As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the weekly commentary of John Mauldin in “Thoughts from the Frontline” since January 2001 (the earliest available). According to his web site: “John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. Each week, over 1 million readers turn to Mauldin for his penetrating view on Wall Street, global markets, and economic history.” He is President of Millennium Wave Advisors and past CEO of “the American Bureau of Economic Research, a publisher of investment newsletters and books.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- John Mauldin addresses many economic issues and quotes others liberally in his commentaries. He provides outlooks occasionally on stocks, bonds, housing, gold and other markets.
- It is relatively difficult to assess the accuracy of John Mauldin’s market projections because of equivocation and because he often uses distant forecast horizons (which reduce effective sample size). Even while offering some short-term and intermediate-term forecasts, he occasionally denies the feasibility of forecasting stock market behavior over periods as short as a year.
- John Mauldin’s forecast sample size is moderate in context, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of other experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: John Mauldin via johnmauldin.com/frontlinethoughts/ | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 9/10/11 | …think about raising that cash now. …I am not saying sell your conviction stocks. I have some and am buying more. But no index funds, no long-only, unhedged funds. | 3.6% | 2.9% | 6.2% | 25.6% | – |
| 8/20/11 | If we are headed into recession, and I think we are, then the stock market has a long way to go to reach its next bottom… | 7.7% | 3.8% | 8.2% | 24.8% | – |
| 7/2/11 | I would be very careful about any long-only trades, whether it be stocks or commodities or bonds. …there is less certainty than at almost any time I can remember. | -1.8% | -5.8% | -15.4% | 1.3% | + |
| 3/5/11 | Stocks are once again priced for perfection, but I worry that we live in an imperfect world. The markets are assuming a normal business cycle, but…we are not in a normal business cycle. It is the dénouement – the end of the debt supercycle, which distorts the normal financial physics that markets have come to rely upon. When markets get this distorted, whether to the upside or the downside, a correction of some sort is around the corner. | -1.0% | 1.7% | -0.8% | 4.3% | – |
| 1/7/11 | There are all sorts of indicators from any number of services that I follow that are telling us about the possibility of a short-term sell-off. But…the medium-term outlook following a drop should be a return to a bullish trend. | 1.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0 |
| 12/23/10 | I would urge some real caution. …there will be some opportunities to buy back in. | 0.1% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 0.7% | – |
| 8/28/10 | We are still in a secular bear market. Valuations, while lower, are still not at what could be called historical cyclical bottoms. Patience is the order of the day. | 4.1% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 16.2% | – |
| 6/4/10 | If we go back into recession, the market on average drops 40%. This is NOT a buy-and-hold market. It is a buy-and-trade or, for those with the skills, sell-and-short. | 2.5% | -3.5% | 1.4% | 20.7% | – |
| 5/7/10 | …there is at least a 50-50 chance of renewed recession, and with it a serious bear market…you should see this as a trader’s market and, with a few exceptions, be wary of being long only. | 2.2% | -4.4% | 1.3% | 22.2% | – |
| 1/15/10 | I would be very cautious about being long the stock market. | -3.5% | -3.2% | 4.9% | 12.8% | – |
| 10/16/09 | …I firmly believe we will see a double-dip recession within another 18 months (at the most). Stock markets drop on average about 40% in a recession. Adjust your portfolios accordingly. | -0.7% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 8.3% | – |
| 10/2/09 | …I think the party can limp along now. But there will come a point when the party is over… It will be an even worse crisis than the one we have just gone through… You have been warned. | 4.5% | 1.7% | 8.8% | 13.1% | – |
| 8/28/09 | …there is a recession in our future. …I am…maybe two years early, though I doubt it. …the stock market drops an average of over 40% during a recession. | -1.2% | 3.1% | 7.9% | 5.0% | – |
| 7/31/09 | …in the next six to 12 months we look for…pretty good asset and commodity markets… | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 14.2% | + |
| 7/24/09 | …I continue to think it is a bear-market rally… This rally does not seem to be the basis for a sustained bull market. | 0.8% | 4.7% | 10.4% | 13.0% | – |
| 5/8/09 | As the realization that the economy is not due for a robust recovery sinks in, I think the chances for another serious bear market test of the stock market lows will become increasingly high. | -5.0% | 1.4% | 7.3% | 26.1% | – |
| 5/1/09 | …bear market rallies are killed by disappointments and missed expectations. …the possibility of missed expectations at the end of the second quarter is high. It could be ugly. | 5.9% | 7.7% | 12.4% | 32.9% | – |
| 4/24/09 | …we are halfway through…a secular bear market. …we are going to…compressed price to earnings ratios just like we did in 1982. The world will be coming to an end and we’ll be moaning and groaning. …But what will happen? The stock market will be a coiled spring and we’ll have a bull market…. Until then, be careful. | 1.3% | 5.1% | 12.7% | 37.5% | – |
| 4/10/09 | …the next few years are going to be a very difficult environment for corporate earnings. …if you expect a major bull market to develop in this climate, you are not paying attention. | -3.1% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 41.1% | – |
