A reader suggested that we evaluate the market commentary of Martin Goldberg, as available via the Financial Sense archive for September 2003 through June 2010 and currently via Financial Sense. Martin Goldberg “is a Chartered Market Technician who manages money privately.” He sometimes notes that “when you identify a hot guru, it pays to follow his advice.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Martin Goldberg times the market using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis, interpreting a wide range of charts.
- He covers stocks, gold, bonds and oil. Within stocks, he focuses most often on the QQQQ (for which we use the S&P 500 index as a rough proxy).
- We skip issues in which there is no market forecast call or the forecast is substantially conditional/equivocal.
- Martin Goldberg’s forecast sample is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
In a 12/18/07 email, Mr. Goldberg comments: “[W]hy do you continue in setting stock market commentary to an objective percent correct/percent incorrect context? … It makes little difference to me but you are subjecting many good professionals to criticism that is both unfair and unprofessionally presented.” We invite readers to browse tabular summaries such as the one below and source commentaries and decide for themselves regarding the value of the approach. See also his additional specific comment on this review.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Martin Goldberg via Financial Sense | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 5/20/10 | At the moment, it would appear that the market has put in an intermediate term top, although it is likely that the action early last week was a harbinger of future stock market and economy “rescue” plan rallies. | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 22.9% | + |
| 4/16/10 | There are clear skies and sunshine and a bull market in the short term. You should be long. | 2.1% | -4.6% | -8.0% | 9.5% | – |
| 3/18/10 | Strategically, you should be long. | 0.0% | 2.7% | -4.4% | 11.4% | + |
| 1/21/10 | …it is likely that there will be more correction to follow. …it appears that the several day market correction has not hit bottom. | -2.9% | -0.8% | 8.0% | 15.6% | + |
| 11/19/09 | My opinion is that this rally will not be subject to a quick reversal; but rather there will be optimal market behavior to convince the public that each dip is a buying opportunity. | -0.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 7.8% | + |
| 10/22/09 | My expectation is that the current market behavior will continue for a period of weeks to a couple of months. …In the beginning of ’10, a significant correction or worse will occur. | -2.5% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 8.5% | + |
| 9/17/09 | …there is no reason to sell or go short now and a lot of reasons to hold long positions. …a likely intermediate term scenario is that the market may soon advance in a parabolic manner – an advance at an accelerating rate – before it undergoes its first significant correction since March. | -1.4% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 7.0% | + |
| 7/16/09 | About 950 (with appropriate stops entered) may turn out to be the perfect selling opportunity. | 3.8% | 6.7% | 14.1% | 15.2% | – |
| 4/16/09 | If there were a time and a place for a rally correction to occur, it would be over the next week or so. | -1.5% | 2.0% | 7.8% | 39.5% | + |
| 2/19/09 | The market is now closing with the S&P at 780, which is about 2.5% lower than the “breakout” point of the handle in the S&P 500 chart… If 3% is taken as a “decisive” break of support at 800, then the S&P sits less than 0.5% above…a failure of support. Do you believe in miracles? …The important question for most investors is whether to be in cash or gold. | -3.4% | -7.3% | 16.6% | 40.5% | + |
| 2/4/09 | I’m thinking that the current “bottom” level is not the final bottom because it hasn’t triggered any serious changes in behavior from the recent past. | 0.2% | -17.9% | 8.6% | 27.0% | + |
| 1/15/09 | …it would appear that the odds would favor a short term market rally over the next 5 days or so. | -1.4% | -6.5% | 2.6% | 34.9% | – |
| 10/2/08 | There is nowhere to hide in this market. …Save for bear funds, there is not a bull market anywhere. | -18.3% | -13.1% | -18.9% | -5.3% | + |
| 9/18/08 | If the index can remain above 1200, we could get our year end election rally. If the index closes 3 to 4 days below the October of 2005 lows, then the one year old market swoon will probably be just the tip of the bear market iceberg. | 0.2% | -18.3% | -24.3% | -11.2% | + |
| 8/21/08 | …expect the in-progress bounce to continue. But it would not be wise to forget that the S&P 500 is in a long term downtrend… | 1.8% | -5.5% | -32.8% | -19.5% | + |
| 7/17/08 | Look at a long term chart of the S&P 500 below. Ask yourself the question, “Is this going up, or is this going down?” It looks to me like it is going down. | -0.6% | 3.0% | -20.8% | -24.3% | + |
