Recent Investing Research

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for March 2026. SACEMS rankings for positions 2 and 3 are somewhat close, so they could flip by the close. SACEVS allocations are unlikely to change by the close.

How have different asset classes recently interacted with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)? To investigate, we look at lead-lag relationships between VIX and returns for each of the following 10 exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset class proxies: Equities: SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index… Keep Reading

What does very long term experience say about the best way to protect a conventional global 60% equities-40% bonds (60/40) portfolio against drawdowns? In their November 2025 paper entitled “The Best Defensive Strategies: Two Centuries of Evidence”, Guido Baltussen, Martin Martens and Lodewijk van der Linden use 220 years of data to compare downside protection… Keep Reading

“Simplified Offensive, Defensive and Risk Mode Identification Momentum Strategy” and “Size Effect-based Hybrid Asset Allocation Strategy” describe strategies that each month hold offensive (defensive) assets when average return on iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) over the past 1, 3, 6 and 12 months is positive (negative). Is past return of TIP, which impounds investor expectations… Keep Reading

Do firms that spend big on research and development (R&D) relative to revenue outperform in the future? In his January 2026 paper entitled “R&D Alpha: Investment Intensity and Long-Term Stock Returns”, flagged by a subscriber, Abhishek Sehgal investigates the relationship between firm R&D intensity and future returns for large-capitalization U.S. stocks (S&P 500, as historically… Keep Reading

Can exploiting the relatively high betas of small and midsize stocks according to regimes defined by past iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) returns beat the market? In his January 2026 paper entitled “A Regime-Aware Market Capitalization Rotation Strategy Using Hybrid Asset Allocation Momentum”, Peter Richman evaluates a momentum strategy inspired by the Hybrid Asset Allocation… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 2/17/26 through 2/20/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Is proximity to doom good or bad for the U.S. stock market? To measure proximity to doom, we use the Doomsday Clock “Minutes-to-Midnight” metric, revised intermittently in late January via the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which “warns the public about how close we are to destroying our world with dangerous technologies of our own… Keep Reading

“Seasonal Strategy for QQQ?” finds an interesting even year-odd year effect in Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) annual returns. The Trading Calendar and “Monthly Returns During Presidential and Congressional Election Years” find notable differences in S&P 500 Index performances for even years and odd years. A plausible culprit is federal elections. Is this effect growing over time?… Keep Reading

Does finance professor David Kass, who presents annual lists of stock picks on Seeking Alpha, make good selections? To investigate, we consider his picks of “10 Stocks for 2020”, “16 Stocks For 2021”, “12 Stocks For 2022”, “10 Stocks For 2023”, “10 Stocks For 2024” and “10 Stocks For 2025”. For each year and each… Keep Reading

A subscriber suggested that the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) may each exhibit return momentum at the strategy level, such that an investor considering both as in Combined Value-Momentum Strategy may want to pick the one with a stronger recent return. To investigate, we… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 2/9/26 through 2/13/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.