The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September 2026. The actual total (core) inflation rate is higher than (a little higher than) forecasted.
Recent Investing Research
Investing Expertise
Using AI to Generate World Class Financial Research?
Can artificial intelligence (AI) models help compose world class financial research?In his September 2026 paper entitled “AI and Scholarship in Financial Economics”, Campbell Harvey details the 45-minute process of drafting a submission to the April 2026 Human x AI Finance conference. His paper was one of four papers selected from 159 submissions by purely AI… Keep Reading
Investing Expertise, Strategic Allocation
How Widespread Use of AIs Will Affect Markets
Can the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models (LLM) plausibly assess how widespread investor use of AIs to screen investment strategies will affect markets? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt: Please concisely assess the implications for individual… Keep Reading
Investing Expertise, Strategic Allocation
Using AI Panel to Screen Investment Strategies
Does the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models offer a quick way to identify attractive investment strategies? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt: Please concisely describe and quantify the one most promising tactical asset class allocation/tilt strategy… Keep Reading
Miscellaneous
Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 10/5/26 – 10/9/26
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 10/5/26 through 10/9/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.
Individual Investing, Investing Expertise
AI Panel Assessment of SACEMS
Does the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models offer a quick way to assess the credibility of an investment strategy/model? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt: Please assess the credibility of the Simple Asset Class Momentum Strategy,… Keep Reading
Investing Expertise
Using AI Panel to Confirm Research Conclusions
Does the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models offer a quick way to validate research conclusions? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt: Please identify any groups of related exchange-traded funds (ETF) that: (1) focus on capturing potentially… Keep Reading
Bonds, Commodity Futures, Economic Indicators, Equity Premium, Gold, Real Estate
Growth-inflation Regimes and Asset Class Returns
Can artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models rapidly analyze interactions among economic growth, inflation and asset class returns? To investigate, we pose to Claude the following prompt: Please construct charts with U.S. total inflation on the vertical axis and U.S. real GDP growth on the horizontal axis, with annual returns for SPY,… Keep Reading
Strategic Allocation, Volatility Effects
Classic Stocks-Bonds Portfolios with Leveraged ETFs
Can investors use leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETF) to construct attractive versions of simple 60%/40% (60/40) and 40%/60% (40/60) stocks-bonds portfolios? In their March 2020 presentation package entitled “Robust Leveraged ETF Portfolios Extending Classic 40/60 Portfolios and Portfolio Insurance”, flagged by a subscriber, Mikhail Smirnov and Alexander Smirnov consider several variations of classic stocks/bonds portfolios implemented… Keep Reading
Bonds, Equity Premium, Strategic Allocation
Bonds Not Worth It?
Is the conventional investment advice to allocate 60%-80% to stocks and 20%-40% to bonds in a personal long-term portfolio sensible? In his September 2026 paper entitled “Don’t Fix Your Fixed Income Allocation”, Douglas Lucas examines the historical U.S. experience of such advice based on Shiller’s U.S. stock market and 10-year U.S. Treasury note (T-note) returns… Keep Reading
Miscellaneous
Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 9/28/26 – 10/2/26
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 9/28/26 through 10/2/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.
Economic Indicators
AI Panel Forecasts of Target Federal Funds Rate Changes
Does the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models have sensible forecasts for the path of Federal Reserve target federal funds rate? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt eliciting such forecasts: Please use all information available to date… Keep Reading
Fundamental Valuation
Strictly Fundamental Valuation by AIs
Can artificial intelligence usefully estimate intrinsic firm value without cues from market prices? In his September 2026 paper entitled “Valu(AI)tion: Machine Value and Market Prices”, Marc Schmitt builds a machine analyst that each year forecasts profits strictly from published firm accounting data (no stock prices/returns or analyst estimates) and calculates firm value by inserting forecasted… Keep Reading