We evaluate here the weekly “Ahead of the Curve” columns in SmartMoney.com since August 2001 (the earliest available). The author, Don Luskin, is the Chief Investment Officer for Trend Macrolytics LLC. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Don Luskin’s market outlook generally addresses the intermediate and long terms. His expectations for the market were mostly on-target with respect to overall market direction for 2001-2003, if somewhat early in calling the bottom. He has been somewhat over-optimistic for 2004-2007 and significantly over-optimistic in 2008..
- His valuation model seems Fed Model-like and appear unuseful for short-term or intermediate-term forecasts.
- Don Luskin specializes in the implications of politics for the economy. He is especially interested in the potential effects of elections and government actions and inactions on the stock market.
- Don Luskin’s forecast sample is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Don Luskin via SmartMoney.com | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 10/19/10 | …I’m going to make the case that stocks could be at all-time highs by this time next year. …And even if stocks don’t make it all the way, you won’t want to miss it even if they make it halfway. | 1.7% | 1.1% | 11.1% | 4.2% | 0 |
| 10/12/10 | With four out of five of my key jobs indicators looking good, I had to be a buyer of stocks on the dip Friday morning. | -0.3% | 4.2% | 8.5% | 2.9% | + |
| 10/5/10 | At the next FOMC meeting, the Fed either will do nothing in the way of additional quantitative easing or will do something extremely modest in scope. …after we spend a day or two absorbing the disappointment, stocks will move to new recovery highs. …it will be a buying opportunity. | 0.8% | 3.2% | 9.6% | 0.4% | + |
| 9/3/10 | …it’s safe to say the correction in stocks is over. …Today’s low P/E ratios are like a fire alarm, but they’re signaling you should get in, not out. | 1.6% | 5.1% | 10.6% | 8.5% | + |
| 8/27/10 | …stocks should be accumulated at these levels. …With stocks correcting as earnings estimates are rising, they are an attractive value proposition. | 3.7% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 13.9% | + |
| 8/6/10 | Stocks have made it half-way back to the April highs. I think we’ll make it all the way back this year. …At this point, all that it would require is a roughly 8% rally. | -3.8% | -2.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | + |
| 7/16/10 | I like stocks here as a short-term speculative play… | 3.5% | 1.4% | 10.6% | 24.6% | + |
| 7/9/10 | …with stocks as cheap on a forward earnings basis as they’ve been since late March 2009, I think it’s time to start getting back into equities again. | -1.2% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 21.9% | + |
| 7/2/10 | …stocks [are] the best value they’ve been since March, 2009. I’ve been bearish for a while now, but I’m beginning to think it’s time to start buying again. | 5.5% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 31.0% | + |
| 6/25/10 | We may have not put in the lows in this correction quite yet, but we’re close. But if you successfully call the bottom, don’t get carried away. Get ready right away to call the next top. It won’t be far away. | -5.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 20.4% | + |
| 5/28/10 | Stocks are now down a bit on a year-to-date basis — about 1% as measured by the S&P 500. I’ll bet by year-end 2010 they’ll be up about 10%. | -3.6% | -4.4% | -3.9% | 20.7% | + |
| 5/7/10 | I’m not suggesting you become bearish. I’m just suggesting you become cautious. Let Thursday be a warning to you. We’re not out of the woods yet. | 2.2% | -4.4% | 1.3% | 22.2% | + |
| 4/9/10 | …it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to end it not much higher than where we are now. Year-to-date the S&P 500 has returned about 6.6%, including dividends. Maybe we get 10% or 12% this year. | -0.2% | -2.9% | -10.4% | 10.9% | + |
| 4/2/10 | …now capitalism is a crime… Don’t expect stocks to go up much in such a world. At least, not American stocks. | 0.8% | -1.2% | -13.5% | 12.2% | + |
| 3/5/10 | Basically, the S&P 500 has done little over the last four months. It wouldn’t surprise me if that inertia persisted for the rest of the year. | 1.0% | 4.5% | -3.2% | 16.1% | – |
| 2/26/10 | …more correction and consolidation for stocks. | 3.1% | 6.2% | -3.3% | 18.3% | – |
| 1/29/10 | So thank God for Ben Bernanke. He’ll pull us through with zero interest rates… That should be enough to give stocks at least a moderately positive year, after we endure a healthy correction. | -0.7% | 4.1% | 12.4% | 21.8% | + |
| 1/8/10 | …I still think stocks are due for a rest. …this coming earnings season may…trigger the correction I’ve been waiting for. | -0.8% | -6.5% | 4.3% | 11.3% | + |
| 12/4/09 | I still think stocks are due for a nasty correction here. | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 11.1% | – |
| 10/9/09 | In the short-term I think stocks are overbought and due for a correction. …When that correction…runs its course, there will be a buying opportunity… | 1.5% | 2.0% | 6.9% | 9.9% | – |
| 10/2/09 | Are stocks finally beginning to correct the monster rally off the March bottom? I think so…this correction I expect will just be a correction. | 4.5% | 1.7% | 8.8% | 13.1% | – |
| 9/25/09 | …stocks are overdue for a sharp correction. Maybe we’ve already seen it starting with the two big down days we had on Wednesday and Thursday. But it will only be a correction. | -1.8% | 2.2% | 7.3% | 9.6% | – |
