As suggested by readers, we evaluate here Bill Cara’s weekly outlooks for the U.S. stock market since January 2005. Bill Cara “is a global capital markets professional who has founded and managed successful full-service and national electronic brokerages.” He is president, head trader and chief market strategist for Cara Trading Advisors, which “actively trades your online account 24 hours a day, minimizing risk and maximizing returns in good times and bad.” The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- Bill Cara covers a range of asset classes in his commentaries, including stocks, bonds, gold, currencies and commodities. He also discusses many individual stocks. We focus here exclusively on his forecasts regarding the broad U.S. equity market, as conveyed in his long weekly reviews (especially the introductory and “U.S. Equities” sections of these commentaries).
- We skip those commentaries that offer no testable forecast for the overall stock market and those in which the forecasts are especially vague or conditional. It is sometimes difficult to infer his forecast horizon.
- Mr. Cara cites a wide range of fundamental, technical and economic data to explain his stock market forecasts. He has been mostly pessimistic in his outlook for the U.S. economy and broad stock market over the sample period.
- Bill Cara’s forecast sample size is moderate, as is therefore confidence in the measurement of his accuracy.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Bill Cara via billcara.com and caracommunity.com | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 12/23/12 | …likely early in January, I believe the broad equity market will be strongly bullish. …we will continue maintain our bullish long-term investment outlook and portfolio stance… | 2.5% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 28.8% | + |
| 12/2/12 | …prices of equities…are likely to go higher in 2013. My thinking is that between now and the peak in 3Q2013 we’ll see the S&P 500 up +15% |
0.6% | 3.5% | 9.2% | 26.6% | + |
| 11/18/12 | …I think the Bull is still alive… | 0.9% | 3.5% | 9.0% | 29.5% | + |
| 11/11/12 | The bigger question is whether the recent seven week bearish cycle was a change to a bearish trend or was a time-based consolidation of the previous bull phase. The big picture looks to me to be the latter. | 0.5% | 3.5% | 10.1% | 29.8% | + |
| 10/21/12 | …did Friday’s sell-off convert many Bulls to Bears? If so, that would be a big mistake. | -1.5% | -1.7% | 4.3% | 22.9% | + |
| 10/14/12 | All of this QE-driven reflation stimuli will lift PE multiples and hence equity prices… Then, as I see it, this Great Reflation will end and will be followed by the Great Collapse, one that I believe could be similar to the depression era of the 1930’s. …when you see gold approaching $3000/oz, likely about a year from now, that will be the time to do all in your power to protect your wealth. Until then, it is a time, with prices on the rise, to grow your wealth as best you can. | -0.4% | -6.0% | 2.3% | 21.1% | – |
| 9/23/12 | …while some of the technical indicators definitely show a bit of weakness here, I am not turning bearish in my outlook. …I think the market Bull has another year to run, with about +15% capital growth likely… | -0.9% | -3.0% | -2.1% | 15.4% | + |
| 9/16/12 | Clearly, the Bulls are in control. | -0.3% | -0.4% | -2.1% | 16.5% | – |
| 9/2/12 | …I take this situation as a sign that capital is getting ready for a surge into equities, probably as soon as the Washington polls become fairly clear as to the outcome on November 2, which is only two months away. | 2.0% | 3.3% | 0.2% | 19.9% | + |
| 6/3/12 | …I’m now thinking we are nearing a cycle bottom. | 2.4% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 28.5% | + |
| 5/6/12 | …I still think that equity prices are ready to lift… In fact, I think that with just a little help from Bonds and the Dollar (as in their falling), the broad equity market indexes will lift by about one-third… | -2.3% | -4.0% | 1.6% | 19.3% | – |
| 4/29/12 | …the weight of the evidence seems to be favoring the lifting of prices for equities…it seems like the Bulls are taking control of the markets. That could go on for quite a while… | -2.0% | -6.1% | -0.9% | 15.7% | – |
| 3/4/12 | …overall, I think we have to stay the course, which is to be near fully invested. | 4.0% | 3.6% | -6.3% | 14.1% | + |
| 1/29/12 | …Bernanke has helped send us on to bigger and better prices this year…for the broad market. | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 13.9% | + |
| 12/11/11 | …generally, my mindset (call it bias) is that equities are going to lift in 2012… | -2.5% | 4.8% | 12.9% | 15.7% | + |
| 10/2/11 | …I believe there will be a boom in the prices of equities…probably for a year or so until the system starts to fall apart at the seams the next time. …the doomsday clock was ready to strike 12 and has just been set back to 11:45. | 8.7% | 10.8% | 14.4% | 32.9% | + |
| 9/25/11 | …better days are probably ahead. | -5.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 24.4% | + |
| 9/18/11 | …I believe the indicators are presently bullish. | -3.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 21.3% | – |
| 8/21/11 | …higher share prices are on the way. | 7.7% | 3.8% | 8.2% | 24.8% | + |
| 8/7/11 | …equity prices are soon headed north. …We took advantage of the low prices on Thursday and Friday. | 7.6% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 25.3% | + |
| 7/31/11 | …If, as and when there is a deal on Capitol Hill, I think these prices will lift. | -13.0% | -5.8% | -0.2% | 6.1% | – |
| 7/10/11 | Friday’s pull-back in equity prices will likely be short-lived because America’s new economic driver, monetization, will attract the speculators…who…will bid prices higher… | -1.1% | -11.1% | -11.7% | 1.2% | – |
