Recent Investing Research

How does the performance of the U.S. stock market compare to that of the aggregated stock markets in the rest of the world over the long run? Is there alternating leadership? To investigate, we use the S&P 500 Index (SP500) as a proxy for the U.S. stock market and the World ex USA Index in… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/18/26 through 5/22/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Is systematically selling covered call options on equity indexes, as implemented by exchange-traded funds (ETF), attractive? To investigate, we consider five equity covered call ETFs: Invesco S&P 500 BuyWrite (PBP) – seeks to track the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index (BXM). Global X S&P 500 Covered Call (XYLD) – seeks to track BXM. Global X NASDAQ 100… Keep Reading

Does the informativeness of markets come from wisdom of the crowd or the wisdom of a few? If a few, who are they? In their April 2026 paper entitled “Beyond the Wisdom of the Crowd: Concentrated Informed Trading in Earnings Prediction Markets” Wan Chu Cheong and Ane Tamayo examine who makes Polymarket earnings prediction markets… Keep Reading

One concern about simple momentum strategies is data snooping bias impounded in selection of the lookback interval(s) used to measure asset momentum. To circumvent this concern, we consider the following argument: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) broadly indicates the level of financial markets distress and thereby the tendency of investors to act complacently (when VIX… Keep Reading

Does the Memorial Day holiday signal any unusual U.S. stock market return effects? By its definition, this holiday brings with it any effects from three-day weekends and sometimes the turn of the month. Prior to 1971, the U.S. celebrated Memorial Day on May 30. Effective in 1971, Memorial Day became the last Monday in May…. Keep Reading

How do exchange-traded-funds (ETF) that employ artificial intelligence (AI) to pick assets perform? To investigate, we consider ten such ETFs, eight of which are currently available: Amplify AI Powered Equity ETF (AIEQ) – picks U.S. stocks based on a quantitative model that runs on the IBM Watson platform. QRAFT AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap ETF (QRFT)… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/11/26 through 5/15/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Does the conventional wisdom to “Sell in May” (and “Buy in November”, hence also the term “Halloween Effect”) work over the long run, perhaps due to biological/psychological effects of seasons (Seasonal Affective Disorder)? To check, we turn to the long run dataset of Robert Shiller. This data set includes monthly levels of the S&P Composite… Keep Reading

Are prediction markets better at forecasting firm earnings than professional analysts? In their April 2026 paper entitled “Beating the Earnings Game: Why Do Prediction Markets Outperform Professional Analysts?”, Daniel Rabetti, Jiaqi Shao and Che Zhang investigate whether and, if so, why a blockchain-based prediction market such as Polymarket outperforms professional analysts in forecasting U.S. stock… Keep Reading

Does the empirical accuracy of prediction markets derive from crowd wisdom or an informed few? In their April 2026 paper entitled “Prediction Market Accuracy: Crowd Wisdom or Informed Minority?”, Roberto Cram, Yunhan Guo, Theis Jensen and Howard Kung investigate why prediction markets exhibit accuracy. Specifically, they compare the distribution of actual trade directions with a… Keep Reading

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April 2026. The actual total (core) inflation rate is higher than (a little higher than) forecasted.