| 6/5/08 | …most evidence…suggests that the market has not yet fully discounted [the debt and banking crisis]. If the market is tracing a more ominous pattern than the multiple HAS [head and shoulders], then the reversal may not be leisurely at all. Those January and March selloffs (refuting the multiple HAS) are troubling me in that they don’t support the leisurely pace of the next market correction. | -4.6% | -10.8% | -9.2% | -32.9% | + |
| 3/20/08 | …the market is in a downtrend. …The market action is such that if it can spoil your day, your commitments are too great. | -1.1% | 4.4% | 0.6% | -39.4% | – |
| 2/21/08 | …a rally back to [about 1410] in the chart above is probably the more likely scenario. …the US market is now in some type of corrective pattern which is difficult to trade. | 1.9% | 0.5% | 5.3% | -42.4% | – |
| 11/15/07 | The market was down today on progressively lower volume than the last 3 days, and it still hasn’t given up Tuesday’s entire rally. This suggests that a short term rally may be coming. | -0.7% | -0.4% | -7.0% | -40.8% | – |
| 11/1/07 | There is a strong case for positioning into some sort of market plunge protection as a hedge against downside risk. | -2.2% | -2.4% | -7.5% | -33.3% | + |
| 9/6/07 | If you think that Fed action is going to cause anything beyond a relatively short knee-jerk rally, think again. …something pretty ugly is developing in the US economy. | 0.4% | 5.3% | -1.1% | -17.2% | + |
| 8/16/07 | Today has all the appearances of a reversal day… Now with sufficient buying power via new liquidity, panic sellers becoming panic buyers, and short covering, the market becomes free heading higher. …the daily hammers deserve respect from a short term trading perspective. | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | -10.2% | + |
| 3/29/07 | …there is deteriorating action in the S&P 500 in recent weeks and for this reason, traders should probably look for selling opportunities until and unless the current price and volume relationships change. | 1.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | -3.9% | – |
| 3/22/07 | …the benefit of the doubt moves from the bears to the bulls all within a single day. | -0.8% | 3.2% | 5.5% | -6.5% | + |
| 3/10/07 | …I don’t think this rally or stabilization has much longer to go. …at the least, this is signaling an intermediate term correction – the correction of the rally that began in the summer. If it is only that, then we would expect it to last a period of weeks and correct a good bit of the rally… | -0.3% | 2.3% | 7.2% | -6.5% | – |
| 3/8/07 | …it would not be wise to think that the worst is over. | -0.7% | 3.0% | 8.2% | -5.8% | – |
| 3/1/07 | …the market is likely to sustain additional losses in the weeks ahead. | -0.1% | 1.3% | 9.1% | -5.4% | + |
| 2/22/07 | …trends are to be respected, and the trend for the S&P 500 is up…. Until there’s a change in character, the trend is what should be respected and traded. …A correction may be due to occur soon, but selling here would not be supported by enough bearish technical confirmation. | -3.7% | -1.4% | 4.7% | -5.2% | – |
| 2/15/07 | …it is probably too early to get excited about any bearish stock market implications associated with the potential for a rising VIX. …the still-alive trend has been for corrections to be of minor duration and magnitude. | -0.4% | -3.8% | 3.9% | -6.6% | – |
| 2/8/07 | …the odds favor…a meaningful correction to occur soon. However, the basis for most of technical analysis consists of giving the benefit of the doubt to trends which are alive and well. Given the apparently live(ly) trend of the Dow at the present time, it would only be a bad technician that would suggest selling now. | 0.6% | -2.9% | 3.0% | -6.9% | – |
| 2/1/07 | …for now, the breakouts deserve the bullish benefit of the doubt. | 0.2% | -5.0% | 3.5% | -7.6% | – |
| 12/28/06 | …it’s difficult for me to give the bull market the benefit of the doubt. But as a technician, that is exactly what must be done. | -0.8% | 0.9% | -0.3% | 1.6% | + |
| 12/21/06 | …it would be caviler to take any significant bearish positions against such herd behavior. | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 4.1% | + |
| 12/7/06 | …the 2006 rally, which is even more “erect” than that of ’04 is overdue for its own correction. | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 5.6% | – |
| 10/12/06 | This is the stuff of a rally that is feeding upon itself, and will probably only exhaust itself when there is no one left to buy. In this suddenly bullish environment, the chance of a parabolic up move must be considered by owners of stocks and again, there is no reason to sell because you might miss such a bullish parabola… | 0.3% | 1.3% | 5.0% | 13.1% | + |