| 6/5/11 | …in the near future, I believe the second shoe will be dropped on precious metals and some commodities like crude oil in hopes that will spark a turnaround in the global economy. What such a development would lead to in my view is an all-out sell-off of the broad equity markets… | -1.1% | 4.1% | -6.4% | 2.2% | + |
| 5/15/11 | …I do believe the equity market is topping. …risks are escalating. | -0.9% | -4.8% | -10.9% | -1.9% | + |
| 5/8/11 | The next wave will be pressure to reduce liabilities. Central banks and credit markets will tighten. Asset prices will drop. …Commodity and equity prices will fall… | -1.2% | -5.0% | -10.9% | 0.9% | + |
| 3/13/11 | This is a time when capital must be protected…the interventionist central banks and their army of PPT’s have the tools to hold back natural law for a while longer, but it seems to me they are merely patching a retaining wall that is about to burst… Pressures are building. Manufacturers are having margins squeezed, and workers are having savings and disposable incomes under pressure. None of this is good for the equity market. | 0.2% | 1.4% | -2.0% | 8.2% | + |
| 1/23/11 | …the market index is now most likely to drop 5-10% towards 1260 and falling maybe as low as 1206- 1220. | -0.4% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 2.1% | – |
| 1/9/11 | I am on the record with my belief that during 1Q2011 the S&P 500 could lift to maybe 1290… So call me bullish for the 1st Quarter. | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.0% | + |
| 1/2/11 | If all goes well, I think 2011 will see continued improvement in the major equity market indexes. Based on improving corporate fundamentals and modest global economic growth, I believe the S&P 500 could lift from 1250 at present to maybe 1450. I think there are too many problems in the financial sector for the S&P to return to the 1576 high point of October 2007. I don’t anticipate a 1500+ level for the S&P 500 until sometime in 2012. | -0.2% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 0.7% | – |
| 12/12/10 | …I anticipate further gains for the S&P. I am looking forward only a couple weeks til the start of earnings season in January before the next pull-back, and then full-steam ahead til middle or end of March. | 0.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | -1.2% | + |
| 11/28/10 | …it is my firm belief that…US, German and Japanese stock prices are rising and are still attractive… | 3.0% | 6.1% | 11.7% | 5.0% | + |
| 10/31/10 | My gut tells me the market is going higher. | 3.3% | 1.8% | 8.6% | 4.5% | + |
| 9/19/10 | …I am staying mostly on the sidelines.” On Friday afternoon, I turned a bit bearish… | 0.0% | 2.0% | 8.8% | 2.1% | – |
| 9/12/10 | …I am staying mostly on the sidelines. | 1.9% | 4.3% | 9.9% | 6.0% | – |
| 8/22/10 | The key, I think, is to hold on, in cash if you feel so inclined, or in portfolios designed for “safety”, and to wait until the next pull-back in equity prices. | -1.7% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 10.3% | – |
| 8/1/10 | …for now at least the market seems headed higher. | 0.2% | -6.8% | 5.1% | 11.9% | – |
| 7/25/10 | …I think there will be higher prices, but possibly not for long, and not significantly higher. …At some point, possibly in September or October…[my] crystal ball is flashing S&P 950 and then 880, still. | 1.0% | -5.7% | 5.9% | 17.0% | – |
| 7/18/10 | …we anticipate adding to long positions into weakness early this coming week with stops placed under 1040, looking for a rise into the 1130 to 1150 area. …I don’t think we are headed to S&P 880 yet. | 4.1% | 2.0% | 9.6% | 23.8% | + |
| 7/11/10 | …I’m mildly bullish, with concerns the bottom could fall out at any time. | -0.7% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 22.2% | + |
| 7/3/10 | …there is a better than 50% likelihood that the crash stops here, at least for now. | 6.5% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 31.6% | + |
| 6/27/10 | I suppose there is a good chance now that the S&P can be drop-kicked all the way from 1077…up to somewhere near 1100…. Then…Mr Market is most probably going to be looking at the lucky number 888… Next week…ought to be a good one. | -4.3% | 2.9% | 6.9% | 21.7% | 0 |
| 6/20/10 | I think the Euro is headed south again. …and with it, equity prices. | -3.5% | -3.9% | 1.1% | 15.6% | + |
| 6/13/10 | …equity markets will crash and cash will move in from the sidelines as traders watch the quantitative easing push stock prices into a rebound. | 2.2% | 0.5% | -4.9% | 16.1% | – |
| 5/23/10 | Risk is still extremely high and equity rallies over the coming weeks should be used to lighten risk exposure. | -0.3% | 1.7% | -0.2% | 23.0% | + |
| 5/9/10 | Capital markets still need to correct the excesses of the past year. In other words; we have experienced the Bull phase, and now must experience the Bear phase… | -2.0% | -9.0% | -3.3% | 15.7% | + |
| 4/25/10 | …I don’t think the Fed has much in reserve… Soon they will have to reduce the size of their balance sheet exposure to rising interest rates. That tightening will not be good for equity prices. …I say something is about to break here… | -0.8% | -11.4% | -9.0% | 11.8% | + |
| 4/4/10 | I feel strongly that the coming week will not be as bullish as the past week. …prices of stocks and bonds in the US could break soon. | 0.8% | -1.2% | -13.5% | 12.2% | + |
| 3/14/10 | …we might not have long to see a sell-off scenario play out. | 1.3% | 5.2% | -5.1% | 9.2% | – |
| 2/7/10 | Early on in the week, I am anticipating a bit of strength, but I also think that the buying will move prices into the gunsights of traders waiting to hit the bids to offload stock positions… | 3.6% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 25.0% | – |
| 1/24/10 | …now we expect a series of lower lows and lower corrective highs… Traders are advised to avoid purchases and to look for any strength to hit the bids and lower their risk exposure. | -0.7% | 0.8% | 11.0% | 18.2% | – |
| 1/9/10 | …your risk of entry or holding equities at this level is much greater than normal. | 0.3% | -6.9% | 4.3% | 12.1% | + |
| 12/6/09 | My crystal ball is showing me an 8-handle for the S&P 500 in the next six months. | 1.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 11.8% | – |
| 11/29/09 | The risks in the market are very high. | 0.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 11.5% | – |
| 11/1/09 | The market is set to crash…this pull-back will be quick like Oct 1987, but nothing as severe. | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 17.1% | – |
| 10/25/09 | …I do not believe the coming market pull-back will be all that serious – probably down to maybe 900 on the S&P…it would be quick and dirty and then recover fairly quickly as well before going higher. | -2.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 10.9% | – |
| 10/11/09 | I am now short…-5.35% stocks. | 2.0% | 1.6% | 6.6% | 9.1% | – |
| 10/4/09 | I’m short -7.0%, just so you know where my beliefs lie. | 3.4% | 0.5% | 8.9% | 11.3% | – |
| 9/13/09 | …my leaning is clearly toward a pullback in the equity market to put PE multiples back in line with earnings…there is a clear and present danger. | 1.5% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | – |
| 8/30/09 | The market seems to be shouting “Overbought and overextended”… This is a good time to be extra cautious. | 0.5% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | – |
| 8/23/09 | …there could be a rush to the exits, with a swift move down to 950 for the S&P. The probabilities are growing. | -0.5% | 3.4% | 6.8% | 2.1% | – |
| 8/16/09 | The risks continue to grow… | 4.7% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 9.8% | – |
| 8/9/09 | …something big is about to happen…, and I don’t think it will be friendly to…equity Bulls. | -2.7% | 2.6% | 5.9% | 7.6% | – |
| 8/1/09 | …to be long in the market today, …especially equities, is a high risk proposition…be cautious here. | 0.4% | -0.5% | 6.3% | 12.3% | – |
| 7/26/09 | …to be long the market today is a high risk proposition. | 2.1% | 4.7% | 11.3% | 12.2% | – |
| 7/11/09 | Reading [the] charts, I can find very, very few that make me think Mr. Market will not see 800 before 1,000 on the S&P. | 5.6% | 10.4% | 18.2% | 21.7% | – |
| 7/4/09 | …there is still ample power in the US equity market to boost the S&P from 896 to 950, and perhaps even 1000…I continue to look for sector rotation as the S&P tests 880, and briefly lower possibly as short sellers get set up to be squeezed. | 0.3% | 11.9% | 14.6% | 19.1% | + |
| 6/20/09 | …not a good time to be bullish in the equity markets. | 3.8% | 6.8% | 19.6% | 20.2% | – |
| 6/6/09 | …we are selling into strength and buying into weakness, still believing the market is in a trading range. | -1.6% | -6.3% | 6.8% | 15.7% | + |
| 5/24/09 | …trend and momentum indicators are telling us their advance is tired, and the likelihood of their retreat is near. …the results of this phase of the battle will be known in the next sixty days. | 3.8% | -1.0% | 12.7% | 21.2% | – |
| 4/26/09 | …I’m long less than 15% and almost all of that is in goldminers and a few specialized oilers, waiting for a break-down so that I can buy puts. | 5.8% | 4.1% | 14.2% | 40.7% | – |
| 4/12/09 | …US stocks have put in their lows…there will be during 2009 a re-test of those lows… the S&P…may reach 950-1000 as the shorts get squeezed further… | -3.1% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 41.1% | 0 |
| 2/22/09 | I predict a sudden turn-around in equity prices in the first half of the week. …We started to put capital to work on Friday, and I anticipate more to come this week. | -5.7% | 8.4% | 19.5% | 48.4% | – |
| 2/15/09 | …the next break-out move of more than 10 percent will be higher. …That’s my short-term thinking. For the whole year, I think the equity market will result in a series of higher highs and higher lows… | -2.0% | 0.7% | 11.9% | 40.5% | – |
| 1/25/09 | I am waiting on the S&P 500 to rally above 855, which I expect, which would be followed by a rally…the market may take until April to get into high gear. | -1.3% | -8.6% | 3.5% | 29.6% | 0 |
| 1/4/09 | …I don’t expect to see a booming equity market until late in the first quarter 2009, and probably not until after earnings season is underway early in 2Q09. In the meantime…I am bullish and expect prices to gradually lift starting any day now; however, I continue to expect a range-bound or side-tracking market… | -6.2% | -10.3% | -9.2% | 23.1% | – |
| 12/21/08 | …the year 2009 will, I believe, be so much better than 2008. | 2.2% | -4.6% | -7.5% | 29.2% | + |
| 12/7/08 | Next week looks to have higher prices. | -4.5% | 0.0% | -20.9% | 21.2% | – |
| 11/23/08 | …my feeling is that there will be a significant rally if the Tim Geithner to Treasury story is factual… | -0.4% | 1.9% | -10.2% | 28.1% | – |
| 11/16/08 | To hazard a guess as to when the Bull breaks out of the cycle bottom trading range…around late February. | 0.1% | 6.3% | -2.0% | 28.7% | + |
| 11/2/08 | …portfolios are beginning to recover, which, I believe, will continue to be the case… | -4.9% | -9.9% | -13.2% | 10.4% | – |
| 10/26/08 | …pretty soon, we’ll all be in the money, riding the Bull. …We are within striking distance of the absolute bottom. | 13.8% | 1.0% | -0.4% | 25.6% | – |
| 10/12/08 | Prices have hit a bottom. Whether that is rock bottom; only time will tell! I believe it is… I declare the Bear dead. | -4.8% | -10.4% | -13.3% | 9.3% | – |
| 10/5/08 | …nobody knows when the equity market complex technically will revert from Bear to Bull – I say it has done so notionally this past two weeks… | -5.1% | -4.8% | -12.2% | 0.8% | – |
| 9/28/08 | …the 2007-2008 Bear has ended and why prices will now start to work through a series of higher highs and higher lows… | -4.5% | -15.0% | -21.1% | -6.9% | – |
