A reader asked: “Do you know of Mike Paulenoff? Have you reviewed him?” Mike Paulenoff‘s web site is MPTrader.com, “a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff’s trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon…”
There is not enough information on MPTrader.com to assess the performance of his recommendations. There is a related resource page on Stock-Market-Experts.com. The most robust archive of Mike Paulenoff’s past trading commentaries appears to be MarketWatch.com. The table below summarizes his past gradable outlooks for the broad U.S. stock market from MarketWatch.com (12 in total) in the style of Guru Grades. While small, the sample does not support a belief that his financial markets forecasting ability is remarkable.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Mike Paulenoff via MarketWatch.com | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 12/5/08 | …we’re in a recovery rally that is not yet complete. The charts point to a retest of the Nov. 30 high of 897.50, a break above which should trigger a move that projects to 940-60. …it doesn’t appear that the market can sustain these gains without looping back for yet another test of the lows thereafter. …Assuming the market retests the low, sometime in early 2009 this retest — and possible marginal new lows in the major indexes — will likely confirm a bottom, and screaming buy signals should be in place for a sustainable rally. | 0.4% | 3.5% | -22.8% | 25.1% | 0 |
| 7/24/08 | The financials, transports and stock index ETFs are turning up. | 1.2% | 3.2% | -28.4% | -21.8% | + |
| 11/28/07 | …my sense is we’re nearing a very important bottom. Areas I’d be looking to buy: Financials are one. | 1.1% | 0.6% | -6.9% | -44.4% | – |
| 6/6/07 | While I’ve identified near-term support levels in the SPY, as of this moment none of them have been broken or even approached, which suggests that the bulls remain firmly in control. | -0.1% | 0.9% | -1.8% | -10.3% | + |
| 2/7/07 | The index no doubt is overbought technically and relatively risky here on the long side, yet at the same time there appears to be some unfinished business on the upside, however brief it may turn out to be. | 0.4% | -3.3% | 4.3% | -7.6% | + |
| 11/2/06 | Dow rally done. My suspicion is that you could see 118-116 in the DIA in a hurry, or roughly a 2.5% to 4% down-move. | 0.8% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | – |
| 8/10/06 | …we may likely have seen the high for this recent up-move. …This sets up a directional trade on the short side of the S&P 500. | 2.0% | 2.2% | 8.7% | 10.6% | – |
| 5/4/06 | The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index…has [an upside] target of 1340 to 1360. From there, the indexes will be vulnerable technically to a serious correction | -0.5% | -3.6% | -2.6% | 13.7% | 0 |
| 1/26/06 | The S&P 500…is due for some continued correction as we head into the relatively weak month of February. …traders should expect more selling pressure that…likely makes new lows down to the 1235-30 zone. But that level should contain the down-move. …expect the pullback to last until the second or third week of February. At that time, the S&P should pivot to the upside again and try to retest the January highs, if not make new highs in the 1310 area. | -0.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 12.9% | – |
| 9/15/05 | …I can see the S&P 500 going to 1300 from here in the upcoming weeks. That would be a rally of 4.9% in the equity index. | -1.1% | -3.4% | 3.2% | 7.4% | – |
| 3/28/05 | Not only is the up-leg from the August 2004 low of 1060.74 in jeopardy of exhaustion, but the entire major recovery rally from the October 2002 lows at 768 may be over as well. At the very least, my work argues that the market in general, and the S&P 500 in particular, are in the midst of a serious correction. …Anybody trading in the near-term may want to be hedged against a move below 1160 in the S&P. | 0.2% | -1.9% | 2.3% | 11.0% | – |
| 10/13/04 | …a composite sketch of the financial markets since early September shows a potentially gloomy picture for equities. …a period of vulnerability for equity prices is approaching fast. | -0.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | – |
