In this entry, we update our review of the weekly “Technical Market Insight” of BusinessWeek online by Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist for Standard & Poor’s, since early 2003. The table below quotes forecast highlights from the cited source and shows the performance of the S&P 500 Index over various numbers of trading days after the publication date for each item. Grading takes into account more detailed market behavior when appropriate. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific forecasts indicate those graded right (wrong) based on subsequent market behavior, while red zeros denote any complex forecasts graded both right and wrong. We conclude that:
- As indicated by his title, Mark Arbeter’s forecasting approach is strictly technical, utilizing numerous price-volume indications, chart shapes and sentiment indicators.
- He is frequently equivocal and conditional in his advice, and he changes direction frequently. Recommended actions for investors/traders are often unclear and sometimes difficult to locate within the column.
- Based on the weekly schedule of the column, unless his advice is explicitly long-term or intermediate-term, we assign the near-term performance of the market the most weight in assessing Mr. Arbeter’s advice.
- Mark Arbeter’s forecast sample is fairly large, so confidence in the measurement of his accuracy is fairly high.
See Guru Grades for a snapshot of the accuracy of various experts in predicting the direction of the U.S. stock market, including links to evaluations of the commentaries of other individual market pundits and gurus.
| S&P 500 Index | ||||||
| Date | Comments from: Mark Arbeter via Business Week | 5-Day Return | 21-Day Return | 63-Day Return | 254-Day Return | |
| 2/23/09 | …the stalemate between the bears and the bulls is over, and the bears still rule as the downtrend in the market is alive and well. …lows will be taken out… | -5.7% | 8.4% | 19.5% | 48.4% | + |
| 1/26/09 | …we don’t see much to suggest that the market lows won’t be tested in the near term… | -1.3% | -8.6% | 3.5% | 29.6% | + |
| 1/12/09 | …the near- to intermediate-term trend of the stock market remains bullish… | -7.5% | -4.2% | -1.3% | 32.0% | – |
| 12/12/08 | While we think there is still a ceiling on stocks for the next couple of months, we also believe we finally have a floor underneath prices. Short term, the market is a little stretched to the upside, and we believe in need of a minor consolidation or pullback. | 0.9% | -4.2% | -14.3% | 26.1% | – |
| 11/17/08 | …there is more risk to the upside than to the downside in the short- to intermediate-term. | 0.1% | 6.3% | -7.3% | 28.7% | + |
| 11/10/08 | …the market is destined for a fairly long and wide trading range… In the very short term, we do not envision the S&P 500 going all the way back down to test the October lows… | -7.4% | -2.2% | -10.0% | 18.3% | – |
| 10/6/08 | We still believe the stock market is close in time to a major bottom… | -5.1% | -4.8% | -12.2% | 0.8% | – |
| 9/29/08 | We continue to believe that the market is close in time to a major market bottom… | -4.5% | -15.0% | -21.1% | -6.9% | – |
| 9/22/08 | …we do not think the closing low this week will be tested. It appears that the “500” is working on an inverse head-and-shoulder, which would translate into further strength to perhaps the 1300 area, followed by a 3/8 to 5/8 retracement of the rally. | -8.3% | -25.7% | -26.7% | -12.9% | – |
| 9/8/08 | …the process of testing the mid-July lows is almost upon us. | -5.9% | -21.4% | -33.3% | -17.6% | + |
| 9/2/08 | While there are signs a major market bottom may be in the works, …the overwhelming technical evidence suggests that the market has not dug itself out from the throes of the bear market. | -4.2% | -9.1% | -29.8% | -21.5% | + |
| 8/18/08 | …while we think there could be some more upside in the near term, we believe it will be likely that the index fails in this range of resistance and falters back towards the lows in July. | -0.9% | -9.6% | -28.7% | -21.2% | + |
| 8/4/08 | We…remain cautious, and worry that not only will mid-July lows be tested, but we think there is a good possibility they will be broken. | 4.5% | 2.1% | -23.6% | -20.2% | – |
| 7/14/08 | …we might have to see another capitulation or two before seeing at least a temporary bottom to the bear market. | 2.6% | 5.0% | -25.9% | -23.4% | – |
| 6/30/08 | …expect a bounce in the market once the March lows get tested… | -0.5% | 0.3% | -5.2% | -30.0% | – |
| 6/16/08 | …some more price weakness is needed to increase the bearishness among the sentiment tools we rely on, but…the weakness will be contained above the March closing lows of 1273 on the S&P 500. | -3.1% | -8.4% | -8.0% | -32.5% | 0 |
| 6/2/08 | …we see indexes grinding higher for now. | -1.7% | -7.3% | -6.1% | -32.0% | – |
| 5/27/08 | …oil prices are quickly approaching an important intermediate-term peak, and…this may take the temporary lid off of stock prices. | -0.6% | -4.6% | -6.7% | -33.7% | – |
| 5/5/08 | …the intermediate-term trend is now firmly higher. | -1.0% | -2.9% | -11.1% | -36.0% | – |
| 4/28/08 | …signs like diminishing volatility and falling consumer confidence may be signaling a market advance in the months ahead… | 2.0% | 0.0% | -9.6% | -37.3% | – |
| 4/21/08 | The major indices…are knocking at the breakout door once again, and prices appear like they want to see some different territory for a change. | 0.2% | 1.8% | -9.2% | -38.6% | + |
| 4/14/08 | …the stock market is likely to be stuck in the spring mud. | 4.5% | 5.6% | -6.7% | -34.9% | – |
| 3/24/08 | We’ll stick with historical precedents and still believe that the risk is for a move to the upside. | -2.0% | 1.9% | -0.5% | -39.7% | + |
| 3/17/08 | …the worst of the market decline is behind us based on the technical conditions… | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | -38.6% | + |
| 3/10/08 | …market sentiment has swung far enough to the bearish side to suggest that a bottom could be close for the major indexes… | 0.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | -41.0% | + |
| 3/3/08 | …prices are heading lower… Market sentiment is showing plenty of fear, and may be indicating a potential bottom over the next month. | -4.4% | 2.7% | 5.2% | -48.7% | + |
| 2/19/08 | …it would not surprise us to see another move down to at least test the recent lows. There is also the possibility that…we see another leg to the downside. …keep plenty of powder dry for what could be an excellent buying opportunity…in the second quarter. | 2.4% | -3.7% | 5.7% | -42.9% | 0 |
| 2/4/08 | We…at best, still see the major indices reversing from the current lift and heading back down to test last week’s lows. | -3.0% | -3.4% | 1.9% | -38.7% | + |
| 1/14/08 | …the index has a good chance of seeing a counter-trend rally back up to the 1445 to 1470 area…we then expect the S&P 500 to…follow the many other indexes and stocks that have broken down…a potential measured move down to 1249. | -7.5% | -3.5% | -6.2% | -40.4% | – |
| 1/7/08 | We…believe the chances that the 10% correction that we’ve seen turns into something more like a 15% to 20% decline. …a failure [at 1407]…would open the door to another 5% to 10% on the downside. | 0.0% | -6.3% | -3.1% | -35.8% | + |
| 12/10/07 | …the short term could see some backing and filling towards the 1490 level…whether we get the pullback or not, it appears from our perspective that the market will be able to finish 2007 and move into 2008 on a strong note…any major break back below 1490 would throw this bullish call out the window. | -4.6% | -6.3% | -12.9% | -42.4% | – |
| 12/3/07 | …once the candle burns out on this advance, then the market will roll over and head back to the initial lows. | 3.0% | -1.7% | -9.9% | -42.6% | + |
| 11/19/07 | …it may take some more time for major indexes to trace out a bottom… | -0.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% | -47.5% | + |
| 11/12/07 | …it takes weeks of these readings for our indicators to turn bullish. In addition, the other investment polls…need to flip more to the bearish side before a bottom can be traced out. | -0.4% | 3.3% | -6.3% | -36.7% | + |
| 11/5/07 | …a good time to head for the hills for awhile… | -4.2% | -1.1% | -11.0% | -39.8% | + |
| 11/1/07 | While we think the U.S. stock market could trudge higher into the end of the year, we see increased risk, and are raising the yellow flag…use market strength to take profits…most of the gains from the current intermediate-term uptrend are behind us. | -2.2% | -2.4% | -7.5% | -33.3% | + |
| 10/15/07 | …the market has more upside and…the “500” has a good shot of reaching the 1600 to 1650 area before the end of the year. | -2.7% | -4.4% | -8.6% | -38.9% | – |
| 10/8/07 | …this pattern of stair stepping higher is bullish and suggests to us that there will be additional gains down the road. …there is a possibility that the index could pause in the near term, before moving further into unchartered territory. | -0.2% | -2.1% | -8.8% | -41.4% | – |
| 10/1/07 | In the very near term, we are still expecting some type of pullback, a little larger than the one we had in the early part of last week. …we expect a calmer fourth quarter, colder weather, and new highs by many of the major stock market indexes. | 0.4% | -1.0% | -4.4% | -28.0% | – |
| 9/19/07 | …the typical seasonal strength during the last quarter could propel stocks to very nice gains by the end of the year. | -0.2% | 0.7% | -5.4% | -21.1% | – |
| 9/10/07 | …the long awaited market low is finally in…prices will maintain their upward bias off the lows set in mid-August. | 1.7% | 7.8% | 3.8% | -14.0% | + |
| 8/27/07 | …over the next couple of weeks, we’re still looking for some price testing of the recent lows, while over the intermediate term, we think the market can once again start to surprise on the upside. | 1.5% | 4.0% | -1.8% | -11.3% | + |
| 8/9/07 | …for the near term, we are expecting the market to successfully test the recent lows. | -2.9% | -0.1% | 4.6% | -11.3% | – |
| 7/23/07 | …the intermediate-term outlook is bullish and the S&P 500 will make a run into the 1620 to 1650 zone over the next couple of months. | -4.4% | -6.1% | -0.1% | -18.7% | – |
| 7/16/07 | …the S&P 500 has a good shot of reaching 1620 to 1650 over the next couple of months… | -0.5% | -7.9% | 0.3% | -18.7% | – |
| 7/2/07 | …once this consolidation runs its course, we believe the “500” will bolt to all-time highs. | -0.6% | -3.5% | 0.5% | -16.9% | – |
| 6/25/07 | …once yields settle down, we still believe the stock market could have a pretty good summer. | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | -14.3% | – |
| 6/18/07 | …it appears that the very quick pullback is over. | -2.2% | 1.0% | -3.1% | -12.3% | – |
| 6/11/07 | …we think there may be some more downside for stocks, but not too much. | 1.5% | 0.6% | -3.7% | -11.2% | + |
| 6/4/07 | …in the next few weeks, the S&P 500 may run into a ceiling in the 1540 to 1560 area, but looking out a few months, we see the potential for a move north of 1600. | -2.0% | -0.9% | -5.3% | -8.8% | – |
| 5/29/07 | …we see the S&P 500’s intermediate-term trend extending, with the index running up towards the 1575 to 1625 area by the summer. | 0.8% | -0.8% | -2.6% | -7.8% | – |
| 5/14/07 | …it is only a matter of time before the S&P eclipses the March, 2000, high. | 1.5% | 0.8% | -3.3% | -5.3% | + |
| 4/30/07 | …the strength…may carry further than many expect. We strongly believe that when the S&P 500 gets near the all-time high of 1527.46, there will be some profit taking, and possibly a minor pullback. …once the pause at the old highs is over, …the S&P can resume to the upside. | 1.7% | 3.2% | -1.6% | -4.6% | + |
| 4/23/07 | …an intermediate-term or long-term top is not in sight. Market tops are defined by euphoria, and we just do not see that type of emotion at this point. …In the very near-term, perhaps over the next week, we do see the potential for a shallow pullback. | 0.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | -6.2% | + |
| 4/16/07 | …the market remains in good shape and…new highs are just ahead. | 0.8% | 2.2% | 5.7% | -7.0% | + |
| 4/9/07 | …the S&P 500 will have little problem overtaking the recent high from February, and could take a run at its all-time high over the next couple of months. | 1.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | -5.8% | + |
| 4/2/07 | With…sentiment readings…showing such high levels of fear and low levels of bullishness, we think a rally may not be far behind. | 1.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | -3.8% | + |
| 3/26/07 | …there is the potential for some consolidative action over the next week or two, but would use this weakness to increase equity exposure as we think the intermediate term is shaping up for another run higher. | -0.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | -8.5% | + |
| 3/5/07 | …a minor low is in… Once the short rebound of perhaps a week or two plays itself out, we think the market will head to new lows….the correction could be rather swift. | 2.4% | 4.6% | 11.8% | -5.1% | – |
| 2/26/07 | Sell-Off or Surge? A look at trading during similar market action in past years suggests indexes could be in for a major move… | -5.2% | -1.4% | 4.0% | -5.6% | + |
| 2/20/07 | …prices will continue higher despite the plethora of warnings from many of our technical indicators. | -4.2% | -1.7% | 4.3% | -7.3% | – |
| 2/5/07 | …it is…not probable…that the current [winning] streak extends to nine months. | -0.9% | -3.8% | 4.1% | -7.6% | + |
| 1/29/07 | While we believe a price breakdown is coming, and our constant warnings have tended to be early at the tops, we would prefer to alert investors to the possibilities… Proclaiming that a correction is here by waiting for a price breakdown is gutless… | 1.9% | -1.0% | 5.2% | -3.0% | + |
| 1/22/07 | The warning signs continue to mount that a pullback or correction is coming and we would use any near-term strength to pare back equity holdings…our expectations are that the Nasdaq will decline 7% to 10%. | -0.2% | 2.4% | 4.3% | -5.0% | + |
| 12/26/06 | Market internals are deteriorating, momentum is waning, and optimism is healthy — a prescription for a pullback or correction. | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 3.6% | + |
| 12/18/06 | …both [Treasury] yields and crude oil are in the process of bottoming on a intermediate-term basis and that the markets that provided stocks a tailwind will soon provide stocks with a headwind. | -0.4% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 4.4% | + |
| 12/11/06 | The major indexes are starting to provide more and more signs that an intermediate-term top is approaching… | 0.7% | 1.3% | -1.8% | 3.9% | + |
| 12/4/06 | ,,,stocks will peak sometime in December or early January from an intermediate-term perspective, we believe the market will correct by moving sideways rather than substantially lower. …we then see the major indexes heading higher, leading to potential gains of 15% to 25% in 2007. | 0.3% | 0.0% | -1.2% | 6.8% | – |
| 11/20/06 | …the market may have further to run. | -1.0% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 0.4% | + |
| 10/30/06 | …the rally probably has further to go. …the stock market is acting like it has just entered a new bull market… …a pause/pullback in the uptrend would not be surprising… | 0.1% | 1.6% | 4.4% | 9.6% | + |
| 10/23/06 | …the index has yet to peak from an intermediate-term perspective. | 0.1% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 11.5% | + |
| 10/16/06 | …a small pullback in the near term could take place. | 0.6% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 9.6% | – |
| 9/25/06 | This all signifies…the chance for a short-term pullback, in our opinion. …at least one more intermediate-term correction may be ahead of us. | 0.4% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 15.1% | – |
| 9/11/06 | …it would be prudent to keep some powder dry. …we see a decent probability that the major blue chip indexes will at least retest their summer lows, and believe that some of the other indexes could post new, corrective lows. We think that the underpinnings of the cyclical bull market are starting to unwind… | 1.7% | 4.1% | 8.3% | 14.2% | – |
| 9/5/06 | …the stock market has a little further to run… | 0.0% | 2.8% | 6.4% | 10.5% | + |
| 8/28/06 | …remain cautious from an intermediate-term standpoint as we are moving into a very weak period of the year for stocks and we are still counting on a major 4-year cycle low sometime later this year. | 0.9% | 2.7% | 7.6% | 13.2% | – |
| 8/21/06 | …we do not see a blow-off to the upside. We think that the S&P 500 could run up to its cyclical bull market high of 1326 before another leg lower takes shape. | 0.3% | 2.1% | 7.9% | 14.0% | – |
| 8/7/06 | …the market has entered a wide trading range at best, and the S&P 500 will not break out to new bull market highs. …there is a good chance for a bear market sometime later this year or early next year… | -0.6% | 1.9% | 7.2% | 13.9% | – |
| 7/31/06 | The S&P 500 is tracing out a possible “double bottom” that could lead to additional upside. | -0.1% | 2.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | + |
| 7/10/06 | The S&P 500 looks to be tracing out a potentially bullish reversal pattern. | -2.6% | 0.3% | 6.8% | 22.5% | + |
| 7/3/06 | …the correction that started on May 10 has ended…the long awaited summer rally is here. …further market weakness will be seen later this year, after the current rally runs out of gas. | -0.6% | -0.1% | 4.3% | 19.7% | – |
| 6/26/06 | …stay cautious…a successful test of this low will be necessary…any rally in the short term is likely to fail… | 2.4% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 20.2% | + |
| 6/19/06 | …expect some short-term relief…lighten up on any rally. | 0.8% | 1.6% | 6.4% | 21.2% | – |
| 6/12/06 | …near-term, the worst is probably over. …further testing of the lows will be required down the road | 0.3% | 1.8% | 5.1% | 24.0% | + |
| 6/5/06 | …the majority of the initial rally off the first low is near completion…the probability is high that the initial lows will be tested in the 1245 to 1260 zone over the next couple of weeks…another successful test would set the market up for a decent move into the summer. If we do get a rally in the summer, it could very well mark the top for the bull market… | -2.3% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 19.2% | + |
| 5/30/06 | …the dynamics of equity investing have taken a turn for the worse. We do not see a major problem in the short to intermediate term, but we do see trouble later this year. We think volatility is back and here to stay, and in our view, this is a big negative. …the probability of a double bottom is fairly high. This would mean a decent bounce followed by a test of the most recent lows. We are targeting the 1290 as a potential interim top. | 0.3% | -1.1% | 2.8% | 22.2% | + |
| 5/22/06 | …this is a warning of something much worse later this year. …we are targeting the 1246 area as a possible bottom…any intermediate-term bottom will take a week or two to form… | -0.2% | -0.8% | 3.2% | 20.1% | + |
| 5/15/06 | …will we finally see a decent-sized correction, which we believe is long overdue. | -2.5% | -5.0% | -2.1% | 17.6% | + |
| 5/8/06 | …the S&P 500 may have room for additional gains… | -2.3% | -5.2% | -3.4% | 13.5% | – |
| 5/1/06 | The phrase, “Sell in May and then walk away” has been quite prophetic and we think should not be ignored. | 1.5% | -2.7% | -2.0% | 15.4% | + |
| 4/24/06 | Key signals indicate the advance could continue… | -0.2% | -3.9% | -5.2% | 14.2% | – |
| 4/17/06 | …we must express at least some caution for the next couple of weeks. …it would not be surprising to see a return trip to the bottom of the channel sometime in the not too distant future. | 1.8% | 0.5% | -3.8% | 15.5% | – |
| 4/10/06 | So in our view, the rally could extend itself. …The…pattern…gives us a potential target of 1341. | 0.9% | 2.0% | -2.3% | 13.3% | + |
| 4/3/06 | …we would like to see this strength extended into the second quarter before jumping on board. | -0.1% | 0.8% | -2.1% | 11.3% | + |
| 3/27/06 | …the market has a good chance of moving higher. | -0.3% | 0.3% | -4.4% | 9.2% | – |
| 3/13/06 | …this is a good example of a tiring bull market. | 1.6% | 0.2% | -2.5% | 8.0% | – |
| 2/27/06 | …there has been a loss of momentum on both a short-term and intermediate-term basis. While that does not always mean the market will ultimately pullback or correct, it does bear watching. | -1.2% | -0.1% | -1.6% | 7.2% | + |
| 2/21/06 | While this two to three weeks of outperformance by the DJIA is certainly not long enough to be defined as a trend, it may have negative implications. | -0.2% | 1.7% | -1.2% | 13.0% | + |
| 2/13/06 | Major indexes have broken key support levels, and S&P believes there will be additional damage…caution toward the market is the best action. | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 15.3% | – |
| 1/30/06 | …the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are headed back up to test the recent recovery highs. | -1.6% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 12.7% | – |
| 1/23/06 | …the breakout that occurred on Jan. 6 has failed. …the S&P 500 will test the bottom of the recent consolidation that transpired in late November and December, down in the 1246 to 1250 zone. …another pullback or correction may be upon us. | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 12.5% | – |
| 1/17/06 | Sentiment polls remain heavily tilted towards the bullish camp, and from a contrarian view, we believe this could cause some problems as we move further into 2006. | -1.3% | -0.2% | 0.2% | 10.9% | + |
| 1/9/06 | While…the stock market could extend its recent gains, there are many factors that suggest that an extended move to the upside is not in the cards. | -0.6% | -1.9% | 0.4% | 10.9% | + |
| 1/3/06 | …this could be the start of a correction that we have been expecting for the first quarter of 2006…weakening technicals over the last couple of years and the major cycle lows due in 2006 will be the overriding factors that will lead to a major correction or bear market in the coming year. | 1.6% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 11.4% | – |
| 12/27/05 | …the stock market is setting up for a decent correction sometime in the first quarter of the New Year. …we are in the later stages of a bull market. | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 12.9% | – |
| 12/19/05 | …in the near term, a further push higher may be tough in our view. | -0.3% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 12.6% | + |
| 12/12/05 | …the testing process has been successful for the major indexes, and it could be setting the market up for another run higher as we move towards the end of 2005. | 0.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 13.1% | – |