| 9/18/09 | So can this rally continue? Impossible, I say. | -2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 6.2% | – |
| 8/7/09 | I’m not bearish here. I think stocks need a good correction, and I think they’ll get one. And then I think they’ll move somewhat higher. But I absolutely do not think that…we can not expect stocks to surge back to the former highs and beyond… | -0.6% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 7.8% | 0 |
| 7/24/09 | …in the short term, stocks might have a little more upside. But my guess is that the rest of the summer will be fairly quiet. | 0.8% | 4.7% | 10.4% | 13.0% | – |
| 7/10/09 | So I’m not a bear. I say buy the dips. Try to catch the bottom of the trading range. …the March bottom in stocks will likely hold. But don’t overstay your welcome. Sell the rallies. | 7.0% | 14.6% | 20.3% | 24.6% | – |
| 6/12/09 | If you had to say “in” or “out” on stocks now, I’d say “in.” …there’s more upside than downside. | -2.6% | -4.3% | 10.3% | 17.8% | + |
| 6/5/09 | …call me a cautious bull. …stocks won’t make new lower lows in this cycle. …there’s more room on the upside than on the downside. | 0.7% | -6.3% | 5.8% | 12.3% | + |
| 5/22/09 | …sometime in the next year…[t]he market will drive Treasury bond yields higher and higher… That will surely trigger a massive drop in stocks… | 6.3% | 0.9% | 13.6% | 20.4% | – |
| 5/8/09 | …my guess is that the economic recovery off that bottom will be weak, and that stocks won’t even get close to their old highs. | -5.0% | 1.4% | 7.3% | 26.1% | + |
| 5/1/09 | …this all makes me feel even stronger in my conviction that we’ve seen the lows in the stock market. I remain skeptical about how much upside there is… | 5.9% | 7.7% | 12.4% | 32.9% | 0 |
| 4/17/09 | …the bottom is in, but the upside doesn’t look so great. | -0.4% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 38.7% | – |
| 3/27/09 | Is there any more upside from here? I think there is, but I’m not getting carried away about it. There are still a lot of very worrisome factors that…will end up capping the upside. Even if we don’t end up ever making new lows…, the lack of a really viable upside from here makes this rally not all that attractive a proposition. | 3.3% | 4.8% | 12.8% | 43.3% | – |
| 12/19/08 | Stocks are so cheap they’re priced as though the economy was going into a depression. But it’s not… That means stocks really are a buy. | -2.1% | -6.8% | -7.3% | 26.2% | – |
| 12/12/08 | Yes, times are tough. But stocks are cheap enough to compensate for that. | 0.9% | -4.2% | -14.3% | 26.1% | – |
| 11/26/08 | I think the rally now has a lot further to go. | -4.8% | -2.1% | -17.2% | 24.9% | – |
| 11/14/08 | …we’re at the end of this bear, or close to it. | -8.4% | 4.6% | -9.6% | 27.1% | – |
| 10/3/08 | … It will take several weeks at least for the plan to actually start being implemented. …So we could still have some rocky times ahead….It would definitely make this a moment where you want to start building a long position in the stocks that have been battered the worst in this panic. | -18.2% | -12.1% | -15.2% | -3.8% | – |
| 9/5/08 | Stocks are definitely cheap here. If there’s more downside, it won’t be much. | 0.8% | -14.9% | -29.9% | -16.8% | – |
| 8/22/08 | With all the pessimism out there — and with reality nowhere near as bad as the pessimistic majority seems to believe — how can stocks not be a bargain? | -0.7% | -8.0% | -37.6% | -20.4% | – |
| 8/8/08 | …stocks are attractive. And they are cheap. | 0.1% | -5.5% | -26.5% | -22.4% | – |
| 7/25/08 | I have to believe that stocks are cheap here, since it seems they are being priced by people in the grips of these exaggerated fears. | 0.2% | 0.7% | -27.8% | -22.5% | – |
| 7/18/08 | There’s a line out there between pessimism and paranoia, and I’m afraid we’ve crossed it in the wrong direction. Does that mean stocks have gotten too cheap? Why, yes, it does. | -0.2% | 1.4% | -28.0% | -24.3% | – |
| 7/11/08 | So my best bet for the future, at least the next couple of months, is that there probably isn’t really much room on the downside at this point. At the very least, stocks are due for a very tradable upside correction. | 1.7% | 5.3% | -20.5% | -24.8% | + |
| 6/6/08 | …this week I’ve had a couple of experiences that have really reinvigorated my conviction that everything will be okay. What was it? Simple — I got a couple of good close-up looks at the bearish case. When the bearish fanatics are out in force promoting the end of the world, it’s time to buy. | 0.0% | -6.4% | -9.1% | -30.6% | – |
| 5/30/08 | If Obama is elected, the next move in stocks is up. As his election becomes increasingly certain, stock prices will move higher and higher. …after Obama has attained approval ratings as unsustainable as George W. Bush’s right after 9/11, the wheels will come off…we’re going to have a very important selling opportunity in the first quarter of next year. | -2.8% | -8.6% | -8.5% | -33.5% | – |
| 5/16/08 | …there’s still lots of opportunity to take advantage of the recovery from the credit crisis and the recession that was never a recession. …At some point, it will be time to sell, and probably stay out of the market for several years… | -3.5% | -5.2% | -9.3% | -36.6% | – |
| 4/18/08 | The worst is over. It’s more than over… The economy marches on. And the stock market is going to keep marching right along with it. | 0.5% | 2.6% | -9.4% | -39.3% | – |
