Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/24/26 through 8/28/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.
Recent Investing Research
Equity Premium
U.S. Equity Premium?
A subscriber requested measurement of a “premium” associated with U.S. stocks relative to those of other developed markets by looking at the difference in returns between the following two exchange-traded funds (ETF): SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA) Using monthly dividend-adjusted closing prices for these ETFs during August 2001 (limited by… Keep Reading
Currency Trading, Gold, Volatility Effects
The BGSV Portfolio
How might an investor construct a portfolio of very risky assets? To investigate, we revisit ideas first considered six years ago: First, diversify with monthly rebalancing of: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC), an indirect Bitcoin holding. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), an indirect gold holding. ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY), to capture part of… Keep Reading
Sentiment Indicators
Testing a Proxy for the Goldman Sachs Panic Index
Is the proprietary Goldman Sachs Panic Index, conventionally interpreted as good (bad) for future stock market returns when very high (very low), useful for market timing? Because the data series for the index is not publicly available, we ask Claude to estimate the data series from a publicly available chart. Claude generated estimates of end-of-week… Keep Reading
Sentiment Indicators
Testing a Proxy for the Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator
Is the proprietary Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator, conventionally interpreted as good (bad) for future stock market returns when very low (very high), useful for market timing? Because the data series for this indicator is not publicly available, we ask Claude to estimate the data series from a publicly available chart. Claude generated… Keep Reading
Bonds, Currency Trading, Economic Indicators, Equity Premium, Fundamental Valuation, Gold
Required Yield Theory Update
Does economic growth logically and reliably anchor asset class returns? In his July 2026 paper entitled “A General, Scientific Unified Theory of Economic Growth, Asset Valuation and Return: A Common Necessary Constant Evidence for a Natural Law”, Julian Van Erlach presents theoretical and empirical evidence connecting real economic growth (change in real Gross Domestic Product,… Keep Reading
Miscellaneous
Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 8/17/26 – 8/21/26
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/17/26 through 8/21/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.
Bonds, Equity Premium
Do Convertible Bond ETFs Attractively Meld Stocks and Bonds?
Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) that hold convertible corporate bonds offer attractive performance? To investigate, we compare performance statistics for the following four convertible bond ETFs, three available and one dead, to those for a monthly rebalanced 60%-40% combination of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD):… Keep Reading
Mutual/Hedge Funds, Volatility Effects
Ups and Downs of Leveraged ETFs
What are likely outcomes for different kinds of leveraged exchange-traded funds (LETF), which typically use embedded financing and daily rebalancing to target two or three times the daily return of assets they track? In their July 2026 paper entitled “The Costs and Benefits of Leveraged ETFs”, Chris Murray and Marco Sammon examine the costs and… Keep Reading
Investing Expertise
Weighting Investment Bank Asset Allocation Pronouncements
How should investors weight investment banker pronouncements on asset allocation as reported in financial media? Can the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models assist? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt: Please rank JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan… Keep Reading
Equity Premium
Are Cybersecurity ETFs Attractive?
Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) focused on cybersecurity stocks offer attractive performance? To investigate, we compare performance statistics of five cybersecurity ETFs, all currently available, to those of Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), as follows: Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) iShares Cybersecurity and Tech ETF (IHAK) Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) WisdomTree… Keep Reading
Calendar Effects, Political Indicators
Stock Market and the National Election Cycle
Some stock market experts cite the year (1, 2, 3 or 4) of the U.S. presidential term cycle as a useful indicator of U.S. stock market returns. Game theory suggests that presidents deliver bad news immediately after being elected and do everything in their power to create good news just before ensuing biennial elections. Are… Keep Reading
Miscellaneous
Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 8/10/26 – 8/14/26
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 8/10/26 through 8/14/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.