| 12/5/05 | …there could be a pullback at anytime. | -0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 11.5% | – |
| 11/21/05 | …indexes are poised to take another run at new cyclical bull market highs… | 0.2% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 11.6% | + |
| 11/14/05 | The easy gains have been made and the going will get a lot tougher from here… | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 13.5% | – |
| 11/7/05 | While we believe the short-term market outlook is now constructive, we still have our concerns over the intermediate to long term. | 0.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 12.7% | + |
| 10/30/05 | …the indexes are back up near a fair amount of overhead supply that we believe will be tough to break. …remain cautious on the equity market. | 1.3% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 13.3% | – |
| 10/24/05 | …it looks like bear market action to us. We continue to recommend a very cautious approach to equities. | 0.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 15.8% | – |
| 10/17/05 | Key indicators are very close to issuing major long-term sell signals…remain safely on the sidelines. | 0.8% | 3.3% | 7.8% | 14.9% | – |
| 10/10/05 | While we see further losses for stocks over the next month or two, we believe it is possible to get a counter-trend rally over the near term. | 0.2% | 2.6% | 8.7% | 14.8% | – |
| 10/3/05 | The market can now head into the last quarter…with a little wind at its back. | -3.2% | -2.0% | 1.8% | 10.3% | – |
| 9/26/05 | …the market has additional downside in this seasonally weak period. | 0.9% | -1.6% | 4.3% | 10.1% | + |
| 9/19/05 | Price and volume measures are fading… | -1.3% | -4.3% | 3.2% | 7.1% | + |
| 9/12/05 | …stocks can continue to move higher over the near-term… | -0.8% | -4.5% | 1.2% | 6.1% | – |
| 9/6/05 | …more testing of the recent lows is in store. | -0.2% | -3.0% | 2.6% | 5.3% | + |
| 8/29/05 | …remain in a defensive mode with respect to equities. | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.6% | 7.6% | – |
| 8/22/05 | …we see additional losses for stocks. We therefore maintain our cautious stance towards equities. | -0.8% | -0.9% | 1.7% | 6.1% | + |
| 8/15/05 | The market has entered the weakest seasonal time of the year, and we think some caution is warranted over the next month or two. | -1.0% | -0.5% | -0.2% | 5.2% | + |
| 8/1/05 | …momentum measures are suggesting that a near-term pullback is possible… | -1.0% | -2.2% | -4.6% | 3.6% | + |
| 7/25/05 | …after a brief pullback, the major stock indexes will continue higher over the next month or two… | 0.5% | -0.9% | -4.2% | 2.8% | – |
| 7/11/05 | The bulls look to have the upper hand in the near term…could set the indexes up for a rally to the top of their recent trading ranges. | 0.1% | 1.0% | -2.3% | 1.9% | + |
| 7/5/05 | The pullback…has further to go, so we would remain cautious over the near term. | 1.4% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 5.0% | – |
| 6/27/05 | While we have been calling for a short-term pullback, which finally may be here in our view, we do not see a great deal of downside. | 1.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 6.9% | – |
| 6/20/05 | …we still do not see a major upside move developing over the intermediate term. | -2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | + |
| 6/13/05 | …the stock market is in the process of tracing out a short-term top and would remain cautious for the next couple of weeks. | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | – |
| 6/6/05 | …the indexes will have to pull back before they can bust through these key levels and take a run at the cyclical, bull market peaks…the rally will not turn into a sustainable trend to the upside. | 0.3% | -0.2% | 2.0% | 5.0% | – |
| 5/31/05 | …the current rally is overbought and that we may see a pullback in the near term…we do not see a strong, sustainable advance developing as we move into the summer months. | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 8.1% | – |
| 5/23/05 | While…the near-term outlook for the market remains positive, we still believe that we are in the late stages of a cyclical bull market. | -0.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 6.6% | – |
| 5/16/05 | …there is some possible upside for the market in the near term. However, we remain rather cautious about the longer-term outlook for the market…concerns about the market from a longer-term perspective continue to mount. | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 8.2% | + |
| 5/9/05 | …the short-term outlook has improved…the market in general faces some tough hurdles over the intermediate to long term…the probability of a sustainable advance from here is very low…the cyclical bull has ended or will end sometime in the next couple of months. | -1.1% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 10.8% | – |
| 5/2/05 | …remain cautious from a long-term perspective…remain on the sidelines until we see something that might be more than short covering. | 1.4% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 12.9% | – |
| 4/25/05 | While further gains might be seen in the near term, we remain worried about the longer-term prospects for stocks… a retest of the recent lows…will occur over the next couple of weeks. | 0.0% | 2.8% | 6.2% | 12.7% | – |
| 4/18/05 | …take a cautious stance towards stocks. | 1.4% | 2.4% | 7.2% | 14.4% | – |
| 4/11/05 | While we believe the oversold bounce could have further to run, we do not see the necessary ingredients for a sustainable stock market advance at this point…sometime this year, the market may transition back to a bear market. | -3.0% | -1.3% | 2.6% | 9.1% | + |