| 3/13/09 | If you have a ten-year time horizon you probably can buy here and do OK. But I wouldn’t. I think this market is going to have more problems as we confront the real possibility that we will get some really poor earnings for the first and second quarters. …We could see a real bear market rally lure investors back in, just to crush their hopes this summer. | 1.6% | 11.2% | 24.9% | 54.1% | – |
| 2/27/09 | The day will come when we can start to put risk capital to work in the stock market. Today, look for ways to get absolute returns. | -7.0% | 7.1% | 23.4% | 52.2% | – |
| 2/13/09 | …this is not a market you want to buy and hold from today’s level. This is just far too precarious an economic and earnings environment. | -10.1% | -5.9% | 8.0% | 33.9% | + |
| 2/6/09 | There is another bull market in our future… But it is several years off. | -4.8% | -17.2% | 4.5% | 23.0% | – |
| 1/17/09 | We are in a long-term secular bear market. P/E ratios are going to decline over time to low double digits. | 5.0% | -3.3% | 3.4% | 35.6% | – |
| 1/10/09 | …we could see a tradable rally in the next few months, but at the very least test the lows this summer, if not set new lows. …I prefer to stand aside until the US economy has a clear direction… | -7.5% | -4.2% | -1.3% | 32.0% | 0 |
| 11/15/08 | We could see a very large rally the first quarter of next year….it will be a bear market rally… | 0.1% | 6.3% | -7.3% | 28.7% | – |
| 11/7/08 | Earnings are going to be under real challenge in most industries. This is going to become more obvious as time goes by, and is going to challenge whatever bear market rally can be mounted. | -6.2% | -4.5% | -6.6% | 18.0% | + |
| 10/27/08 | I think the market has more downside in its future… Am I personally a buyer today, like Buffett? No, …there is more pain to come in the market. | 13.8% | 1.0% | -0.4% | 25.6% | + |
| 10/10/08 | …we are close to a short-term bottom, but I think we will trade lower over time due to what I think are going to be poor earnings for the next few quarters. | 9.6% | 2.2% | -1.0% | 21.4% | + |
| 8/15/08 | It is not time to get bullish on stocks…we are going to test the recent lows and then watch the market go lower as the market gets disappointed in the earnings from the third quarter, and re-test those lows again. | -0.5% | -6.5% | -34.3% | -23.2% | + |
| 7/25/08 | …the risk is to the downside. …The current run-up is a bear market rally… It is a time to lighten up, if you have not already. | 0.2% | 0.7% | -27.8% | -22.5% | + |
| 7/18/08 | …I am bearish in the short term… | -0.2% | 1.4% | -28.0% | -24.3% | – |
| 7/11/08 | …another 10% drop in the market would take us only to the average bear market. A “9 handle” on the Dow seems quite possible, if not likely. …The risk is to the downside… | 1.7% | 5.3% | -20.5% | -24.8% | + |
| 6/27/08 | It would not be surprising to see the markets fall another 10%… While we should see some rallies in July and August, I think the trend is going to be lower, as the earnings projections are going to come down, and guidance is likely to be soft for many companies. | -2.0% | -1.2% | -5.4% | -27.8% | + |
| 5/16/08 | …I think this could be a very rocky summer for the markets in general. I look back to 2001-02 and find three bear market rallies of 20%. The market evidently did not know as much as it thought. …for those whose only real equity choice in the retirement plan of investment in a long-only index, I would find one of the other options in bonds… | -3.5% | -5.2% | -9.3% | -36.6% | + |
| 4/4/08 | We need a few more quarters of disappointment to really get to a bottom in the stock market. It could be a long summer. | -2.7% | 3.5% | -7.9% | -40.5% | + |
| 3/14/08 | …we are now at P/E ratios that are back up over 20, and going to 22 by the middle of the summer. …Real (inflation adjusted) returns of between 0 and 4% are more likely… | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | -38.3% | – |
| 2/15/08 | I find it hard to get enthusiastic about overall stock market returns at today’s valuations, and given the environment. | 1.6% | -1.4% | 5.5% | -42.3% | + |
| 2/8/08 | You need to use these bear market rallies to lighten up your long-only exposure, with the usual caveat that there are exceptions. …I would not want to be anywhere close to an index fund. And it is not too late to get out. There is still more downside in this bear. | 1.4% | -0.8% | 4.3% | -37.4% | + |
| 1/25/08 | With each announcement of a new massive write-off,…the market is going to be disappointed. …Couple that with earnings disappointments from companies with exposure to consumer spending, and you have a recipe for a bear market that could linger for awhile. | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | -34.3% | + |
| 1/18/08 | Unless we are in a brave new world, you don’t see capitulation in one month… Future earnings are going to be under stress as the economy slows. We will get a series of earnings warnings at the end of this quarter, which will further weaken the market. Rebounds are to be sold in this environment. | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.9% | -37.6% | + |
| 1/4/08 | It now looks like that lower stock market will show up in 2008. …But I expect to become bullish on the market sometime this summer, if not before. | -0.8% | -5.3% | -2.9% | -35.8% | + |
| 11/30/07 | …when we look out the window from the lofty market heights, we see a few fire trucks starting to gather, and those sirens are telling us that more are on the way. There is smoke coming from the building. Attention must be paid…be careful as you exit the building, there might be more than smoke. | 1.6% | -2.3% | -10.1% | -41.2% | + |
| 7/27/07 | …for the S&P 500… for September 15…1375. …For next year,…1375. | -1.8% | 0.5% | 3.9% | -12.0% | – |
| 5/19/07 | …this is not the environment that has been positive for the stock market in the past. …And as for a recession, are we there yet? Maybe, or at least close enough that we should fasten our seatbelts… | -0.5% | -0.8% | -6.9% | -8.6% | + |
| 4/28/07 | I simply do not understand the disconnect between the underlying weakening fundamentals of the economy and the rising stock market. Maybe it is different this time. But I am not wanting to play that sucker’s game. | 1.7% | 3.2% | -1.6% | -4.6% | – |
| 3/2/07 | …it would not be unusual for there to be even more volatility in the future, in BOTH directions, as the bulls and bears battle it out…we should expect it. If we do get a 8-10% correction, look for the sell side to start talking about how the economy is doing fine and the correction is now ready to be over. And look for a new bull run. I think it will fall short, and more volatility to the downside will ensue… | 1.1% | 2.7% | 10.3% | -3.9% | – |
| 1/12/07 | On a technical basis, there are a lot of reasons to suggest this market may go higher in the short term. …If you are looking at a longer time period,…then the stock market may indeed pose more of a challenge. | -0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | -4.0% | + |
| 1/5/07 | …I am forecasting a recession [in 2007]…it is hard to see how [the stock market] could shrug off a recession without so much as a real correction of at least 10-20%. | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.0% | – |
| 12/22/06 | I have not “missed” the bull market. I chose to avoid it… Sometime next year I expect to become bullish on the stock market, after what I think will be a correction. | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 4.8% | – |
| 12/15/06 | I simply don’t see the risk versus reward of the broad stock market at these levels, with all the warning signs we can see today. | -1.1% | 0.2% | -1.1% | 2.3% | + |
| 12/1/06 | …the stock market is going to be under considerable pressure next year. …Dow 9,000 is a real possibility, if not probability. | 0.3% | 1.5% | -0.1% | 7.9% | – |
| 11/10/06 | …this makes it a tough environment for stocks at some point in the not too distant future. | 1.2% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | – |
| 10/20/06 | …I still believe we are going to get to buy this market at much lower prices and better valuations. | 0.6% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 10.7% | – |
| 9/29/06 | I expect the stock market to be higher in 5-7 years than it is today. Maybe in less than 5. I simply think I can buy this market at a lower price at some time in the future. I expect to become…bullish during this next recession, or at the very least selectively bullish. But for now, I think it will pay to be patient. | 1.0% | 3.2% | 6.7% | 15.5% | – |
| 9/15/06 | …it is too early to throw in my bearish towel. | -0.4% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 15.1% | – |
| 9/8/06 | …we are going to get a chance to buy the market at a (probably much) lower price than it is at today. | 1.6% | 4.0% | 8.8% | 14.2% | – |
| 9/1/06 | …the probability of a recession is high and getting higher. I think a serious slowdown is a very high probability. And that is not a good environment for stocks in general… | -0.9% | 1.8% | 6.8% | 10.9% | – |
| 8/11/06 | I do not see this as an environment that is good for stocks. | 2.8% | 3.7% | 9.4% | 11.4% | – |
| 7/28/06 | …on Saturday night everyone gathered to wager on how the economy would fare over the next year. …The average call for the DOW next summer is 11,442, with the high being 13,000 and the low 8900. I was the low… | 0.1% | 1.8% | 8.1% | 15.1% | – |
| 7/14/06 | …a period of mild stagflation is upon us…the stock market is going to have issues… | 0.3% | 2.6% | 9.2% | 25.6% | – |
| 7/7/06 | …we are going to get to buy back into this market at a much lower place than 11,000 on the Dow. | -2.3% | 0.8% | 6.7% | 22.3% | – |
| 6/30/06 | …look at absolute-return types of investments and be very careful of long-only stock market investments. The time will come when it will be safe to get back in the water. But in my opinion, that is not today. | -0.2% | 0.1% | 5.4% | 20.5% | – |
| 6/23/06 | …investing in the broad stock market is particularly risky. …there is some real risk to the downside. | 2.1% | 2.0% | 5.9% | 21.0% | – |
| 6/9/06 | …we are going to get an opportunity to buy this stock market at a much lower level. | -0.1% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 21.6% | – |
| 5/5/06 | …we are still in a secular bear market…we are going to get a chance to buy this market at a much lower level than today’s close. | -2.6% | -4.7% | -3.4% | 13.6% | + |
| 4/7/06 | …caution is the order of the day. | -0.8% | 2.3% | -2.3% | 12.1% | + |
| 3/17/06 | I think consumer spending is going to slow significantly later this year. History suggests that the stock market will stumble when it does. That would make the current rally a sucker’s rally, or a real opportunity to make a strategic re-positioning of your portfolio. | -0.3% | 0.0% | -3.9% | 9.7% | + |
| 3/3/06 | …we are going to see a slowdown in the economy that latter part of the year. And it is one more reason why I think the broad equity markets are going to have a very difficult period. | -0.4% | 0.8% | -0.1% | 8.9% | – |
| 2/10/06 | We are getting signals that should make investors more cautious, yet they are becoming even less so! …Extremes of greed and fear are excellent contrarian indicators… | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 15.0% | – |
| 2/3/06 | …start thinking about taking a defensive posture on your stock market investments. …there are enough red flashing lights to give us cause for concern about the direction of the market in the coming quarters. …we will see an economic slowdown this year. | 0.2% | 0.9% | 3.8% | 14.6% | – |