| 8/17/06 | …the…question is whether or not we are seeing a slightly earlier repeat of the 2004 election rally. In that year the market rallied from August into the November elections and beyond pretty much without significant pause. There’s seemingly no reason why this cannot happen once again. | -0.1% | 1.8% | 7.4% | 12.8% | + |
| 8/10/06 | Until recently, there was a reason to buy or hold stocks that was separate from valuations – technicals. But now those technicals are also breaking down. For most investors, with regard to most US stocks, the sideline is the place to be. | 2.0% | 2.2% | 8.7% | 10.6% | – |
| 7/27/06 | This is not a healthy situation for the stock market or the economy. | 1.4% | 2.5% | 9.0% | 16.0% | – |
| 7/13/06 | In the long and intermediate term, there are warnings everywhere that the bear market is likely to be upon us. | 0.6% | 2.0% | 8.9% | 24.5% | – |
| 7/6/06 | Today’s market is a dangerous place for all but the most agile traders. …The market has become defensive, and maybe you should too. | -2.5% | 0.4% | 4.7% | 19.2% | + |
| 6/29/06 | …the short term prognosis is now bullish for the major market indices. | -0.6% | 0.3% | 5.0% | 19.8% | – |
| 6/22/06 | …in the intermediate term, there is a bearish overtone to the US stock market. | 2.2% | 1.2% | 6.4% | 20.9% | – |
| 6/1/06 | Evidence suggests that today’s action will bring on some more buying pressure by momentum players. …once this rally plays out, it will set up one of the best selling opportunities of a generation. | -2.2% | -1.2% | 1.4% | 18.0% | – |
| 5/25/06 | This market has all the earmarks of one in which you could lose a lot of your wealth. It doesn’t feel as if this is a market in which you would be missing any great opportunities by simply sitting on the sidelines and watching the action unfold. | 1.2% | -1.8% | 1.6% | 20.2% | – |
| 5/18/06 | …there is extensive evidence to suggest that the bull market is coming to a close. …I’m looking for a rally in the near term… But this won’t change the long term picture which, after special items and one-time events, is bleak. | 0.9% | -1.7% | 2.7% | 20.6% | – |
| 5/11/06 | There is a mix of bad stuff out there, and it would be foolish to be fooled by a bull market… | -3.4% | -5.3% | -3.1% | 15.9% | + |
| 3/30/06 | Soon the sheep will be sheared. | 0.7% | 0.4% | -4.2% | 10.7% | + |
| 3/16/06 | Something smells pretty bad here, and yet it is too early to jump the gun with bearish positions… That said, one cannot rule out the possibility that this bull market will not end in one final flourish. …Preserve your capital. | -0.3% | -1.5% | -5.8% | 9.9% | + |
| 3/9/06 | This time it may be different – the wall of worry may be legitimate. | 2.6% | 1.8% | -1.3% | 9.0% | – |
| 12/22/05 | The market will be lightly up through the end of the year…the stock market should rally through the 1st quarter of 2006. …The stock market will crash in the 3rd quarter of 2006. | -1.6% | -0.3% | 2.7% | 12.5% | – |
| 12/8/05 | …although the market is now way overbought, the intact bullish trend deserves the benefit of the doubt for now. Yet I’m skeptical of this bullish backdrop…it is likely that there will be significant trading money that will exit the market in December… | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 12.4% | – |
| 12/1/05 | More up to follow in all probability. | -0.7% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 11.9% | + |
| 11/3/05 | …we will get the convergence of lower oil (assuming the short term trend stays in place), and a stock market that reaches high ground and makes the news. And as it stands, it appears that this will all happen during the Christmas shopping season. | 0.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 13.4% | + |
| 9/15/05 | …it would be premature to suggest that the bull market is over… | -1.1% | -3.4% | 3.2% | 7.4% | + |
| 8/18/05 | …the rally must still be given the benefit of the doubt for now. | -0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 6.5% | – |
| 8/11/05 | For now there is a bull market everywhere, but this is not sustainable. | -1.5% | 0.2% | -1.6% | 3.9% | + |
| 8/4/05 | While this smells like a blow off, there is no telling (from the smell) how high and far this thing will go. | 0.2% | -1.4% | -2.7% | 2.9% | – |
| 7/14/05 | No question the bull market has to be given the benefit of the doubt. In the very short timeframe though, the market appears to be overbought and due for a correction to the downside. | 0.0% | 0.3% | -3.4% | 0.8% | – |
| 6/23/05 | …the stock market may have seen a key turning point today from bullish to bearish. …In my view, the weight of evidence favors the bears… | -0.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 3.2% | – |
| 6/15/05 | From a short term perspective, the stock market has to be given the benefit of the doubt… | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | + |
| 6/9/05 | …some rally follow through in the major indices is likely. | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | + |
| 5/19/05 | Similar to today’s stock market, they also partied on the Titanic after the iceberg scraped a fatal gash through the bottom of the ship. | 0.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 5.5% | – |
| 5/12/05 | …there is not a good risk reward ratio in either the bullish or bearish direction in the short term. …the intermediate term is bearish. | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 11.4% | – |
| 4/28/05 | The intermediate trend appears to be a downward one. …as a fundamental investor it would be wise not to kid yourself about the greatness of management teams or consistency of company dividends. Value is value. As an investor, Sell ‘em all! …I’m expecting a short term rally, and that would make for an excellent exiting point for many stocks including transports. | 2.6% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 14.9% | – |
| 3/23/05 | …something big is about to happen, and that something is bearish. | 0.7% | -1.7% | 3.5% | 11.0% | – |
| 3/10/05 | Make no mistake; there is a lot of risk in the stock market – especially the US stock market. | -1.6% | -2.3% | -1.2% | 7.3% | + |
| 2/17/05 | It is likely that today’s bearish action suggested the short term direction of the market to be down. | 0.9% | -1.4% | -1.3% | 7.7% | – |
| 2/10/05 | …soon it might be time to say hello to the second phase of the Bear Market – a bear so fierce, that it contains an entire bull market within it. | 0.3% | 0.8% | -2.2% | 6.6% | – |
| 2/3/05 | …the failure of [head-and-shoulders] patterns suggest an immediate continuance of the bull market, yet the appearance of decisive breaks of uptrends and the appearance of HAS patterns, (in spite of their failure to run to completion), suggest longer-term bearish implications for the stock market. | 0.6% | 3.0% | -1.2% | 5.5% | + |
| 1/27/05 | …there is another major stock market top coming… While timing this important top has been difficult, there is little doubt as to its existence. | 1.3% | 2.5% | -1.5% | 9.0% | – |
| 1/13/05 | The Intermediate trend appears to be down. Yet…is there a case for a short term Nasdaq bounce? I think there is. | -0.8% | 2.4% | -1.3% | 8.5% | + |
| 1/6/05 | …it is time to look out. | -0.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 8.6% | – |
| 12/16/04 | …things should stay steady through next week as volume declines and the Christmas, New Year’s low-volume trading will be dominated by John Q. Public, so stocks should drift higher… | 0.6% | -0.6% | -1.1% | 4.7% | – |
| 12/13/04 | I’ll bet this rally has some more life left in it. Why? Alan Greenspan speaks tomorrow, and he will say soothing things to make the stock and bond market happy. | -0.3% | -0.9% | 0.7% | 6.2% | – |
| 12/9/04 | Chase it? Desperate people do desperate things! | 1.2% | 0.1% | 1.7% | 6.0% | + |
| 11/11/04 | In spite of the opinion of apparently “everyone” that the stock market is going up for an extended period of time, the evidence presented above and in April suggests a possible tradable rally at best in the near term, and a replay of 1929 is possible if not likely in the longer term. With eyes on the months-to-year timeframe, I’ll gladly and with conviction, play the part of the last contrarian standing… | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 5.1% | – |
| 11/3/04 | …the recent presidential election rally…is probably not anything that will be sustainable beyond a couple of weeks. | 1.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.7% | – |
| 10/28/04 | …the erratic patterns that are showing up in many of the stock and index charts are more representative of an important top than a base for much upside that can be gleaned by long-term investors. | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 7.1% | – |
| 10/21/04 | …the major stock market indices may have shown their hand by tracing bearish intermediate patterns. …Something big is about to happen. And that something probably is not bullish. | 1.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.4% | – |
| 10/14/04 | …it appears as if we are in the early stages of another intermediate downtrend. | 0.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | – |
| 10/6/04 | …the intermediate prognosis of the stock market does not appear to be bullish. | -2.5% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | – |
| 9/30/04 | …there is every reason to believe that the general stock market is due for either a correction at best or even a crash in the intermediate term. | 1.4% | 1.4% | 8.9% | 10.1% | – |
| 9/23/04 | …the rally is on its last leg. | 0.6% | -1.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | + |
| 8/26/04 | …I see no evidence to suggest the leisurely bumpy ride to Nasdaq 1,650 previously predicted will not occur. …this is tremendous selling opportunity for those with a mind toward the long-term. The intermediate trend is down, and this is a sucker’s rally. | 1.2% | -0.1% | 6.5% | 9.7% | – |
| 8/12/04 | …not only have we not experienced the last phase of a bear market consisting of distressed selling, but we have not even began the second phase of the Bear Market yet. …The trend is down, and no amount of financial alchemy can change that. | 2.6% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 16.0% | – |
| 8/5/04 | …I see no reason to pull in my intermediate term bearish Nasdaq position at this time… | -1.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 13.2% | – |
| 7/22/04 | Given that we have completed a secondary correction that meets all the definitions of a bull market, I believe that “prices will eventually go much further” after a recovery from 1,650. | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 12.1% | – |
| 7/8/04 | …I think we now have the proverbial “hanging curve ball”. …It seems unlikely that with the rank-and-file stocks continuing to retreat, that the Nasdaq index will not do the same thing before election time. Similar, yet not as severe behavior is shown in the rank-and-file New York Stock Exchange, S&P 500 stocks, and the other major indices. | -0.2% | -4.1% | 2.3% | 9.9% | + |
| 6/17/04 | …the rally is probably not sustainable. | 0.8% | -2.8% | -1.0% | 7.4% | + |
| 5/27/04 | …the downtrend of the multiple head-and-shoulders reversal is still intact. | 0.1% | 1.3% | -1.4% | 7.2% | – |
| 5/6/04 | I think it’s time to “find the door”. | -1.6% | 2.4% | -3.0% | 4.7% | + |
| 4/29/04 | It feels and smells like a stock market top. …the bear market rally is probably over. | 0.0% | 0.6% | -1.2% | 4.2% | – |
| 4/22/04 | It will be very interesting to see if they can keep the music playing until Election Day. Some of my money says they can’t. | -2.3% | -4.1% | -3.8% | 1.0% | + |
| 4/8/04 | …it’s a good time to have cash, some speculative issues in sectors that are “hot”, and a pocket full of Nasdaq puts as a risk reduction measure. …it’s a good time to have cash, some speculative issues in sectors that are “hot”, and a pocket full of Nasdaq puts as a risk reduction measure. | -0.4% | -4.6% | -2.3% | 3.0% | + |
| 3/11/04 | You may get a head fake rally; but the trend is down in my view. | 1.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 8.2% | – |
| 3/4/04 | So how do you think the market can return to its timeless trend of fleecing the public while the public playing the technical analysis/momentum game in unprecedented numbers? There’s only one logical answer, and that is a crash. | -4.2% | -1.1% | -2.6% | 5.6% | + |
| 2/19/04 | …if you want to speculate in the broader stock market, go ahead. But you would be well advised to take a pocket full of puts. | -0.2% | -3.3% | -4.8% | 3.2% | + |
| 1/15/04 | …the technical basis for a bearish case appears to be gone. Are we in a “New Bull Market”? I don’t think so. …So is it time to short stocks? Not me. Not yet. | 0.8% | 2.2% | -0.3% | 4.6% | + |
| 1/8/04 | …we are now in the 2nd or 3rd biggest American stock market mania of modern times. | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 4.5% | – |
| 12/11/03 | …the intermediate trend has turned from UP to DOWN. | 1.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 12.6% | – |
| 12/4/03 | …all the ingredients for a stock market crash are in place. The only thing missing is the catalyst, and there are a variety of potential ones on the horizon. The risk (of a crash) greatly outweighs the marginal gains that can be made at this point. | 0.1% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 10.6% | – |
| 11/24/03 | …we have not yet seen a bear market bottom. The more likely nature of the recent market rally is a secondary bull move in a primary bear market that has not ended. There have been two technical signals that indicate that the rally has ended and the NASDAQ will continue to its primary (down) trend. …a good risk/reward ratio for bear positions. | 1.4% | 4.0% | 8.7% | 12.0% | – |
| 11/13/03 | …the market is going through a secondary correction in a primary bear market. | -2.3% | 0.9% | 8.3% | 11.7% | – |
| 10/16/03 | There is precious little profit to be made in investing in common stocks in the fundamental buy-and-hold manner… | -1.6% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 5.1% | – |
| 10/2/03 | We are clearly seeing a continuation of overtrading in today’s stock market that indicates we have not seen the bottom. | 1.8% | 3.0% | 9.0% | 11.9% | – |
| 9/25/03 | …it seems like the hot speculative money may be bailing out. | 1.7% | 2.6% | 9.2% | 11.1% | – |
| 9/18/03 | I see many characteristics in the NASDAQ chart that suggests shorting it with a stop loss might just work… I have tons of evidence to suggest it’s a bull correction in a secular bear… | -3.5% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 7.1% | + |
| 9/11/03 | …sell under performing stocks and stock market index traded funds now. | 2.3% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 10.2% | – |