| 4/4/05 | …we continue to take a cautious stance towards equities…our expectations for more of an oversold bounce may have been delayed. | 0.4% | -1.3% | 1.3% | 11.5% | + |
| 3/28/05 | The Nasdaq composite index broke down, undercutting its January lows, and in the near-term, continues to lead the overall market lower…weekly momentum indicators are in very negative formations. | 0.2% | -1.9% | 2.3% | 11.0% | + |
| 3/21/05 | Until evidence of a strong bottom is in, we would continue to remain cautious. | -1.6% | -3.9% | 2.8% | 10.0% | + |
| 3/14/05 | The intermediate-term trend remains higher despite all the negative action in many other markets. We believe the index could move back and test the lower part of its recent range. If that area gives way, then we could start to question whether the stock market is reversing back to a bear market. | -1.9% | -2.7% | -0.7% | 8.2% | + |
| 3/7/05 | …the S&P 500 index has reached a new recovery high — but the advance hasn’t been supported by strong trading volume… | -1.5% | -3.4% | -2.4% | 3.8% | + |
| 2/28/05 | …the safest place to be is on the sidelines until the all-clear signal is given. | 1.8% | -1.8% | -0.5% | 7.1% | + |
| 2/22/05 | …caution is warranted due to the lagging action of the Nasdaq index and to…the reluctance of institutions… | 2.2% | -1.0% | 0.4% | 8.9% | – |
| 2/14/05 | But better trading volume is needed before another uptrend can happen. | -1.8% | -1.5% | -4.3% | 6.9% | + |
| 2/7/05 | Although we are still cautious for the near-term…, we still believe the major indexes will post new recovery highs sometime in the first half of 2005. | 0.4% | 0.4% | -2.5% | 5.2% | + |
| 1/31/05 | …something is not right…we still believe the market will stabilize over the next month or so. | 1.7% | 2.4% | -2.1% | 7.6% | + |
| 1/24/05 | While we continue to believe new recovery highs will be posted in the first half of 2005, we are maintaining our cautious stance towards stocks for the near-term. | 1.5% | 2.3% | -1.0% | 9.5% | – |
| 1/18/05 | …we believe further downside is a strong possibility. | -2.3% | 1.2% | -4.2% | 5.5% | + |
| 1/10/05 | …the intermediate-term trend remains bullish and still expect higher prices during the first half of 2005. | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.8% | 8.0% | + |
| 12/27/04 | We remain bullish on the stock market as we move into 2005 and we see the majority of gains occurring in the first half of the year. …2005 could be a transitional year for stocks, one in which the market moves from cyclical bull market to cyclical bear market, all within the confines of a secular bear market. There are a couple of very important cycle lows that are due to arrive in 2006, in our view, so the market could start heading lower during the third or fouth quarter of 2005. | -0.2% | -2.6% | -2.5% | 4.4% | – |
| 12/20/04 | While we have been warning about the possibility of some short-term market weakness, we still believe that stocks will move higher over the intermediate term. | 1.6% | -1.6% | -0.9% | 5.7% | – |
| 12/13/04 | …the stock market might be telling us that we are underestimating the current strength and that the upside may be more than most are expecting. | -0.3% | -0.9% | 0.7% | 6.2% | – |
| 12/6/04 | …price momentum and volume remain positive, and we believe this will allow for further gains. However, sentiment and some internal market measures are extremely overbought so there could be a pause or pullback sometime during the month. | 0.7% | -0.5% | 2.9% | 5.6% | + |
| 11/22/04 | …it is only a matter of time before the [NASDAQ] can surpass January’s peak, on its way to a potential run up to the mid-2,500 zone. | -0.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 7.5% | – |
| 11/15/04 | Major indexes have the potential to break out to new recovery highs before the year is out. | -0.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | + |
| 11/8/04 | …we believe further gains lie ahead. | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | + |
| 10/25/04 | It is still very early in this shift to growth, but if it continues, it would be a bullish sign for the market, in our opinion. | 3.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | + |
| 10/18/04 | We believe the market is close to a final low, and that gains will be posted during the typical year-end period. | -1.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | + |
| 10/11/04 | …we remain somewhat cautious as plenty of stocks still have more time to base… | -0.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | + |
| 10/4/04 | The major indexes have failed to break through key resistance levels — an overriding negative for the market. | -0.9% | -0.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | + |
| 9/27/04 | The recent declines may mark the beginning of some corrective action for the market. | 2.9% | 0.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | – |
| 9/20/04 | While we think the major indexes still have some room to move higher in the short-term, we still expect some type of pullback or corrective action over the next 4 to 6 weeks. | -1.7% | -1.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | + |
| 9/13/04 | The Nasdaq is attempting to move back into the trading range…but faces some major hurdles just overhead. | -0.3% | -0.4% | 5.6% | 9.0% | + |
| 9/7/04 | The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain in intermediate-term downtrends and have yet to find a bottom. | 0.6% | 1.9% | 6.2% | 9.8% | – |
| 8/23/04 | …the overriding trend of the major indexes remains negative… If the market does trace out an initial low in August or early September, we would expect a test of those lows in October. | 0.3% | 1.6% | 8.0% | 10.4% | – |