| 4/4/08 | …the bottom is in for stocks, and they should gradually recover from here, sneaking up a little bit at a time, with the usual back-and-forth from day to day and week to week — until before you know it, you’ll wake up some morning and we’ll be back at the highs of last October. | -2.7% | 3.5% | -7.9% | -40.5% | – |
| 3/21/08 | …it’s time to buy all the stuff that everyone’s been selling during the credit crisis. …Stocks. And yes, financial stocks. | -2.0% | 1.9% | -0.5% | -39.7% | – |
| 2/8/08 | Looks to me like Obama is on a run here — and I think he’s likely to bring the stock market along with him for a while. | 1.4% | -0.8% | 4.3% | -37.4% | – |
| 2/1/08 | …I don’t think we’re in recession, and I don’t think we’re heading into one. But even if I’m wrong…the worst case for stocks in a recession isn’t that bad. | -4.6% | -4.9% | 1.3% | -40.4% | – |
| 1/25/08 | …you won’t regret owning stocks if you can just live through some violent shocks … | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | -34.3% | + |
| 1/18/08 | I can’t say when this panic we’re in will burn itself out, but I think it could be a matter of days. If this thing goes the way they usually do, it will end with one spectacular down day… You’ll be amazed how good everything suddenly looks the day after that bottom. | 2.2% | 2.6% | -6.2% | -37.6% | – |
| 1/11/08 | …stocks are dirt cheap on a valuation basis vs. rock-bottom bond yields. That tells me that…the coming recession could be a winner for stock investors…the coming not-recession could be even better. | -5.4% | -3.7% | -4.9% | -39.9% | – |
| 11/16/07 | For stocks to come back to their normal relationship with bonds, they have to rally about 45%. True. That’s how cheap they are…when everything in me says “sell,” that it’s time to buy. Or at least very close to that time. | -3.6% | -0.3% | -7.5% | -44.7% | – |
| 10/5/07 | The Fed can’t gun the engines indefinitely, and that’s already a long-term risk. Add tax hikes and protectionism…and you have a pretty miserable-looking 2009 ahead. But for now, we’re right where we want to be in the presidential election cycle for stocks. Make your money now. | 0.3% | -3.6% | -9.4% | -36.8% | – |
| 9/21/07 | Buy stocks, but be ready to bail when the inflation threat gets so obvious the Fed will have to act. | 0.1% | -1.3% | -4.8% | -22.3% | – |
| 9/7/07 | I still love stocks here. | 2.1% | 6.8% | 2.2% | -15.2% | + |
| 8/31/07 | …stocks will be at new all-time highs by the end of the year. | -1.5% | 4.9% | -0.3% | -16.1% | + |
| 8/24/07 | The really smart investors are buying, not selling… Buy stocks on dips. There will plenty of dips while the panic plays itself out. But the bottom is in, and I think you can buy with confidence now. | -0.4% | 2.6% | -4.2% | -13.4% | – |
| 8/3/07 | Stocks will have to live with a little uncertainty… But the credit markets will repair themselves and stocks will be at new highs before you know it. | 1.4% | 3.9% | 8.1% | -10.0% | + |
| 7/27/07 | Stocks have dropped in response to heightened uncertainty, not actual deterioration of anything in the real world… When that uncertainty is resolved, stocks prices will quickly rise…if you believe as I do that you get paid for taking risk, then take some. And get paid. | -1.8% | 0.5% | 3.9% | -12.0% | – |
| 7/6/07 | …the bears…are in for another big disappointment here. | 1.4% | -4.1% | 0.6% | -18.7% | – |
| 6/29/07 | Through the end of the year, it’s going to be great for stocks…making new all-time highs through the end of the year. …But as the year gets on, you’ll need to have your eye on the seat you want to grab. Because the music will stop. | 1.9% | -3.2% | 1.9% | -16.1% | – |
| 6/22/07 | I’M STILL BULLISH ON stocks…stocks are a better bargain today…relative to bonds…than they have been at almost any time over the last quarter century… | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | -12.0% | – |
| 6/8/07 | this move down in stocks is going to be nothing more than a correction. …Stocks will quickly recover and make new highs. …let’s be looking for an entry point in stocks when this brief correction has run its course. | 1.7% | 0.2% | -1.9% | -11.4% | – |
| 5/18/07 | …what’s to stop the S&P 500 from making new all-time highs literally any day? | -0.5% | 0.7% | -7.3% | -8.7% | + |
| 5/11/07 | For stocks, it’s time for a little rest. …But it shouldn’t take much patience. The economy’s going to keep on growing and stocks are going to keep on floating higher. …There will come a time to sell, and it could come yet this year. I’m a bull, but a cautious one. For now, though, the game is the same as it’s been for the last four years of this bull market: Buy the dips. | 1.3% | -0.7% | -3.3% | -6.3% | – |
| 4/27/07 | …sometime in the next six to 12 months — the Fed will start raising interest rates to sop some of that liquidity up, and bring inflation down. If history is any guide, that could lead to a sharp slowdown. But that’s over the horizon. For now, the direction is clearly up, up and away. | 0.8% | 1.6% | -0.8% | -5.7% | + |
| 4/13/07 | Stocks have been in a correction since mid-February… I call it a buying opportunity. …Thanks bears — for keeping stocks cheap for the rest of us. | 2.2% | 3.5% | 6.5% | -6.1% | + |
| 3/30/07 | I’m not sure the whole correction is over. …But it’s got to be at least half over. …there’s going to be enough liquidity to keep the economy generating the earnings that keep stock prices moving higher. Within three months, higher they will be. …At some point, …the Fed …will have to come to terms with the worsening inflation situation. And when it does, …the bull market in stocks will end. | 1.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | -3.6% | + |
