Recent Investing Research

Does the U.S. stock market, as proxied by the S&P 500 Index (SP500) exhibit much variability in intra-month behaviors by calendar month? To investigate, we compare average daily cumulative SP500 returns across calendar months. Using daily SP500 returns during January 1990 through June 2025, we find that:

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined Value-Momentum Strategy. We have updated the Trading Calendar to incorporate data for July 2025.

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for August 2025. SACEMS rankings probably will not change by the close. SACEVS allocations are unlikely to change by the close.

What happens if we add bitcoin, as proxied by Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC), to the asset universe for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS), which each month holds the top one (Top 1), the equal-weighted top two (EW Top 2) or the equal-weighted top three (EW Top 3) asset class proxy ETFs… Keep Reading

Is conventional wisdom that aggregate retail investor sentiment is a contrary indicator of future stock market return correct? To investigate, we examine the sentiment expressed by members of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) via a weekly survey of members. This survey asks AAII members each week (Thursday through Wednesday): “Do you feel the… Keep Reading

“Stock Size and Excess Stock Portfolio Growth” finds that an equal-weighted portfolio of the (each day) 1,000 largest U.S. stocks beats its market capitalization-weighted counterpart by about 2% per year. However, the underlying research does not account for portfolio rebalancing costs and may not be representative of other stock universes. Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) that… Keep Reading

In times of economic uncertainty, traditional safe haven assets (bonds and gold) have often failed. Is there a more robust safe haven approach? In his July 2025 paper entitled “Defense First: A Multi-Asset Tactical Model for Adaptive Downside Protection”, Thomas Carlson introduces the Defense First portfolio, which employs four macro-hedging assets: iShares 20+ Year Treasury… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 7/21/25 through 7/25/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Why not select and weight stocks in a growth portfolio using only firm growth fundamentals rather than variables that depend on stock price? In their July 2025 paper entitled “Fundamental Growth”, Robert Arnott, Chris Brightman, Campbell Harvey, Que Nguyen and Omid Shakernia investigate performance of stocks exhibiting growth in fundamentals such as sales, gross profit… Keep Reading

The value of holdings in passive (capitalization-weighted, index tracking) U.S. equity funds now exceeds that in active U.S. equity funds. In their May 2025 paper entitled “Passive Aggressive: The Risks of Passive Investing Dominance”, Chris Brightman and Campbell Harvey explore implications of the dramatic growth in passive investment strategies, including loss of diversification and mispricing…. Keep Reading