are likely to pull back in the very near future and begin the next intermediate down leg. …For a breakout and a sustainable rally the Fed must also continue to expand the money supply. That is just not happening. | 0.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 12.2% | – |
| 11/3/05 | It is at this stage…which bear markets develop. | 0.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 13.4% | – |
| 10/13/05 | Technically, all of the major indexes are strongly oversold, suggesting that support should likely hold and a move to the upside is the next short-term play. Don’t bank on it… There is just too much technical weakness to assume a short-term advance is around the corner. | 0.1% | 4.9% | 9.3% | 15.9% | – |
| 9/29/05 | …a potential plunge could be looming before us, if support fails to hold in light of worsening fundamentals. | -2.9% | -2.4% | 2.5% | 8.7% | + |
| 9/27/05 | …remain largely uncommitted to this market… | -0.1% | -2.0% | 4.4% | 9.9% | + |
| 9/6/05 | …the S&P 500 is heading to test its primary support at the monthly middle Bollinger Band line at 1,160…be very careful. | -0.2% | -3.0% | 2.6% | 5.3% | + |
| 7/26/05 | …the stock market primary trend is likely to continue to oscillate within intermediate cycles… Remain neutral. | 1.1% | -1.8% | -4.2% | 3.8% | – |
| 7/12/05 | …continue to hold high cash values…the stock market is close to a peak. | 0.6% | 0.6% | -2.2% | 1.1% | + |
| 7/7/05 | …prepare for trouble, and that means taking whatever action is necessary to protect your portfolios from any potential financial meltdowns. | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 6.2% | – |
| 6/13/05 | …intermediate–term cycles are positive, with room for more upside potential before we reach an overbought intermediate condition. All in all, Slothower is going into June more bullish than bearish. | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | + |
| 6/7/05 | At the moment, the trend remains in the camp of the bulls. | 0.6% | 0.1% | 1.7% | 4.6% | + |
| 5/25/05 | …the market is extremely short-term overbought, suggesting a correction could also develop…it should be able to maintain the bullish trend even if there is a fairly significant short cycle correction. …this is a time to make money. Remain invested. | 1.2% | 0.1% | 2.3% | 5.9% | + |
| 5/3/05 | Technically, the indexes have now become short-term overbought…the market is both technically and fundamentally set up to correct this week into next week. | 0.4% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 14.2% | – |
| 4/21/05 | …high energy prices are now beginning to weigh on the consumer. | -1.4% | 2.5% | 6.5% | 12.2% | – |
| 4/7/05 | The market is in deep trouble, even though it shows being oversold on an intermediate basis. What happens with crude oil prices in the short term will determine what direction the stock market takes. …play your hand defensively and retain high cash positions. | -2.4% | -1.7% | 0.3% | 8.9% | + |
| 3/29/05 | …an economic contraction probably isn’t too far off. | 1.4% | -0.8% | 2.2% | 11.6% | – |
| 3/4/05 | Over the next several weeks the dust will settle and easier trades will be at hand. For now, caution rules the day. | -1.8% | -3.3% | -1.5% | 4.6% | + |
| 2/15/05 | …what will break this trading market environment is the direction crude oil prices move…the stock market is poised to advance over the next few weeks… | -1.6% | -1.6% | -3.7% | 6.4% | – |
| 2/3/05 | …stay defensive… There will be “blue skies over the white cliffs of Dover” very soon. | 0.6% | 3.0% | -1.2% | 5.5% | – |
| 1/27/05 | …the market is technically weak. Remain defensive. | 1.3% | 2.5% | -1.5% | 9.0% | – |
| 12/23/04 | …an upward bias will persist into January and maybe beyond… Remain invested. | 0.1% | -3.4% | -3.2% | 3.8% | – |
| 12/6/04 | Slothower doesn’t think the stock market is going to go through the roof over the short term, but he is encouraged by the durability of this trend. This trend should last until mid-January… Any dips that occur over the next few weeks should be viewed as buying opportunities. | 0.7% | -0.5% | 2.9% | 5.6% | – |
| 11/26/04 | Bullish sentiment reigns at the moment and investors should take advantage. | 0.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 6.3% | + |
| 11/8/04 | …2005 will be a much better year than 2004 was for the stock market. | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | – |
| 11/2/04 | …stay defensive… It is essential, though, to have clarity on who our next President will be before the markets will make the next major move. | 3.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.9% | – |