| 9/7/08 | …the end of the Bear is one step removed. Just one more leg down – probably 10-12% — is what the sellers will take to complete the bottom… | -5.9% | -21.4% | -33.3% | -17.6% | 0 |
| 7/20/08 | This coming week may not be as good as the last one, I believe. | -2.0% | 0.5% | -24.9% | -22.5% | + |
| 7/6/08 | …broad market indexes in the US and elsewhere, for the most part, are over-sold. They may rebound in a summer rally—with the operative word being ‘may’. | -1.9% | 2.6% | -11.0% | -29.5% | + |
| 6/29/08 | …there could possibly be one final major sell-off in Sept-Oct with an ensuing pre-US election rally that could be the start of the next Bull. …That timing, perhaps October, will be when I will move out of bonds and cash, back into gold and equities… | -0.5% | 0.3% | -5.2% | -30.0% | – |
| 6/22/08 | If the DJIA breaks below…11,700-11,750…, and I think it will this week, there could a rapid drop to 11,000. That would likely be the end of the second major selling wave. A couple months later, the third and possibly last one could take the DJIA down to 10,000… | -2.9% | -2.7% | -4.8% | -30.2% | + |
| 6/15/08 | …it’s not a good time to be long the market… It ought to be an interesting week ahead. Painful for the Bulls, I think. | -3.1% | -8.4% | -8.0% | -32.5% | + |
| 5/25/08 | …the equity and debt markets are not going higher any time soon. | -0.6% | -4.6% | -6.7% | -33.7% | + |
| 5/4/08 | …I anticipate seeing share prices rise for a bit longer, and the bullish Dow Theory signal will bring more bids to the market. Traders should not ignore that evidence. …this “rush into stocks” is merely a Bear market rally, but one that (with good timing) maybe should not be missed… | -1.0% | -2.9% | -11.1% | -36.0% | – |
| 4/27/08 | …this is still a Bear market. | 2.0% | 0.0% | -9.6% | -37.3% | + |
| 3/30/08 | If this were only a typical Bear market, where index price levels would drop -20% to -30%, following which life as we know it would go on. If only… But, I fear, it’s too late for that. | 3.8% | 4.8% | -3.0% | -38.7% | + |
| 3/23/08 | I expect the DJIA to grind down to 11200, where it will begin to form a base. That may take weeks or months… | -2.0% | 1.9% | -0.5% | -39.7% | – |
| 2/24/08 | …I see nothing happening to inspire the Bulls. I think the market is biding time until the next decline. | -2.9% | -2.2% | 1.6% | -45.1% | + |
| 2/10/08 | …this Bear market will be a bloodbath before it’s over. | 0.7% | -2.3% | 3.7% | -37.6% | + |
| 2/3/08 | …the equity market Bear trend exists and that any intermediate and short-term rallies are counter-trend. …the primary Bear is just half over. | -3.0% | -3.4% | 1.9% | -38.7% | + |
| 1/27/08 | The Bears are in control. The probabilities are close to 50:50 whether…they decide to run south-east like 2000-2002 or due south like 1987. …I don’t see signs of a return of the Bull. | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | -37.6% | – |
| 1/20/08 | …the Bear is half over. Using the DJIA as a measuring device, the cycle top was 14200 and my target for the low is 10,000. …the worst is yet to come. Following a brief attempt to rally from a short-term oversold condition…, I anticipate more losses. Prudent traders ought to consider selling their risky positions into the strength of rallies… | 4.0% | 2.4% | 5.9% | -36.5% | + |
| 1/13/08 | Although there may be pockets of Bull support, the resistance of the Bears will win the day, and equity prices will continue to seek lower levels. | -7.5% | -3.5% | -6.2% | -40.4% | + |
| 1/6/08 | I doubt there will be much of a rally here…this is a Bear market…the primary trend is now down and each cycle will have lower lows and lower highs until the Bear is finished. | 0.0% | -6.3% | -3.1% | -35.8% | + |
| 12/30/07 | …my take on the market as ready to fall under the weight of inflation and a stagnating economy in North America, Europe and Japan is unchanged. | -5.3% | -6.1% | -6.7% | -36.5% | + |
| 12/23/07 | During the liquidity crisis and tightening process, I anticipate the US equity markets to possibly fall back to…10,000 for the DJIA and 2000 for the Nasdaq Composite. …the next drop in the market could be the big one…another October 19, 1987… | -3.3% | -11.1% | -10.4% | -41.7% | 0 |
| 12/16/07 | The market topped out in October. From that point, global equity markets will experience a series of lower lows and lower highs… | 3.5% | -7.8% | -8.0% | -38.8% | + |
| 12/9/07 | …the world of Financial Armageddon is beginning to unfold before us. | -4.6% | -6.3% | -12.9% | -42.4% | + |
| 12/3/07 | Because of the seriousness of the underlying problems, however, I still believe this is a Bear market… | 3.0% | -1.7% | -9.9% | -42.6% | + |
| 11/25/07 | …the market is now ready for another recovery rally, probably to lower high levels again. | 4.7% | 6.5% | -1.8% | -36.9% | + |
| 11/18/07 | There may be a small bounce here, largely due to a further pull-back in commodity prices…, but at the end of the present long-term cycle, I do expect all ten major sectors of the equity market to be significantly lower. | -0.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% | -47.5% | + |
| 11/5/07 | All we can do at this point is watch prices. RSI and MACD don’t lie. Focus on that and save yourself the grief of another 2000-2002 Bear market. | -4.2% | -1.1% | -11.0% | -39.8% | + |
| 10/28/07 | Henry Paulson, Ben Bernanke…are soon all to go up in flames. Why? Businesses and consumers will reject the policy. Traders will sell their stocks… In any event, the game is over for America. …Those of you who wish to chase prices higher…are ignoring a clear and present danger, capital risk. | -2.5% | -4.7% | -11.6% | -38.1% | + |
| 10/21/07 | Here we go again; the fleecing of the Middle Class. It happens every four or five years and it is never pretty…it could get downright ugly. | 2.3% | -4.4% | -13.0% | -41.8% | + |
| 10/14/07 | …the best tactic is to go with the flow, staying with rising prices until they start to pull-back. | -2.7% | -4.4% | -8.6% | -38.9% | – |
| 9/2/07 | …the market Bears are going to be sent reeling on Tuesday. …it is not as bad as the Bears believe. | -1.2% | 3.4% | -0.6% | -16.6% | + |
| 8/19/07 | …capital markets are unlikely to start another slippery slide downhill for another two to five months. | 1.5% | 5.8% | 0.4% | -11.6% | + |
| 8/12/07 | …there is strength in the old Bull yet…until mid-October. Until then, I expect more of the same wildly gyrating market action. | -0.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | -11.0% | + |
| 8/5/07 | …leaning, but not totally convinced, to the notion that a severe broad market pullback of epic Bear market proportions in process. | -1.0% | 0.3% | 2.8% | -13.7% | – |
| 7/28/07 | I believe the US equity market levels will hold here, but there is a predominant negative bias… | -0.4% | -2.8% | 2.7% | -14.0% | 0 |
| 7/14/07 | …it will be clear sailing ahead for equities this summer. …the conditions are now right for a final blow-off and commencement of a secular Bear, possibly September-October. …Traders can still protect their assets by eliminating debt, buying puts, writing calls or just plain selling the stocks… | -0.5% | -7.9% | 0.3% | -18.7% | 0 |
| 6/17/07 | …I think the market has a long way to go in this summer rally. | -2.2% | 1.0% | -3.1% | -12.3% | – |
| 6/10/07 | I added on Friday morning the unequivocal assessment that there was likely to be a recovery… At week’s end, …I still believe that to be the case. But I also believe we will be hit with a Bear market, in the not too distant future. | 1.5% | 0.6% | -3.7% | -11.2% | + |
| 6/3/07 | There is no question that the market is going higher. | -2.0% | -0.9% | -5.3% | -8.8% | – |
| 5/27/07 | …I am not yet convinced the Bulls have lost control. Soon maybe, but not quite yet. | 0.8% | -0.8% | -2.6% | -7.8% | + |
| 5/20/07 | The pressure to hold this market from imploding must be fierce. …Mean reversion is going to occur. It’s just a matter of when. The bigger the amount of juice injected into this market to keep it growing, the bigger will be the fall to reality. | -0.5% | -0.8% | -5.2% | -8.6% | + |
| 4/28/07 | The next shoe to drop will take the Dow all the way down to 10,700. The third shoe will drop the Dow to maybe 9,800, which would be a mid-size Bear market of about -25 pct. Now the problems are worse this time, so maybe the Dow goes lower. | 1.7% | 3.2% | -1.6% | -4.6% | – |
| 4/21/07 | There may be one intermediate cycle peak before the big spike and blow-off or the present one may the final one. …the faster and higher the broad market continues, the more I believe we are going to witness a 1987-type correction, only this one won’t have just a single shoe to drop. After a bounce back…there will be a Bull Trap and the broad market will hit trap door number two. | 0.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | -6.2% | + |
| 3/10/07 | …my thinking is that the next two years will be a gradual process of lower highs and lower lows similar perhaps to 1973-74. At its worst point, I expect to see the Dow 30 index at a level below 10,000. | -0.3% | 2.3% | 7.2% | -6.5% | + |
| 3/3/07 | This is not a time to be a buyer of stocks. Let the prices fall where they may. | 2.4% | 4.6% | 11.8% | -5.1% | – |
| 2/17/07 | I remain nervous. | -4.2% | -1.7% | 4.3% | -7.3% | + |
| 2/10/07 | I kinda feel the stock market is a couple months away from reversing the primary bullish trend. …So we might now finally be in the terminal phase of the stock market cycle. …If the cycle moves forward much as I suspect, we’ll see a rolling top with the Dow stuck in the 11800-12450 range for the next four or five months. …In any case, I am looking for Dow 10000 (2007)… | 1.8% | -3.2% | 4.9% | -5.9% | – |
| 12/30/06 | I continue to believe that: “Big money is sending sell orders into the market. The timing for when the plug (ie, the supporting bids) gets pulled is pretty soon.” | -0.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.0% | – |
| 12/16/06 | …the signs are noticeable that this party is almost over…a recession might not occur until mid-year 2007. I expect a severe correction to equity market prices before then. …once the selling starts in the U.S. equity market, the result will look like a combination of 2001-2 and October 1987. It’s coming. …The timing for when the plug (ie, the supporting bids) gets pulled pretty soon… | -0.4% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 4.4% | – |
| 11/25/06 | I continue to believe the equity market is topping in the U.S. | 2.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 7.2% | – |
| 11/18/06 | …now this rally appears to be consistent with a move that could go through to year end ” similar to 4Q99. | -1.0% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 0.4% | + |
| 11/11/06 | …the market will soon take a position, which I think is going to be negative. | 1.2% | 2.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | – |
| 11/4/06 | Momentum has clearly shifted this week to a negative bias in the leading U.S. market. The prospects of prices moving higher by say +500 points on the DJIA versus -500 points down are probably not more than 1 in 10. | 0.3% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | – |
| 10/21/06 | …equity prices are mostly over-priced. | 0.1% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 11.5% | – |
| 10/14/06 | …the so-called Bear market is looking awfully like a roaring Bull. That’s the reality. …Upward and onward, but not forever. …The…tape…is still under control of the Bulls at present. That means traders need to be positioned that way, even though I am sitting with a Sell button hair trigger. …The stars are now aligned for one massive sell-off. | 0.6% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 9.6% | + |