| 3/16/07 | Stocks are cheap again. ,,, I’m operating on the assumption that the stock market decline of the last several weeks is just a correction…I’m starting to gear up to call a bottom at some point here. | 3.5% | 6.1% | 9.8% | -6.4% | + |
| 2/23/07 | …for the short term, I’m actually betting against my own model. I know that stocks are cheap, taking the long view. But in the context of the last couple of years when stocks have been persistently cheap, I see them as relatively rich. | -4.4% | -0.9% | 4.9% | -4.9% | + |
| 2/16/07 | For the time being, the bull charges forward. I think it will stumble in coming months when Bernanke finally starts talking about having to raise rates. So stay on your guard. But stay in the game. | -0.4% | -3.1% | 3.9% | -7.8% | – |
| 2/9/07 | I continue to be bullish on stocks… If you don’t trust your ability to time events closely, take something off the table now and put it in cash. I’m going to try to hang in there till the last possible moment. I still think there will be a better moment to sell. | 1.2% | -4.2% | 4.7% | -4.9% | + |
| 1/19/07 | As the year plays out, investors are going to…ask…whether this new Democrat-controlled Congress might just be the end of the world. It’s five minutes to midnight right now. Don’t fall asleep. | -0.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | -6.4% | + |
| 1/5/07 | I’m not forecasting gloom and doom. …I’m forecasting a normal world in which there is real risk for investors, and investors get paid to take that risk. But based on today’s excessive fearlessness, a little bit of normality might come as a shock. | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.0% | + |
| 12/29/06 | There will be a top in stocks in 2007. Resolve not to get sucked in! | -0.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | -0.5% | + |
| 12/15/06 | …by this time next year, [t]he economy will slow and stocks will fall. …stay invested as long as you can. But be ready at any moment… You don’t want to cut the timing that close? Then start selling some stocks gradually. Let the bids come to you. No hurry. | -1.1% | 0.2% | -1.1% | 2.3% | + |
| 12/1/06 | …stocks can continue to rise in the short term. New highs are definitely in the cards. But by the end of the first quarter, … the Fed [has] to start raising interest rates again. Before it’s over, rates will be high enough to damage the economy and the stock market. | 0.9% | 1.5% | -0.1% | 7.9% | – |
| 11/3/06 | Can P/E multiples get much lower? Maybe, but not much. So there’s nothing to be gained by betting on recession, and therefore little to lose by betting against it. But there’s plenty to be gained by betting on growth. If the economy re-accelerates from here, earnings will grow and stock multiples will expand — stocks will blow out to new higher highs. And yields are going to rise at the same time, and fortunes will be made by shorting long-term Treasurys. | 1.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 8.1% | + |
| 10/13/06 | The likely outcome is that the GOP loses the House by a small margin, and hangs onto the Senate by a couple of seats. For the markets, it will be a nonevent. | 0.2% | 1.4% | 4.9% | 12.8% | + |
| 9/1/06 | We’re now in the last few months of the good times…stocks should continue to rise. Make hay while the sun shines. But be ready to bail out. Midnight will toll sooner than you think. | -0.9% | 1.8% | 6.8% | 10.9% | + |
| 8/18/06 | …be ready to use rallies as selling opportunities. Inflation is on the rise, and it will draw the Fed into further rate hikes. When that happens, a recession will be inevitable — and stocks will pay the price. | -0.6% | 1.2% | 7.2% | 12.3% | – |
| 8/11/06 | …the Fed made a tragic policy mistake that will send the U.S. economy into recession within the next 12 months. …stocks are going to be lower than they are today. Paradoxically, though, in the short term stocks are likely to go up. | 2.8% | 3.7% | 9.4% | 11.4% | + |
| 7/28/06 | …we could be seeing signs that the era of deep undervaluation is coming to an end. …sell your bonds and buy stocks. | 0.1% | 1.8% | 8.1% | 15.1% | + |
| 6/23/06 | …the dip over the last month is an extraordinary buying opportunity. …this is a great time to be a buyer of stocks. | 2.1% | 2.0% | 5.9% | 21.0% | + |
| 6/16/06 | I still stand by every bullish word I’ve written over this last month of stock-market decline. | -0.6% | -1.2% | 5.2% | 21.6% | + |
| 5/26/06 | …stocks now are quite undervalued by historical norms. Barring some unforeseen catastrophe like a massive terrorist attack, a stock-market crash from these levels is simply not possible. I’m still bullish… | -1.2% | -3.2% | 1.2% | 20.0% | – |
| 5/19/06 | …the Fed will indeed end up doing what has to be done before it is too late. …this week’s scary dip in equities is a buying opportunity. | 1.0% | -2.1% | 2.4% | 19.0% | + |
| 4/28/06 | …all the worry makes our stock market cheap, …even as it flirts with highs not seen in years. All the growth we’re seeing in our economy has led to an historic corporate earnings boom. It hasn’t even begun to be reflected in share prices. | 1.2% | -3.9% | -3.6% | 14.6% | – |