| 1/27/06 | …the market ends up lower this year and potentially much lower in anticipation of a much slower economy later in the year. | -1.5% | -0.2% | 2.0% | 12.6% | – |
| 1/13/06 | …be somewhat cautious with your long only index funds in your investment accounts. We could certainly see a rally over the next few months, for a variety of reasons, but there are some real headwinds we will be facing in the second and third quarters. | -1.8% | -0.9% | 0.1% | 11.1% | + |
| 1/6/06 | By the end of this year, …we will see growth slow… Clearly, a slowdown will not be good for the US stock market. …This year I think the market…ends the year down, and by at least 10% or more… | 0.2% | -2.4% | 1.8% | 10.8% | – |
| 12/30/05 | Is it time to head for the hills yet on your index funds? Not really. The yield curve is not really telling us anything other than to pay attention at this time. | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 12.9% | + |
| 11/18/05 | …we will see a return of an actual bear market…as a slower growth period or an outright recession appears next year. Investors will be disappointed… That disappointment will serve as the catalyst for lower valuations and the recognition that a longer term secular bear market is still in effect. | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 12.6% | – |
| 10/21/05 | In any event, such a climate is not going to be a good one for the broad stock market. | 1.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 17.2% | – |
| 8/19/05 | …slowdown or recession, you do not want to be long the stock market, except for certain select stocks and sectors (like energy). This is the time to be cautious. There is another major bull market in our future. Save your powder. | -1.2% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 6.0% | + |
| 7/15/05 | If the Fed pauses, then we could see a nice rally in the stock market and then a retreat as the market becomes aware the Fed paused because of a softening economy. Caution…is the order of the day. …we are going to get to buy this stock market…in the middle of the next recession at a significant discount. But that might be several years. Or not. | 0.5% | 0.5% | -4.1% | 2.6% | + |
| 7/1/05 | …it will probably take two recessions (and thus a long time) to get to the ultimate bottom of the stock market… | 2.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 6.7% | – |
| 6/17/05 | Stock market valuations are easily within the highest 20% in terms of the last 100 years or so. When valuations are at today’s level, the stock market on average has returned 0% in real…terms. | -2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.9% | + |
| 6/3/05 | …the recent growth of the money supply has gone flat line. This is not a good scenario for economic growth or for the stock market. | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 5.0% | – |
| 5/20/05 | …it is quite possible we could go for the next five or even 10 years without a new high on the Dow or the S&P 500. | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 5.8% | – |
| 4/8/05 | …the ride for many years to come will be rough and rugged. | -3.3% | -0.2% | 1.4% | 8.9% | – |
| 3/11/05 | [This] scenario will not be a good one for the broad stock market or for bond funds. It’s just another reason why I believe we will be in a Muddle Through Economy for quite some time. | -0.9% | -1.0% | 0.1% | 8.6% | + |
| 2/25/05 | The dollar problems will initially be part of the catalyst for the next bear cycle… | 0.9% | -3.8% | -1.8% | 6.6% | – |
| 1/28/05 | I think we drift down from here with a last gasp rally later in the early spring, then into an ugly summer, …with a late year rally after tax loss selling by institutions…by October 31st… I expect the market to be lower at the end of the year. We do not see the resumption of a real bear market… | 2.7% | 3.3% | -2.4% | 9.4% | – |
| 1/14/05 | I…see another trading range year like last year, but this time with the pressure to the downside. | -1.8% | 2.2% | -3.5% | 8.5% | + |
| 1/7/05 | I don’t think we see the start…of the next major bear leg, although this year will mark the high for what I think will be many years. This will be a frustrating year for stock market investors….broad indexes and mutual funds are not the place to be. The market is a sideways to down market, with the risk to the downside as we get toward the end of the year… | -0.1% | 1.4% | -0.4% | 9.1% | – |
| 12/11/04 | …we have not yet seen the bear do its work of taking us well below the [historical P/E] mean. | -0.3% | -0.9% | 0.7% | 6.2% | – |
| 11/19/04 | I do not think earnings will be anywhere close to the forecasts… Earnings disappointments are typically a trigger for the beginning of a bear market. | 0.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 7.8% | – |
| 11/12/04 | This market is fully valued, by any historical standard. …Bull markets typically end with a short squeeze, as the bears get wiped out, so this market could move higher for no apparent reason…until earnings disappoint. …Sometimes they do ring a bell. | -1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.8% | + |
| 11/6/04 | …2005 looks like it will be ok for the first three quarters at the very least. We may be able to dodge the bullet until mid-to-late 2006… The market will probably anticipate a recession and turn into a real bear… | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | + |
| 10/8/04 | Conservative money should not be in broad market mutual funds. If you are a trader, you can play for the usual and potential post-election rally. But after that…, I would be on the sidelines. | -1.2% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | – |
| 9/10/04 | …I want to be a US stock market investor after the next bear market… | 0.4% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 9.5% | – |
| 9/3/04 | …there are no cheap indexes. A patient long term investor could wait until valuations drop below the long term average of 15 and begin to feather into the market. More aggressive value investors might like to wait for lower valuations on the indexes, or until the next recession as things get ugly. | 1.1% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 11.0% | – |
| 8/27/04 | …one day in the future that 8-10% compound returns (or more) will be possible. But that is not this day. | 0.5% | 0.2% | 6.7% | 9.1% | – |
| 8/13/04 | Perhaps the most we could expect over the next decade is a 3-4% return on stocks (including dividends). | 3.2% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 14.5% | – |
| 8/6/04 | …I see no upside in investing in a long only direction in US equities. We are going to be able to buy these same equities “on sale” in the future. Smart, value oriented investors might be better served by looking for other places for their money than the broad US equities market. | 0.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 15.7% | – |
| 7/23/04 | …we will see the economy soften in 2005 and perhaps…roll into a recession in later 2005 or in 2006. On average, the stock market drops 43% in a recession. That means a Dow in the 6,000 range. | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 13.3% | – |
| 6/4/04 | …just as the unwinding of the carry trade started quite rapidly and continued…, the return of the bear market will be quick. Keep your hand on the trigger. | 0.2% | -0.4% | -0.4% | 6.4% | – |
| 5/14/04 | …there is reason to be concerned about the market. …we are nowhere near maximum pessimism. We are also nowhere near anything which looks like value, at least for the broad markets. …I would not be at all surprised to see the Dow below 9,000. However, I also think (and fervently hope) that we will not see the lows of 2002. | -0.2% | 3.5% | -2.8% | 8.2% | + |
| 4/23/04 | We are currently in just the first few innings of a secular bear market…almost every sector of the markets that I look at is either toppy or weak. | -2.9% | -4.0% | -4.8% | 1.4% | + |
| 4/2/04 | It is quite possible this market has begun a renewed bear phase. Proceed with extreme caution. | 0.3% | -1.9% | -1.4% | 4.3% | + |
| 3/12/04 | …for the ten years following low interest rate environments such as we are in today, stock market returns are actually negative. Not surprisingly, the conclusion is that the best time to invest is when rates are high and the worst time is when rates are low. This is just one more reason to believe that we are in a long term secular bear market. …we are in for a rough period this summer…we are in the final innings of this rally. | -1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 6.0% | – |
| 2/27/04 | …the bull run is getting aged, market valuations seem high and a summer swoon, especially if there is any economic weakness, could be significant. | 1.0% | -2.0% | -2.6% | 5.7% | – |
| 2/20/04 | The Fed is not going to raise rates for far longer than the mainstream thinks. Certainly not this summer or before the fall elections. | 0.1% | -4.3% | -4.8% | 4.1% | – |
| 2/6/04 | …the markets could continue to move sideways to up, but I think we could see this year as a classic “Sell in May and go away” year. I would have fairly close stops on any trading accounts. | 0.3% | -0.2% | -2.5% | 4.3% | + |
| 1/30/04 | Today inflation is about as low as it can go. When that changes, as it will, whether it drops into deflation or rises back to higher levels, it will not be good for the stock market. … this is a sucker’s rally. | 1.0% | 1.6% | -1.5% | 5.5% | + |
| 1/9/04 | …a continuation of this rally is quite possible, as earnings should do well, and investors seem to be happy with the short-term. But the upside does not seem to me to be all that great. I would buy value and yield and have a trailing stop loss. | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 5.9% | + |
| 12/12/03 | This market can rise or go sideways for quite some time, as there is a great deal of stimulus in the economy. It is…the greatest sucker rally of all time. The next recession will knock the market down much lower than the last bear market. However, that is not in the cards for our near future. | 1.4% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 12.0% | – |
| 11/8/03 | There are reasons to think this bear market rally might have some more legs. But that does not take away from the fact it is a bear market rally. We are at nosebleed valuation levels… As the formidable Jeremy Grantham put it in this week’s Barrons, “This is a sucker rally.” | -0.3% | 1.1% | 9.4% | 13.1% | – |
| 9/26/03 | …we are in just the beginning stages of the current secular bear market. These cycles take lots of time, anywhere from 8 to 17 years. We are just in year three, and at nosebleed valuation levels. …just because stocks are in a secular bear cycle does not mean there are not plenty of investment opportunities in other markets… | 3.3% | 3.4% | 9.7% | 11.8% | – |
| 8/22/03 | …we are in a secular bear market. Bull markets never start from such valuations, not do they last. This market is for traders, not for long term buy and hold. …Four out of the last five years have seen a major turn in August. | 1.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 11.3% | – |
| 8/8/03 | I personally see a scenario where we bounce around but remain below trend for quite some time. | 1.3% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | – |
| 7/4/03 | …stocks are now richly priced for more than mere growth – the market will not tolerate disappointments. Stay tuned. | -0.1% | -3.9% | 1.6% | 10.8% | + |