| 10/7/06 | I’m going to tell Bear-oriented traders that they have to grin and bear it, hanging in with equities…until the broad market decides it’s time to swoon. “Swoon” time, though, is getting closer ” perhaps the week of October 16… …you buy this market higher at your peril. | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 15.6% | + |
| 9/30/06 | …someday soon, those with the cash will be king and queen… The tape…is under control of the Bulls at present, and we have to be positioned that way. …I am not so inclined to suggest that rising prices might be the case for many weeks. | 1.5% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 17.0% | – |
| 9/23/06 | …this coalition of economic forces hitting the market from all angles on October 17-18 may terminate the stock market cycle. And, reverse the trend from Bull to Bear. …what we’re experiencing presently is a pump and dump, as Smart Money is going to the sidelines… | 0.4% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 15.1% | – |
| 9/9/06 | …he is advising a much heavier cash weighting for the next couple months. I cannot disagree. | 1.7% | 4.1% | 8.3% | 14.2% | – |
| 9/2/06 | All things considered, I think we are still early in the Bear, which started May 10…I’ve still got my sights on Dow cycle bottom numbers of 10170 (high), 9430 (medium), and 8680 (low)… Can this market rally through the Fall to new highs…? I don’t think so. | 0.0% | 2.8% | 6.4% | 10.5% | – |
| 8/19/06 | …the U.S. equity market is not yet ready to take a dive, but is likely to make one more significant attempt like in mid-June and again in mid-July to surpass the Dow = 11667 and S&P 500 = 1327 highs that followed immediately after the May 10 FOMC meeting. This time, new 2006 cycle highs are likely to be set… I now think there is still short-term upside to equities, …perhaps for a couple months, perhaps for several weeks. | 0.3% | 2.1% | 7.9% | 14.0% | + |
| 8/12/06 | The Dow Transports, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 are all indicating serious problems ahead for U.S. equities. …The U.S. equity market is clearly roiled. Conventional sector rotation is out the window. | 2.3% | 3.9% | 8.7% | 14.0% | – |
| 8/5/06 | A week ago I wrote: “I don’t think with the case I have made that stock prices are going to new and all-time record highs. In fact I think this week was just another correction in a Bear market. I would be looking to sell into strength.” Nothing’s changed. | -0.6% | 1.9% | 7.2% | 13.9% | – |
| 7/29/06 | Why do I say that I expect a sharp correction like 1987? Well, I do not see enough recognition of the realities… I think it will happen quickly, with weeks of 700 to 1,000 point down days on the Dow Industrials index. …I don’t think with the case I have made that stock prices are going to new and all-time record highs. In fact I think this week was just another correction in a Bear market. | -0.1% | 2.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | – |
| 7/15/06 | …we can expect the Bear to terminate between October 2006 and March 2007. …This is definitely a Bear Market… | 2.1% | 4.1% | 10.4% | 24.3% | – |
| 7/8/06 | As the economic message becomes clearer, the hopes of Dow 12,000 will fade. Then Dow 11,000. Then Dow 10,000. Then… Maybe I’ll try the Jeff Foxworthy stand-up comedy routine: “You might be in a Bear Market if;” It’s now almost midnight. | -2.6% | 0.3% | 6.8% | 22.5% | – |
| 7/1/06 | …the over-extended period of bullishness we now face (note I didn’t say Bull Market), caused by excessive money printing, is likely to go on a couple months longer. …this equity market is now ready to rally, but the move (as I see it) is likely to be a final attempt to set a new cycle high for the 2002-2006 Bull market, and will fail, thereby confirming my view that the Bear started after the May 10 Fed rate hike. | -0.6% | -0.1% | 4.3% | 19.7% | – |
| 6/24/06 | …the summer rally (if there is one) appears to be a case of rotation of stock groups ahead of the next major down leg. | 2.4% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 20.2% | – |
| 6/17/06 | Wake up. The Bear has won. …The question now is, when does the Bear get hungry again. …nothing more than a Dead Cat Bounce as I see it. | 0.8% | 1.6% | 6.4% | 21.2% | – |
| 6/10/06 | …we are now in the claws of the bear. …Stocks are breaking down. | 0.3% | 1.8% | 5.1% | 24.0% | – |
| 6/3/06 | Now we are likely to see some sidetracking and further declines. | -2.3% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 19.2% | + |
| 5/20/06 | They’ll probably manage that for a week or two until the Snow’man manages to get a job placement via CNBC. But as soon as he departs, just watch the negative action in the market… | -0.2% | -0.8% | 3.2% | 20.1% | – |
| 5/14/06 | …within days I believe you are going to become frightened. …A week ago, the U.S. equity market was almost dead. Then Thursday-Friday along came Bush-Snow-Bernanke to try to juice it. It was a last gasp. | -2.5% | -5.0% | -2.1% | 17.6% | + |
| 4/8/06 | …there is greater chance of a pullback in U.S. equity prices here than a continued lifting to multi-year highs. I’m in agreement with people…who say that the Bear will be severe, possibly as much as 25 or 30 percent off the peak. |
0.9% | 2.0% | -2.3% | 13.3% | – |
| 4/1/06 | We’re in the final inning of an overtime game. It’s a time in the market when people reach for things beyond their grasp. Quality and value becomes mundane; it’s buzz that traders want today. And they just might get it for a couple more months, but not much longer. …My warning is clear: In October 1987, the same people…a week before the crash had been saying pretty much what their sons and daughters have been saying today. | -0.1% | 0.8% | -2.1% | 11.3% | – |