| 4/21/06 | The Fed’s going to keep hiking interest rates — probably all the way to 6% by the end of the year. …When stocks drop when this latest wave of “are we there yet?” resolves inevitably into a clear “no,” that’s a buying opportunity. | -0.1% | -3.8% | -4.7% | 14.0% | – |
| 4/14/06 | I’ll rest a lot easier when I see the president’s signature on a bill extending the low dividend tax rates. Until [then], …stocks are going to retrench, or at least consolidate. But if we get that signature on that bill in late April or early May, then there’s no reason why the bull market in stocks shouldn’t be up, up and away. | 1.8% | 0.5% | -3.8% | 15.5% | – |
| 2/24/06 | My valuation measures continue to support the bull case. …stocks about as cheap as they’ve been at any point in the last 20 years. | -0.2% | 0.9% | -2.4% | 8.8% | – |
| 1/6/06 | …the bears are just going to have to go back to their caves… | 0.2% | -2.4% | 1.8% | 10.8% | – |
| 12/9/05 | I’m going to continue to be a bull until I see Washington really screw it up… The economy is strong, and it will stay strong right up until the moment that our elected officials kill it. | 0.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 12.2% | + |
| 11/18/05 | Stocks remain deeply undervalued vs. corporate earnings, and that’s a plus for the bulls. My model still has the S&P 500 more than 40% undervalued. But the market has risen over the last month…be optimistic, but don’t be greedy. | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 12.6% | + |
| 11/4/05 | I’m staying bullish right now because I think the value argument is solid — and if sensible, purely technical indicators…are pointing in the same direction, so much the better. | 1.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 13.6% | + |
| 10/28/05 | I continue to see stocks as deeply undervalued… unless downright catastrophe strikes, …there isn’t much downside here. About the worst thing that can happen is that the upside will be limited. | 1.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 14.1% | + |
| 9/9/05 | …don’t worry about what stocks will do when the macro data starts coming in soft over the next few months. …And be bullish. But be careful. | -0.3% | -4.4% | 1.3% | 6.2% | – |
| 8/19/05 | And stocks are so cheap here on a valuation basis that I don’t think there’s room for all that much downside — and plenty of room for upside. | -1.2% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 6.0% | – |
| 7/29/05 | Stocks really are cheap, and risk really is low. | -0.6% | -1.8% | -3.5% | 3.6% | – |
| 7/15/05 | Based on today’s consensus forward earnings, and today’s long-term interest rates, the S&P 500 is about 45% undervalued relative to historic norms. | 0.5% | 0.5% | -4.1% | 2.6% | – |
| 7/8/05 | …don’t underestimate the extent to which markets have already priced the worst. | 1.3% | 0.9% | -1.3% | 3.9% | + |
| 6/24/05 | If you want to try to catch an intermediate term top and avoid even small losses that may ensure…then selling some stock here makes good sense. But be prepared to take advantage of any decline to buy stocks back even cheaper than they already are. But don’t be too greedy — they won’t stay that cheap for long. | 0.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 4.6% | – |
| 6/17/05 | Right now the advantage is with stocks. Big time. | -2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.9% | – |
| 6/3/05 | Based on corporate earnings yields compared to the income yield of bonds, stocks are as cheap as they’ve been at any time during the last two decades, with the exception of the very day of the bottom in October 2002. | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 5.0% | – |
| 5/27/05 | Sell bonds. Buy stocks. | -0.1% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 7.3% | – |
| 5/20/05 | …the stock-market rally of the past month will accelerate yet again. | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 5.8% | + |
| 5/6/05 | Stocks have no place to go but up. And bonds have no place to go but down. | -1.5% | 2.2% | 5.5% | 12.9% | – |
| 4/22/05 | I see all the risks out there. I just think they’re all going to turn out fine. And even if they don’t, stocks are so cheap I’m not worried that I’ll lose a whole lot either way. | 0.4% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 13.3% | + |
| 4/15/05 | The big picture, for me, is dominated by valuation. I don’t hold my model out as a perfect crystal ball. But I do know that when it gets as extreme as it is right now — and again, stocks have been cheaper than they are today only twice before in the last 20 years — it never misses. …My guess is that by next week they will have drifted higher. | 0.8% | 2.0% | 7.3% | 14.6% | + |
| 4/1/05 | …if the Energy and Basic Materials stocks collapse here on sentiment that commodities prices are going all the way back down, then that’s an opportunity to buy. | 0.7% | -0.9% | 2.3% | 11.3% | + |
| 3/25/05 | While high interest rates can be bad for stocks, normal rates are fine. And from the low rates we have today, they can still rise quite a bit just to get to a level of normalcy. …So if we have to go through a little period here of soft stock prices because everyone gets spooked about higher rates, then that’s their mistake — and your opportunity. | 0.2% | -1.9% | 2.3% | 11.0% | + |
| 3/18/05 | Stocks may falter for a while as the oil bubble plays out, but I really don’t see a catastrophe in the offing. Stock prices, cheap as they are, have already discounted possibilities far worse than anything that’s really going to happen. So if there’s more weakness, I say take advantage of it and buy. | -1.3% | -3.1% | 1.8% | 9.7% | + |