| 6/27/03 | …a good strategy would be to start averaging in when the market values begin approaching a P/E of 10-12… | 2.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 15.6% | – |
| 6/20/03 | …long term index investors are likely to be disappointed. | -2.0% | -0.8% | 4.4% | 14.6% | – |
| 5/30/03 | A Muddle Through Decade is not the time to take large risks in the stock market. | 2.5% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 16.7% | – |
| 5/2/03 | …this market can drift sideways in large patterns, with significant bull runs, until the next recession. It is going to take something significant to shake up investors and create some selling pressure. Whenever that happens, we will see another significant drop in the markets. | 0.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 20.6% | – |
| 4/25/03 | …either this market has a long way to go on the downside, or it will go sideways for an even longer period of time… | 3.5% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 24.9% | – |
| 4/17/03 | …the stock market is not a fun place to be in a secular bear market…you should avoid index funds and most equity mutual funds… | 0.6% | 3.0% | 9.9% | 25.8% | – |
| 3/21/03 | …the Muddle Through scenario is the most likely, with risks to the downside… | -3.6% | 1.7% | 11.0% | 21.8% | – |
| 3/15/03 | Since…the long term trend is still down, this is not the time to jump in for a long term investment. This is a trader’s and stock picker’s market. It is not time to buy and hold. | 0.2% | 3.2% | 14.6% | 30.1% | – |
| 2/28/03 | We are probably in the third inning (of a nine inning game for foreign readers) of the current secular bear market cycle. …Could we see the market drop another 40%? The short answer is yes. …500 on the S&P and 5,000 on the Dow are both a stark and realistic possibility… I would not be invested long-term in the stock market… | -1.5% | 0.8% | 12.9% | 36.8% | – |
| 2/7/03 | We are not through this secular bear by a long shot. | 0.6% | -3.5% | 10.9% | 39.5% | – |
| 1/24/03 | …the market has a long way to go on the downside, and…this cycle will probably last for years. …Earnings are going to disappoint again this year…you can take that to the bank. …There is a recession in our future, and that is when we will see the next big leg down in the bear market. | -0.7% | -2.7% | 5.8% | 31.0% | – |
| 1/17/03 | Last week, I outlined why we could get a significant rally in the market, and this week suggest the opposite could happen. …I continue to think your investment strategy should not be a short term one-way directional play on the stock market, either up or down. | -6.0% | -6.3% | -0.9% | 26.9% | – |
| 1/11/03 | …we could see a significant rally, or sparked by a negative surprise, another bear year. This is a year to be cautious. Unless you are an astute trader, if you want to buy stocks to play a rally, buy value and dividend stocks from companies who can grow their dividends. Dividend stocks should do well this year, even if the market is down slightly. | -4.2% | -11.6% | -6.3% | 22.2% | – |
| 12/27/02 | …I am bearish. … the stock market is headed lower over the long term. | 6.1% | -1.3% | -1.4% | 27.0% | – |
| 12/20/02 | It is reasonable to assume that we will have several recessions over the next 15 years, so one could expect a long drawn-out secular bear. | -1.8% | -0.9% | -3.5% | 22.1% | – |
| 12/13/02 | …we are in a secular bear market. | 0.7% | 3.2% | -3.0% | 21.0% | – |
| 11/22/02 | The cheerleaders and the stock market will be wrong for the third straight time. This quarter’s GDP growth is likely to be below 1%. …the market will at some point resume its downward lurch. | 0.4% | -4.1% | -9.9% | 13.7% | + |
| 11/8/02 | …stock market returns…are going to be dismal for this decade. …We are still a long way from the bottom, both in absolute terms and in terms of time. | 1.7% | 1.1% | -6.6% | 18.3% | – |
| 11/1/02 | There will be a time when we look back fondly on 2.5% [GDP growth], probably in the last half of 2003. | -0.7% | 2.2% | -4.5% | 16.7% | – |
| 10/25/02 | Get out of [index funds]. Use this rally as an exit ramp. | 0.4% | 3.9% | -5.6% | 16.8% | – |
| 10/18/02 | …we will see an outright recession in the latter half of 2003. …Could we see another 40% drop? Absolutely. …the only lock is for a fourth straight down year. | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 16.5% | – |
| 10/11/02 | …we are in a long term secular bear, and the “bottom” is several years off. We will get lots of trading opportunities. | 5.9% | 4.9% | 11.0% | 25.3% | – |
| 10/4/02 | …sooner or later we get another recession and a resumption of the bear market. | 4.3% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 29.1% | – |
| 9/27/02 | That means more stock market upheaval; more bear market rallies and more ultimate disappointment. | -3.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 23.1% | – |
| 9/13/02 | We are in a secular bear market, and you should invest in ways that go with this trend, and not fight it. | -5.0% | -5.4% | 1.7% | 15.3% | – |
| 9/6/02 | Secular bear markets are not short-term phenomenon. …My guess is this will not be a short one. …This is not a time when a rising tide will lift all boats. | -0.5% | -12.2% | 2.6% | 13.1% | + |
| 8/23/02 | …we have come close to the lows of this secular bear market… The historical evidence is quite strong that we will see several more severe market drops, followed by bear market rallies, over the next few years. | -2.6% | -12.9% | -2.8% | 5.9% | + |
| 8/16/02 | …we are in a secular bear market. History suggests it will last for years. | 1.3% | -5.9% | -5.0% | 7.7% | – |
| 8/1/02 | …if it is not this year, then it is likely to be sooner rather than later that we dip back into recession. The next recession will take another large bite out of the stock market. | 2.4% | 3.6% | -0.3% | 9.1% | – |