| 8/9/04 | If we get a sharp break during August and put in a decent bottom, we would expect a test of that low sometime in the September-October timeframe… The other possibility…is that the market continues to erode slowly in true bear market fashion. | 1.3% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 15.4% | – |
| 8/2/04 | …we remain concerned from an intermediate-term standpoint and are not convinced that a strong floor has been traced out. | -3.7% | -0.2% | 1.9% | 12.5% | + |
| 7/19/04 | With no indication that a market bottom is here, we believe it is best to wait it out on the sidelines. | -1.5% | -1.7% | 0.2% | 12.2% | + |
| 7/12/04 | …some caution is warranted. A more bearish stance should be taken if the major indexes break below their recent price lows. | -1.2% | -3.2% | 1.5% | 9.8% | + |
| 6/28/04 | …setting up the possibility of a summer breakout to a new recovery high. | -1.5% | -3.3% | -2.1% | 5.9% | – |
| 6/21/04 | There is not enough trading by institutions to push the indexes either way. | 0.3% | -3.2% | -0.2% | 7.4% | – |
| 6/14/04 | …confidence level in the latest advance would increase quite a bit if overall volume and institutional participation started to show a lot more conviction. | 0.4% | -1.2% | -0.1% | 7.2% | + |
| 5/24/04 | …wait for price and volume action to confirm that a new upleg has commenced. …it is hard to throw in the towel on this cyclical bull market… | 2.4% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 9.3% | – |
| 5/17/04 | …a potential probe higher is possible in the near term. | 1.0% | 4.4% | -0.4% | 9.9% | + |
| 5/10/04 | We will remain in the cautious camp for now, as new pullback/correction lows are certainly possible. | -0.3% | 4.1% | -2.0% | 6.6% | + |
| 5/3/04 | …some caution is warranted. | -2.7% | 0.7% | -1.0% | 4.9% | + |
| 4/26/04 | A late-week rally by the market last week pulled stocks out of their recent doldrums and set the stage for potential gains ahead. | -1.6% | -2.0% | -4.5% | 0.7% | – |
| 4/12/04 | …once the minor pullback runs its course, the major indexes should be in good shape to run back up and challenge their respective recovery highs during the next month or so. This would put the indexes in good shape for a move to new recovery highs over the summer months. | -0.8% | -4.3% | -2.7% | 1.5% | – |
| 4/5/04 | We believe the indexes will run up to their recent highs over the next month, but still think a pause or pullback will occur in the near-term. | -1.8% | -2.5% | -3.0% | 2.7% | – |
| 3/29/04 | …we will need to see more evidence over the next week or so to give the all-clear sign. | 2.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 4.5% | – |
| 3/21/04 | While the green light has not been given to investors, and the consolidation is likely to continue, signs are building that a market low is approaching. | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 6.9% | – |
| 3/14/04 | …it is too early to tell whether the worst of this pullback is over. | -0.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 7.8% | + |
| 3/8/04 | …the stock market is going through a rotational consolidation within the confines of a bull market and this should allow all the major indexes to move to recovery highs before the year is out. | -3.7% | 0.1% | -2.2% | 5.4% | + |
| 2/29/04 | The major stock indexes should continue to work off their intermediate-term overbought condition. | -0.8% | -2.5% | -3.0% | 4.7% | + |
| 2/22/04 | The slumping Nasdaq could drag the rest of the market lower over the near term. | 1.3% | -4.1% | -4.5% | 5.2% | + |
| 2/16/04 | …the market has entered a consolidative period that could last two to five months. | -1.5% | -2.9% | -5.3% | 3.8% | + |
| 2/9/04 | …the market has entered a period of consolidation likely to last two to five months. | 1.5% | -1.4% | -3.6% | 5.0% | + |
| 2/2/04 | …a long overdue consolidation or pullback has commenced…and will last for two to five months. | 0.4% | 1.4% | -2.5% | 4.8% | + |
| 1/25/04 | We believe that the current intermediate-term advance is nearing an end, with a two to five month consolidation taking hold. | -1.7% | -1.0% | -1.3% | 1.7% | + |
| 1/20/04 | While the major indexes march higher, the list of potential stumbling blocks continues to grow. | 0.5% | 0.7% | -0.3% | 2.6% | + |
| 1/12/04 | A period of backing and filling would be very healthy for the market right now. | 1.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 4.5% | – |
| 12/22/03 | …the major indexes will continue to work higher in 2004 — but in a more labored fashion. | 1.5% | 4.4% | 0.1% | 10.2% | + |
| 12/15/03 | …the index should…set new recovery highs — before the next pullback. | 2.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 11.8% | + |
| 12/8/03 | While it is possible to get one more shot to the upside, the weight of the evidence suggests a cautious stance is in order. | -0.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 11.1% | – |
| 11/26/03 | …additional new highs will be seen by the major indexes. | 1.1% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 12.6% | + |
| 11/17/03 | We see the current staggered advance remaining in force until…the normal mid-December pullback takes place. | 0.8% | 3.1% | 10.4% | 12.1% | – |
| 11/4/03 | …further gains are ahead… | -0.6% | 1.6% | 7.0% | 10.6% | + |
| 10/27/03 | …some caution is warranted over the near term. Because this resistance is so thick, it will take plenty of time to work through, keeping a lid on the market for the near-to intermediate-term. | 2.7% | 2.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% | – |
| 10/20/03 | The intermediate-term picture continues to look positive and there is not enough evidence to suggest that the current advance has run out of gas. | -1.3% | -1.0% | 9.0% | 4.9% | + |