| 10/8/04 | …staying on the bench can sometimes be your best, smartest move. | -1.2% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | – |
| 9/3/04 | Before this bull can charge ahead, the market needs to repair itself. | 1.1% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 11.0% | – |
| 8/9/04 | Until Slothower sees crude oil prices slide, he wants to keep his powder dry and hang out on the sidelines. | 1.3% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 15.4% | – |
| 6/23/04 | Things look extremely bullish right now…July will be an impressive breakout month… Now is the time accumulate stocks… | -0.3% | -5.1% | -1.3% | 4.2% | – |
| 6/8/04 | …a summer rally has begun, and investors should consider moving back toward the market…you are likely to see a far more potent and longer lasting rally than anyone expected. | -0.8% | -2.6% | -1.8% | 4.9% | – |
| 5/6/04 | …the fundamentals of the economy look very healthy… There is too much uncertainty in the world for the market to go higher. | -1.6% | 2.4% | -3.0% | 4.7% | + |
| 4/22/04 | …we are at the verge of a very sharp rally…get back into the saddle if you got bucked off your ride. | -2.3% | -4.1% | -3.8% | 1.0% | – |
| 4/6/04 | …conditions now exist that are similar to those seen in March 2003…this type of environment is the perfect backdrop for an extremely bullish stock market. | -1.7% | -3.0% | -2.6% | 2.9% | – |
| 3/16/04 | Slothower is looking for the next intermediate rally to begin any day…to propel prices higher between mid-March into early May…tak[e] a few more positions to replace some of the stocks that have been recently stopped out. | -1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 7.1% | + |
| 2/24/04 | The best course of action is defense right now. Having 50% in money market funds has been the prudent move in Slothower’s portfolios… | 0.9% | -4.2% | -4.0% | 6.3% | + |
| 2/10/04 | …play it safe right now and wait for this correction to end…the next key buying opportunity will come at the end of the month, providing intermediate support holds up. | 0.5% | -3.4% | -5.1% | 5.2% | + |
| 1/27/04 | …play your cards conservatively, with risk management as a key priority…the period of February into early March looks risky. Slothower is not forecasting a bear market but rather a correction in a bull market that will last for a few weeks… | -0.7% | 0.1% | -0.7% | 2.4% | + |
| 1/9/04 | …the economic expansion that began in 2003 will continue in 2004. | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 5.9% | + |
| 12/26/03 | …investors are becoming defensive, and that it has become tougher to make money in the market. | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 10.7% | – |
| 12/5/03 | We are still moving up, but it is clear that volatility risk is at a higher level…correction is coming. | 1.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 12.0% | – |
| 11/11/03 | …commotion will cause some wide swings in the market. | -1.2% | 2.4% | 10.6% | 13.1% | – |
| 10/13/03 | …the combination of the economy and the money supply will fuel the market heading forward…we are [not] going to get too much of a pullback. The bulls seem to be in command. | -0.1% | 0.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | + |
| 9/30/03 | …the primary trend is still bullish…begin inching your way back in the market…do a little nibbling at these levels…[do not] commit too much capital right now, because the first couple of weeks in October could be shaky. | 4.3% | 5.2% | 11.4% | 14.0% | – |
| 9/8/03 | …the market…bottomed on the last low, suggesting that it is now poised to rally in September…the Fed is rapidly expanding the money supply, a real bullish event. | -1.6% | 0.7% | 3.7% | 8.9% | – |
| 8/26/03 | By mid-week, Dennis is looking for the market to strengthen…the recent break out through the trading ranges suggests the market wants to head higher in anticipation of an improving economy. | 3.0% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 10.3% | + |
| 8/14/03 | …until the technical underpinnings improve the risk of correction makes investing a bit hazardous right now…we are now very close to seeing a reversal in the market back to the upside…hold tight and wait until the trend begins to move upward again. | 1.3% | 2.5% | 5.7% | 10.6% | – |
| 7/31/03 | …this market is just catching its breath after a moment of over exuberance. Dennis expects to see the market rally strong going into the end of the month. He expects to see the indexes close out the month of July at or near the highs for the month and for a stronger rally to develop in the month of August. | -1.6% | 1.8% | 5.7% | 10.9% | + |