| 7/26/02 | We will probably see more of these quick updrafts… | 1.3% | 11.2% | 5.1% | 15.8% | + |
| 7/19/02 | We will soon have a bear market rally (I hope), and I think it could be something to behold. …And after the rally, the market will sell off again. This cycle will keep repeating itself for quite some time. | 0.6% | 12.1% | 1.4% | 16.6% | + |
| 7/12/02 | …we will begin to maybe start talking about a bottom. But that is not this year, and probably not next year. | -8.0% | -1.9% | -15.7% | 7.9% | – |
| 7/5/02 | … the stock market will have problems over the next few years even as the economy recovers. | -6.8% | -15.6% | -16.3% | 1.3% | – |
| 6/28/02 | …the stock market will continue in a sideways to down trading range for the remainder of the year. | -1.3% | -8.8% | -13.6% | 0.4% | + |
| 6/21/02 | Can you time secular bull and bear markets? I think the answer is roughly yes. Picking the day or the month would be impossible, but coming within a year or so is quite reasonable. …History tells us one of two things: either this market has a long way to go on the downside, or it will go sideways for an even longer period of time… | 0.1% | -19.4% | -14.7% | -1.4% | + |
| 6/14/02 | …the stock market will drift sideways to down for a long time as earnings rise slowly… | -1.8% | -10.6% | -11.9% | 0.3% | + |
| 6/7/02 | …there are things which are bumping around in my worry closet at nights which are causing me some concern. | -2.0% | -7.3% | -14.4% | -2.9% | + |
| 5/31/02 | It is entirely possible that this market trades in a sideways to down pattern for a long time. But when the next recession comes, and it will, then you will see the market begin to drop. | -3.7% | -9.2% | -14.0% | -7.6% | + |
| 5/24/02 | …some of the money from foreign sources will leave the US, and that will put pressure on the US equity markets. | -4.0% | -9.9% | -11.2% | -12.4% | + |
| 5/17/02 | The best you can hope for is sideways. It is tough to make money in a sideways market. | -2.1% | -6.3% | -15.9% | -16.6% | – |
| 4/26/02 | Just a long, hot summer of sideways to down. | -0.3% | -0.2% | -22.1% | -14.8% | + |
| 4/19/02 | Broad market indexes like…will be in a sideways to down direction, trading in a channel that will not look pretty for several years. | -4.3% | -3.0% | -21.7% | -18.3% | – |
| 4/12/02 | …for the rest of this year, at least, it’s not likely to get much better or much worse. | 1.3% | -3.3% | -16.5% | -19.8% | – |
| 3/22/02 | …there are a lot of drags on the economy. Not enough to drag it down, but a lot of reason to be very skeptical… | -0.2% | -4.2% | -12.4% | -24.3% | + |
| 3/8/02 | …the Three Amigos are telling us the economic winds are no longer in our face. | 0.2% | -4.0% | -11.6% | -30.9% | – |
| 3/1/02 | …those timid souls who went to the sidelines with me in the fall of 2000 can [soon] start to think about equity investments again. | 2.9% | 0.4% | -6.3% | -26.7% | – |
| 2/22/02 | …the stock market is in a trading range — moving sideways, up a little, down a little, now you see a bull, now you see a bear. | 3.8% | 3.9% | -0.4% | -24.1% | + |
| 2/15/02 | …it is likely the stock market goes sideways, plus or minus 5 or 10 percent all year. The next real leg down will probably come with the next recession. | 0.5% | 6.0% | -0.5% | -24.2% | – |
| 2/8/02 | Aggressive investors with a few nickels to gamble and are bearish can buy a few…puts. But don’t bet the farm. | 0.7% | 6.3% | -2.1% | -25.3% | – |
| 2/1/02 | …we get “official” recovery in the last half of the year. | -2.3% | 2.1% | -3.4% | -24.8% | – |
| 1/25/02 | …it is quite possible for the stock market to mirror the economy: The Muddle-Through Market. Trading around a range for the entire year… | -1.0% | -2.1% | -3.7% | -23.7% | – |
| 1/11/02 | I…suggest staying out of the stock market, except for value stocks of solid companies with favorable P/E ratios. | -1.6% | -3.3% | -3.0% | -19.8% | + |
| 1/4/02 | …we should see a test of the market lows sometime this winter/early spring… Then will come the bounce. …The broad indexes…should end up within 5% of where we started… I am waiting for my “Three Amigos”…to turn positive to signal a return to the stock market. | -2.3% | -7.0% | -4.2% | -22.4% | – |
| 12/14/01 | I think it likely we get one more real test of the September lows. …this seems like a sucker…rally to me. It also looks like it could crumble. | 1.9% | 0.4% | 3.8% | -20.7% | – |
| 12/7/01 | …short-term traders should take some profits…and long-term investors should wait until the Three Amigos of the NAPM Index, capacity utilization and junk bonds tell us a recovery is in our future. | -3.0% | -0.3% | 0.9% | -21.9% | + |
| 11/30/01 | …my expectation [is] for the market to move lower. | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | -19.5% | – |
| 11/26/01 | …wait until the Three Amigos tell us when to get back in… | -2.4% | -0.7% | -4.2% | -18.9% | + |
| 11/9/01 | Things are going to get worse before they get better. | 1.6% | 1.5% | -0.7% | -21.2% | + |
| 11/2/01 | …in a few months, as the wind shifts from a recessionary direction and starts to blow in the direction of growth, there will be some real opportunities for large profits. | 3.0% | 5.3% | 0.7% | -15.0% | – |
| 10/26/01 | …I remain cautious about this stock market. I hear that bear market growling. | -1.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | -19.4% | + |
| 10/19/01 | …the stock market has more downside. | 2.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | -16.5% | – |
| 10/12/01 | …the potential risk is higher than the potential reward…it is time to keep our powder dry. | -1.7% | 2.4% | 4.9% | -21.2% | + |
| 10/4/01 | It is still not safe to get out of the fort… | 2.6% | 1.6% | 8.9% | -25.3% | – |