| 3/11/06 | …equity markets are not yet ready to go bearish. …given that markets never flat-line – I think they are going higher, just like Dec-99. …What I suspect they are going to get is more printing of money ” enough to power these equity indexes higher… | 1.6% | 0.2% | -2.5% | 8.0% | + |
| 3/4/06 | …for sure, the image of a great equity bear is now on the horizon… | 0.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 9.7% | – |
| 2/25/06 | “Changes in Lattitudes” will, however, become my favorite tune in 2006. Like the equity market, I’ll be going south. | -1.2% | -0.1% | -1.6% | 7.2% | + |
| 2/19/06 | Whether it is the 1Q06 or 4Q06, there are factors at work that will pull down this market… What concerns me is that 2006 may turn out like 2000, …that craziness takes hold of the buy-side. …What with the Treasury pumping, the new Fed head blowing air, and the bond market on wheels, what was to stop this equity market? The simple answer is nothing. Certainly not common sense. | -0.2% | 1.7% | -1.2% | 13.0% | – |
| 2/11/06 | …the underpinnings are in place for serious economic problems ahead. That spells bad news for the equity market. | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 15.3% | – |
| 2/4/06 | …momentum is failing. …an objective technical analyst would say that the indicators are turning bearish. | -0.2% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 13.7% | – |
| 1/28/06 | …the underpinnings of a seemingly strong equity market are starting to snap. …the U.S. equity market is getting close to the end of its four-year bull phase. The cycle is almost complete, and the trend is soon likely to go down, starting this quarter. | -2.0% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 13.0% | – |
| 1/21/06 | …this year the long running Bull probably has run out of steam and the downside potential is much greater. | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 12.5% | – |
| 1/9/06 | The 2002-2006 bull market in U.S. equities will soon end as more capital leaves America…making a normal return on capital in 2006 will be a challenge… | -0.9% | -2.0% | 0.5% | 11.0% | + |
| 12/31/05 | All the major U.S. equity indexes were down. …It’s just the start of something big. | 1.6% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 11.4% | – |
| 12/24/05 | …the 2002-2006 bull market is coming to an end… So I still have 78-pct in cash or near-cash… This coming week may see a sell-off in the weakest stocks, but I think the broad sell-off will not likely start until the 1st or 2nd week of January. | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 12.9% | – |
| 12/17/05 | By late next week, I think you’ll be clearly seeing the bearish patterns… I still have 78-pct in cash or near-cash…it looks like a year-end rally coming to the year-end, and no place to go… but down. | -0.3% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 12.6% | – |
| 12/11/05 | …the U.S. equity…markets…are transitioning from secular bull to a bear phase. …I cannot tell at this point whether that bear will be long-term…or intermediate or short term. | 0.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 13.1% | – |
| 12/3/05 | …I am 78-pct invested in cash or equivalent. | -0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 11.5% | + |
| 11/26/05 | I continue to be 80-pct invested in cash or equivalent… today’s economic and market conditions represent a much greater risk to capital than the opportunities that are available at the current price of equities. …I scaled down my expectations of an average 24+ pct annual return on capital to just +6 pct returns. | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 11.4% | – |
| 11/19/05 | At this juncture, I am generally not seeking capital gains, but have instead switched to a strictly defensive posture whereby capital preservation is of primary importance to me. I continue to be 80 pct invested in cash or equivalent… | 0.2% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 11.6% | – |
| 11/12/05 | Today I am growing monetary capital at the rate of between 5 and 6 pct per year. With 80 pct cash or equivalent, I am locked, loaded and ready to fire. By 3Q next year, we’ll see who got rich in 2006. …There is no confidence in this rally. Not just by me, mind you. | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 13.5% | – |
| 11/5/05 | …there is a current rally in U.S. stocks, but it’s a little like Wall Street lemonade. I am not drinking it because I am too focused on the lemons. | 0.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 12.7% | – |
| 10/29/05 | Intermediate term – bearish (9200); Short term – leaning bearish, but not surprised if markets continue up till year end. …Caveat emptor. In fact try not to emptor! | 1.3% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 13.3% | – |
| 10/22/05 | …my forecast is bearish for U.S. equity markets, with a long-term cycle bottom for the Dow 30 to be established at about the Dow=9200 level. Moreover I believe that long-term traders, i.e., those with a greater than one-year time horizon for equity purchases, ought to be 80 pct in cash. | 0.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 15.8% | – |
| 10/15/05 | …the Dow will drop to the 9200-9300 level this quarter or next, and that will be the bottom of the long-term cycle. | 0.8% | 3.3% | 7.8% | 14.9% | – |
| 10/8/05 | Due to the anticipated major weakness for both stocks and bonds in the weeks ahead, 80-pct cash weighting ought to be considered. …I am reasonably confident that the technical indicators…are telling us that the direction is down, for stocks and bonds. | 0.2% | 2.6% | 8.7% | 14.8% | – |
| 10/1/05 | …I’m not too excited. Interest rates, commodity prices and most macro-economic factors weigh against this broad market lifting much further. …the Dow may run up to the glass ceiling of 10,700, but…I seriously question why traders would want to accept the risks involved in taking it higher. | -3.2% | -2.0% | 1.8% | 10.3% | + |