| 7/15/03 | …wait to see how things pan out before making any big moves…short cycles are getting overbought again, so you can’t rule out another corrective impulse developing this week… | -1.2% | -1.6% | 3.8% | 10.0% | + |
| 7/1/03 | …the market is short-term oversold, which indicates that there should be an early July rebound over the next week or so. | 2.0% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 13.6% | + |
| 6/17/03 | Bottom line: the technical picture says we need to be invested. Until that changes, Dennis will stay with the trend. | -2.8% | -3.0% | 0.3% | 11.7% | – |
| 6/3/03 | …don’t discount the risk in the market… If you feel the urge to buy for fear of missing out, you are probably buying at a bad time… It’s better to lock in gains too soon than see a winner turn into a loser. | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 15.5% | – |
| 5/20/03 | Dennis Slothower is looking for a pullback that should last for a few weeks, and then we should be off to the races again, with higher highs in the cards. Momentum has been exceptional…when it is this strong, corrections tend to be mild and short-term affairs. | 3.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 18.9% | – |
| 5/5/03 | Slothower flashed the all-clear signal back in March and recommended a 100% position by early April… Still, intermediate risk favors a downturn during this period. | 2.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 20.2% | – |
| 4/22/03 | Dennis Slothower continues to be cautious while taking a guarded approach. There’s still a good deal of risk out there that must be worked out before committing money again. | 0.7% | 1.3% | 7.4% | 25.2% | – |
| 4/7/03 | …not only will the U.S. win, but the victory will bring about a positive change for this battered marketplace. Slothower’s bias long-term is bullish. | 0.6% | 5.6% | 14.1% | 29.5% | + |
| 3/24/03 | …the market has established its major lows and is now beginning to turn to the upside. The market is now placing its bet and the bet appears to favor the bulls. | -1.9% | 6.3% | 15.2% | 28.3% | + |
| 3/11/03 | …stay in a holding pattern until the market earns your investment again. The upcoming war with Iraq is a huge question mark… | 8.2% | 8.2% | 21.9% | 39.9% | – |
| 2/18/03 | …the market is very likely to continue to discount the outcome of the war. Once the market can see that the U.S. has been successful…some great stock buys will emerge. | -1.5% | 2.7% | 10.9% | 34.4% | + |
| 2/5/03 | Dennis Slothower recommends that investors remain very defensive… With one exception, he is fully in a cash position… | -3.0% | -1.7% | 10.8% | 35.1% | + |
| 1/9/03 | Now is the time to be ready to pounce on buying opportunities…2003 will be a beneficial one to investors… | -1.4% | -9.9% | -6.6% | 20.9% | – |
| 12/27/02 | Overall, Slothower wants you to be largely defensive. We are in a very challenging time with the market very subject to wild swings. Capital preservation should be your top priority. | 6.1% | -1.3% | -1.4% | 27.0% | + |
| 12/5/02 | With the recent market action of the past few weeks those charts are now displaying bullish patterns… 2003 should be a sweet year for the bulls. | -0.5% | 1.8% | -8.6% | 16.9% | + |
| 11/20/02 | Dennis Slothower wants stock investors to take a 50% stock allocation in the portfolios. He wants to minimize volatility risk by maintaining 50% in cash… | -1.1% | -0.3% | -1.3% | 14.9% | – |
| 9/12/02 | Over the last couple of weeks…market indicators have continued to sour. | -4.9% | -5.8% | 2.0% | 16.1% | + |
| 8/15/02 | …we are now very close to seeing the confirmation needed to help produce a buy signal, but we’re not quite there yet…it now looks like the market has made an important intermediate bottom. However, leadership is still not where it should be… | 3.5% | -4.2% | -5.1% | 7.8% | + |
| 7/10/02 | While I am not ready to declare this bear market dead yet, a number of key factors are rapidly developing that suggests the bulls will soon have plenty of ammunition to stage a major trend reversal…. I don’t think we will have to wait much longer…but until then we need to remain defensive. | -1.6% | -1.6% | -14.7% | 9.1% | + |
| 6/7/02 | …we are in a market that is clearly being dominated by fear and for the moment the bears have control of the stock market… Our high cash positions in the portfolios now have significantly reduced risk and that is where we should remain until we see a better market environment evolve. | -2.0% | -7.3% | -14.4% | -2.9% | + |