| 9/28/01 | Now is NOT the time to jump back in the market, except on a very select value basis. …We are going to get even better opportunities | 2.9% | 3.6% | 11.2% | -20.5% | – |
| 9/21/01 | …the recession will be longer and deeper. …When individuals start selling…, the market could go lower. Much Lower. …I cannot see how it won’t come. …I advise caution. | 7.8% | 12.8% | 19.0% | -13.1% | – |
| 9/6/01 | …we will see a rally later this year, as the economy hits bottom. Then, after what will seem like a return to the good old days, investors will notice that profits haven’t rebounded. Stocks will be close to all-time highs on a P/E value basis. THEN we will see the next leg of the bear market. …Soon, I hope to be able to write that it is time to venture back into the markets. | -8.2% | -0.8% | 3.0% | -19.5% | + |
| 8/29/01 | …there is still a real risk for another 10% drop from here. I personally remain short the markets. | -3.7% | -6.9% | -1.6% | -21.4% | + |
| 8/24/01 | The stock market is up today, and is likely to stay that way through next week…a good rally to trade, good to sell into, but there is nothing that makes me want to leap back into this stock market. | -4.3% | -12.4% | -4.8% | -24.6% | – |
| 8/17/01 | …I expect the next few months to be rough…be patient. …we are going to get a great buying opportunity. | 2.0% | -13.6% | -1.7% | -19.5% | + |
| 8/10/01 | Now we wait, looking for The Bottom. | -2.4% | -12.7% | -4.3% | -21.2% | + |
| 8/3/01 | …our Three Amigos don’t look all that friendly. | -2.0% | -6.7% | -7.9% | -27.2% | + |
| 7/26/01 | I suggest patience. …we should see the stock market bottom sometime this year. …I am entirely short my equity portfolio and long US long-term bonds. | 1.5% | -1.5% | -10.4% | -30.6% | + |
| 7/13/01 | …an increasing number of investors are going to throw in the towel and decide to “wait it out”. …the trend is still downward. It is not safe to go back in the stock market forest. | -0.4% | -2.0% | -9.7% | -34.4% | + |
| 6/30/01 | …we have not yet seen the worst. | -4.5% | -1.7% | -13.5% | -25.0% | + |
| 6/22/01 | The stock market is still VERY risky, and I expect to see it drift lower for almost the entire summer, albeit in fits and spurts… I am still bullish on bonds. Patience and caution remains the name of the game. | -0.1% | -4.4% | -17.8% | -22.6% | + |
| 6/8/01 | Those who invest today think they are being rational, and would think I am a foolish scaredy cat… I shake my head and marvel at their faith. | -4.0% | -6.6% | -12.5% | -18.0% | + |
| 6/1//01 | …this market is a dangerous one…you are fighting History if you are in this market as a long term buy and hold investor. | 0.3% | -1.9% | -8.9% | -19.6% | + |
| 5/25/01 | Maybe we will see recovery late this year, but we still have problems to work through first. | -0.8% | -4.8% | -9.1% | -17.8% | + |
| 5/19/01 | …there is ample reason to be nervous… | -3.4% | -6.8% | -11.5% | -19.3% | + |
| 5/7/01 | …it is definitely NOT clear we are out of the woods, and if we are not, the risk to your stock portfolio could be great. …to be invested in the market today is fighting history. | -1.2% | 0.5% | -3.9% | -13.6% | + |
| 4/27/01 | …not yet, fellow traveler. …read the warning signs. They keep telling us to watch out for bear traps. | 1.1% | 1.2% | -4.0% | -16.2% | + |
| 4/23/01 | …the fundamentals suggest to me that the stock market will keep dropping. We remain short. | 2.1% | 6.9% | -1.1% | -11.3% | – |
| 4/12/01 | You have been given a classic bear market rally opportunity. Do not miss this one, as I think this is the last train out. | 5.0% | 5.5% | 2.1% | -7.0% | + |
| 4/6/01 | Whatever move up we see in the next few weeks is a bear market rally. …Last Wednesday was not the bottom. | 4.5% | 11.8% | 5.5% | -0.2% | + |
| 3/30/01 | …sell any spikes. Get out of…any stock that is not a true value stock and part of your long term core holding. | -2.7% | 9.1% | 5.7% | -2.6% | + |
| 3/16/01 | We are nowhere near any numbers that look like capitulation. | -0.9% | 3.6% | 6.0% | -1.0% | + |
| 3/13/01 | …we are getting ready to enter a bear market in the broad markets. The trend is now down. Any upward movements will be bear market corrections. …now is the time to hunker down and reduce your exposure to the stock market. | -4.6% | -2.7% | 4.7% | -3.7% | + |
| 2/28/01 | If you are on the sideline, I would stay there for another month. The downside risk is not worth the upside potential, and you won’t miss much. | 1.8% | -7.4% | 2.3% | -6.1% | + |
| 2/16/01 | I look at our sentiment numbers, and they tell me this market wants to go up. | -2.6% | -12.2% | -1.0% | -14.7% | – |
| 2/9/01 | …I am not too worried about a large drop any time soon in the NYSE or S&P 500, and expect them to rise from here. | -1.0% | -8.9% | -4.5% | -16.5% | – |
| 2/2/01 | …we will continue to see a pullback… But I see nothing in the sentiment data which suggests to me this leg of the market rise is through. This drop is just one of consolidation. If you are thinking of putting some more money in the market, now would not be a bad time, though I continue to feel that we will see a real drop in the market some time in the future. | -2.6% | -7.1% | -7.5% | -17.9% | – |
| 1/26/01 | …the market will postpone worrying for a few months… Even though…I have to be bullish…, I am still wondering whether this may be a bear market rally. …The risk is to the downside and not the upside. | -0.4% | -7.2% | -8.9% | -19.6% | – |
| 1/19/01 | We are currently long… It may be some time before we pull our horns in… Let’s enjoy the ride. | 0.9% | -4.7% | -6.6% | -18.0% | – |
| 1/12/01 | I continue to counsel caution for now. | 1.8% | 0.0% | -10.2% | -14.4% | + |
| 1/5/01 | So why am I still long? Because I have a system. …Buy and hold is not a system. | 1.6% | 4.2% | -11.3% | -11.7% | + |