| 10/6/03 | Until the bears can wrest control, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls. | 1.1% | 1.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | + |
| 9/29/03 | …it is a bit too early to tell whether this is the time that momentum can finally pick up to the downside. | 2.8% | 4.0% | 8.9% | 12.4% | + |
| 9/22/03 | …there is room for stocks to advance within the confines of a corrective phase for Treasuries. | -1.6% | 2.3% | 6.5% | 8.5% | + |
| 9/15/03 | …the market will regroup and head higher. | 0.8% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 11.2% | + |
| 9/8/03 | So much for September being a weak month for the equity market. The S&P 500…looks headed for further gains. | -1.6% | 0.7% | 3.7% | 8.9% | + |
| 9/2/03 | The set-up is certainly there for a correction during the next two months. | 0.1% | -0.4% | 3.5% | 9.0% | + |
| 8/25/03 | Our market call for a correction two weeks ago was obviously premature, and while the recent rally could extend itself, the low volume breakouts, deteriorating internals, and negative seasonal price patterns leave us cautious. | 2.8% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 11.5% | – |
| 8/11/03 | …there is a good chance for a 10% correction in the S&P 500…by mid-October and a decline of 15% or more in the Nasdaq. | 2.0% | 3.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | – |
| 8/4/03 | …the weight of the evidence is starting to point to a breakdown… It is a time to be cautious towards stocks with an eye on the exits. | -0.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | – |
| 7/28/03 | We see more range trading for the market but a break above or below the levels outlined above will most likely define the next price trend. | -1.4% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 10.6% | + |
| 7/21/03 | Indicators suggest that a trading range environment is likely | 1.8% | 2.4% | 7.3% | 11.0% | – |
| 7/13/03 | the “500” will break out to a new recovery high in the near term. However…our intermediate-term forecast continues to be a trading range environment until late in the year. | -2.5% | -1.3% | 3.5% | 9.7% | – |
| 7/7/03 | Sentiment remains worrisome, and we believe this keeps a lid on the market over the intermediate-term. | -0.1% | -3.9% | 1.6% | 10.8% | + |
| 6/30/03 | at best we think the market could go sideways and at worst the market could be on borrowed time. | 3.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 15.5% | – |
| 6/23/03 | While it is certainly possible that the rally extends from here, the easy gains are behind us and an eye toward the exit is warranted. | -0.7% | 0.7% | 5.6% | 15.6% | – |
| 6/16/03 | The current rally looks like it has run out of gas temporarily but the trend remains higher… | -2.9% | -1.6% | 0.8% | 12.3% | + |
| 6/8/03 | The implications of this breakout are bullish and suggest at the very least that stocks have entered a cyclical bull market. | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 16.4% | + |
| 6/2/03 | The market…looks poised to break out. However, overbought sentiment readings could put a crimp in an extended move higher over the near term. | 0.9% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 15.5% | + |
| 5/27/03 | The market cracked a little last week but did not break, and stocks could be in for another run up near the top of the 10-month trading range. However, sentiment numbers are obscenely bullish and that should keep a lid on things for the intermediate term. | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 17.8% | – |
| 5/19/03 | While we believe a pullback/correction is not far off, a potential breakout…is taking on a greater probability and will have positive implications for the market on a longer-term basis. | 3.3% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 18.3% | – |
| 5/12/03 | The short-term action of the stock market remains bullish and we see further — albeit limited — gains from current levels. However, sentiment has moved to an extreme level, suggesting a market pause. | -2.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 16.0% | – |
| 5/5/03 | The market’s price action is undeniably bullish and suggests further price gains over the near-term. However, …with the lack of long-term evidence…that a new secular bull market has started, we will wait for further signs before taking a more aggressive stance. | 2.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 20.2% | – |
| 4/21/03 | We believe the market is approaching a short- and possibly intermediate-term top and feel much more comfortable buying weakness and selling strength. This type of strategy may be with us for quite some time. | 2.6% | 3.1% | 11.4% | 27.8% | – |
| 4/14/03 | Price patterns and sentiment indicators point to further weakness for stocks… Why investors are getting overly bullish in a secular bear market, and one that has gone sideways since July, 2002, is beyond our comprehension. | 3.0% | 6.1% | 13.4% | 28.2% | – |
| 3/31/03 | Internal action remains fairly healthy and suggests that there is more upside. | 3.7% | 8.1% | 15.1% | 33.5% | + |
| 3/24/03 | We believe the market is in the midst of another bear market rally, similar to those witnessed off the July and October bottoms. | -1.9% | 6.3% | 15.2% | 28.3% | – |
| 3/17/03 | While it certainly doesn’t feel like the market could take off with all the uncertainty, stocks have had almost every excuse to break lower in a big way and have held. …this is usually a great indication that a decent rally is about to occur. | 0.2% | 3.2% | 14.6% | 30.1% | + |
| 3/10/03 | …a decent rally could occur within the next couple weeks, however, the long-term picture remains very cloudy at best. | 6.8% | 8.8% | 22.3% | 37.1% | – |
