The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for April 2026. SACEMS rankings are unlikely to change by the close. SACEVS allocations are unlikely to change by the close.
Recent Investing Research
Equity Premium, Strategic Allocation
Substitute QQQ for SPY in SACEVS and SACEMS?
Subscribers asked whether substituting Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) for SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) in the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) improves outcomes. To investigate, we substitute monthly QQQ dividend-adjusted returns for SPY dividend-adjusted returns in the two model strategies. We then compare the modified… Keep Reading
Calendar Effects
Stock Returns Around Easter
Does the seasonal shift marked by the Easter holiday, with the U.S. stock market closed on the preceding Good Friday, produce anomalous returns? To investigate, we analyze the historical behavior of the S&P 500 Index before and after the holiday. Using daily closing levels of the S&P 500 index for 1950-2025 (76 events), we find… Keep Reading
Fundamental Valuation, Miscellaneous
Methodology Changes
We are making two changes to CXOadvisory.com methodology: The Social Science Research Network (SSRN) is our principal source of research relevant to individual investors. We monitor relevant parts of SSRN to discover such research. However, with widespread use of Large Language Models (LLM), inputs to SSRN seem to have multiplied and become, on the whole,… Keep Reading
Miscellaneous
Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 3/23/26 – 3/27/26
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/23/26 through 3/27/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.
Commodity Futures, Currency Trading, Gold
Interplay of the Dollar, Gold and Oil
What is the interplay among exchange-traded fund (ETF) proxies for the U.S. dollar, gold and crude oil? Do changes in the value of the dollar lead or lag those in hard assets? To investigate, we relate returns of Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) to those for each of: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)…. Keep Reading
Bonds, Momentum Investing
Treasuries ETFs Momentum Strategy Update/Extension
“Simple Term Structure ETF/Mutual Fund Momentum Strategy” tests a simple relative momentum strategy on the term structure of U.S. Treasuries using exchange-traded fund (ETF) and mutual fund proxies. Here, we update and extend that analysis with the following seven ETFs: State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF… Keep Reading
Investing Expertise
Lie to Me?
Should users of artificial intelligence (AI), as implemented via Large Language Models (LLM) with latitude to operate independently, expect good treatment? In their February 2026 paper entitled “Agents of Chaos”, a large research team reports results from two weeks of intensive, realistic interactions between 20 researchers and largely autonomous LLMs. Autonomy means that the LLM… Keep Reading
Momentum Investing, Technical Trading
Adding a Timing Rule to NASDAQ 100 Momentum Portfolios
A subscriber suggested adding a simple moving average (SMA) timing rule to “Top 5 or Top 10 NASDAQ 100 Momentum Stocks?” in order to suppress relatively deep maximum drawdowns (MaxDD). To investigate, we consider SMAs for Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) ranging from two months to 24 months. We then hold Top 5 or Top 10 (3-month… Keep Reading
Equity Options, Equity Premium
How Are Laddered Buffer ETFs Doing?
A buffer exchange-traded fund (ETF) is designed to limit losses while capping gains over a specific period, usually one year, generally by combining a position in put and call options on a stock index with an ETF that tracks that index. Laddered buffer ETFs smooth this approach by holding a rolling series of buffer ETFs… Keep Reading
Miscellaneous
Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 3/16/26 – 3/20/26
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/16/26 through 3/20/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.
Currency Trading, Equity Premium
Bitcoin Trend Predicts U.S. Stock Market Return?
A subscriber asked about an assertion that bitcoin (BTC) price trend/return predicts return of the S&P 500 Index (SP500). To investigate, we relate BTC returns to SP500 returns at daily, weekly and monthly frequencies. We rationalize the different trading schedules for these two series by excluding BTC trading dates that are not also SP500 trading… Keep Reading
Momentum Investing, Strategic Allocation
More International Equity Market Granularity for SACEMS?
A subscriber asked whether more granularity in international equity choices for the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS) would improve performance. To investigate, we augment/replace international developed and emerging equity market exchange-traded funds (ETF) such that the universe of assets becomes: SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) iShares Europe (IEV) iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ)… Keep Reading