| 2/4/05 | …this bull market will climb, because when you take away all the emotions, what’s happening here is very good for the economy, and very good for stocks. | 0.2% | 1.4% | -2.5% | 5.2% | + |
| 1/21/05 | Pretty soon here, it’s going to be bad enough. And that’s very good. | 0.3% | 1.4% | -0.7% | 8.3% | + |
| 1/7/05 | The economy is growing. Stocks are cheap. Rising rates are good. The political environment is investor-friendly. | -0.1% | 1.4% | -0.4% | 9.1% | – |
| 12/31/04 | There are lots of good reasons to expect a January pullback. ..brace yourself for a rough start to 2005…this will be a buying opportunity. | -2.1% | -1.9% | -3.2% | 5.1% | + |
| 12/10/04 | …the stock market would suddenly become a pretty exciting place… | 0.5% | -0.4% | 1.0% | 6.6% | – |
| 12/3/04 | With the S&P 500 up just 7% year-to-date, stocks have a long way to go to reflect the 23% increase in earnings already booked this year…there’s still enough fear around so that stocks have lots of room overhead. | -0.3% | -0.3% | 2.6% | 6.1% | – |
| 11/5/04 | …as I’ve been saying in this column all along, look for a 20% or greater gain in the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter if Bush wins. Well, he won – and we’re on our way. | 1.5% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | – |
| 10/29/04 | …the moment after you vote, put politics behind you and become an investor again — because these next few weeks will be very interesting and probably very, very rewarding. | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.4% | + |
| 10/22/04 | …we could easily see a rally of 20% or more in the S&P 500 following the election, and the Nasdaq could make an even stronger move. | 3.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 9.2% | – |
| 10/1/04 | The only questions for me are how big, and how high will the stock market go? | -0.8% | -0.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | – |
| 9/24/04 | …stocks are so cheap now that my valuation model says that the S&P 500 could rise by almost 35% from here and still be only fairly valued. Over the last 20 years there have been only three times when the market was as cheap as it is today… | 1.9% | -1.4% | 9.0% | 9.5% | – |
| 9/10/04 | …George Bush has pulled out ahead and has some real momentum. That points to…higher stock prices. It’s still a long time till the election, but that’s a bet I’m willing to make. | 0.4% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 9.5% | – |
| 9/3/04 | We’re finally headed in the right direction again. So when traders get back to work after Labor Day and volume comes back into the market, I’m expecting stocks to swing to the upside. | 1.1% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 11.0% | + |
| 8/6/04 | …trends are moving in the bulls’ direction. Valuation is solid. And the technicals are good intermediate-term, even if a little dicey short-term. | 0.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 15.7% | + |
| 7/30/04 | …markets will manage to work their way up, albeit painfully, through the year’s trading range. | -3.4% | -0.2% | 2.1% | 12.9% | + |
| 7/23/04 | …investors are just going to have to make themselves at home in the trading range. | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 13.3% | + |
| 7/16/04 | I continue to think we’re going to have a difficult summer, with all stocks (including technology stocks) trading back down toward the low end of this year’s trading range. | -1.4% | -2.0% | 1.1% | 11.6% | + |
| 7/9/04 | We may be stuck in this trading range for quite a while. So get used to it… If the election’s outcome strongly crystallizes one way or the other for some reason, we could blow out of this trading range in a matter of days. | -1.0% | -4.3% | 2.6% | 9.8% | + |
| 6/25/04 | I’m holding on to all my equity positions, but I’m not adding to them right now. I’m going to wait until stocks trade lower within the year’s trading range… And I’ve sold all my Treasury bonds. | -0.8% | -3.5% | -2.3% | 5.9% | + |
| 6/11/04 | …split the difference, keeping some money in play now, but holding most in reserve to buy the next dip. That’s the way I’m going to be playing it. | 0.4% | -1.2% | -0.1% | 7.2% | + |
| 5/28/04 | I think we’re going higher, and it’s worth being in the market. We’ve been in a correction, and we’ll come out of it. But I don’t see this moment in market history as one of those pivotal bottoms that give birth to stellar upward moves. | 1.8% | 1.8% | -1.2% | 7.5% | + |
| 5/14/04 | Value and technical considerations are clearly lining up bullish… So put me in the bullish camp… | -0.2% | 3.5% | -2.8% | 8.2% | + |
| 4/30/04 | This time Greenspan could get it right for a change – enough rate hikes to rein in incipient inflation, but not too much to kill the golden goose. This is a buying opportunity. | -0.8% | 1.3% | -0.5% | 6.2% | – |
| 4/23/04 | …there’s no evidence at all that stock prices are getting ahead of the economy. | -2.9% | -4.0% | -4.8% | 1.4% | – |
| 4/16/04 | If everyone starts panicking about rising rates, that’s a good opportunity to buy the stocks those people will sell too cheaply. Rising rates aren’t a risk to stocks. | 0.5% | -4.5% | -2.9% | 0.3% | – |
| 4/2/04 | The optimism we’ve expressed here about the market over the last month is finally about to be rewarded. | 0.3% | -1.9% | -1.4% | 4.3% | – |
