The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for July 2026. SACEMS rankings probably will not change by the close. SACEVS allocations are unlikely to change by the close.
Recent Investing Research
Technical Trading
To Buy, or Not to Buy, the Dip?
Are stock market dips reliable indications of valuation distortions that reliably revert, thereby offering buying opportunities? In his May 2026 paper entitled “Buy the Dip? Not So Fast”, Javier Estrada considers two ways to evaluate an array of buy-the-dip (BTD) strategies, assuming that BTD capital must come from somewhere: Buy-hold-rebalance (BHR) – the BHR benchmark… Keep Reading
Equity Premium, Technical Trading
Picking Industries According to Market State
Do U.S. industry portfolios perform predictably after similar U.S. equity market returns? In his May 2026 paper entitled “Industry Rotation Using Market-State Similarity”, Valeriy Zakamulin studies whether current market returns exploitably predict subsequent industry returns. Specifically, he: Examines general market-to-industry monthly return predictability. Assesses monthly market-to-industry predictability across ranges of market returns by: Standardizing market… Keep Reading
Miscellaneous
Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 6/22/26 – 6/26/26
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/22/26 through 6/26/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.
Fundamental Valuation
Is Morningstar’s Fair Market Value of Value?
A subscriber commented and asked: “I have been wondering whether Morningstar’s estimate of ‘fair value’ for stocks has any relationship to actual subsequent returns. For instance, when the fair value is more than double the market price, is the return over the next year substantially greater than for stocks where the fair value is less… Keep Reading
Investing Expertise, Strategic Allocation
Retirement Portfolio ETF Allocations by AI Panel
Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as retirement portfolio specification advisors? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt regarding exchange-traded fund (ETF) selections and weights: For a hypothetical U.S. investor… Keep Reading
Economic Indicators, Technical Trading
Testing Wilshire 5000/GDP as Stock Market Predictor
Is the Buffett Indicator, the ratio of total U.S. stock market capitalization (proxied by Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index W5000) to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a useful indicator of future U.S. stock market performance? W5000/GDP clearly has no stable average value over its available history (see the first chart below), so the level of the… Keep Reading
Calendar Effects
Stock Market Behavior Around Mid-year and 4th of July
The middle of the year might be a time for funds to dress their windows and investors to review and revise portfolios. The 4th of July celebration might engender optimism among U.S. investors. Are there any reliable patterns in daily U.S. stock market returns around mid-year and the 4th of July? To check, we analyze… Keep Reading
Investing Expertise, Strategic Allocation
Safe Haven ETF Picking by AI Panel
Is the evolving set of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms based on large language models interesting as safe haven selection advisors? Are they monolithic, or diverse? As a simple exploration, we pose to each of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity and Gemini the following prompt regarding 16 potential safe haven exchange-traded funds (ETF) from the list in… Keep Reading
Miscellaneous
Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 6/15/26 – 6/18/26
Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 6/15/26 through 6/18/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.
Individual Investing, Investing Expertise
Implications of LLM Use in Casual Investment Research
Is the shift from keyword-based search engines to artificial intelligence (AI) as implemented with large language models (LLM) affecting typical investor behavior? In the May 2026 revision of their paper entitled “The Double-Edged Mind: How LLMs Expand Stock Market Participation Yet Strengthen Confirmation-Seeking”, Cara Damm, Kevin Bauer, Florian Hett and Loriana Pelizzon address this question… Keep Reading
Individual Investing, Investing Expertise
Effects of AI-generated Financial News Summaries
Does inclusion of artificial intelligence (AI)-generated summaries in financial news articles influence investor response to the articles? In the May 2026 revision of their paper entitled “Generative AI and Investor Processing of Financial Media”, Tony Cho, Allen Huang, Joseph Pacelli and Kristina Rennekamp examine whether and how AI-generated financial news summaries influence investor information processing… Keep Reading
Investing Expertise, Political Indicators
Congressional Trade Tracking ETFs
Do funds based on holdings/trades of members of the U.S. Congress and their families beat the market? To investigate, we look at performances of two recently introduced exchange-traded funds (ETF): Unusual Whales Subversive Democratic Trading ETF (NANC) – invests primarily in stocks held by Democratic members of Congress and/or their families per public disclosure filings…. Keep Reading