Investing/Trading Insights

Site Sections

Blog - Investing Notes records financial markets analyses and insights (not transient news) from an investor/trader perspective. Many entries are summaries of academic papers. Normal update schedule is most trading days. The list in the header above offers short-cuts to topical cross-sections of the blog archives.

Stock Market Status provides the current projections of our stock market models. Normal update schedule is after the close each trading day.

Real Earnings Yield Model presents the Real Earnings Yield Model of the stock market. Normal update schedule is as required for revisions.

Reversion-to-Value Model describes the Reversion-to-Value Model of the stock market. Normal update schedule is as required for revisions.

Earnings Forecast provides a projection of aggregate S&P 500 operating earnings over the next few quarters. Normal update schedule is at least every quarter to incorporate new actual earnings data.

Inflation Forecast provides a projection of the 12-month trailing inflation rate by month for the next year. Normal update schedule is monthly to incorporate new data.

Guru Grades offers a summary of the accuracies of various experts in predicting the behavior of the U.S. stock market, along with supporting notes and links to detailed evaluations. Normal update schedule is approximately biweekly.

Investing Demons synthesizes a wide range of research in a big-picture overview of financial markets investing and trading. This section has no regular update schedule.

Trading Calendar provides typical full-year and monthly performance of the stock market (S&P 500 index) based on its average behavior since 1950 and 1990. Normal update schedule is monthly to incorporate new data.

Cartoons highlights those blog entries that have original cartoons that reinforce investment concepts and issues. This section has no regular update schedule.

Strategy Test describes and tracks the performance of an investment strategy that combines several potentially exploitable stock market premiums/anomalies. Normal update schedule is as required based on activity, and monthly to record performance.

About provides some background information on CXOadvisory.com. This section has no regular update schedule.

Latest Market Projection

Projected change in S&P 500 index as of the market close on 7/2/09...

For elaboration, go to
Stock Market Status.

Latest Blog Entry

July 2, 2009 - Regulatory Activity and Stock Returns

How does the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) level of spending relate to U.S. stock market returns? Are expenditures reactive, growing after bear markets? Does higher spending boost investor confidence and subsequent stock returns? To investigate, we relate SEC outlays and the S&P 500 Index by federal fiscal year (October through September). Using agency outlay data for fiscal years 1990 through 2010 (estimates for the final two years) and S&P 500 closes for fiscal years 1986 through 2008, we find that:

For the full blog, go to
Blog - Investing Notes.

Recent Guru Forecasts

7/1/09 - Gary Shilling: ...I don't see stocks overall sustaining the recent rally, so I'd sell equities in general… The carnage will persist as corporate profits continue to drop, rising unemployment and stock market losses devastate personal income and tax collections…

6/30/09 - Carl Futia: The e-minis are on the way into the 965-80 zone.

6/29/09 - John Hussman: ...modest overvaluation and mixed market action. ...over the course of the coming quarters, we will observe fresh economic difficulties, and eventually prices that fully reflect those difficulties...

6/28/09 - Marc Faber: Maybe we will have for two or three months now a reversal in expectations, where people suddenly realize that maybe the economy doesn't recover a lot and that deflationary pressures are still there. But if the S&P was to come down to 800 or 750, the Fed would probably increase its money printing activity. So, I kind of doubt that we'll see new lows.

6/25/09 - Comstock Partners: It is likely the recent rally has gone about as far as it can go without some proof that the economy can recover at a strong pace, and we think that this proof is not likely to come anytime soon.

6/22/09 - Price Headley: We remain in a bigger picture trading range, but we see a short-term bearish bias as we head into the heart of the summer months.

6/20/09 - Bill Cara: ...not a good time to be bullish in the equity markets.

6/19/09 - Carl Swenlin: ...since we are still in a secular bear market, we should consider that perhaps prices are starting to roll over in order for the bear market to resume. ...it is my opinion that medium-term correction has begun.

6/19/09 - Tim Wood: ...this false optimism and the lust for things to return to "normal" is going to cost the average investor dearly once this counter-trend move concludes.

6/15/09 - Steve Saville: ...in general the stocks of non-gold companies will have substantial downside risk until after the broad stock market becomes attractively valued.

6/12/09 - Don Luskin: If you had to say "in" or "out" on stocks now, I'd say "in." ...there's more upside than downside.

6/12/09 - Richard Moroney: Moroney currently rates the stock market's primary trend as being bearish...

6/12/09 - Richard Russell: ...Russell currently rates the stock market's primary trend as being down.

6/12/09 - Jack Schannep: "The bear market lows are behind us, the bull market is upon us, and an economic expansion is ahead of us. ...this is the 'sweet spot' in the stock market..."

6/8/09 - Dennis Slothower: Slothower is still in cash... "I see little to no economic signs to support this stock market advance. ...Much of this advance has been through a lot of intervention and manipulation... July could still be a precarious month for the stock market bulls, since we will see Q2 earnings reported through most of the month, and they are bound to be bad."

6/5/09 - Jim Cramer: ...when we look back at the beginning of the new bull market of 2009, ...Monday morning, March 16...was a seminal day. ...The moment of crisis has passed, the parallels to the Great Depression are gone...

6/5/09 (RSS feed date) - Ken Fisher: ...Wall Street marks down stocks before a Democrat is elected--and is pleasantly surprised afterward. ...I'm optimistic…

6/2/09 - Dan Sullivan: ...Sullivan recommended that subscribers mover from being only partially invested in equities to being fully invested. And in his most aggressive model portfolio, he actually moved to being 125% invested...