| 3/26/04 | I cannot urge you strongly enough not to move out of money-market funds and into long-term Treasury bonds… Risk your money on something that represents both a bargain and an opportunity – stocks. | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 6.5% | + |
| 3/19/04 | …there are no speculative excesses in the market, and…stocks are a good value here. | -0.2% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 5.7% | – |
| 3/5/04 | …on average tech stocks are actually slightly undervalued now according to the norms of the past two decades…that’s a buying opportunity in my book. | -3.1% | -0.5% | -3.5% | 4.3% | – |
| 1/9/04 | …based on today’s higher earnings forecasts and the tax effect, that same model is calling for gains [in the S&P 500] of 19% in 2004… | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 5.9% | – |
| 10/31/03 | …stocks still have a lot of catching up to do. The riskiest stocks should continue to turn in the best performance. | 0.2% | 1.5% | 8.0% | 10.6% | + |
| 10/24/03 | …the progress of economic recovery has been spectacular, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 ought to reflect it, by trading 10% higher than it is by now. | 2.1% | 2.3% | 12.3% | 9.6% | + |
| 9/26/03 | I’m still bullish – but now I’m worried, too. You’ll want to make sure that fallout shelter is stocked with all the stuff you’ll need… | 3.3% | 3.4% | 9.7% | 11.8% | – |
| 9/12/03 | I’m satisfied that this recovery isn’t so jobless after all – and that it really is a recovery. | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 10.3% | + |
| 8/22/03 | It’s so much easier to invest at the worst time than it is to invest at the best time. That’s because it’s hard to hear anything when your heart is pounding with fear. But that’s just when you need to listen for the sound of opportunity knocking. I can hear it now. | 1.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 11.3% | + |
| 8/15/03 | …we could see the Standard & Poor’s 500 challenging the 1100 level by the end of September. | 0.2% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 10.2% | – |
| 7/18/03 | …the market will be far higher by the end of the summer than it is today… But right now it looks like we’re in for one of those rough patches that always punctuate even the most rewarding bull markets. | 0.5% | 0.6% | 5.4% | 10.4% | + |
| 7/11/03 | If you look at the numbers beneath the numbers you start to see a very different picture. Stocks start to look tantalizingly cheap. | -0.5% | -1.8% | 3.6% | 10.9% | – |
| 6/27/03 | I’m bullish because I know that the fundamentals for economic recovery are in place and because, according to my model, stocks are underpriced. | 2.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 15.6% | + |
| 6/20/03 | …after a long recession and a longer bear market, things really are finally getting better. | -2.0% | -0.8% | 4.4% | 14.6% | – |
| 6/13/03 | A year from now, I think investors will look back at today’s markets and say, “What was I thinking? How did I miss that?” Today’s stock prices are going to been seen as very cheap, indeed. And today’s bond yields are going to seem comically low. | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 14.5% | + |
| 5/23/03 | Don’t worry. Be happy. It’s all coming together – finally! | 3.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 19.5% | + |
| 5/2/03 | …the change is for the better. But…you may want to curb your enthusiasm. | 0.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 20.6% | – |
| 4/25/03 | Technology stocks are fairly valued here — but nontechnology stocks are still way cheap. Now that geopolitical uncertainties are pretty much out of the way, investors are going to go for the bargains first. And that’s just not tech. | 3.5% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 24.9% | + |
| 3/28/03 | How long can [the strong performance of tech] continue? The answer: for a while, but not much longer. | 1.8% | 6.3% | 14.2% | 30.4% | – |
| 3/21/03 | The bulls are in control again. | -3.6% | 1.7% | 11.0% | 21.8% | – |
| 3/14/03 | I’m getting more and more confident that the bottom forming now will seem as obvious in three years as that top in 2000 seems now. | 7.5% | 6.2% | 19.8% | 34.9% | + |
| 3/7/03 | …the sense of dread engendered by the drawn-out process of going to war in Iraq is crowding out all the good news. | 0.5% | 6.2% | 19.5% | 35.6% | – |
| 2/28/03 | …the stock market looks poised for a major upside run. | -1.5% | 0.8% | 12.9% | 36.8% | + |
| 2/21/03 | …it’s time to pull up your socks and get ready to take some bold action. | -0.8% | 1.9% | 8.9% | 34.8% | + |
| 2/7/03 | Having been a tech bear for so long, don’t mistake me for a tech bull now. But I can smell the beginnings of a turnaround. | 0.6% | -3.5% | 10.9% | 39.5% | + |
| 1/31/03 | …simply enacting [Bush’s tax cut] plan would cause stock prices to jump by about 15% overnight… | -3.0% | -3.9% | 7.1% | 31.6% | – |
| 1/10/03 | If Bush’s proposals are passed into law looking anything like they do now, then brace yourselves for one fabulous year in the stock market. | -2.8% | -10.6% | -6.0% | 21.9% | + |
| 12/27/02 | Think hard about taking profits in Treasurys, and start assuming a little prudent risk. Consider junk bonds… And move back into stocks, but stick to the boring ones… If you absolutely must buy tech stocks, then…own the largest and financially strongest companies. | 6.1% | -1.3% | -1.4% | 27.0% | + |
| 12/6/02 | …tech stocks are now more overvalued relative to the rest of the S&P 500 than they’ve been at just about any time over the past 20 years… And the greatest irony is that the rest of the economy, outside of technology, is most assuredly recovering. | -2.5% | -0.3% | -11.5% | 16.1% | – |