| 9/24/05 | I’m betting that the Fed Rate will go 5.50 before there is a peak. …after a serious bear cycle in the market sometime between now and then, I believe that the equity markets in the world will turn long-term bullish before that peak in rates. | -0.1% | -2.0% | 4.4% | 9.9% | – |
| 9/10/05 | For now it’s up, but that cycle may soon end… | -0.8% | -4.5% | 1.2% | 6.1% | – |
| 8/27/05 | …the probability of a long-term equity bear market happening now, and through into at least the 4Q05, are probably 60:40. If the Dow 30 index were to drop another 100 or so points, I can’t see how it would not stop before hitting around 9,800, and then about 9,200, and possibly at a cycle bottom in the high 8000s. | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.6% | 7.6% | – |
| 8/20/05 | the broad U.S. equities are not moving higher. There are no drivers in place to make that happen. …Armageddon on Wall Street gets a little closer month by month…protect your portfolio. At the very least, do not chase stocks higher on rallies. | -0.8% | -0.9% | 1.7% | 6.1% | + |
| 8/13/05 | Armageddon on Wall Street gets a little closer month by month, so protect yourself. …The U.S. equity market is dead in the water…why bother buying U.S. equities or bonds or real estate today when tomorrow there will be many bargains to choose from? | -1.0% | -0.5% | -0.2% | 5.2% | + |
| 7/30/05 | I remain unimpressed with the U.S. equity market, believing it to be trading at too high a risk to potential reward level. …be ultra cautious here. | -1.0% | -2.2% | -4.6% | 3.6% | + |
| 7/23/05 | This is the time to be ultra cautious. …the end of the bull cycle is near and readers ought to be taking steps to protect their portfolios. | 0.5% | -0.9% | -4.2% | 2.8% | + |
| 7/16/05 | …a very good week; but it may be one of the last ones… This is the time to be ultra cautious. …the end of the bull cycle is near and readers ought to be taking steps to protect their portfolios. …lock in your profits, and sit in cash if you want to. | 0.6% | -0.1% | -3.6% | 2.3% | + |
| 6/18/05 | …prudence dictates going with the odds relative to the situation at hand. The cards are stacked up against this market going higher. | -2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | + |
| 6/11/05 | …the broad equity market in the U.S. is in a bull trend, but the intermediate term cyclic phase started down on the first day of the year. …Now I think the short-term cycle will head down, and work in sync with the falling intermediate-term cycle… I think that cycle bottom for the Dow will be around 9,800… | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | – |
| 6/4/05 | …I believe an Intra-Year cyclic bear phase is about to unfold, possibly taking the Dow down some 700 points, but not more. | 0.3% | -0.2% | 2.0% | 5.0% | – |
| 5/28/05 | The rally now appears to be toppy and ready to continue its decline. …just how is the broad equity market going higher? | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 8.1% | – |
| 5/7/05 | …I think next week will see lower equity…prices. | -1.5% | 2.2% | 5.5% | 12.9% | + |
| 4/30/05 | …I continue to urge caution. | 1.4% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 12.9% | – |
| 4/23/05 | The big score to come next week will be the downside price action of the stocks that trade on the NYSE and Nasdaq. I say that because I am afraid that the bear claws have just started to sink in. | 0.0% | 2.8% | 6.2% | 12.7% | – |
| 4/16/05 | I say it’s not over until the sell-side stops shooting the bull, which is probably good for a long while yet. | 1.4% | 2.4% | 7.2% | 14.4% | – |
| 4/9/05 | …I don’t hear that clarion call for a bull market. Last week, I wrote, “I don’t see enough technical strength ” or much at all ” to stem the bearish ebb tide to equity prices in the Dow. ” And, nothing happened this week to change my mind. Nothing. | -3.0% | -1.3% | 2.6% | 9.1% | + |
| 4/2/05 | I don’t see enough technical strength ” or much at all ” to stem the bearish ebb tide to equity prices in the Dow. …We’ll have to wait until Monday or Tuesday to see if the other major indexes also weaken further. I suspect they will. | 0.4% | -1.3% | 1.3% | 11.5% | + |
| 3/25/05 | …the loss to the broad market averages may just be starting. Of that, I’m not so sure, but I do believe that next week will be the bearer of more bad news to the bulls. | 0.2% | -1.9% | 2.3% | 11.0% | – |
| 3/5/05 | …corporate insiders are selling their stocks. You might want to consider doing the same. | -1.5% | -3.4% | -2.4% | 3.8% | + |
| 2/26/05 | …the Dow lift-off was a high-risk buy, and not likely to last more than a few days. What conservative long-term investors have to be seeking now is not capital growth, but preservation of capital. …Dow 10,842 could quickly become Dow 10,600, followed by Dow 10,400. | 1.8% | -1.8% | -0.5% | 7.1% | + |
| 2/18/05 | Your first concern going forward ought to be to preserve capital. | 0.2% | -2.5% | -0.9% | 7.2% | + |
| 2/11/05 | …10,800 is in nose-bleed territory, and caution should be the order of the day. …I can’t see the rocket fuel for this rocket. It looks to me like, “Houston, we don’t have lift-off.” | -0.3% | -0.6% | -3.8% | 6.2% | + |
| 2/4/05 | So what does a slowing of the economy plus a tightening of money liquidity by the Fed almost always lead to? Yes, yes, yes ” lower stock prices. | 0.2% | 1.4% | -2.5% | 5.2% | – |
| 1/29/05 | …the trend is still down. | 1.7% | 2.4% | -2.1% | 7.6% | – |
| 1/22/05 | It’s going to get worse here for the bulls. …these charts are reflecting further weakness to come in the weeks ahead. | 1.5% | 2.3% | -1.0% | 9.5% | – |
| 1/7/05 | The U.S. equity market is due for a strong pull-back. …this short-term down trend has just started for U.S. equities and will possibly go on for a few weeks. | -0.1% | 1.4% | -0.4% | 9.1% | – |
