Recent Investing Research

Can investors reasonably anticipate the signals (stock rankings) for stock anomalies that are based on firm financial information. In their August 2024 paper entitled “Predicting Anomalies”, Boone Bowles, Adam Reed, Matthew Ringgenberg and Jake Thornock investigate whether: (1) stock returns follow predictable patterns before availability of anomaly trading signals; and, (2) anomaly trading signals are… Keep Reading

Can market efficiency be falling despite ubiquitous data, computing and networking? In his August 2024 paper entitled “The Less-Efficient Market Hypothesis”, Clifford Asness argues that markets have become less efficient in the relative pricing of common stocks over recent decades. To make his argument, he relies on the ratio of expensive stock valuations to cheap… Keep Reading

Would someone who knows tomorrow’s financial headlines today be a good day trader? In their September 2024 paper entitled “When a Crystal Ball Isn’t Enough to Make You Rich”, Victor Haghani and James White report results of “The Crystal Ball Challenge.” They ask 118 young adults trained in finance to trade the S&P 500 Index… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 10/7/24 through 10/11/24. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Is momentum a rational firm earnings growth proxy rather than a manifestation of investor underreaction/overreaction to news? In their August 2024 paper entitled “A Unified Framework for Value and Momentum”, Jacob Boudoukh, Tobias Moskowitz, Matthew Richardson and Lei Xie present an asset pricing model that treats value and momentum as complementary inputs to a present… Keep Reading

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September 2024. The actual total (core) inflation rate is a little lower than (a little higher than) forecasted.

What variables best explain increases and decreases in Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio (CAPE or P/E10)? In their August 2024 paper entitled “Analyzing Changing ‘Investor Exuberance’: The Determinants of S&P Composite Index Total Return CAPE Changes”, C. Krishnan, Jiemin Yang and Xiyao Tan apply the following three techniques to investigate which of 42 potentially explanatory variables… Keep Reading

How consequential are trading frictions for equity options, and how do these frictions vary across brokers? In their September 2024 paper entitled “Some Anonymous Options Trades Are More Equal than Others”, Xing Huang, Philippe Jorion and Christopher Schwarz compare retail option trade executions by placing the same orders across six brokers: E*Trade, Fidelity, Robinhood, Schwab,… Keep Reading

Short-term reversal is a widely accepted stock return anomaly, with the long-only version glibly termed “buy the dip.” Is short-term reversal readily exploitable? As a live test, we look at the performance of Vesper U.S. Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETF (UTRN). This fund seeks to capture bounces of stocks with recent sharp declines by… Keep Reading

Why have stock return anomalies generally degraded over recent decades? In their August 2024 paper entitled “What Drives Anomaly Decay?”, Jonathan Brogaard, Huong Nguyen, Tālis Putniņš and Yuchen Zhang examine why stock return anomalies decay by: Decomposing returns into market-wide, public firm-specific and private firm-specific elements. Separating cash flow and discount rate effects within each… Keep Reading