| 10/18/02 | The VIX has never been higher than during the recent market collapse, except for a couple of days in October 1987. Peaks in the VIX are closely associated with market bottoms. | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 16.5% | + |
| 9/13/02 | If we go to war with Iraq, the economic impacts will be unpredictable and chaotic… The eyes of the administration are elsewhere. We remain in the ashes. | -5.0% | -5.4% | 1.7% | 15.3% | + |
| 9/6/02 | Now stocks are cheap – and yet, as I talk to institutional investors every day, I can’t find one who’s enthusiastic about owning stocks. | -0.5% | -12.2% | 2.6% | 13.1% | – |
| 8/2/02 | …companies have finally surprised on the upside, and the market has finally fallen to price levels that make it cheap, in fact as cheap as it’s been in almost 20 years… | 5.1% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 11.9% | + |
| 7/26/02 | …the market is no longer overvalued. So if you’re the least bit optimistic about economic recovery…buy quality companies at fair prices. | 1.3% | 11.2% | 5.1% | 15.8% | + |
| 7/12/02 | …I’m bullish now, for the first time in over two years. And yet I’m talking to my institutional clients about taking only small pilot positions in equities. | -8.0% | -1.9% | -15.7% | 7.9% | – |
| 6/14/02 | …the stars are aligning: the best valuations in 5 1/2 years, and an earnings recovery that no one seems to know about. This bear is starting to get interested in stocks again. | -1.8% | -10.6% | -11.9% | 0.3% | – |
| 6/7/02 | The Nasdaq remains richly…overvalued… The final leg of the journey will be characterized by deterioration in sentiment out of proportion to the deterioration in fundamentals. | -2.0% | -7.3% | -14.4% | -2.9% | + |
| 5/10/02 | Even after all we’ve been through over the last two bear-market years, the valuation conundrum leaves investors with the possibility that the market is an accident waiting to keep on happening. | 4.9% | -3.9% | -14.2% | -11.0% | – |
| 4/26/02 | There’s still a long way to go. The technology sector’s P/E of 33 is still well above the long-term norm of 19… | -0.3% | -0.2% | -22.1% | -14.8% | + |
| 4/12/02 | …we’ll soon see how much reality these valuations can take. | 1.3% | -3.3% | -16.5% | -19.8% | + |
| 3/22/02 | …the technology sector is nowhere near any kind of recovery that even begins to justify its still-lofty valuations. | -0.2% | -4.2% | -12.4% | -24.3% | + |
| 2/22/02 | The Nasdaq may go to zero, but at least we’ll be Enronically clean. | 3.8% | 3.9% | -0.4% | -24.1% | – |
| 2/15/02 | …we are in the middle of a recession and a savage bear market… | 0.5% | 6.0% | -0.5% | -24.2% | – |
| 1/16/02 | …stock prices are now so high in relation to consensus earnings expectations that only a miracle can sustain valuations. | 0.4% | -2.1% | -0.1% | -21.3% | + |
| 1/9/02 | …spectacular earnings growth is already built into stock prices. So if it actually happens, then stock prices might not even budge. But if it doesn’t happen, then it’s going to be Code Blue… | -2.4% | -5.1% | -2.1% | -19.8% | + |
| 12/26/01 | We’ll recover from this recession at some point – but the only “wow” about it will be how long it takes. | 1.4% | -1.4% | -0.4% | -23.5% | + |
| 12/12/01 | So why would investors ever buy ultrarisky technology stocks now with an earnings yield of only 1.9% when they can earn a nearly riskless income yield from bonds of 5.5%? They won’t. | 1.1% | 0.1% | 1.4% | -19.9% | + |
| 11/28/01 | It’s just going to get harder and harder from here on in to pick the few winning needles out of the losing haystack. | 3.7% | 2.9% | -1.9% | -17.2% | – |
| 11/21/01 | …deflation is going to be tough on all stocks. | 0.3% | 0.7% | -4.2% | -18.0% | + |
| 11/7/01 | So far so good. We’re building a platform for recovery and stabilization. And after that, can growth be far behind? | 2.3% | 3.8% | -3.2% | -21.5% | + |
| 10/24/01 | …the good times are over. The global economy has been sliding down the slippery slope of recession all year, and the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 gave it a big push downhill. | -2.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% | -18.0% | + |
| 10/17/01 | Today, the best offense is some good defense stocks. | 0.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | -16.5% | – |
| 10/10/01 | I’m bearish right now… | -0.4% | 3.5% | 6.9% | -22.2% | – |
| 10/3/01 | …it could easily get worse before it gets better. But now is the time to find your faith. | 0.8% | 1.1% | 7.7% | -26.8% | + |
| 9/12/01 | I’ve been saying for weeks that we’ve needed a catalyst to pull the markets out of their tailspin. I never could have guessed that a coordinated terrorist attack on the United States would be that catalyst. But it just might. | -3.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | -18.8% | + |
| 9/5/01 | …when there’s no upside, there’s no reason to take the risk of holding equities. Which is why everyone is selling them. | -8.7% | -4.5% | 2.3% | -21.4% | + |
| 8/29/01 | …the wave has passed. And the bull market has gotten laid off. Because growth isn’t growing anymore. | -3.7% | -6.9% | -1.6% | -21.4% | + |
| 8/22/01 | The economy isn’t recovering yet. | -1.4% | -12.6% | -0.7% | -21.4% | + |
| 8/8/01 | …the Nasdaq will…continue to wander, rangebound, looking elsewhere for leadership. | -0.5% | -8.3% | -5.3% | -21.5% | – |
